Options
INTC - Possible Good Entry PointI recently made a video on #INTC as when looking at the chart showed very good patterns, 1 being every NOV -DEC has a consolidation period followed by a nice run usually ending in MARCH - APRIL with only one exception to that 2020 ( covid dip ) over the last 5 years, this year it has once again shown a consolidation period or dip in the price action actually getting very close to approaching a strong trend line which as acted as a support going as far back as 2013 in the chart with only 2 false breaks but for the most part holding up great. I will be looking to see if it does get closer to approaching that support line to enter a position with shares and options for MAR APR MAY expiration as that has also shown to repeat in the charts as being the point where the price starts to dip once again.
INTU#INTU has been constantly trading in this upward channel, breaking above it recently and with an awesome earnings report skyrocketed based on the chart one can expect it run back down to within the channel or if it builds strong momentum it will be interesting to see if it can keep going however my money is on a short term PUT option. check out www.UnusualWhales.com for guidance on the flow to see where money is going.
DHI Descending Channel Break for Long EntryDescription
DHI has been working this descending channel since hitting an ATH in May of this year, and off the earnings we may be seeing a break out.
A close > 94 triggers a long.
Using a call debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Will look to enter at EOD.
Call Debit Spread
Tentative Levels on Chart
SL is a daily close back in the channel.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
12/3 95C
SELL
12/3 105C
R/R & Break-evens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ITM due to limited strikes but also offers good downside protection.
The short call is placed at the ATH. If DHI runs to ATH and holds, I'll look to roll the spread up.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
AAPL hitting major resistanceWhats up guys. Haven't posted in a long while but looking to start posting more often again.
For those that haven't seen my ideas before I use very basic trend lines and Fib levels to determine entries and exits on large companies like TSLA, FB, AAPL, etc.
I then use options to maximize earning potential, typically looking at those expiring within the current week or the next.
I'll be looking to buy some puts today or monday on AAPL as a short term correction looks inevitable.
Options flow predicting moves on Derivatives (Futures)Options have been and are an important instrument on the financial market for a trader trading Intraday Futures. Therefore, while exploring the mechanics of the option market over the last several months, as a result of work, indicators were created that load data from Quandl and then look for patterns that may herald a change of direction on the derivative market - in this case Futures Contracts. There are two main types of Options:
CALL - allow their owner to buy a given product in the future at a predetermined price (Strike Price)
PUT - allow you to sell this product at a predetermined price (Strike Price)
By observing the market volumes of both types of Options, we can observe the sentiment of investors. The key factors are which volume (call or put) prevail in the volume and the dynamics of the volume - what is the trend on volume, whether the difference between them increases or decreases. In addition, the Put / Call Ratio analysis allows you to confirm or negate the signals from the Option volume. The Ratio indicator behaves inversely to the price movement - in the case of a bearish sentiment, we expect the ratio to increase, and in the case of bullish sentiment - the indicator should decrease. If the Ratio follows the price in the same direction, it is an anomaly.
Of course, the mere observation of the Option volumes and the Put / Call ratio is not sufficient, as the Options Market is a much more complicated activity. It is worth including in the calculations such factors as Expiration Date, Bonus Amount, option type (In the Money, Out of Money or At the Money). Not each of the factors is equally important, therefore the key is additionally the appropriate selection of the weighting factors. For this purpose, due to the multitude of data, it is worth using Machine Learning, which I also do by saving the resulting data in a dataset in Quandl and displaying the data in TradingView using Pine Script.
Below are some additional examples from recent sessions on ES showing the predictive nature of the Option sentiment, often preceding major movements in the ES index (during the spot session):
First, from the left, the session from November 15 is shown and an opportunity to play Short. On the right, the session from November 16 and an opportunity to play the Long position this time.
Session from November 10, where we first got the Bull's signal, and at the top we got a warning signal of traffic reversal and the possibility of entering Short:
And one of my favorite moves on November 3:
BABA Weekly Options PlayDescription
BABA remains in extended downtrend that began 27OCT20, now has rejected new supply line established 20-22OCT.
Technical Indicators:
Fallen back below 50D EMA
Bearish MACD convergence
Supply line Rejection
Using A put debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Put Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL > 178
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/12 165P
SELL
11/12 140P
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ATM for higher chance of profit,
The short call is placed at last known support.
Earnings on 4NOV are a risk factor.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
$PYPL Fib Extension Looking at PYPL, it has broken and held above my 61.8% fib line (214.23). Next level to test would be 217.91 and then 221.60. There is also bullish divergence on the OBV on the 4 hour chart. I am long PYPL from here but will watch to see if it hits resistance at any of my further fib lines.
$OSTK | TRADE IDEAExpecting ONE LAST DIP before full send upside. You don't want to miss this, I expect the move to be very quick.