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USDJPY: Correction before dropping to 153.00-152.00Hello everyone, Ben here! USDJPY has yet to resume its upward trend. Rumors about potential actions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are beginning to surface. Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to gain strength. The 158.46 level represents a strong resistance zone established by the sellers. Strong expectations for an additional interest rate hike by the BoJ this week are also lending support to the JPY. Overall, this influence appears relatively weak but could still provide significant backing for this currency pair. In theory, any upward movement of this major pair might be limited due to trade policy risks from the soon-to-be-inaugurated US President Donald Trump, which have constrained any significant bullish moves for the safe-haven JPY. The focus this week will be on Trump’s inauguration speech on Monday and the highly anticipated two-day BoJ policy meeting beginning on Thursday. From a technical standpoint, the price is attempting to break out of a major range and test key support levels. A false breakout around the 156.56 level could lead to the price targeting newly formed resistance zones. However, if the price settles below 156.56 or even drops under 155.95, it could trigger strong selling pressure sooner than expected. Best regards, Bentradegold!
Short
by Bentradegold
[01/20] GEX Outlook: Decision, Key Levels and Looming VolatilityLooking at the GEX levels through Friday, we can see that since mid-December, the market has been moving in a slightly downward channel. Above 6000–6025: A call gamma squeeze is expected. Between 5925 and 6000: A sideways “chop zone.” Below 5925: The high-volatility zone begins, with 5800–5850 acting as our major support/resistance level characterized by heavy put dominance. Below that level lies a “total denial zone.” We’ve seen this scenario before—think back to the red candle on December 18, when the price broke below that threshold. This “red zone” is currently around 5800, so below 5925 we can anticipate large-amplitude moves. At this point, the market still does not seem worried about significant volatility. Until Friday, all NETGEX values for every expiration are positive , so market participants are pricing in more of a sideways movement. We haven’t yet seen a big pickup in volatility. I’m not pessimistic, but keep in mind that Trump’s inauguration might usher in a high-volatility period—something the market and many retail traders haven’t experienced in a while. Better safe than sorry.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Weekly GEX Insights: 01/13 SPX dropTotal Correction? What Can an Options Trader Do in This Situation? How Far Might We Fall This Week? We’ll tackle these questions in this week’s options newsletter! It looks like the new president hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but the market is already reacting with fear to every statement he makes. Last week’s economic data didn’t help ease those concerns either. SPX Weekly Analysis Friday’s red candle set a bearish tone heading into this week. Everyone is predicting and pricing in a potential market apocalypse, and I keep getting the same question: “Greg, how far can we fall?” My answer remains the same: we can fall indefinitely—nobody can know for certain ahead of time. What we can do, however, is analyze our charts and use the our weekly GEX profile to identify the key levels, so we can better understand the market’s dynamics. Examining expirations through Friday, every NETGEX profile is negative , so we can expect volatile movements this week. We’re currently trading below the HVL level, which means that market makers are likely to move in tandem with retail traders. This typically results in bigger swings. We already saw this heightened volatility last week—just look at the size of the candles, and you can tell how quickly sentiment can shift. Below 5965 (the HVL level), we are in a high volatility zone what lies underneath? 1st Support Range: 5780–5800 5800: Currently the strongest PUT support level on the downside. A correction may pause here due to profit-taking. Right beneath this level is the previous gap-fill zone. Remember, these areas function as ranges rather than single lines, as I’ve highlighted down to 5780. This could easily be a take-profit target for traders playing gap fills—an approach that’s quite popular. 2nd Support Range: 5700–5650 (Very Strong) Starting at 5700: We encounter another robust PUT support zone. This area is reinforced by previous lows, previous highs, and the 4/8 grid boundary from our indicator. Even if nowhere else, many expect at least a local rebound to occur within these levels. Putting it all together, it’s clear that the weekly trading range is shaping up to be roughly between 5680 and 5965, expecting big & volatile moves. Remember, CPI and PPI data are coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could trigger additional volatility. When looking at SPX, SPY, or /ES futures, my opinion is that the rapidly spiking implied volatility (IV) during a market drop, along with a PUT pricing skew, can present favorable opportunities for options traders. The distance to the strongest lower support zone is around 100–150 points, so you could: Trade directionally for the short term—hoping to be either right or wrong quickly, or Try to profit from the market situation in a more strategic way (which is what I typically do). Personally, I prefer the second approach: I’ll open short-term (a few days) credit put ratio spreads for a small credit, which gives me a wide breakeven range and a big “tent” on the downside.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 28th 49.5 Covered Call... for a 47.52 debit. Comments: High IV/IVR. Back into IBIT on a little bit of weakness here, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. The March monthly is still a bit long in duration for my tastes, so going with a weekly. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.52/share Max Profit: 1.98 ROC at Max: 4.17% 50% Max: .99 ROC at 50% Max: 2.09% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit test, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at break evens better than what I currently have on.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): EWY July 18th 35C/February 21st -55C PMCC*... for an 18.17 debit. Comments: Back into EWY, after missing out on the dividend due to my shares being called away. Since there is no longer a dividend to be had, going with a Poor Man's Covered Call/long call diagonal, buying the longer-dated 90 delta strike and selling a shorter-dated call that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long, resulting in a setup that has a break even slightly below where the underlying is currently trading. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 18.17 Break Even: 53.17 Max Profit: 1.83 ROC at Max: 10.07% 50% Max: .92 ROC at 50% Max: 5.04% Delta/Theta: 46.50/.751 Will look to money/take/run at 50% max.
AMEX:EWYLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TLT March 21st 81 Covered Call... for a 79.98 debit. Comments: Adding a "rung" in March at a break even better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 79.98/share Max Profit (Excluding Dividends): 1.02 ROC at Max (Excluding Dividends): 1.28% Generally looking to roll out-of-the-money short call down and out for a credit that is greater than the amount of strike destruction at expiry to generate a quasi-free cash flow setup consisting of (a) short call premium; and (b) dividends. This differs somewhat than what I would ordinarily do, which is generally money/take/run at 50% max.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
2
Opening (IRA): URTY January 17th 51 Covered Call.. for a 49.25 debit. Comments: With my usual leveraged go-to TQQQ in kind of the IV doldrums (IVR 18.1/IV 49.6), opting for a play in URTY with its 63.4% 30-Day IV instead. It's not as liquid and doesn't have nearly as robust an options chain as TQQQ, but I will make do. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 49.25/share Max Profit: 1.75 ROC at Max: 3.55% 50% Max: .88 ROC at 50% Max: 1.78% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on test of take profit price, and add should I be able to get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on.
AMEX:URTYLong
by NaughtyPines
GOLD → Testing Key Resistance with Potential to Reach 2726-2790OANDA:XAUUSD currently testing an important resistance level from which we can expect the price to continue rising to key levels such as 2726-2790. Technically, gold has entered the buying zone and the fundamental context supports it. Gold is supported by weak US inflation data, moderate Fed expectations, hopes for Chinese stimulus measures, and fading concerns about President-elect Trump's disruptive trade tariffs which have supported the risk-on sentiment prevailing in markets, causing the US dollar to decline sharply. Focus shifts to other economic data releases from the US, including December Retail Sales and Weekly Unemployment Claims, which will provide more clarity on the Fed's interest rate trajectory after January. Markets have fully priced in a rate pause at the Fed's policy meeting later this month. Gold prices will also remain dependent on any speculation surrounding Trump's tariff plans. Technically, all eyes are now on the resistance zone at 2697-2700. If gold can consolidate above this area, buyers will quickly enter the medium and long-term playing field. But don't forget about the upcoming news releases. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
Full ARKK Reverse Gamma Scalping PositionThe basic essence of reverse gamma scalping is to do additive and subtractive delta adjustments over time to keep delta fairly neutral so that theta can do its dirty work. Shown here is my full ARKK position that started as a delta neutral iron condor to which (a) I layered in an additional iron condor as a delta adjustment trade; (b) mixed and matched profitable put side with profitable call side to reduce units and/or risk; and (c) did an additive long delta short put vertical as a delta adjustment. Rather than continue showing each of these additive/subtractive delta adjustments as separate trades, I'm setting out the full banana here. I've collected a net 3.22 in credits on a buying power effect of 11.78, and the position has a delta/theta ratio of -2.09/6.00. With 36 days to go, I'll primarily look at doing profitable subtractive adjustments first; then additive ones.
AMEX:ARKK
by NaughtyPines
Gold prices continue to increase from the level 2675OANDA:XAUUSD continuing the uptrend in local and medium-term timeframes. The price is once again testing strong resistance levels on the H4 chart, with prospects for a breakout toward the 2700–2750 range. The US Dollar remains near weekly lows, touched after weaker-than-expected US PPI data on Tuesday, providing key support for the market, including gold. Attention now shifts to the upcoming CPI report, a critical release that could reshape market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. A stronger-than-expected CPI could increase pressure on gold, while a weaker report would bolster buying momentum. Additionally, the Fed’s hawkish stance is supported by the premise that Trump, beginning his second term next week, may drive inflation higher with protectionist policies. From a technical perspective, significant volume lies ahead, which could trigger a minor pullback toward support before the uptrend resumes. Key short-term levels to watch: Support: 2678, 2670 Resistance: 2690, 2697 However, in both the short and medium term, everything hinges on the upcoming scheduled news. Stay focused on these critical levels, traders! Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
Opening (IRA): TMF Feb 28th 35 Covered Call... for a 33.98 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV at 40.7/44.2, which is no surprise, since this is a bullish 3 x leveraged 20 year paper exchange-traded fund. It does have a dividend that pays out quarterly in March, June, September, and December (annualized yield of 4.71%). Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Using the February 28th expiry to keep things in that 45 DTE wheelhouse and will look to add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 33.98/share Max Profit: 1.02 ROC at Max: 3.00% 50% Max: .51 ROC at 50% Max: 1.50% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in-profit short call out to reduce my break even.
AMEX:TMFLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): MSTR 2x225/2x240/460/490 Iron Condor... for a 7.00 credit. Comments: IV remains high here at 112.4%. Going "double double" (put spread half the width of the call spread, but 2 x the number of contracts) to accommodate skew. Earnings are on 2/4, so will probably want to get out before then. Metrics: Max Profit: 7.00 Buying Power Effect: 23.00 ROC at Max: 30.43% 50% Max: 3.50 ROC at 50% Max: 15.22% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in untested side on side test to about half the delta of the tested side. Given earnings on the horizon, will naturally just money/take/run for less if presented with the opportunity.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): URTY February 21st 41 Covered Call... for a 39.07 debit. Comments: Adding in at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. I would prefer using TNA, since it's more liquid and has more expiries available, but already have a position on in TNA where the short call strike is at or above the -75, so don't want to add here. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 39.07/share Max Profit: 1.93 ROC at Max: 4.94% 50% Max: .97 ROC at 50% Max: 2.47% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call if the setup doesn't hit my take profit.
AMEX:URTYLong
by NaughtyPines