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GBPUSD: Bears have maintained control since the week kicked offHi there! Today, the GBPUSD currency pair continues to maintain a clear downward trend on the 1-hour timeframe, currently fluctuating around the 1.2900 level. Market caution remains the key factor contributing to this weakness, as investors show hesitation amid uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies, as well as unpredictable expectations from US-Russia negotiations regarding the peace agreement in Ukraine. Technically, GBPUSD is moving within a well-defined descending price channel on H1, indicating that sellers remain in control. Notably, the EMA 34 and EMA 89 lines are acting as strong dynamic resistance levels, consistently pushing prices back down during each recovery attempt. Personally, with such technical signals, I lean towards a trend-following selling strategy, targeting the channel bottom around the 1.2840-1.2850 zone. What about you? Are you inclined towards buying at the bottom, or do you prefer to stay aligned with the current downward trend? Please share your perspective!
Short
by Brian-TradingFX
1
03/24 SPX Weekly GEX Outlook, Options FlowYou can see that every expiry has shifted into a stronger bullish stance heading into Friday, with GEX exposure moving upward across the board—though total net GEX is still in negative territory, while net DEX (delta exposure) is positive. This combination points toward a likely near-term rebound this week, which makes sense after testing the 5600 range last week…. Here’s a more detailed breakdown of the key zones and likely moves this week: Bullish Target: The current uptrend could reach 5750 on its first attempt (already reached in Monday, thx bullsh :) ). If a positive gamma squeeze emerges at that level, we might see an extension to 5800 or even 5850 as a final profit-taking zone for bulls this week. HVL (Gamma Slip Zone): Placed at 5680, this threshold currently supports a low-volatility environment. A drop below 5680, however, could reignite fear and fuel bearish momentum. Put Floors & Net OI: The largest net negative open interest (OI) cluster is at 5650, with the next key level near 5600. At 5600, net DEX reads fully positive, suggesting strong buying support if the market tests that lower boundary.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
EURUSD: Selling strategy continues to be the priority!In recent trading sessions, EURUSD has faced continuous downward pressure from multiple directions - both fundamental news and technical signals indicate a rather negative outlook for the Euro. Fundamentally, Eurozone's manufacturing and services PMI data continue to disappoint, remaining below the 50 mark, signaling signs of economic recession. Additionally, recovery expectations remain weak, while the US continues to report more robust economic indicators. This has put EURUSD in a "tight squeeze": Euro weakens due to internal data, while the USD receives support, creating a clear downward pressure dynamic. On the H4 chart, EURUSD is not just falling, but also following a very “textbook” logic: Price breaks support → returns to the resistance zone (Fibo 0.5–0.618) → creates a bearish divergence pattern → continues to break the bottom → extends the trend.
Short
by Brian-TradingFX
Latest Gold Update Today!Dear friends, let's explore the gold price after major fluctuations! On developments and results: Gold is typically considered a safe-haven instrument during economic and political turbulence and tends to rise in value when interest rates are low. This year, the price has set new highs 16 times, reaching a record of $3,057 during the March 20 session. Conclusions about gold and trends: "The market is cooling down. Profit-taking activities are occurring and the dollar is also stronger." Nevertheless, safe-haven demand, both for political and commercial risks, will continue to be the main driving force for gold prices. The strategy of buying gold during price corrections remains reasonable, as long as the important support level at $2,980 holds firm. For prices to extend further gains, they need to break above the resistance level of $3,060 as mentioned on the 1-hour hart. What are your thoughts on gold's movement? Please leave your comments to let me know! Good luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Brian-TradingFX
1
EURUSD: Bears continue to enjoy the advantageHello everyone. Yesterday, EURUSD experienced a significant price liquidation, dropping to 1.0800 and closing at the lowest level of the week. This correction occurred as the US Dollar (USD) regained momentum, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) pushing further above the 104.00 mark as investors continued to monitor the latest developments surrounding tariffs. With the current price structure, I still prioritize a selling strategy, especially as long as it remains below both the EMA 34 and EMA 89 lines, the main trend remains downward. Pay attention to the support level at 1.0870, from which there is potential for a breakdown and further price decline. Wishing you successful and profitable trading!
Short
by Brian-TradingFX
1
USDJPY: Buyers continue to dominate the marketDear friends! As Brian mentioned in his previous analysis, USDJPY's breakout from the bearish channel has led to a significant price increase. At the time of writing, the price is trading below the 151.00 resistance level. The upward trend is particularly strong as it consolidates at high levels with stable trading activity on the 1-hour timeframe. Additionally, the market's optimistic sentiment - driven by hopes for less disruptive US trade tariffs, Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, and China's stimulus measures - is considered a headwind for the safe-haven JPY. This has contributed to making the market hotter than ever before. The price increase is expected to reach 151.85, which corresponds to the 1.618 Fibonacci level. What are your thoughts on this matter? Do you agree with me?
Long
by Brian-TradingFX
1
Opening (IRA): TMF May 17th 39 Covered Call... for a 38.06 debit. Comments: Along with TLT, one of the only red things on my ETF board. Doing a starter position here, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 38.06/share Max Profit: .94 ROC at Max: 2.47% 50% Max: .47 ROC at 50% Max: 1.24% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call at 50% max.
AMEX:TMFLong
by NaughtyPines
Latest gold update today: Price continues to increase sharplyHello to all dear traders! Gold declined yesterday after establishing a short-term peak at $3058 - close to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension level, supported by the dollar's correction. The main reason for this corrective move stems from the price rising too quickly and too far from the equilibrium zone, particularly the OB ZONE. Theoretically, this is an area that previously accumulated strong buying pressure - where institutions and whales may have placed large buy orders. Now the price has returned to retest that exact zone, demonstrating healthy and necessary corrective behavior before continuing the upward trend. Additionally, this correction serves as a market cleansing mechanism that helps shake out late buy orders or FOMO trades, helping to create a more solid foundation for the next upward move. The Fibonacci 1.236 level at $3002 is currently playing a crucial technical support role - an area where buying pressure is expected to return. Would you like me to continue writing about entry strategies from this correction zone? Or would you prefer adding economic news comparisons to strengthen the argument?
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Brian-TradingFX
USDJPY: Upward momentum likely to continue in Bulls' favor!Brian, hello everyone! USD/JPY has surged sharply to 149.50 following the release of Japan's core CPI data, amid the USD maintaining its solid recovery momentum. However, the policy divergence between the BoJ and Fed, along with cautious market sentiment regarding trade risks, may help the Yen maintain its safe-haven role, somewhat restraining the strong upward momentum of this currency pair. In the short-term picture, USDJPY continues to find strong support from the 34,89 EMA, which shows signs of convergence aimed at reinforcing the upward trend. Notably, the bullish channel remains unbroken, indicating that buyers still hold the advantage. Any corrective pullback could present an opportunity to enter BUY orders, targeting the upper boundary of the trend channel as illustrated in the chart.
Long
by Brian-TradingFX
Nifty Trading Stratgey for Option PlayersNifty Trading Strategy for the Week Ahead 📝✅ Nifty has recovered strongly from the 22,700–22,800 zone up to around 23,350. Momentum on the 1H chart is still pointing upward (higher highs and higher lows since early March). Max Pain: ⚠ The current Max Pain appears around 23,200–23,300. Price (≈23,350) is slightly above Max Pain. Often, option sellers benefit if the index settles near the Max Pain level by expiry; however, in a strong uptrend, price can remain above it. Open Interest (OI) & Change in OI:📊 Significant Put OI (and additions) around 23,200 and 23,000. This often implies a support zone. Noticeable Call OI at or above 23,500, which could act as a short-term resistance if price approaches that region. Put–Call Ratio (PCR): 📈📉 PCR is around 1.05–1.10, suggesting mildly bullish sentiment. A PCR > 1 usually means more puts are being sold or more call positions are being closed, implying the market is not aggressively bearish. However, an extremely high PCR can also hint at an overbought market, so it’s good to be cautious. 2. Possible Strategy 🧠 Given the uptrend and the supportive OI near 23,200, a buy-on-dips approach looks reasonable. However, be mindful of the overhead call OI around 23,500. Entry:💡 Buy (go long) near 23,300–23,280 Rationale: You’re buying close to the short-term support area (23,200–23,250) indicated by strong Put OI and near the Max Pain region. Target: 🎯 First Target: 23,450–23,500 Rationale: This zone is just below the big Call OI cluster, which could be the first significant resistance. Lock in partial profits here if the market moves up quickly. 2nd Target (if momentum is strong): 23,600 🎯🎯 Only consider holding for a higher target if you see follow-through buying and a breach of 23,500 on good volumes. Stop Loss: 🔴 Stop Loss: 23,200 (on a closing basis if you are trading intraday to multi-day) Rationale: A break below 23,200 would indicate that sellers are gaining control and that the put-writers’ support is failing.
NSE:NIFTY
by Trendxinc
Opening (IRA): IBIT May 16th 37 Covered Call... for a 35.79 debit. Comments: Laddering out a smidge here, selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 35.79 Max Profit: 1.21 ROC at Max: 3.38% 50% Max: .62 ROC at 50% Max: 1.69% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): USO April 17th 68 Covered Call... for a 66.58 debit. Comments: With /CL dropping sub-70/bbl., putting on a starter position in USO, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 66.58/share Max Profit: 1.42 ROC at Max: 2.13% 50% Max: .71 ROC at 50% Max: 1.07% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): XBI Sept 19th 60C/April 17th -90C LCD*... for a 26.68 debit. Comments: Taking a bullish assumption directional shot near 52 week lows, buying the 90 delta back month and selling a front month that pays for all the extrinsic in the long, resulting in a break even that is at or below where the underlying is currently trading. The 60 long call is shown at 80 so that it fits on the chart ... . Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 26.68 Break Even: 86.88 Max Profit: 3.32 ROC at Max: 12.44% 50% Max: 1.66 ROC at 50% Max: 6.22% Delta/Theta: 53.79/3.51 Will generally look to take profit on the setup as a unit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call at 50% max to reduce cost basis/downside break even. * -- Long Call Diagonal
AMEX:XBILong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): XBI May 16th -91C/October 17th 60C LCD*... for a 26.56 debit. Comments: Back in to XBI on weakness, buying the back month 90 delta and selling the front month that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long. (The back month 60C is shown at the 80 so that it fits on the chart). Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 26.56 Break Even: 86.56 Max Profit: 4.44 ROC at Max: 16.72% 50% Max: 2.22 ROC at 50% Max: 8.36% Will generally look to take profit on the setup as a unit at 50% max, roll out the short call at 50% max to reduce my downside break even. * -- Long call diagonal.
AMEX:XBILong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TGT April 17th -108C/October 17th 75C LCD*... for a 30.05 debit. Comments: At or near a 52-week low. Buying the back month 90 delta and selling the front month strike that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long. (The 75C is shown at the 100 strike so that it fits on the chart). Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 30.05 Break Even: 105.05 Max Profit: 2.95 ROC at Max: 9.82% 50% Max: 1.48 ROC at 50% Max: 4.91% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or roll the short call at 50% max to lower my downside break even. * -- Long Call Diagonal.
NYSE:TGTLong
by NaughtyPines
EURUSD – Trend consolidation and false Breakout signalsFX:EURUSD entering a mild adjustment phase within its broader upward trend consolidation. The stagnation of the US Dollar Index (DXY) - which is currently influenced by political factors and macroeconomic data - serves as the main catalyst for this corrective move. Although the dollar index is showing signs of a counter-trend adjustment, the overall picture still leans towards depreciation. This creates conditions for EURUSD to maintain its upward structure, at least in the short term. The currency pair is currently accumulating around the crucial support level at 1.078, combined with an imbalance zone around 1.087-1.090. This could be the area where buyers will look for confirmation signals to re-establish the upward momentum. However, price has not yet retested deeper support levels, and the possibility of a correction to 1.078 remains to complete the market structure. Resistance levels: 1.0936 - 1.1009 Support levels: 1.078 - 1.074 Suggested strategy: Closely monitor the 1.087-1.090 zone - if signs of a false breakout appear in this area, it could signal the continuation of the upward trend. However, if this zone fails to hold, EURUSD might retreat to 1.078 before showing a strong reaction. Focus point: Observe price behavior at support zones. Practice patience while waiting for confirmation rather than acting prematurely — as this could be a price trap phase before a genuine breakout.
Long
by KevinSterling
Gold continues uptrend from $3,000Dear traders, greetings to all! Gold opened the new trading week at $3,023 per ounce, unchanged from the closing price last weekend. The precious metal remained steady at the start of the week as markets await the latest U.S. economic data releases in the coming days. Nevertheless, both analysts and experts believe that gold prices could continue rising as money flows from individual and institutional investors are choosing gold as a safe-haven asset. The key data to watch this week is the core personal consumption expenditure index, excluding energy and food prices, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. Markets will also focus on how U.S. consumers are coping in a world of increasing economic uncertainty. Additionally, other notable information this week includes S&P's global manufacturing PMI, services sector data; consumer confidence, new home sales; durable goods orders; pending home sales, and more. Based on my personal assessment, I predict that gold prices will continue to rise in the short term, at least for the next few weeks. While the $3,000 price level might cause some hesitation among buyers, I still expect a steady upward trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Brian-TradingFX
Opening (IRA): TQQQ May 16th 51 Covered Call... for a 48.05 credit. Comments: Adding at a strike better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 48.05 Max Profit: 2.95 ROC at Max: 6.14% 50% Max: 1.48% ROC at 50% Max: 3.07% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call at 50% max.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): XRT April 17th 70/Sept 19th 50 LCD*... for a 17.57 debit. Comments: And back into XRT, which is at/near 52 week lows with a long call diagaonl/Poor Man's Covered Call, buying the back month 90 and selling the front month that pays for all the extrinsic in the long. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 17.57 Break Even: 67.57 Max Profit: 2.43 ROC at Max: 13.83% 50% Max: 1.22 ROC at 50% Max: 6.92% Will generally look to take profit on the setup as a unit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call when it is at 50% max.
AMEX:XRTLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SPXL April 17th 148/October 17th 85 LCD*... for a 56.84 debit. Comments: Looking to be a little bit more buying power efficient here ... . Buying the back month 90 delta and selling the front month that pays for all the extrinsic of the long. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 56.84 Break Even: 141.84 Max Profit: 6.16 ROC at Max: 10.84% 50% Max: 3.08 ROC at 50% Max: 5.42% Will generally look to take profit on the setup as a unit at 50% max, roll short call out at 50% max. * -- Long Call Diagonal.
AMEX:SPXLLong
by NaughtyPines
GOLD → Long Squeeze (False Breakdown of Bullish Trend Support)OANDA:XAUUSD following a strong wave of liquidation on Friday, gold is now retesting a key support area around 3004.9 – where price action briefly created a “false break” before staging a modest rebound. The broader bullish momentum remains intact, fueled by ongoing geopolitical tensions and heightened demand for safe-haven assets. Last week, price action mainly fluctuated within the 3024–3045 consolidation zone. The Friday sell-off occurred against the backdrop of expectations that the White House will revise tariff policies, signaling a potential easing stance toward major trade partners. Additionally, positive sentiment stemming from ongoing negotiations in Eastern Europe – where the U.S. plays a pivotal role – continues to provide a supportive environment for gold. This week, market focus shifts to U.S.–Russia talks and preliminary PMI data, both of which could inject significant volatility if outcomes deviate from expectations. From a technical perspective, the 3024 level is the key pivot point. As long as buyers defend this zone, the bullish trend is likely to extend toward the 3045–3056 resistance range. A breakout above this resistance could open the door for a retest of the all-time high. However, price action near that zone could trigger profit-taking and lead to a temporary pullback.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KevinSterling
GOLD → Consolidation (correction) before growth toward $3100OANDA:XAUUSD enters a consolidation phase after strong growth, supported by the dollar's correction. The metal may test deeper support levels before attempting new highs. Gold is currently undergoing a correction but remains in an overall uptrend. The recent decline in prices may be seen as a buying opportunity, given economic uncertainty stemming from Trump's tariffs and expectations of a Fed rate cut. The Fed has reiterated its forecast for two rate cuts in 2025, despite Powell’s cautious comments. Additionally, gold remains supported by rising inflation risks and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Resistance levels: 3045, 3057 Support levels: 3024 (trendline), 3004 The response to support is weakening, even within the broader uptrend. Gold may continue consolidating until mid-next week or attempt to break out, potentially testing deeper support zones such as the uptrend line or the 3004 imbalance area—both of which could serve as a foundation for further growth.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KevinSterling
3