Options
Long 🟢 Descending Wedge on BCHUSDT (Bullish)Deep AI detected Descending Wedge.
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XRT Bullish inclined Naked Puts 29 Oct Expiry (Oct Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
Market is returning to a Bullish / Ranging state
With the Evergrande dip it seems we now have room for another bullish retracement
XRT had no major reaction to Evergrade dip and is rising with the market and is now about Evergrande. Pricing at 0.50 seems decent (11% from strike) -80, 60, strike 85
XRT has the best contract price of all that I am keen on
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
Previously XRT was making lower highs. This is somewhat bearish
It feels like I have no other options
The retracement could be a short lived reaction to the sudden dip. People reentering the market
Delta or inflation concerns could put a damper on retail driving drops
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
There is alot of optimising for the plan, this is a feeling I always feel before I enter a trade. The Opposite side has good simple arguments but feels dwarfed against the biased optimism
I am rejecting the larger concerns of delta or inflation and placing alot on the reaction of Evergrade. Using it as a focal point on market sentiment
Look For New Information
Two days ago 21 Sep - Retail sales showed a rebound despite Delta. +0.7% probably fueled by back to school shopping. Online purchases were the key driver of the sales.
Employment is down 0.2% and consumer prices increase by 0.3%
How Do I Feel Now
I think with the new information on the retail sales I feel more confident but still slightly concerned and aware about the previous lower highs
Sold 80 PUTS @ 0.47 Strike 85
% to Strike is 10.4% from entry
ATR percentile is low
Max Gain: est $3760
Total BP Block: 75K
ATVI Bearish inclined Naked Calls 29 Oct Expiry (Oct Track 1)I just realised I forgot to enter this trade. My thoughts below was written 28 Sep
Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
Forced, Because I need to hit the 5% target
I don't have much options, this feels risky. I need to spend time coming up with proper ideas.
I feel lazy and that I need to be serious since I am doing this full time
ATVI looking at it as it is going down. There is a recent pull back but it is still bearish.
ATVI has been moving the opposite of the Index or the VXX. It was also impacted by Evergrande's drop. But only recovered slightly with the market bounced
If anything I see ATVI ranging near term
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
Do I need this trade? Since you feel it is forced and that you did not put in effort
What if it rebounds up? Their last earnings was higher than the estimates
Christmas is coming, this can boast interest in the stock
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
The Other Side, also feels convinced that ATVI is bearish
The key issue feels like no prep was done and it is a forced trade. I am not being professional
Other Competitors in this space like EA have similar down trends (Feels like a sector drop)
Look For New Information
Recently ATVI has negative news on the workplace culture and discrimination
How Do I Feel Now
This is not a company that will fail entirely near term due to it's strong gaming titles that has a strong following.
This is probably the last time I can/should trade this bearish move
Trade Specs
Sold 80 CALLS @ 0.50 Strike 84
% to Strike is 8.9%
ATR % is slightly on the high side at 60%
Max Gain: est $4000
RVLV Bearish inclined Naked Calls 12 Nov Expiry (Nov Track 2)VolOp Launch
This is the first trade where I adjust my position sizing to account for the rising volatility in a ranging market that seem to have deeper drops whenever there are issues.
I call this stance in my plan "VolOp" and while it results in a 1% drop in my monthly target. It should weather my contracts better. This current adjustment is mainly based on YTD trades and increases my margin amount to 114k
Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought - RVLV
Bearish inclined position for RVLV
Overall Market is Ranging with negative news or concerns moving the market deeper vs positive news.
The discretionary retail sector seems tied to major macro issues like supply chain and the increasing cost of importing goods
RVLV is in a ranging pattern now. I have selected it as it is part of XRT holdings. I would prefer to enter XRT as it covers more companies. However it's options prices are terrible
RVLV is the right price and previously on 5 Aug, while it had shown a solid earnings report. The company's conservative positioning caused a huge -24% drop. This shows in my opinion a lack of commitment and belief in the company's success and performance
I Feel
I was very happy when I spotted this trade. I think this is a good strategy to take. Looking at companies that are aligned to the overall movement of the ETF. Especially when the ETF has terrible prices
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
RVLV has over exceeded earnings expectations for the part 3 quarters. This aligned with market optimism could fuel a bullish rush
While it is ranging. The price movement has generally been higher lows
12 Oct News - Net sales increased 60% year-over-year to $228 million (and 41% over Q2 2019), while diluted net profit more than doubled compared to the year-ago period to $0.42 per share.
12 Oct News - Domestic net sales were up 59% and international net sales increased 63%. Gross margin increased 517 basis points to 55.6%, benefitting from healthy inventory levels and consumer demand dynamics. Also helping were higher sales at full-price and a decrease in “the depth of markdowns.”
Strangely despite the positive news RVLV hardly moved
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
The current price movement is ranging. with current highs not exceeding previous highs
Any position needs to be outside of the range
Look For New Information
I found very strong bullish news on the company and it's business
12 Oct News - Net sales increased 60% year-over-year to $228 million (and 41% over Q2 2019), while diluted net profit more than doubled compared to the year-ago period to $0.42 per share. (I also pasted this on the Other Side)
12 Oct News - Domestic net sales were up 59% and international net sales increased 63%. Gross margin increased 517 basis points to 55.6%, benefitting from healthy inventory levels and consumer demand dynamics. Also helping were higher sales at full-price and a decrease in “the depth of markdowns.”(I also pasted this on the Other Side)
How Do I Feel Now
I'm ready and confident to press the trigger - Sell calls!
Trade Specs
Sold 68 CALLS @ 0.8 Strike 90
% to Strike 29.48%
ATR % IS AROUND 47%
BP used 47K
Max Gain: est $5440
LYFT Wedge Break Weekly Options PlayDescription
LYFT has been working this wedge since FEB of this year, and now we're starting to see a breakout to the upside.
A close > 53.5 triggers a long.
Using A call debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Call Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL is a daily close back in the wedge.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/12 55C
SELL
11/12 62C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ATM for higher chance of profit,
The short call is placed at the previous peak in the wedge.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
$NFLX Trend and Fibonacci Extension $NFLX has been trading in this range on the 4 hour chart for over a month. OBV looks good and MACD looks like its about to turn bullish. the 5 and 9 mas seem to be holding it up as well. If it can break my fib level at 661.91 tomorrow, I believe it can get to or near the next level at 673.11. If it can break my fib level, I will take a high risk daytrade on the $665 calls expiration 11/12. This could also be a good opportunity to take a longer position if the market is bullish.
ATH next move?Massive run on this name,
ER tomorrow, so not sure what is going to come out of this.
However, nice flag above 89.00 should trigger a new run to ATH
$LLY Bullish Pennant, Unusual Options Activity$LLY Bullish Pennant, Unusual Options Activity
$360M of January'22 deep in-the-money calls bought today (8-9x open interest)
On watch for a daily close outside the pennant (topside).
Near term target: $300-$310 range possible by early December
Note: This is NOT investment advice.
Bullish Hammer at PCZ of Gartley with Hidden Bullish DivergencePTON Had a crazy dump day the other day and lots of v9olume sold out of the stock we then spent a few days at the 78.6% retrace and we now seem to be getting a reaction, so long as we close the day like this, this should be a good bullish signal to enter. i will buy some shares and some calls here.
RBLX ATH Break Long Entry Weekly Options Play.Description
RBLX had an unexpected earnings beat and gapped up ~30% AH. A break and hold over 100.68 will mean supply is exhausted and trigger a long.
A close > 100.68 triggers a long.
Using Call Debit Spread, because profit is always limited by time.
Will look to enter at EOD.
Call Debit Spread
Tentative Levels on Chart
SL is a daily close < 100.68.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/26 110C
SELL
11/26 125C
R/R & Break-evens vary on fill.
Long Call is placed at 110 for reasonable debit on position.
Short Call is placed at highest strike expiring EOM.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose