$QQQ Quick Market Crash from TOMORROW (or Fri) Till June 4th1. Everything fits perfectly into place from a Fibonacci POV.
2. Jamie Dimon (who likes to give passive bearish opinions) said today that he thinks Private Credit debt investments, like BCRED, Pimco Flex Cred, which are basically Privatized bonds, could become an ugly nightmare for grandma's or innocent investors, that are trying to get their money out and can't because of liquidation limits. Liqudation limits have been put on the Private REITS already (BRIET and Starwood Capitol REIT). But Private Credit Funds are made up of the same bullsh NYSE:T as in the movie "The BIG SHORT", those are collaterized debt obligations, that's right.
3. Interest rates, specifically the %-!) Year Treasury rates have SPIKED the last 2 days and mortgage rates will certainly follow suit, making home buying even harder. (again).
This will cause an already shaky real estate market, even shakier.
"SHAKE SHAKE SHAKE, Shake yo Booty"
4 This Bearish correction trend should start sharply with the initial drop ending at around Tues, June 4th, at approximately between 10am - 1pm.
5, In total, after a B wave up, we could see a bear market into Middle to End of July.
6.
a. My bearish trade will start with Credit Call Spreads, Aug 19th expiration, with the short calls at 0.25 Delta, the long calls will be around 0.10-0.05 delta.
b. Then I may take 1/2 of all that premium and start buying deep OTM puts with same expiration, and then just buy and sell those into July, but keeping the Credit Call spread in placed till 21 DTE, approx July 20th, when they should be near worthless.
Optionsstrategies
BANK NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 30 MAY 2024BUY ABOVE - 48660
SL - 48540
TARGETS - 48860,49050,49290
SELL BELOW - 48400
SL - 48660
TARGETS - 48250,48110,47990
NO TRADE ZONE - 48400 to 48660
Previous Day High - 49050
Previous Day Low - 48400
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
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BANK NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 29 MAY 2024BUY ABOVE - 49290
SL - 49050
TARGETS - 49480,49670,49850
SELL BELOW - 49050
SL - 49290
TARGETS - 48800,48620,48460
NO TRADE ZONE - 49050 to 49290
Previous Day High - 49480
Previous Day Low - 49050
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
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NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 29 MAY 2024BUY ABOVE - 22950
SL - 22900
TARGETS - 23000,23100,23180
SELL BELOW - 22850
SL - 22900
TARGETS - 22780,22710,22640
NO TRADE ZONE - 22850 to 22950
Previous Day High - 23000
Previous Day Low - 22850
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
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BANK NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 28 MAY 2024BUY ABOVE - 49480
SL - 49290
TARGETS - 49670,49850,50000
SELL BELOW - 49290
SL - 49480
TARGETS - 49050,48800,48620
NO TRADE ZONE - 49050 to 49670
Previous Day High - 49670
Previous Day Low - 49050
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
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NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 28 MAY 2024BUY ABOVE - 22960
SL - 22910
TARGETS - 23020,23100,23180
SELL BELOW - 22910
SL - 22960
TARGETS - 22850,22780,22780
NO TRADE ZONE - 22910 to 22960
Previous Day High - 23100
Previous Day Low - 22910
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
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BANK NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 28 MAY 2024BUY ABOVE - 49010
SL - 48800
TARGETS - 49250,49480,49610
SELL BELOW - 48800
SL - 49010
TARGETS - 48620,48460,48250
NO TRADE ZONE - 48800 to 49010
Previous Day High - 49010
Previous Day Low - 48620
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
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Closing (IRA): SMH 205/215 Short Put Vertical... for a .87 debit.
Comments: First part of an adjustment trade. Instead of rolling the short put vertical aspect of my 205/215/255/265 up to delta balance, I'm closing it out.
Then, I'll re-erect a 2 x 5 (the equivalent of a 10-wide) to delta balance against the call side, whose short leg is at the 32 delta.
Opening (IRA): TQQQ June 28th 53 Monied Covered Call... for a 51.52 debit.
Comments: Re-upping in the June 28th expiry with a monied covered call, as there is no July yet. Selling the -75 delta call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put to have built-in defense via the short call and to take advantage of call side IV skew.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 51.52
Max Profit: 1.48
ROC at Max: 2.87%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.44%
Will generally look to take profit on the entire setup at 50% max.
Options Blueprint Series: Backspreads as a Portfolio Hedge1. Introduction
Backspreads are a versatile options strategy as they allow traders to benefit from significant moves in the underlying asset, particularly when there is an expectation of increased volatility.
2. Understanding Backspreads
A backspread is an advanced options strategy involving the sale of a small number of options and the purchase of a larger number of out-of-the-money options. This setup creates a position that benefits from large price movements in the underlying asset.
3. Generic Uses of Backspreads
Backspreads offer traders a flexible tool to capitalize on significant price movements and shifts in market volatility. Here are some common uses:
Market Sentiment Alignment:
Bullish Sentiment (Call Backspreads): Traders use call backspreads when they expect a significant upward move. This strategy involves selling a smaller number of lower-strike call options and buying a larger number of higher-strike call options.
Bearish Sentiment (Put Backspreads): Conversely, put backspreads are used when traders anticipate a significant downward move. This involves selling a smaller number of higher-strike put options and buying a larger number of lower-strike put options.
Volatility Trading:
Backspreads are particularly useful in trading volatility. They create positions with positive Vega, meaning they benefit from increases in implied volatility. This makes backspreads an excellent choice during times of market uncertainty or expected volatility spikes.
4. Hedging an Equity Portfolio using with S&P 500 Futures Put Backspreads
Put backspreads offer an effective way to hedge a long equity portfolio against sharp downward moves. By setting up a put backspread, traders can create a position that not only provides downside protection but also benefits from increased market volatility.
Setting Up a Put Backspread for Hedging:
Sell 1 OTM Put: The initial step involves selling one out-of-the-money (OTM) put option. This option will generate a premium, which can be used to offset the cost of the puts that will be purchased.
Buy 2 Lower OTM Puts: Next, purchase two lower OTM put options. These options will provide the necessary downside protection. Depending on the strike selected, the cost of these puts will be fully or partially covered by the premium received from selling the higher-strike put.
Constructing a Positive Vega Position:
The structure of the put backspread results in a position with positive Vega. This characteristic is particularly valuable as volatility typically rises during periods of sharp declines.
Risk Profile:
Below is the risk profile of a put backspread used for hedging purposes as described in section #6 below.
5. Market Scenarios
Understanding how a put backspread behaves under different market scenarios is crucial for effective trade management and risk mitigation. Here, we explore the potential outcomes:
Market Moving Up or Staying the Same: Flat P&L
If the market moves up or remains around the current level, the put backspread will likely expire worthless.
Market Moving Down Sharply: Increased Profitability
If the market experiences a sharp decline, the put backspread would potentially become profitable.
Impact of Increased Volatility: Enhanced Gains
A rise in implied volatility benefits the put backspread as higher volatility increases the value of the bought puts more than the sold put, adding to the overall profitability of the strategy.
Maximum Risk and Trade Management:
Maximum Risk: Limited to the difference between the strike prices minus the net credit received (or plus the net debit paid).
Trade Management: It is essential to actively manage the position.
6. Trade Example
To illustrate the application of a put backspread as a hedge, let's consider a detailed trade example using S&P 500 Futures Options.
Trade Rationale:
Current Market Condition: The S&P 500 Futures have just created a new all-time high, indicating that the market is at a crucial juncture. From this point, the market could either continue its upward trajectory or experience a severe change of direction.
Implied Volatility (VIX): The VIX, which measures the implied volatility of options, is currently very low at 11.99. This low volatility environment makes it an ideal time to enter a backspread, as any future increase in volatility will significantly benefit the position.
Trade Setup:
Underlying Asset: S&P 500 Futures
Current Price: 5447
Strategy: Put Backspread
Expiration Date: December 2024
Specifics:
Sell 1 OTM Put: Sell 1 4600 put option
Buy 2 Lower OTM Puts: Buy 2 4100 put options
Entry Price:
Sell 1 4600 Put: Receive $2,160 premium per contract (43.2 points)
Buy 2 4100 Puts: Pay $1,068.5 premium each; total $2,137 for two contracts (21.37 points x 2)
Net Cost:
The net cost of the backspread is the premium paid for the bought puts minus the premium received from the sold put.
Net Cost: $2,137 (paid) - $2,160 (received) = $23 net credit
As seen below, we are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts.
Maximum Risk:
500 – 0.46 = 499.54 points (distance between strike prices minus the net credit received).
7. Importance of Risk Management
Risk management is a fundamental aspect of successful trading and investing. It involves identifying, analyzing, and mitigating potential risks to protect capital and maximize returns. When implementing a put backspread as a portfolio hedge, understanding and applying robust risk management practices is crucial.
Using Stop Loss Orders and Hedging Techniques:
Stop Loss Orders: Placing stop loss orders helps limit potential losses by automatically closing a position when the market reaches a certain price level. This ensures that losses do not exceed a predetermined amount, providing a safety net against adverse market movements.
Hedging Techniques: Utilizing hedging strategies, such as combining put backspreads with other options or futures contracts, can provide additional layers of protection. This approach can help manage risk more effectively by diversifying exposure and reducing the impact of unfavorable market conditions.
Importance of Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure:
Defined Risk Strategies: Employing strategies with clearly defined risk parameters, such as put backspreads, ensures that potential losses are limited and known in advance. This contrasts with strategies that expose traders to unlimited risk, which can lead to catastrophic losses.
Position Sizing: Properly sizing positions based on risk tolerance and account size is essential. This involves calculating the maximum potential loss and ensuring it aligns with the trader's risk management plan.
Precise Entries and Exits:
Entry Points: Entering trades at optimal levels, based on technical analysis, support and resistance and UFO levels, and market conditions, enhances the probability of success. In the case of put backspreads, entering when volatility is low and market conditions are favorable increases the potential for profitability.
Exit Points: Setting clear exit points, including profit targets and stop loss levels, helps manage risk and lock in gains. Regularly reviewing and adjusting these levels based on market developments ensures that positions remain aligned with the trader's overall strategy.
Continuous Monitoring and Adjustment:
Regular Review: Continuously monitoring market conditions, position performance, and risk parameters is essential for effective risk management. This involves staying informed about economic events, market trends, and changes in volatility.
Adjustments: Making timely adjustments to positions, such as rolling options, adjusting stop loss levels, or hedging with additional instruments, helps manage risk dynamically and adapt to changing market conditions.
By incorporating these risk management practices, traders can effectively use put backspreads to hedge their portfolios and protect against significant market downturns.
8. Conclusion
In summary, put backspreads offer a powerful tool for hedging long equity portfolios, especially in low volatility environments and/or when markets are at all-time highs. By understanding the mechanics of put backspreads, their application in various market scenarios, and the importance of active risk management, traders can enhance their ability to protect their investments and capitalize on market opportunities.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
BANK NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 23 MAY 2024BUY ABOVE - 47990
SL - 47860
TARGETS - 48110,48250,48460
SELL BELOW - 47760
SL - 47860
TARGETS - 47580,47400,47200
NO TRADE ZONE - 47760 to 47990
Previous Day High - 48110
Previous Day Low - 47400
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement
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NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 23/05/2024BUY ABOVE - 22640
SL - 22590
TARGETS - 22710,22780,22830
SELL BELOW - 22550
SL - 22590
TARGETS - 22500,22440,22350
NO TRADE ZONE - 22550 to 22640
Previous Day High - 22640
Previous Day Low - 22500
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
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BANK NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 22/05/2024BUY ABOVE - 48250
SL - 48110
TARGETS - 48460,48660,48800
SELL BELOW - 47990
SL - 48110
TARGETS - 47860,47730,47570
NO TRADE ZONE - 47990 to 48100
Previous Day High - 48250
Previous Day Low - 47990
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
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NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 22/05/2024BUY ABOVE - 22550
SL - 22500
TARGETS - 22590,22640,22710
SELL BELOW - 22500
SL - 22550
TARGETS - 22440,22350,22300
NO TRADE ZONE - 22500 to 22550
Previous Day High - 22590
Previous Day Low - 22440
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
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Opening (IRA): BITO July 19th 30 Covered Call... for a 26.12 debit.
Comments: Re-upping after closing out my longer-dated covered call (which I had rolled all the way out to December).
Selling the -30 delta call against long stock here. As before, will look to roll out the short call for duration at 50% max, collect the monthly dividend along the way ... . I'll also look at selling short put, assuming I can get in on weakness and with a resulting break even better than what I currently have on.
BANK NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 21 MAY 2024BUY ABOVE - 48200
SL - 48020
TARGETS - 48460,48660,48800
SELL BELOW - 48020
SL - 48200
TARGETS - 47860,47860,47570
NO TRADE ZONE - 48020 to 48200
Previous Day High - 48200
Previous Day Low - 47730
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
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NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 21 MAY 2024BUY ABOVE - 22500
SL - 22430
TARGETS - 22550,22600,22640
SELL BELOW - 22430
SL - 22500
TARGETS - 22350,22300,22230
NO TRADE ZONE - 22430 to 22500
Previous Day High - 22500
Previous Day Low - 22350
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
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Closed (IRA): SMH July 19th 189/199/275/285 Iron Condor... for a 1.17 debit.
Comments: Mixing and matching profitable put wing with profitable call wing from iron condors put on at different times (See Posts Below) to de-risk running into NVDA earnings on 5/22. (NVDA is around 21% of SMH holdings).
The resulting setup is a July 19th 205/215/255/265 on which I've collected a net 3.23 in credits; delta/theta -.28/3.45.
I'll look at doing a delta adjustment post-earnings if necessary.
Extreme Weather Sends Wheat Prices SurgingWheat plays a critical role in global agriculture and trade. Extreme weather has turned wheat prices bullish, rising more than 22% in a month after having languished for more than two years.
After reaching their lowest level in more than three years in March 2024, prices have rebounded strongly. Wheat rally is driven by extreme weather events in multiple places compounded by supply-demand imbalances.
Wheat rally is far from over. The May 2024 WASDE report painted a surprisingly positive outlook for wheat, suggesting an increase in US production. Outlook may be too optimistic, making revisions likely. Prices face risk to the upside once weather impact is comprehensively reassessed.
This paper posits a long position in wheat options benefiting not only from price appreciation and from expanding volatility.
WASDE PAINTS A POSITIVE WHEAT OUTLOOK
Recent WASDE report provides initial forecasts for 2024/25 marketing year (MY24/25) and updates projections for the current MY. These updates are crucial for estimating ending stocks which will be carried over to the next year.
Global production is expected to grow 1.3% in the upcoming MY to 798.19MT. Projections are even more optimistic for the US crop. USDA expects US wheat production in MY24/25 to be 3% higher YoY and total supplies to be almost 6% higher YoY.
Source: USDA
WHEAT CROPS ARE GETTING IMPACTED BY SEVERE WEATHER
Russia is the largest wheat exporter commanding 24% of total global exports. Russia has been hit by severe frost and cold.
Three of Russia’s key grain producing regions have declared a state of emergency, stating that May frost has caused severe damage to crops, reports Reuters . This year’s crop output will be lower. Frost linked damage follows record hot April which also harmed wheat crops.
The USDA has reduced its outlook for Russian wheat production by 3.5MT which might be an underestimate given widespread damage. WASDE report was released merely two days after Russia declared emergency, leaving USDA with little to no time to assess the impact.
STOCKS-TO-USE NEAR ALL-TIME-LOW
Data Source: PSD
Stocks to Use levels at major wheat exporters is currently at a 16-year low at 13.8%. It is expected to drop further to a record low of 12.4% in the upcoming MY24/25.
Low stocks-to-use ratio suggests that supplies are tight. Ending stocks are low relative to total consumption. Low stock-to-use ratios make prices extremely sensitive to minor shocks in physical markets.
MANAGED MONEY HAVE REVERSED COURSE ON WHEAT BEARISHNESS
Sentiment is shifting rapidly. Asset managers have been net short on wheat futures since 2022. This trend has reversed sharply over the last month with asset managers cutting short positioning by 70%. Net short positioning is at its lowest level since October 2022. Last week, asset managers continued to reduce their short positioning (down 35% over the past month) while also increasing their long positioning.
Source: CME QuikStrike
Bullish sentiment prevails with a put/call ratio of 0.57 in wheat options. Calls dominate both near-term and later contracts. Recent options market trading has been bullish for later expires.
Despite strong rally, implied volatility is lower than the levels seen last year and even during late 2022 signalling potential IV expansion.
Source: CME CVOL
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Wheat faces multifaceted upside risks stemming from weather-driven uncertainty and damage which may not have been factored into USDA’s supply outlook. Wheat supply also faces the risk of disruption from record low stocks-to-use ratio.
Wheat prices are up 22% over the last one month. A long futures position may be impacted negatively by a near-term correction. Instead, a long call position offers limited downside and substantial upside from expanding volatility and rising prices.
TradingView recently launched options suite brings traders a raft of options analytical tools. Wheat options chain can be visualised clearly.
Options IV across a range of expiries to identify key strike levels can also be visualised.
Strategy simulator enables evaluation of various strategies intuitively by visualizing the payoff based on not only price but also expansion or contraction of IV or time-decay.
The above hypothetical trade setup shows the payoff for a simple long call position in OZWU24 contract expiring on 23/August at a strike price of 750.
The premium for this option as of 17/May stood at 33 cents/bushel which results in a premium of USD 1,650 for a full options contract consisting of 5,000 bushels.
The above position breaks even at USc 783. If IV expands by 2%, the position would break even at USc 778.
Assuming constant IV, the:
• trade delivers profit of 1,850, if prices rise to 820.
• option expires worthless leading to a loss of 1,650 if prices remain below strike.
The options simulator features simple and intuitive interface enabling visualization of common options strategies. The tool also enables users to easily create and customize trading strategies.
Alternative to a long call, the bull call spread provides a pre-determined maximum profit and loss. The long call benefits from price rise and volatility expansion.
While short call offsets long call premium reducing potential losses. However, the profit potential is limited because any appreciation beyond the short call strike is negated by equivalent losses from the short position.
Bull Call Spread consists of a long call at a strike of USc 680 and a short call at a higher strike of USc 700. The width of the spread is set at 2 (700-680), a wider range can offer higher upside and reward/risk ratio, but it is only viable when the expected move is large.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
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NU Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought NU before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NU Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 11.50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-5-17,
for a premium of approximately $0.67.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
DOCS Doximity Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought DOCS before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DOCS Doximity prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 25usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $1.15.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
GOTU Gaotu Techedu Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought GOTU before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GOTU Gaotu Techedu prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 9usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-7-19,
for a premium of approximately $1.12.
The chart looks bearish, but my bet is on a China recovery this year!
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.