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GOLD → The FED Rate Decision Ahead: What Should You Do?Dear Traders, Gold (XAUUSD) has made a notable move, successfully testing the strong support level at 2633 before traders shifted into buying mode. As a result, the price broke above 2643, sparking new optimism as upcoming discussions around potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (FED) take center stage. Currently, there is a 93% probability that the FED will cut rates by 25 basis points. However, the overarching theme is the FED's stance for the future. Hawkish hints regarding 2025 could influence the rate-cutting trajectory, an aspect the market has only partially priced in. This means any indication of a smaller rate cut could fuel strength for the U.S. dollar. Conversely, a deeper cut could act as a bullish catalyst for gold. The spotlight is firmly on FED Chair Jerome Powell's comments, as they will provide crucial insights into the economic outlook for 2024 amidst the backdrop of Trump-era policies that continue to play a pivotal role. That said, downside risks for gold remain elevated, particularly if the FED maintains a hawkish stance in the current climate. Technical Analysis: At the moment, gold prices are consolidating within the range of 2658 - 2633, with a breakout in either direction likely to bring about a strong momentum-driven move. The market is complex and highly volatile right now, which is why traders are advised to hold off on entering positions before the event. Waiting for volatility to subside can offer better clarity on market direction and safer opportunities. Final Advice: Patience is key in such turbulent times. Avoid getting swayed by short-term noise and focus on acting only after a clear trend emerges following the major event.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
Opening (IRA): XBI February 21st 85 Covered Call... for an 83.01 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 83.01/share Max Profit: 1.99 ROC at Max: 2.40% 50% Max: 1.00 ROC at 50% Max: 1.20% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
AMEX:XBILong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 21st 50 Covered Call... for a 47.07 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV (88.4/68.6) + weakness post-FOMC. Going out to February, as there are only 30 DTE left in January, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Looking at this as a "starter" position, so will look to add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.07/share Max Profit: 2.93 ROC at Max: 6.22% 50% Max: 1.47 ROC at 50% Max: 3.11% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
2
Opening (IRA): SMH January 17th 235 Covered Call... for a 230.52 debit. Comments: Mostly in this to attempt to grab the annual divvy ... . Last year, it was 1.04/share, but it has been widely variant from year to year (e.g., 2.40 in 2022; 1.57 in 2021; 1.50 in 2020). Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 230.52/Share Max Profit: 4.48 ROC at Max: 1.94% 50% Max: 2.24 ROC at 50% Max: .97% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, but may take profit early if the dividend turns out to be non-chump change.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
USDJPY → Price Struggles at Resistance, Eyes a PullbackHello, my wonderful friends of Ben! Recently, USDJPY has been struggling to maintain its peak around the 154.00 USD level. The bullish momentum of USDJPY has been hindered by several factors, including the ongoing Fed interest rate meeting. Fundamentally, today is a critical day for the market. At 19:00 GMT, the Fed’s interest rate meeting, with a 93% probability of a 0.25% rate cut decision, will take place. This will make the dollar less attractive. If the dollar starts to adjust downward, it will affect the corresponding currency pairs. However, I do not rule out the possibility that, amidst high volatility, the price could form a retest of the resistance level and a false breakout. Personally, Ben expects the price to consolidate below the resistance area around 155.00, with corrective pressure against the trend dominating in the near future. The current support level is around 152.01. If this level is breached, it could lead USDJPY to a deeper decline, potentially reaching 149.37. Best regards, Bentradegold!
Short
by Bentradegold
3
GBPUSD: Breaking the trend line!GBPUSD is currently trading around 1.2705 and has not changed much since the start of the trading session. Early Tuesday morning, data released by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the ILO Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.3% in the three months to October, as expected. During the period, Employment Change increased by 173,000, while annual wage inflation, measured by Average Earnings excluding bonuses, increased to 5.2% from 4.9%. Although the negative shift in risk sentiment has helped the US dollar gain ground in the European session, the GBP/USD pair remains flat but could fall as the bullish trendline and technical factors are broken.
Short
by Trader-Briannnn
Opening (IRA): EWY July 18th 35C/February 21st -55C PMCC*... for an 18.17 debit. Comments: Back into EWY, after missing out on the dividend due to my shares being called away. Since there is no longer a dividend to be had, going with a Poor Man's Covered Call/long call diagonal, buying the longer-dated 90 delta strike and selling a shorter-dated call that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long, resulting in a setup that has a break even slightly below where the underlying is currently trading. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 18.17 Break Even: 53.17 Max Profit: 1.83 ROC at Max: 10.07% 50% Max: .92 ROC at 50% Max: 5.04% Delta/Theta: 46.50/.751 Will look to money/take/run at 50% max.
AMEX:EWYLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TLT February 21st 87 Covered Call... for a 85.97 debit. Comments: Going long at or near November lows, selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, with the built-in defense of the short call. I'm also looking to snag the January and potentially the February dividends here. This is a bit longer-dated than I ordinarily like to go, but I'm not doing a ton here besides waiting for January setups to come in/be managed. The obvious variant is to sell the standard -30 delta against: TLT Feb 21st 94 covered call, 89.72 debit, 4.28 max. 4.77% ROC at max where the short call is paying >1% of the strike price in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 85.97/share Max Profit (ex. dividends): 1.03 ROC at Max: 1.20% 50% Max: .52 ROC at 50% Max: .60% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max after at least the January dividend drops.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): EWY January 17th 52 Covered Call... for a 51.50 debit. Comments: Primarily in this for the dividend, since the ROC %-age without it kind of blows chunks. The last four distributions were: .63, 1.68, .70, and 1.65. Would appreciate something in the neighborhood of 1.00 (please and thank you) ... . Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 51.50/share Max Profit: .50 ROC at Max (Excluding Dividends): .97% I generally look to take profit on these at 50% max, but will wait for the dividend to drop to see what's what ... .
AMEX:EWYLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): IBIT Jan 17th 50 Covered Call... for a 47.76 debit. Comments: High IV at 65.3%. Selling the -75 call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. This isn't the best entry (an understatement), but am looking at it as a starter position which I will add to, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on. Previously, I was working BITO due to its monthly dividend, but it suffers from "rollover risk" and BITO IV is higher on the put side than on the call, making selling puts more productive in that instrument, kind of defeating the reason why you might want to be in that instrument -- the dividends, for which you have to be in stock. IBIT IV is higher on the call side than BITO, making covered calls more productive from a max profit standpoint. (The max of the Jan 17th 50 short put, 24 delta, is 1.77 here versus 2.24 for the monied covered call). Alas, the trade-off is ... no dividends. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.76/share Max Profit: 2.24 ROC at Max: 4.70% 50% Max: 1.12 ROC at 50% Max: 2.35% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll the short call out on break of my take profit (which is (50.00 - 47.76)/2 + 47.76 or 48.88.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
Little bull call spread on StellantisI believe we are in the end of an accumulation. We had bad news lately about this company and his CEO. I don't want to own the stock, specially in this part of the economic cycle. This is purely a speculative trade. There is a divergence in the awesome oscillator marking a possible end of the bear trend and right after, a period of low volatility characteristic of accumulations as we can see in the multiple historical volatility oscillator below. A spring a few days ago confirmed there were strong buyers. Now we are against the trendline. So, I believe it's cheap (from ~€25 went down to ~€12,50) and it should make a bullish move shortly. Strategy: Bull call spread Expiration: 17 JAN 2025 (45 days to expiration) Legs = +2 calls 13 and -2 calls 14 Premium = 0.27 * 100 stocks * 2 q per leg = €54 Max gain= €146 Risk / Reward = 2.7 Commissions= €1.5 (only open) Break-even = From 13.27 (lower call + premium) Historical Volatility (45 days) = 35,85% Implicit Volatility = ~31% In English: If the underlying (the stock) arrives at 13.27 I start earning money. If it gets to 14 or if it surpasses this price, I get to the max reward. I can lose at the most €54 + commisions even if the stock goes to €1. The blue lines in the chart represent Breakeven, Max reward price and Expiration so I can follow the underlying. Now it's time to follow the DOM for each option. I hope this process of thought helps you in your trades, specially if you are now to options.
EURONEXT:STLAPLong
by NicolasRZ
GOLD--> Testing $2700: What Awaits with Upcoming PPI?OANDA:XAUUSD at the time of writing, prices are fluctuating around $2706, down 0.42% for the day, with not enough momentum to break the $2711 level. Meanwhile, buyers seem to have paused as the market prepares for the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. This report is expected to shed more light on the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory, keeping investors cautious. While prices are currently hovering around a minor pullback, some fundamental factors suggest that any drop may only be short-lived. Treasury yields have steadily declined throughout the year, a trend that typically supports gold. Moreover, persistent geopolitical tensions remain a strong driver for safe-haven demand, reinforcing the allure of the yellow metal. On inflation, while consumer prices have stopped rising aggressively, they remain stable. This stability makes it almost certain that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a 25 basis-point rate cut at its December 17-18 policy meeting. In fact, traders are pricing in a 96% probability of this move, up from 86% before the recent inflation report. From a technical perspective, gold is attempting to escape its main range, breaking key resistance. The focus is on $2700 and $2670. If buyers hold their ground in this region even after the news, prices will continue to grow in the future, as key liquidity zones remain untested. This projected growth is expected to reach levels such as $2758 and $2790. Always stay ahead of the market with Bentradegold—your trusted source for analysis and deep insights!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
GOLD → Wedge has formed. What next?OANDA:XAUUSD consolidation has been completed as investors rush to take profits after the precious metal’s consecutive price increases, reaching the highest level in more than 5 weeks earlier in the session. Prices are currently testing the gap around 2683 - 2670 (FVG). What’s next? Focusing on policy guidance related to the future of U.S. policies is crucial to determining the certainty of the market's next bullish wave. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at next week's policy meeting. Alex Ebkarian, CEO of Allegiance Gold, notes that the Fed is in a very difficult position as the likelihood of a rate cut next week increases, but inflation remains elevated. From a technical perspective, gold is attempting to escape the battlefield, crossing a key resistance level. A breakout at 2687 has already been established. In theory, the development tends to push prices higher. If gold breaks out of the resistance size, it will provide distribution momentum. Conversely, prices may consolidate further. Ultimately, everything depends on the dollar. Best regards, Bentradegold !
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
Opening (IRA): URTY January 17th 51 Covered Call.. for a 49.25 debit. Comments: With my usual leveraged go-to TQQQ in kind of the IV doldrums (IVR 18.1/IV 49.6), opting for a play in URTY with its 63.4% 30-Day IV instead. It's not as liquid and doesn't have nearly as robust an options chain as TQQQ, but I will make do. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 49.25/share Max Profit: 1.75 ROC at Max: 3.55% 50% Max: .88 ROC at 50% Max: 1.78% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on test of take profit price, and add should I be able to get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on.
AMEX:URTYLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TAN January 17th 33 Covered Call... for a 32.29 debit. Comments: ETF IV > 35% with 30-day currently at 39.7%. Adding to my position at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Dinking and doinking on "little stuff" running into year's end ... . Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 32.29/share Max Profit: .71 ROC at Max: 2.20% 50% Max: .36 ROC at 50% Max: 1.10% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
AMEX:TANLong
by NaughtyPines