Bitcoin: Cup and Handle PatternDear Traders!
The textbook cup & handle pattern has been formed and is now at $94,500.
Looking ahead, the uptrend is expected to continue on the back of still-positive fundamentals... with a target of $142.02 expected.
Optionsstrategies
Gold --> Bear Market Heating Up? Resistance AheadOANDA:XAUUSD rising after a false breakout of 2547. Fundamentally, the situation is quite complicated as well as technically...
The metal price is positively affected by the escalating Russia-Ukraine war, making gold more attractive to investors as a safe-haven asset.
In addition, the appeal of gold is reinforced by geopolitical tensions, economic risks and a low interest rate environment. Fed officials are expected to speak this week, thereby providing more details on the US interest rate cut roadmap. Currently, according to traders' predictions, there is a 62% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December... Theoretically, it is still unclear whether gold can maintain its bullish momentum as prices are approaching strong resistance and traders are cautious as they wait for new signals on the Fed's interest rate outlook.
Technically, gold is in the range of 2643 - 2626. Since the opening of the session, the price has increased quite strongly, which increases the possibility of resistance to stop this increase. The situation is complicated by the mixed fundamental backdrop. A false break of 2647 and consolidation below this area will strengthen the selling pressure. But there is a possibility of a retest of 2686 (order block area) before the decline continues. The expected decline will reach the levels of 2547 - 2471 respectively.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with.
Gold: Uptrend to continue from 2650...Hello everyone, Tom here!
As I predicted earlier, gold is becoming more attractive after the dollar entered a consolidation phase... currently at $2657.
Accordingly, expectations of additional stimulus measures from China also supported the growth of the metal's price.
The focus this week remains on the Fed's speech after signals that tensions in the Middle East are easing a bit.
From a technical perspective, gold investors need to watch the range around $2650. Because Since the opening of the session, the price has increased quite strongly, which increases the resistance to stop this increase at the next resistance level. I am assuming its formation With wave 5 and the priority is to target profit taking at 2685 - 2700 respectively.
EURUSD : Realization continues, risks increase!Dear traders,
EURUSD is currently in a bearish "flag" phase this Friday morning in Europe, influenced by risk-off flows stemming from escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on the EU... Now, there is nothing stopping it from further distribution.
Key news is on the horizon that traders should approach with caution. A Fed rate cut. And the question is no longer "when" but "how much" the Fed will cut amid persistently high inflation over the past few months.
From a technical perspective, the focus is on resistance levels at 1.055 and 1.054, which is the (fib 0.618). A gradual retracement and retest will increase the chances of a breakout.
Now, selling pressure on this currency pair is intensifying, prices are entering a risk zone, and buyers are becoming increasingly cautious. We are monitoring the next key downside targets at 1.047-1.044...
BTCUSDT: Bullish momentum continues to buildBINANCE:BTCUSDT continues to hold its ground, trading with an uptrend as buyers look to push the price above a key resistance level. Currently, BTC is consolidating near $91,824, showing signs of accumulation within an ascending triangle pattern. This pattern is often considered a bullish signal, indicating a strong breakout.
The current market sentiment remains bullish, supported by institutional interest and macroeconomic factors, such as a weaker dollar and growing demand for cryptocurrencies as a hedge. The chart shows that Bitcoin could gain momentum, especially if buyers manage to break above the key resistance level of $93,300.
Traders should keep a close eye on the $93,300 resistance level. A confirmed breakout with high volume could provide an entry point for long positions, while traders remain conservative. However, with the price reacting to strong resistance, I do not rule out the possibility that the price could wait for a pullback to the $90,000-91,000 zone, form a trend line and rise.
Gold: Structure change ... The focus is the speech of the FedHello, dear friends, Ben here
Gold prices are surging strongly after breaking through the resistance channel at 2650, as investors turn to this safe haven amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty due to escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions.
It’s evident that geopolitical tensions have heightened interest in safe havens, including the yellow metal. However, this inverse correlation has resurfaced in recent weeks, and the strength of the dollar is likely to hinder gold's momentum moving forward.
All eyes are on several Fed officials scheduled to deliver speeches this week. Market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped significantly, with current odds at 55.7%, down from 82.5% just a week ago.
From a technical perspective, gold has confirmed a trend and shifted sentiment, giving us a major movement to follow in shaping our trading decisions. A false breakout around the local resistance level at 2643 is forming. Price consolidation above this area could trigger further bullish momentum. However, I haven’t ruled out the possibility of a fake move around 2622 to accumulate before a stronger rally.
What are your thoughts on this?
GBPUSD: Sell Positive. Emphasis on 1,262FX:GBPUSD falling and reaction to the "flag" model. The price is checking the strong support level around 1,262 ... The basic context still supports the dollar.
Theoretically, the currency briefcase after breaking the channel increases, the price has formed a adjustment and now is decreasing. The areas of interest in our case may be 1,260, 1,257, 1,252.
Basically, the trend of this pair of money may be due to the weaker US dollar and the market environment is psychologically avoiding risks. Traders are still cautious in the context of geopolitical tensions and mild economic calendar. Fedpeak is noticed.
There is no news until the Fed speaks, so the basic context remains the same. The market may stop and go into the consolidation process, but with the high possibility that the decline after a breakthrough 1,262 will continue ...
Gold-> Buyer Back Yet?Dear Traders, Ben here!
After suffering significant losses last week, gold has regained its recovery momentum and is trading positively above $2,600 on Monday. The fundamental backdrop supports this recovery. Key resistance levels at $2,518 and $2,628 now divide the market into two distinct zones.
Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting moves from several Fed officials this week to gain further insights into the U.S. interest rate trajectory.
The most likely scenario at the moment is a slight recovery in gold prices following the recent steep sell-off, with expectations for gold to climb higher after several reversals in the USD.
In the medium term, bulls need to reassess U.S. policy planning in December, as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady in January. This has not been fully priced into the market, so any adjustments could pose challenges for gold.
Technically, since the market opened, prices have climbed considerably, increasing the likelihood of resistance capping further upward movement. A false breakout at $2,589 and subsequent consolidation below this zone would strengthen selling pressure. However, there is potential for a retest of $2,618 (Order Block).
Similarly, a failed breakout could trigger selling momentum. But if the fundamentals align strongly in favor of gold, the market may have a chance to shift the local trend from the $2,618 zone.
EURUSD: Consolidation “flag”. Willingness to go belowBen, hello everyone!
CAPITALCOM:EURUSD is consolidating in the form of a "flag", the purpose is to accumulate before continuing the trend... The fundamental context remains negative.
On D1, when looking closely at the 4-hour chart, it is clear that the price is maintaining a decline below 1.0600. There is no reaction to push the price higher. Therefore, in the short term, the momentum and strength of buyers are not expected to be enough to reverse the local situation.
Looking ahead, as long as the dollar continues to consolidate, the euro will theoretically be hit hard...
In particular, the focus is on the consolidating "flag". Breaking this channel, the downtrend will continue.
Ben personally appreciates trading in the direction of the current trend, if there is a clear move, that is, expecting the price to break out and consolidate below the 1.052 area, aiming for a lower target in the short term. The focus is still on the 1.060 level and around the resistance at 1.065.
11/18 Volatility Zones: Gamma Squeeze, Chop, and Support LevelsWeekly GEX Levels for SPX:
The SPX analysis from last week’s free newsletter seems to have played out well. If you recall, based on the weekly GEX levels, there were no significant gamma levels below 5950. As soon as the price dropped below that, we saw the anticipated red gap-down to 5850 by Friday.
With Friday's move, SPX shifted from a positive NETGEX range to a negative one:
Let’s not forget: a negative gamma range means that market makers move in the same direction as retail traders, increasing the likelihood of stronger price movements, regardless of the market’s direction. Until the 5900 HVL level is reclaimed, I don’t expect this to change. As we saw today, there was a nice bounce off this level with a rejection, making it a tough resistance to break.
If it does manage to break through, there’s currently a call gamma wall at 5925. Clearing this level could open the door to higher ranges again.
While the week is still long, if the market fails to regain stability by Friday, breaking below the major 5850 PUT gamma wall could lead to another rapid move down, similar to last Friday, targeting the 5810–5800 range.
Gamma Squeeze Zones for SP:SPX & AMEX:SPY this week:
Above 5925:
Gamma squeeze zone, where upward momentum can accelerate.
Chop Zone:
Between 5900 and 5930: Sideways movement expected, with the market consolidating in this range.
High Volatility Zone:
Below 5900: High volatility zone, indicating increased intensity in market movements.
Market Makers Hedging Behavior Shift Zone:
Around 5900: A critical zone where market makers may adjust their hedging strategies.
Call Resistance:
Below 5940: Reduced volatility expected as call resistance limits upward movement.
Put Support Levels:
Around 5850: Highest negative NETGEX/PUT support level.
Between 5810 and 5800: Additional put support levels acting as key supports; if 5850 broken, turbulence is expected.
IV and Skew Data:
IVR: 16.9 increasing
IV Average: 14.9 increasing
PUT pricing skew: 31.5%
EURUSD continues to extend sharp decline from 1.0600Dear Traders... Let's discuss and strategize with Ben today!
Overall, after updating the low around 1.0497, the price recovered around 0.08% on the day.
However, EUR/USD remained on the defensive near 1.0550 during the European session on Monday. The pair remained weak as geopolitical risks between Russia and Ukraine resurfaced although the US Dollar limited its gains. The divergent policy outlook of the ECB-Fed also weighed on the pair ahead of the central bank talks.
Today, there will be no high-impact data that could influence the action of EUR/USD. Therefore, market participants will pay close attention to comments from central bank officials.
Technically, price resistance at 1.0550 - 1.0660 and resistance at 1.0663 should be watched. A false breakout and consolidation below these areas could trigger a decline.
Currently, Euro is hinting that the pullback could be a bit longer. MMs are likely to look for liquidity (above these levels) ahead of the news. A false breakout could trigger sellers to act, which would only add to the selling pressure.
However, a mild recovery from 1.0550 and back to 1.0497 would increase the likelihood of a breakdown and decline.
Gold -> How Long Will the Adjustment Last? Emphasis on $2,600Hello, dear friends, Ben here!
Gold (XAU/USD) extended its recovery early Monday, testing the $2,600 level and ending a six-day losing streak after a false breakout and a retest of $2,546. The latest surge in gold prices may be tied to escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, following the U.S. authorization for Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike Russian territory.
However, the latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey reflects a bearish market sentiment. Specifically, the continued rise in the USD and bond yields is exerting downward pressure on gold prices. Additionally, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has adopted a more hawkish stance, posing further challenges for the precious metal.
Looking ahead, with gold prices still at low levels, central banks may return as buyers in the market. However, Europe's ongoing economic struggles are pressuring the euro, prompting increased USD purchases to counter depreciation. As a result, gold prices may trade sideways or see additional declines unless a major geopolitical event emerges.
This week, the gold market is expected to remain subdued due to the lack of major economic data releases. Key focus areas include U.S. housing starts and building permits, home sales, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. Additionally, market participants are awaiting comments from several Fed officials to assess the pace and scale of upcoming interest rate cuts.
From a technical standpoint, gold is thoroughly testing the resistance zone around $2,600–$2,589, attempting to offset market losses. Theoretically, a false breakout and consolidation below this zone could lead to further declines. Currently, I do not rule out the possibility of liquidity testing above this resistance zone ahead of significant news events. A false breakout could trigger selling activity, further reinforcing bearish momentum. However, if prices rebound near the $2,600 resistance and begin a smooth decline towards $2,546, it would generally increase the likelihood of a breakdown and continuation of the downtrend.
GEX levels of SPX for Weekly Option TradersAlthough the SPX is currently trading within a relatively neutral positive gamma range, it’s worth taking a closer look at what the week might hold.
This week, SPX is moving between critical resistance and support levels, which are showing significant options activity. The 5900 level is the key CALL resistance, acting as the gamma wall for the next 7 days (7DTE) . This suggests that as long as the price remains below this level, it will face strong resistance in moving higher. If the market breaks through this level, it could signal a bullish breakout, leading to increased turbulence.
🟨 DETAILED VIEW:
In case of a breakout, keep an eye on the second weaker CALL wall at 5925 and the third weaker CALL wall at 5940, which are the next potential resistance levels once the market moves past the 5900 gamma wall. These levels could play a pivotal role in the price’s upward movement and indicate further buying pressure.
🔶 HVL Level and Gamma Environment: 5830
The 5830 level represents the High Volatility Level (HVL), which determines whether we are in a positive or negative gamma environment. If SPX closes below this level, we enter the negative gamma zone, which could lead to increased market volatility. This could result in sharper price movements during the week if this level does not hold. In that case, the PUT supports come into focus.
The 5750 level marks the strongest PUT support, providing substantial downward support for the market. However, before reaching this level, it’s important to consider the emerging PUT wall at 5765, which may stop the price from falling lower. This could act as an intermediate support, slowing or even halting a decline before the 5750 level comes into play.
🔶 Implied Volatility and Time-Based Strategic Opportunities NOW
The decrease in implied volatility, as shown by the IV and IVx indicators, signals a calmer market environment. Based on IV rank and average IV levels, volatility is running lower, which presents good opportunities for various spread strategies, especially time spreads that can be optimized between the 11/01 and 11/04 time frame.
Key levels above could fuel further market movement throughout the week if a breakout occurs. CALL/PUT gamma levels on the options chain strongly outline the potential resistance and support levels, but these levels can change dynamically, especially if SPX breaks through the 5900 level.
🔶 SPX Key Levels This Week:
5900 CALL resistance – Main gamma wall, strong resistance.
5925 and 5940 – Second and third weaker CALL walls, offering additional resistance if broken.
5830 HVL – Key level determining the gamma environment.
5765 PUT wall – Emerging intermediate PUT support, which could slow a decline.
5750 PUT support – Strongest PUT gamma wall and support.
Keep these levels in mind throughout the week, as they will likely influence market movements and the volatility environment. By applying the right options strategies, this information can help you structure profitable positions.
Home Depot sells CUPS with Handles Now?! 30%+ Move Inbound!When Did NYSE:HD Start Selling Cup w/ Handles? ☕️
Looks like NYSE:HD is introducing a new item for 2025 - the Cup with Handles! 🎉
I have a feeling this is going to be a BIG HIT! Just need to see XMAS RED➡️GREEN on the H5 Indicator before we go ahead and buy these new cups with handles.
I've added it to my watchlist and set an alert!
🎯$468
📏$532
BITCOIN-->Implementation and distribution phase. Target 100,000BINANCE:BTCUSDT is consolidating after a strong rally. In the context of a more likely rally. The target around 95,000 - 100,000 is getting closer and more realistic. What is the reason?
The fundamental backdrop is strong because of the Trump presidential election, which is generally favorable for bitcoin and other crypto flows. Can this rally be even bigger? Yes! And there are bullish premises for it:
BTCUSDT has broken out of the accumulation (triangle) but faces a strong resistance zone. The coin continues to accumulate potential, but there are signs of a resistance breakout.
Technically, the picture on the chart is shaping up to be extremely bullish: no extension of the lows, strong consolidation and strong support levels.
I do not rule out the possibility of a retest of the support level and the formation of a false breakdown before further growth. But in any case, a break above the major resistance zone at 91,650 could trigger a bullish run.
TCOM Trip(.)com Group Limited Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip op TCOM:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of TCOM Trip(.)com Group Limited prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 60usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-12-20,
for a premium of approximately $3.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Opened (IRA): BITO June 28th 31 Covered Call... for a 27.55 debit.
Comments: Not the weakness I was looking for, but setting myself up to grab the early June dividend.
Generally, I'll look to roll out the short call at 50% max ... .
Opening (IRA): TQQQ January 17th 65 Covered Call... for a 61.79 debit.
Comments: Adding a "rung" at a break even better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 61.79/share
Max Profit: 3.21 ($321)
ROC at Max: 5.20%
50% Max: 1.62 ($162)
ROC at 50% Max: 2.60%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit test (which is at 63.40).
GOLD → Correction is getting stronger. Next is 2500Hello, dear traders, Ben here!
Spot gold is consolidating around the $2,600 mark on Wednesday after extending its recent slide to $2,589 per troy ounce, marking the lowest point since September
Meanwhile, sellers have decided to take a pause ahead of the key U.S. CPI report, which could significantly impact Fed rate-cut expectations and provide fresh momentum.
In theory, any effort to drive gold prices higher might be constrained due to the poor performance of stocks, which continues to boost demand for the U.S. dollar. Most Asian and European indices closed in the red, while Wall Street pared its latest gains, with all three major indices down, albeit with limited declines.
Looking ahead, October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to come in at 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, the latter being slightly higher than the previous 2.4%. However, the annual core CPI is anticipated to remain stable at 3.3%. Additionally, market participants are speculating on what a potential Trump return to the White House might mean for the U.S. and the rest of the world.
From a technical perspective, gold is attempting to break out of a primary range, breaching the key support. If there’s a false break around the 2,610 level, a minor correction toward resistance may form. However, with prices testing a strong support level, we may see a false breakout and a corrective movement to the 2,626-2,636 area (0.618 fib line) before resuming the downtrend.
Ethusdt plunged in the channel, the target to 3,125 USDTEthereum (ETH) is currently showing a significant decrease in a 1 -hour time frame, moving in a discount channel. With the current price of nearly 3,214 USDT, ETH seems to be having difficulty overcoming resistance around this area. If ETH cannot break the resistance threshold of 3,218 USDT, the downtrend may continue and push prices to lower support levels, namely $ 3,125.
Investors should closely monitor ETH's developments in the near future, especially when the price reaches the resistance of the channel. If this trend continues, ETH can decrease further, bringing short -term sales opportunities to short -term trading people.
BTCUSDT maintains support, targeting 94,000 USDTBitcoin (BTC) is trading between 88,000 to 89,000 USDT, this is a strong support area in the short term. Currently, the ema34 and ema89 indicators are below the price, showing the increase trend may continue if this support level is maintained.
Forecast: If BTC continues to hold over 89,000 USDT, the price is likely to increase higher landmarks, targeting 92,000 - 94,000 USDT.
ETHUSDT: Buyers Reject 3450. Will Price Continue to Fall?ETHUSDT continues to be under bearish pressure from the 3445 formation. Panic? Profit-taking? Are buyers turning around?
Ethereum’s recent price pressure could be due to general market sentiment, possibly due to concerns over regulatory announcements or macroeconomic data impacting risk assets.
Theoretically, if the strength of the US dollar continues and the general market uncertainty persists, this could add further bearish pressure to Ethereum.
Technically, it is worth noting the support zones mentioned.
The 3130 level will hold for the long term as it is a very strong zone, but based on the setup and pattern, there is a high probability of seeing a breakout and decline. The 2775 - 2770 is an ideal zone to test as it is a strong intermediate bottom where price has responded to previous downside.
Let me know what you think about this setup or if you have specific questions about this analysis!
EURUSD: False Resistance Break Could Add to DeclineAs expected, EURUSD continues to hit new lows, currently hovering around the 1.062 level.
The Euro's retreat has largely been driven by a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar (USD), pushing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) above 106.00, marking multi-month highs. This surge is fueled by market optimism surrounding the so-called “Trump trade,” with investors betting on potential policies under the upcoming Trump administration.
On higher timeframes, EURUSD is testing a solid support level, which might trigger a corrective move. However, on the 4-hour timeframe, we can clearly observe a downtrend, with the 34 and 89 EMA acting as resistance and continuing to weaken the buying side. Therefore, any strong resistance level is likely to maintain control over the market.
Currently, we are watching for a potential false breakout of the trend resistance, with the aim of consolidation. This consolidation is generally forming within a channel, and if sellers maintain control around the 1.605 - 1.068 area, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level, we should expect a decline toward key areas of interest in the medium term.
