$AMD IC 40% Profit and 77% PoP #amd #trading #optionsI'm waiting for this AMD corrention....
* Big red trending candle.
* Reasonable safety S/R zones.
* Long run and now correction.
Why Iron Condor?
Let the bulls/bears to choose direction, I would like to making money in any direction!
Max profit: $286
Probability of 50%Profit: 77%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 40%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$200
Req. Buy Power: $770 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 94 (very high)
Expiry: 49 days
SETUP: IC for 1.43cr each, because IVR ultra high
* Buy 2 AMD Jan21' 110 Put
* Sell 2 AMD Jan21' 115 Put
* Sell 2 AMD Jan21' 170 Call
* Buy 2 AMD Jan21' 175 Call
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~$200.
Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.57db each.
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
If you liked this article, check my other ideas.
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Optionsplay
WMT Potential Double Top Options PlayDescription
WMT double rejection off 152 along with converging MACD looking bearish.
This is a re-entry from a related idea.
Using A put debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Put Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL > 152
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/26 149P
SELL
11/26 135P
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ATM for higher chance of profit,
The short call is placed at the 135 support level .
Earnings on 16NOV are a risk factor
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
TWTR Weekly Options PlayDescription
TWTR remains in extended downtrend that began in FEB of this year. Began broadening formation in August that ended in a breakout to the downside of both the broadening formation and the major trendline that began in MAR of 20'
Long Put
Levels on Chart
SL on a daily close over the lower trendline in the broadening formation. This can happen and a short is still valid, but due to the nature of options this position will be a close-out and search for new entry.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/12 53P
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
AAPL ATH Break Weekly Options PlayDescription
AAPL makes ATH today and closes above, signaling supply is exhausted.
Using long calls.
Long Call
Levels on Chart
SL < 157
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/26 162.5C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long call is placed to achieve desired debit.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
BA Weekly Options PlayDescription
BA gapped out of the pattern, a strong signal, and made a nice bullish candle on strong volume.
We'll be looking for this move to continue.
Related idea linked, almost entered on friday, but didn't quite cut it.
Using A call debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Call Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL is a daily close back in the wedge.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/19 235C
SELL
11/19 255C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ATM for higher chance of profit,
The short call is placed at a reasonable expected level of price within the expiration time.
The front-week options play is to capitalize on a swift movement following the break.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
MSFT Weekly Options PlayDescription
MSFT cooling off of ATH. Looking to take advantage of this by selling some TVP on the end-of-month contracts.
MACD looking to cross
Call Credit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL > 340
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/26 345C
SELL
11/26 340C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
Looking to make 18% return on collateral in 2 weeks.
The short call is placed above previous ATH for good balance of potential success and maximum profit.
The long call is placed 5 points away IAW collateral requirements and risk tolerance.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
PYPL Weely Options PlayDescription
PYPL moving up into the gap that was created following the earnings release. Not all gaps will be filled, but they give a good clue as to how supply and demand will play out.
I would typically put on a call credit spread for a long position, but this low volatility, lethaly-injected environment lends to being a seller of options.
I am also "hedged" with plenty of long options in case anything goes haywire.
Put Credit Spread
By Expiration
Max loss occurs at any strike under the long put (207.5)
Max gain occurs at any strike over the short put (210)
SL < 210
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/19 207.5P
SELL
11/19 210P
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
Looking to make 26% return on collateral by EOW.
The short put is placed under the opening bar following the post-earnings gap
The long call is placed 2.5 points away IAW collateral requirements, risk tolerance, and R/R.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
BA Wedge Break Weekly Options PlayDescription
Watching this wedge for BA. A close over the descending trendline in the wedge will trigger a long.
Seeing bullish convergence on weekly MACD.
Some good news has come out in the last couple weeks, indicating fine time for a supply/demand shift.
Using A call debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Call Debit Spread
Tentative Levels on Chart
SL is a daily close back in the wedge.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/19 225C
SELL
11/19 240C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ATM for higher chance of profit,
The short call is placed to get the desired debit per contract.
The front-week options play is to capitalize on a swift movement following the break. I will look at opening some 2 or 3-month options as well, because its a large pattern.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
WMT Weekly Options PlayDescription
WMT double rejection off 150, a decisive close below this level triggers a short position.
Using A put debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Put Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL > 150
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/26 148P
SELL
11/26 135P
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ATM for higher chance of profit,
The short call is placed at the 135 support level.
Earnings on 16NOV are a risk factor
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
AAPL Same Week Long Call Calendar SpreadDescription:
Earnings after close, taking advantage of high IV on same week options and covering with next week's (Calendar Spread).
Long Call Calendar Spread
Levels on Chart
R/R ~4:1
Positive R/R, stop loss levels built into position.
Conveniently, Break-evens:
158.99, (2 stdev from open)
146.33, (~80% of 1 stdev from open)
Intend to close before near term expiration.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/05 152.5C
SELL
10/29 152.5C
Position Addition:
Will be running a limited amount of capital in additional same week OTM long calls to position for additional upside.
These will be purchased at EOD.
My Position:
BUY
10/29 160C
*The amount I am buying of the OTM calls here is equivalent to ~15% of total position size.
Estimated Position Delta: .09
As you can see, my long long bias is negligible to the overall strategy.
I will update with my fill and delta when I open the additional long calls.
SGEN upside potential to 165$ and then 180$SGEN might deep a little lower towards the strong support of 145$ before retesting 165$ and 180$ previous resistance levels.
Earnings are in the way (29 APR) it might dip towards 145-155$ and continue towards 180$