Get started

Optionsplay

AAPL Ascending Intermediate Trend Break Bear Market PlayDescription AAPL has had a nice run up following the upside break of its intermediate bear trendline (descending 2pt red line) on 24 JUN, forming its new intermediate upside trend (ascending 2pt green line) all the way up to its Descending Major Bear Trend (descending 3pt line) cemented on 30MAR. This week and the next will certainly end with a clearer picture for direction moving forward, but given current market conditions it is more likely that it should be down. SPY and DIA have seen similar intermediate moves, but have not made it to their descending major trend lines yet meaning a reversal is still far from being signaled, and this week will show how the IXIC behaves after having breached it on 10 AUG. It is still early in the Bear Market - geopolitical and economic risks have not cooled substantially to merit a major reversal in trend. Real inversion of the Yield Curve has only just occurred on 13 JUL and the trends are in for further inversion moving forward. Technical Indicators to signal the entry: Daily close below the intermediate trend accompanied by significant volume spike Major Trend Line rejection Downside break of the 168 - 171 Supply/Demand Zone Bear cross on MACD Technical Risk Factors: Golden Cross on 50/200 EMA Although a golden cross is usually considered a strong reversal signal, I am discounting this technical risk factor due to the 200 EMA remaining relatively flat in the early bear market. VIX downside break of Major Ascending Trendline on 4 AUG IXIC established over Major Bear Descending Trendline There is no real price target here as this is basically a trend trade - hence a longer dated Put - but there are take profit targets @ 156.5 , 137 & 130 . If all targets were met, advise a runner and potentially a roll down and out prior to expiration. Using a Long ITM Put here in order to: achieve a higher delta, maintain a conservative position, get long volatility while the VIX is low, and leave the downside open in case of a long, swift fall. Long Put Levels on Chart SL: 177.5 PT: Down the trend TP: 156.5, 137 & 130 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 10/21 180P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by BarnardR
XLE Energy Sector approaching ATH. Options play with CushionWith energy prices continuing their rise due to global shortages and war, XLE has climbed over 50% YTD. The potential upside to all-time highs, along with the intact trend since March of 2020 are enticing. It might be harder to take on a position after a 100% YoY increase and not feel like its FOMO. So, I look for options to enter with a bullish outlook but protect from downside volatility. Using a custom options strategy we can build in a 23% cushion ($65.38) and still capture all the upside to the ceiling ($89.13). Using this strategy, it’s possible to make up to 9% ( 15% annualized ). Start to lose only if XLE falls by more than 22% to below $63.58 as of 03/31/2023 . Option Order Buy 1 $82 call Sell 1 $87 call Sell 1 $64 put Exp 3/31/23 Required to invest: $6,362.98
AMEX:XLELong
by oliveinvest
MRNA Support Bounce Weekly Option PlayDescription Today saw MRNA performing a high-volume bounce from the 224 support line which initiated the start of what appears to be a rough Descending Triangle. I am bearish on MRNA for the longer term, but expect this upward move to continue throughout the week, along with the rest of the indexes that have seen a strong bounce today. At the least, I am expecting a move up to touch the converging 50/200D EMA lines, and looking for a max expected move in the time frame of one week up to the higher strike @ 257.5 to take profits. If the move is strong enough, we will let the position trade late into Friday to allow the spread to widen out to max profit potential, but I am willing to close the position early. Using a call credit spread to reduce the price and due to expectations of an IV decrease throughout the week. Call Credit Spread Levels on Chart SL: 224 PT : 257.5 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 1/14 235C SELL 1/14 257.5C R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. If you can afford it, and have the conviction in the direction of MRNA, I would opt for a Call in conjunction with a Put Credit Spread. This will allow you realize profits much sooner in the case of a meteoric rise such as the one that occurred from 18 - 26 November. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NASDAQ:MRNALong
by BarnardR
TWTR Symmetrical Triangle Break Weekly Options PlayDescription TWTR has broken out of a Symmetrical Triangle consolidation pattern following the previous breakout of the large broadening pattern circled in yellow and breaking down its major trendline (3pt up-slanting blue line). Symmetrical Triangles are a congestion pattern representing indecision and typically forming in an already established trend before a further move in the direction that preceded the pattern. Here we see a large spike in volume at the beginning of the pattern, followed by descending volume throughout, and eventually the large spike in volume on the breakout, beyond the safe 3% margin, on 4JAN making a textbook "coil". An additional technical indicator is the MACD convergence. The resulting price move implied by the pattern is equal to price move that preceded the pattern. Here I am using the long candles on 10NOV following the breakout of the broadening pattern as the starting point, giving a pattern-implied price move down to ~32. Our price target will be more conservative @ 34 due to the expiration of the position. Using a Long Put to remain long volatility and short stock. Long Put Levels on Chart SL is a daily close back in the triangle PT : 34 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 2/4 40P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:TWTRShort
by BarnardR
3
AAPL Rising Wedge Break Weekly Options PlayDescription AAPL has broken out of an Ascending Wedge to the downside following an ATH just over 182. Ascending Wedges are at most intermediate in their trend implication and represent a general petering out of investment interest as the formation progresses and the stock becomes more expensive. Wedges typically take at least 3 weeks to form, otherwise they would be classified as a pennant. Also, prices usually travel 2/3 of the way through the formation. These are two technical facts we see here when using the bounce on 26NOV to 02DEC as the start of the pattern. The resulting price move implied by the pattern is equal to at least an entire retracement of ground covered by the formation of the Ascending Wedge, to 156.75. Using a Long Put combined with a Call Credit Spread here in lieu of a Put Debit Spread The reason for this is to decrease the overall debit of the position, but also leave profit potential open to the downside in the case of a long or swift fall accompanied by a sharp increase in IV. Long Put Levels on Chart Reevaluation: 177.5 PT : 159 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 2/4 40P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by BarnardR
NKE Potential Double Top - What's Next?Description NKE has now rejected the 175 level for the third time, now I am tracking this Descending Triangle consolidation pattern. This could be a Double-Top pattern in the making, although the Double-Top is notoriously difficult to track, and nearly never confirmed until long after is has finished it's formation. Evidence indicative of the usual Double Top: Two tops at approximately the same level, but more than a month apart Somewhat less activity on the second advance than the first Dull or irregular, rounding-type of recession between them It is noted that should a small H&S or descending triangle occur at the second top, long commitments should be protected with a tight stop, or switched to a more promising chart picture. In NKE's chart, we see two Tops at approximately the same level (within 3%), and approximately 3 months apart, which is a strong indication that this is not a normal congestion or consolidation pattern. Slightly more activity can be seen on the second advance than the first, and there is distinctly low activity throughout the entire pattern. The recession between the tops marks one of the only increases in activity in the entire pattern, taking place perfectly at the last known resistance around 145, and marked with a large gap down following the earnings report on 23SEP. At the second peak, NKE is currently undergoing some type of consolidation that appears to be a descending triangle with irregular volume. What, in picture, appears to be a "Descending Triangle" has highly irregular volume throughout and could potentially be portrayed as a Falling Wedge. The Descending Triangle has bearish implications, while the Falling Wedge has bullish implications. Although the volume displayed is not conducive to either formation, it could be explained by high volatility in the indexes. With these things in mind, I believe the best position to put on is a 3-month Straddle. The options market right now is implying about a 14% move in either direction in the next 3 months, so any expiration beyond 146 or 194 would be profitable in that time period, with the last potential support being at 143 for the downside, and all-time highs to the upside. I, however, will be putting on a directional play based off of where I think the indexes are heading: Long Put Levels on Chart SL > 175 PT : 150 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 01/07/22 155P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. This put generates a good breakeven in advance of the 145 support if held until expiration. If you would like me to build the Straddle or build a Strangle, just ask. The Strangle will create a cheaper position, but push the breakevens further away from the current stock price. As always, time will tell Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:NKEShort
by BarnardR
TSLA Descending Triangle Break Weekly Options PlayDescription This idea originates from a different idea in which I interpreted the chart as a Symmetrical Triangle. I believe this interpretation was incorrect due to the consideration I put on the beginning of the gap up into the pattern. The opening price of the first candle following the gap is a technically irrelevant fact, unlike the support found after TSLA falls from the high, in this case the ATH, where it bounced three additional times, each time producing a lower high (a Descending Triangle). The Descending Triangle is bearish in purport, displaying a lower demand zone, and a descending liquidation zone, representing a growing overhead supply vs a stationary demand zone, until the sellers become stronger than the buyers (or buyers reverse), overtaking the lower boundary. Historically speaking, it is common for the lower boundary of the preceding pattern to become a new resistance, where once-buyers will be happy to liquidate, having been "made whole". The price target implied by the pattern is between 320 and 670 or less than 670. As a take from contrarian traders, such as Brent Donnelly, there is an application of the Magazine Cover Bias today, as TSLA CEO, Elon Musk, has been chosen as "Person of the Year" in time magazine. This is very reminiscent of 99', when AMZN CEO, Jeff Bezos, was chosen as "Person of the Year", shortly before the beginning of AMZN's two-year bear market. (Related idea linked) Using long puts to maintain a positive vega ahead of FOMC this week. Long Put Levels on Chart SL > 1000 PT : 700 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/31 850P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. The price target set with the idea is higher than the pattern implied price target due to the expiration of the position. This position is updated in the linked Related Idea, where there is a better explanation of alternate short strategies. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by BarnardR
TSLA Symmetrical Triangle Break Weekly Options PlayDescription TSLA Began the formation of this Symmetrical Triangle after achieving an ATH @ 1243.49. The Symmetrical Triangle is a common congestion pattern, typically indicative of continuations, accompanied by descending volume (on chart) and a heavy volume on the breakout. My point of contention with this pattern is okay volume on the breakout. It is only slightly above average when calculated on a 60 day period, or slightly below on a 30 day period. Although there is generally no advance indication of breakout direction, an indication can be what other stocks are doing - making bearish breaks through major trendlines and support levels since FEB - MAR of this year. The resulting price move implied by the pattern is equal to price move that preceded the pattern. So depending on where the measurement starts, the breakout, once confirmed, implies a 330 point minimum to a 680 point maximum move to the downside. Intermediate price targets: 900, 775 and throwbacks to the triangle's apex are common @ ~1100. My intermediate price targets are above the pattern-implied price targets due to the expiration of the position. Long Put Levels on Chart SL is a daily close back in the triangle PT : 900 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/23 900P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. The price target is the support at 900, which is above the break-even at expiration, so the primary objective of the position is to capitalize on a quick downward move in TSLA stock price and profit on the increase in time value premium. For those who didn't short @ 1200: An ATM, further dated Long Put would serve the objective of the position better if it is within your risk tolerance. Or an ATM synthetic short if you have the ability to sell naked options. And without the ability to short effectively or sell naked options, an ITM put would serve best, if within your risk tolerance. If you want me to build these positions, just ask. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by BarnardR
27
DHI ATH Break Weekly Options PlayDescription DHI's primary bull trend remains well-intact and has raced up after entering it's corrective intermediate down-trend beginning with setting its previous ATH in May. This is essentially a continuation play from the linked idea, when we played the break in the Descending Trend Channel, and gave the criteria for a new entry when the target was reached. Today's break and close over its previous ATH close indicates that supply is exhausted and DHI is primed to make new ATHs. Using Long Calls so as not to cap gains. Long Call Levels on Chart SL < 104.45 PT : No price target set for the ATH, looking for a sharp move and then to roll a percentage of profits to more OTM calls. *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/17 106C R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:DHILong
by BarnardR
4
Lyft Downside Wedge Break Weekly Options PlayDescription Been watching this wedge in Lyft, and it caught my attention when it broke to the upside on 05NOV, trade here The throwback into the pattern following the breakout increases my ease with this short position. The trigger was a break and hold below 46, which occured yesterday. Today LYFT went to retake the accumulation line but failed, leading to this starter short position. I will look to add to this position on a decisive break away from the accumulation line of the wedge. Using Long Puts Long Put Levels on Chart SL is a daily close over 46. Target price is the demand zone at 38 developed in NOV - DEC 20'. *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/23 40P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. The placement of the long put is ~halfway between the current price and the target price for balance of chance of profit at expiration and R/R. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NASDAQ:LYFTShort
by BarnardR
CWEB Weekly Options PlayDescription CWEB has been working it down from its ATH since FEB of this year, and has gotten stopped up in the congestion pattern. I have been watching it to pick a direction to enter a position and it looks like it finally has broken to the downside. I have been using Long Puts in all my short positions because I do not want to cap my downside potential to leave it open for fat tail scenarios in the current market environment. Call Debit Spread Levels on Chart SL > 17.5 This level marks an all-time low in the security. *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/17 16P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. The long call is placed ATM for highest chance of profit at expiration. 12/17 is all I'm willing to go with for expiration because I do not want to pay the extra premium to push it out to January. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
AMEX:CWEBShort
by BarnardR
BA Descending Triangle Weekly Options PlayDescription BA has been working this Descending Triangle from its post-covid crash high around 278. There was one false breakout to the upside on 15NOV, which I traded, related idea linked. Descending Triangles are bearish in nature, and the implied move carries BA down to 137. Intermediate supports are at 194, 179 and eventually 144.5. The immense amount of short triggers I am getting in this market is alarming, indicating institutional liquidation has been going on since around JAN - FEB. The "new strain scare" from last Friday shows a perfect of example of investors looking for excuses to sell, not reasons. In reality, the market is not worth its current valuation. Good News = Rising rates = bad for earnings = bad for stock market And bad news is just bad news. Long Put Levels on Chart SL > 205.8 PT : 179 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/31 180P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. The long put is placed at a reasonable midpoint between current stock price and eventual price target utilizing available strikes. I do not expect BA to reach this price target in a month. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:BAShort
by BarnardR
4
UBER Weekly Options PlayDescription UBER began its bear market after the break in the major trendline July. It has now broken through major support established from the ascending triangle that was built in MAR - NOV timeframe of 20' and was also tested in SEP of 21'. The break through 38 is the signal for the entry, and also the stop loss for the position. Using long puts to leave the downside open. The level of the VIX right now is my primary concern in opening long option positions. I consider all of my positions risky, and manage risk accordingly. Long Put Levels on Chart SL > 38 PT : 33* *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/17 34P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. *At 33 I will take profits, and roll to OTM puts. The Long put is placed OTM for higher profit percentage, but before the target price for max chance of success by expiration. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:UBERShort
by BarnardR
3
DIS Bearish Continuation Play Following Descending Triangle GapDescription Been tracking the descending triangle that DIS was working since early MAR, with a short alert set and triggered on the lower boundary. It was a massive gap though (an indication of a strong break-out), so I have been waiting on a retracement before entry. Today marks a solid rejection of the resistance set in NOV19 and retested before the gap into the pattern on 9DEC20' @ 154.5 , conveniently located at the .382 retracement following the start of this decline, thus triggering the short entry. The implied move from the Descending Triangle takes DIS down to 136. I am not a perma-bear by many means, but I am seeing the same things in almost every chart I look at. The rebound to near ATHs in the indexes earlier this week were only textbook retracements in a lot of the names that have made major bearish breaks in the last 3 months. The VIX is also finding support at 20. Long Put Levels on Chart SL > 154.5 PT : 136 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/31 145P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Tight Stops and Risk Management Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:DISShort
by BarnardR
TMUS Weekly Options PlayDescription TMUS began its bear market following the major trendline break in August. It has now broken through major support at 108.5 established SEP - OCT of 20'. The break through 108.5 is the signal for the entry, and also the stop loss for the position. Using long puts to leave the downside open. The level of the VIX right now is my primary concern in opening long option positions. I consider all of my positions risky, and manage risk accordingly. Long Put Levels on Chart SL > 108.5 PT : 92 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/31 100P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NASDAQ:TMUSShort
by BarnardR
F ATH Break Weekly Options PlayDescription F has chopped around in this congestion pattern, a Rectangle, for 31 days following it's ATH run-up after the break on 28OCT. The Rectangle carries the same price implications as the Symmetrical Triangle, representing an equal balance between buyers and sellers, until one side eventually wins out and pushes the price beyond the upper or lower boundary indicating a shift in supply & demand. This particular rectangle is confined in a very tight range, slightly broadening and displays descending volume throughout (good indication of proper congestion pattern). Although the broadening is characteristic of the current market environment, this weakens the general technical strength of the pattern. Using Long Calls to maintain a positive vega. Long Call Levels on Chart SL < 20.5 PT : No price target set for the ATH , looking for a sharp move. The entry is a daily close over 20.5 . *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/31 21C R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:FLong
by BarnardR
2
GPN Weekly Options PlayDescription This is essentially a "buy the dip" index play intending to ride a retracement as GPN tags and bounces off of a major support level @ 119. Sort-of Hedge for heavy short account. Using a call debit spread to bring the price down and reduce risk. Call Debit Spread Levels on Chart SL < 119 PT : 135 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/17 125C SELL 12/17 135C R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:GPNLong
by BarnardR
SNAP Broadening Formation Breakout Weekly Options PlayDescription Snap has been working this pattern since DEC20, making its ATH in September of 21' and appears to have broken the lower accumulation line. The trigger for the short position is @ 50 on the weekly time frame, but 49 on the daily time frame, so the position here is a starter. Following a back test or definitive continuation, I will be adding to the position or stopping out at 50. Refer to this chart for the longer time frame: Technical Indicators: Break of lower accumulation line Converging 50/200D EMA Good volume on the breakout Using Long Puts Long Put Levels on Chart SL is a daily close > 50. An intermediate price target is at 44, then 35, and longer term is set at 17.5. For an intermediate target, we will be going with 44. *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/23 45P R/R & Break-evens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:SNAPShort
by BarnardR
5
$AMD IC 40% Profit and 77% PoP #amd #trading #optionsI'm waiting for this AMD corrention.... * Big red trending candle. * Reasonable safety S/R zones. * Long run and now correction. Why Iron Condor? Let the bulls/bears to choose direction, I would like to making money in any direction! Max profit: $286 Probability of 50%Profit: 77% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 40% Max loss with my risk management: ~$200 Req. Buy Power: $770 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 94 (very high) Expiry: 49 days SETUP: IC for 1.43cr each, because IVR ultra high * Buy 2 AMD Jan21' 110 Put * Sell 2 AMD Jan21' 115 Put * Sell 2 AMD Jan21' 170 Call * Buy 2 AMD Jan21' 175 Call Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~$200. Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.57db each. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NASDAQ:AMD
by TanukiTrade
WMT Potential Double Top Options PlayDescription WMT double rejection off 152 along with converging MACD looking bearish. This is a re-entry from a related idea. Using A put debit spread, because profits are always limited by time. Put Debit Spread Levels on Chart SL > 152 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 11/26 149P SELL 11/26 135P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. The long call is placed ATM for higher chance of profit, The short call is placed at the 135 support level . Earnings on 16NOV are a risk factor Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:WMTShort
by BarnardR
TWTR Weekly Options PlayDescription TWTR remains in extended downtrend that began in FEB of this year. Began broadening formation in August that ended in a breakout to the downside of both the broadening formation and the major trendline that began in MAR of 20' Long Put Levels on Chart SL on a daily close over the lower trendline in the broadening formation. This can happen and a short is still valid, but due to the nature of options this position will be a close-out and search for new entry. *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 11/12 53P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:TWTRShort
by BarnardR