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#Nifty50 Market Update: A Week of Weakness and What Lies Ahead This week, Nifty closed at 23,203, down by 228 points from the previous week's close. It touched a high of 23,391 and a low of 23,047, reflecting a volatile yet cautious market sentiment. The candlestick pattern for the week is indicative of weak market sentiment, signaling growing bearish pressure. As highlighted last week, the market saw a bounce used by institutional players to offload their positions, leading to a sharp pullback. The Nifty was confined within the range of 23,950 to 22,900, as anticipated. Looking ahead, I expect Nifty to continue oscillating between 23,750 and 22,700 in the coming week. From a monthly perspective, the market remains in a selling phase, and until either the monthly or weekly timeframes shift into the buying zone, or Nifty tests key support levels near 22,400/22,300, the bears will likely maintain control. S&P500 Update: Recovery with Caution Over in the US, the S&P 500 has bounced back from the lows of 5,773 and closed just below the critical Fibonacci resistance level of 6,013. If the index manages to stay above 6,013 next week, we could see it testing higher resistance levels around 6,100. However, expect potential selling pressure to kick in on Monday, and if the index dips below 5,900, it could test key support levels at 5,821, 5,773, or even 5,700. Bottom Line: Brace for Volatility Ahead In conclusion, selling pressure is expected to persist in the markets for the time being. Traders should prepare for a bumpy ride as we navigate through these volatile conditions. Stay alert, manage risk, and keep an eye on critical support and resistance levels.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by ssudhirsharma11
#Nifty50 What Lies Ahead for Nifty & S&p500,13-17th Jan 2025The Nifty Index experienced a sharp decline this week, closing at 23,431, a significant 570 points below the previous week's close. While the index reached a high of 24,089, it ultimately succumbed to selling pressure, finding support at 23,344. As forecasted, the Nifty traded within the predicted range of 24,500 to 23,300. For the upcoming week, I anticipate the index to remain confined within a range of 23,950 to 22,900 . Given the prevailing bearish sentiment, a potential short-term bounce could unfold next week to lure in unsuspecting buyers before a renewed downward move. Historically, whenever the Nifty has breached the support of the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (WEMA50), it has typically undergone a 5-6% correction. Based on the current level of 23,431, the Nifty may find crucial support near the 22,200-22,400 zone. Turning to the US markets, the S&P 500 found support at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA100) level of 5,817 and closed at 5,827. The upcoming week will be pivotal. If the S&P 500 successfully defends the 5,807 low, a potential rally towards the 5,926-5,944 range could materialize. However, a weekly close below the 5,800 mark would signal a significant bearish turn for global markets, potentially triggering a deeper correction towards the 5,637 or even 5,504 levels. Wishing readers a very happy Lohri and Makar Sakranti.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by ssudhirsharma11
#nifty50 What Lies Ahead for Nifty & S&p500, 6-10th Jan 2025The Nifty Index this week staged a rally, closing at 24,004, a 200-point surge from the previous week. This bullish move, driven by a classic "W" pattern as predicted, saw highs of 24,226 and lows of 23,460. However, profit-taking by large players triggered a decline, confining the index within my anticipated range of 24,300-23,400. For the upcoming week, I expect a trading range of 24,500-23,400 . A breach below 23,400 could find support at the 23,200-23,300 zone. A weekly close below this level would be a significant bearish signal, potentially triggering further selling pressure towards the 22,250 level. Conversely, a sustained move above 24,770 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, though this scenario currently appears challenging. The S&P 500 also exhibited resilience this week, closing at 5,942 despite breaching the crucial support of 5,850. This formed a long-legged candle, indicating strong demand at lower levels. To reignite its upward momentum, the S&P 500 needs to close consecutively above 6,093. This bullish confirmation could propel it towards 6,142, 6,225, and even 6,376, providing a much-needed boost to global markets
NSE:NIFTYShort
by ssudhirsharma11
Nifty Index about to witness Quarterly Bearish Engulfing4 and a half years from April 2020, it has been a euphoric ride for India's Nifty and Sensex. If prices remain more or less unchanged by New Year's Eve, we're about to witness a once in 5 year event on the charts. A "quarterly bearish engulfing" at all time highs. In simpler terms, quarterly prices closing below the lowest price of previous quarter. What has happened in the past when this happened? This happened last in 2020 (the deep red pandemic candle) - where 15 quarters or nearly 4 years of gain was wiped out in a single quarter. Before that, it happened in 2015 - where it took 3 quarters to wipe out 4 quarters or 1 year worth of gain. (Indicating more of a systemic sell-off, than a knee-jerk news based panic. Something similar is happening now, after a long long time.) 2015, then 2020, and now 2024-25. For those who understand time cycles in nature and its inevitable influence on our nature, and thus the markets, you'd appreciate this is no co-incidence. There is no reason to panic, as this, just like any other event, presents an opportunity to grow wealth. Before you read further, I intend to keep this idea beginner friendly on how to potentially benefit from this opportunity. It can form a base for you to navigate your personal finance journey further. Intermediate and advanced traders/investors may benefit from my other (future) posts. Kindly note that this published note is only my opinion, solely for educational purposes, and not investment advice. Through the remainder of this piece, I will waltz you through the most probable outcomes and the possible decisions one may take, all assuming that you're relatively new to witnessing a systematic sell-offs. Understanding the logic of a bearish engulfing pattern: First - What a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on a quarterly time frame means is that for 1 whole quarter, there was a net gain (July-Sept2024 = +7.5%) and the lowest price was 23893.7; whilst immediately for next 1 whole quarter (Oct- 30Dec2024 = -8.49%) we can see a net loss. Not only do we see a net loss, but also most importantly, we see quarter price "closing" lower than the "lowest" price of previous quarter . This is powerful information as it indicates that buyers have "failed to remain in strength" even at the lowest price of the previous quarter (Understand that the lowest price of previous quarter is where the buyers were the most powerful in that quarter, that is why it was the "lowest" price of that quarter because the price went up from there). For reference, see the feature image of this post again. What does this mean for the next few weeks/months/quarters: (The most probably outcomes) 1) Normally, a bearish engulfing pattern at the top of the charts indicates end of an existing up-trend. When this happens in a higher time frame (weekly/monthly/quarterly), it is more reliable. 2) End of an existing up-trend indicates beginning of a new opposite trend. An opposite trend can either be sideways or downside. This depends on further reaction from market forces in the coming days. We can see that after the pandemic quarterly crash, we had no opposite trend, in fact, there was an immediate rebound. This was an exception as pandemic market crash was a 1 time panic-led sell-off rather than a systemic sell off (which is more sustainable time-wise). 3) We are highly likely in a systemic sell off now, if this quarter's low is taken out in January. This is the highest likely scenario after a 4.5 years of euphoric uptrend in the market. How to benefit in the following weeks/months: The simplest way with minimal to moderate time investment, is to begin SIP in fundamentally strong "value" stocks, or the index itself, or both - in a "pyramid" fashion. Once you select the stocks, pyramiding your investment amount - that is, starting small at current levels and scaling up your investment as you get better prices when Nifty (or your cherry picked stocks) fall further. A simple way to apply it is to buy whenever price is near the Moving Averages (MA) of 55 weeks, 89 weeks and 233 weeks - as the index continues in a down trend in the following weeks/months. You can plot these on Tradingview with ease. Remember to plot on weekly time frame. Buy lower multiples at 55 MA, higher at 89 MA and even higher at 233 MA. This is a simple, more optimised way of buying the index fund which can help you get higher ROI as compared to someone making SIP on a fixed date every month. This is because your average buy price will be lower than someone buying the same quantity at random prices every month. Yet another way is to learn the skill of selling index call options by hedging them. Even though this is a slightly advance way of generating extra income, it is great to learn in downtrending markets - as you will be able to generate profits from a decline in the price of index (remember it is a lot more difficult to generate profits from individual stocks and investments in a broader down-trending market). A realistic expectation for beginners can be making 1-3% a month with this technique (average annualised) - thus helping offset the loss in the existing stocks/MF portfolio. If this sounds difficult, yet another way is assessing the hygiene of your portfolio and rejig the holdings if needed. Without proper knowledge, it is best to let a qualified financial advisor/expert review your holdings/portfolio and see if they want to re-shuffle the portfolio. This could even mean reducing exposure to equity for a period of 1 year, and increase exposure to debt funds or other fixed income avenues, or simply sitting on some % cash to buy at a later, better value. Whilst this sounds too much work, remember that a mere 4-5% extra gain for the entire year, every year, compounds to a large number over the years. So entrusting a reliable financial advisor to do this could be worth your time and resources. Now is a good time to do that. Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion and is only for educational purposes. Please consult your financial advisor before making any decision. Stock Market investments are subject to market risk. Past performances are no guarantee of future returns. This content above is solely for educational purposes only and to provide information and is not intended to give any advice. Information shared is personal opinions only. Wherever any stock or mutual fund name is mentioned, this is only for educational and informational purposes. Share market and investment can be risky, please take professional advice before making any decision.
NSE:NIFTY
by PriyadarshiDesai
#Nifty50 Outlook for upcoming week 30-3rd Jan 2025The Nifty roared this week, gaining a solid 226 points, closing at a strong 23813! It reached a peak of 23938 before dipping to 23647. As predicted, the Nifty stayed within the 24100-23000 range, forming an interesting inside candle pattern. Excitingly, a bullish "W" pattern has emerged on the weekly chart! If the Nifty can hold above the crucial 23900 level next week, we could see it trading between 24300 and 23400 . However, while a bounce is expected, the bearish Monthly chart might tempt big players to unload their positions. Stay alert! Across the pond, the S&P500 took a 2.5% hit, closing at 5970 after reaching a high of 6049. The 5870-5850 support zone is critical. A breach could trigger a faster selloff, potentially testing the 5637/5551 support levels. For an upward move, the S&P500 needs to conquer 6050, paving the way for resistance levels at 6094/6142/6225. Bottom line: Use any bounce next week as an opportunity to lock in profits. Stay informed and trade wisely!" Wishing everyone a very happy & prosperous New Year.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
Risk-Managed Option Selling Strategy: Nifty50 23900 CallMarket Outlook: I hold a highly bearish view on the Nifty50 23900 Call Option with an expiry date of 26th December 2024. This outlook is based on a detailed analysis of market trends and proprietary indicators. Entry and Stop-Loss Levels: Entry Level: Ready to sell the 23900 Call option at or above ₹142.40. Stop-Loss: Maintain a strict stop-loss at ₹202.10 to manage risk effectively. Additional Criteria: This strategy involves a specific criterion that is integral to trade execution but will not be disclosed openly. Risk Management: This strategy is designed with a focus on controlling potential losses through predefined stop-loss levels. Option selling involves substantial risk, including the possibility of unlimited losses. Therefore, ensure appropriate margin and capital allocation based on individual risk tolerance. Disclaimer: This strategy is shared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Options trading involves high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research or consult a certified financial advisor before executing trades. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by IndexAce
#NIfty50 Outlook for upcoming week 9-13th Dec, Nifty Rallies, Bu The Nifty 50 index concluded the week on a high note, closing at 24,677, a significant 550-point surge from the previous week. The index oscillated wildly, touching a high of 24,857 and a low of 24,008. As predicted, the index faced selling pressure around the 25,000 level, a critical resistance zone that triggered a downward trend in late October. For the upcoming week, the Nifty is expected to trade within a range of 24,100 to 25,000. A sustained break above 25,000 could propel the index towards 25,250. However, a pullback to retest support levels is likely before the next upward move. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index gained 1% to close at 6,090. Key resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6,142 and 6,225, while support levels are 6,013 and 5,963.let's see if US market this week also support world market or not.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
#Nifty50 analysis for the upcoming week 25-29th Nov 2024Nifty Rallies, but Caution Prevails The Nifty 50 index concluded the week at 23,907, a robust 375 points higher than the previous week's close. It touched a high of 23,956 and a low of 23,263, staying within the predicted range of 24,000-23,100. A bullish hammer candle formation on the weekly chart, supported by the 50-Week Exponential Moving Average (WEMA), indicates potential upside momentum. However, the elevated India VIX suggests market volatility may persist. For the upcoming week, the Nifty is expected to trade between 24,500 and 23,300 . A breach of these levels could trigger significant price movements. The 23,263 level now acts as a crucial support zone. The BJP's victory in Maharashtra is likely to provide a positive start to the next week, but the extent of its impact remains uncertain. Global Markets Outlook The S&P 500 index closed at 5,969, up approximately 100 points from the previous week. Despite reaching a high of 5,972, it failed to breach the crucial Fibonacci level of 6,013. A decisive close above this level could open the door to further gains, targeting 6,142, 6,225, and 6,376. This positive sentiment could spill over to global markets, including India. Until then, the absence of negative news in the US market can be viewed as a bullish indicator.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ssudhirsharma11
NIfty50 outlook for upcoming week 16-20th Sept 2024#nifty50 Stellar Climb: The Nifty index has reached a new all-time high weekly close of 25,356, surpassing its previous peak of 25,433. Despite a bearish engulfing candle last week, the Nifty managed to rebound, thanks to a strong performance in the US market. As predicted, the index remained within the anticipated range of 25,500 to 24,150. Looking Ahead: For the coming week, I expect the Nifty to remain within the range of 25,810 to 24,750 . If the index can successfully break above the crucial Fibonacci level of 25,810 , it could potentially test 25,965 , although this may be challenging. However, below 24,750, the DEMA50 support level at 24,624 could act as a strong demand zone. Global Market Outlook: The S&P 500 rallied this week, driven by better-than-expected inflation data and expectations of interest rate cuts. The index closed at 5,626, just below the important Fibonacci level of 5,637. On a weekly timeframe, the S&P 500 is showing signs of forming a W pattern. If it can close above 5,637 for consecutive days, it could open the door to a significant uptrend, targeting 5,806, 5,900, and even 6,005. Such a move could propel the global market, including India's Nifty, towards new all-time high levels of 25,800 or 25,950. However, if the S&P 500 falls below 5,535, there could be selling pressure, leading to potential support levels at 5,493, 5,390, and 5,270.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ssudhirsharma11
#nifty50 analysis for next week 9th Sept-13th septThe Indian stock market experienced a significant downturn last week, with the Nifty 50 closing at 24,852, a substantial 400 points below the previous week's close. Despite reaching a weekly high of 25,333, the index ultimately settled within its expected range of 25,850 to 24,600. Looking ahead, a bearish outlook prevails for the coming week. The Nifty is anticipated to trade within a range of 25,500 to 24,150. A bearish engulfing candle formation suggests continued selling pressure on Monday and Tuesday. However, a potential bounce to 25,000 on Wednesday or Thursday could offer bears an opportunity to initiate fresh short positions. A daily close above 25,080 would be a positive sign for bulls, while a close below 24,486 (DEMA50) could lead to further declines, potentially opening the gates to 24,150, 24,000, or 23,840 (DEMA100). Globally, the S&P 500's decline of 240 points from the previous week's close triggered selling across various markets, including India. The 5,380 support level (DEMA50) is crucial for the S&P 500. A break below this level could result in a 3.5-4% correction, potentially testing the 5,200-5,170 support zone, which would likely exert further pressure on global markets.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
SPOT Spotify Technology Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the Head and Shoulders bearish chart pattern on SPOT: nor bought calls before the previous earnings: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SPOT Spotify Technology prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 290usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2024-8-16, for a premium of approximately $15.95. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NYSE:SPOTShort
by TopgOptions
PM Philip Morris International Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on PM: nor sold the top: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PM Philip Morris International prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 92.50usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2025-1-17, for a premium of approximately $5.80. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NYSE:PMShort
by TopgOptions