Options
PROG - FTD's vs T+2 vs Delta Hedging Calls ITM are more than likely already bought.
The calls when exercised are a transfer of shares and not always a new purchase of shares.
IMO the buying pressure on Monday led to MM hedging their position on PROG on Tuesday.
With added buying pressure it sent PROG up to north of $6. This level hasn't been seen since Feb 21.
Support was found and investors rallied, causing maybe some more hedging.
Bagholders from then, day traders, and profit takers got out.
This selling pressure caused, again, a MM hedging, this time they sold shares they previously bought. This is extreme resistance, MM know this.
Support was found and bulls rallied to cause (perhaps) some more MM hedging.
The large swings in price caused extra buying/selling pressure but bulls in control
Higher lows can be set above $4.00
Just because there were a high volume of ITM that expired on 11/19/21 we cannot assume that
all/most of these were either naked calls. MM go out and hedge when the price is running up by
buying shares. They can also sell those shares if the option falls OTM. If the itm calls are
exercised on then is more likely than not those shares are already owned and priced into
the stocks price. It is unwise IMO to assume the idea behind T+2 and more shares
being hedged for after expiry. That said, if the shares cannot be located then that's when it becomes an
FTD and could take 30+ days to settle.
#M Cup & Handle incomingGoing through my morning charting on trading view and i remember seeing #M on unusual whales pop up frequently and i glanced at the chart almost moved on to the next play and literally did a double look, but a cup is fully formed perfect on the one year one day and one year one week chart as you see in the image. It will be interesting to see if we can put a couple red days together this week to form the handle will be putting in some trades for mid Dec. to help myself with the Theta and to see if this comes to fruition it will be cheaper to pick up contracts on pull back days either way. Also their ecommerce business is also coming along form what i had read recently in either case this def makes for a play to go in your watch list, Fed is also supposed to make an announcement today which when that normally happens we have VERY RED days so i guess as they say the STARS ARE ALIGNING lol.
$PYPL | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 11/22Very ugly move for PayPal last week. I have since taken profits on the initial bounce we got from $201 to $215. I hold no options for the time being. Weakness from last week opens up the possibility to see $169-170 get tested before a major low is potentially put in. Be patient with this one and careful catching a falling knife with weakness present.
$OSTK | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 11/22Pretty uneventful week for this one last week. Plan stays the same, and looking for wave 2 buys below in the $98-103 region targeting $132 ultimately. Staying patient here.
UPST - has had an incredible runUPST has had quite the year producing those that took a chance on it some outstanding returns due to the fact it not only asses risk but can also manage returns with it's AI software which has led to some incredible earnings report from the GATE which does not make sense when you look at the price action why the price would fall so much, i am very bullish on this play long term as i see Ai being the future of just about everything i also made a video breakdown the company it's software and some of the price targets smart money has for them
$MU | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 11/22Swing execution plan still remains the same. Micron just decided it wanted $80+ first. Still seeing this initial impulse as a wave 1 and looking for a wave 2 below. Since wave 1 was larger than I expected, I have adjusted my count for waves 2,3,4 and 5 to accommodate this change. (much larger 5 waves up)
INTC - Possible Good Entry PointI recently made a video on #INTC as when looking at the chart showed very good patterns, 1 being every NOV -DEC has a consolidation period followed by a nice run usually ending in MARCH - APRIL with only one exception to that 2020 ( covid dip ) over the last 5 years, this year it has once again shown a consolidation period or dip in the price action actually getting very close to approaching a strong trend line which as acted as a support going as far back as 2013 in the chart with only 2 false breaks but for the most part holding up great. I will be looking to see if it does get closer to approaching that support line to enter a position with shares and options for MAR APR MAY expiration as that has also shown to repeat in the charts as being the point where the price starts to dip once again.
INTU#INTU has been constantly trading in this upward channel, breaking above it recently and with an awesome earnings report skyrocketed based on the chart one can expect it run back down to within the channel or if it builds strong momentum it will be interesting to see if it can keep going however my money is on a short term PUT option. check out www.UnusualWhales.com for guidance on the flow to see where money is going.
DHI Descending Channel Break for Long EntryDescription
DHI has been working this descending channel since hitting an ATH in May of this year, and off the earnings we may be seeing a break out.
A close > 94 triggers a long.
Using a call debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Will look to enter at EOD.
Call Debit Spread
Tentative Levels on Chart
SL is a daily close back in the channel.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
12/3 95C
SELL
12/3 105C
R/R & Break-evens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ITM due to limited strikes but also offers good downside protection.
The short call is placed at the ATH. If DHI runs to ATH and holds, I'll look to roll the spread up.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
AAPL hitting major resistanceWhats up guys. Haven't posted in a long while but looking to start posting more often again.
For those that haven't seen my ideas before I use very basic trend lines and Fib levels to determine entries and exits on large companies like TSLA, FB, AAPL, etc.
I then use options to maximize earning potential, typically looking at those expiring within the current week or the next.
I'll be looking to buy some puts today or monday on AAPL as a short term correction looks inevitable.