#nifty50 Bhalu bhaiya maan jaao :)Nifty ended the week at 22,124, down 670 points from the previous week's close, with a high of 22,668 and a low of 22,104. As I highlighted last week, the formation of a gravestone doji was a bearish signal, indicating the market was under the influence of selling pressure—and we’ve now witnessed the impact of that pattern. Currently, Nifty is testing the critical support at the WEMA100 level, which could trigger a bounce. However, any rally should be seen as an opportunity to enter fresh short positions.
As mentioned last week, if Nifty closed below the 22,400 level on the monthly chart, we were likely to see further correction, and that’s exactly what transpired. While it may sound negative, I anticipate the index heading toward the 19,500 mark . For long-term investors, there’s no need for concern. This pullback could offer a prime opportunity to buy fundamentally strong stocks at attractive prices. Traders, on the other hand, should focus on a “sell on rise” strategy instead of attempting to pick a bottom and risking substantial losses.
Turning to the S&P 500, as I pointed out last week, the bearish M-pattern was in play. From the recent high of 6043, we’ve seen a 3.5% correction. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a long-legged candle, signaling that demand is emerging from lower levels. For the past four months, the S&P 500 has struggled to break through the significant resistance at 6000, failing to close above it on a monthly basis. A decisive monthly close above 6000 could open the door for the index to reach higher levels, potentially targeting 6225, 6376, 6454, and 6568.
In conclusion, the market remains under pressure, with Nifty at a key support level and the S&P 500 facing resistance. Investors should remain focused on long-term opportunities, while traders should be cautious and adopt a disciplined approach to navigating the current market volatility. Stay strategic, stay patient, and let the market unfold.
Optionsstrategies
Gold price update: Sharp decline from all-time high!Dear friends!
Global gold prices have fallen to their lowest level in over a week, driven by the strengthening U.S. dollar. Investors are closely watching key inflation data, which could provide important clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has risen by 0.2%, pushing the USD Index (.DXY) further away from its 11-week low. This appreciation makes gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies.
On the other hand, U.S. President Donald Trump has raised hopes of a one-month delay in imposing higher tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, while also proposing a 25% tariff on European automobiles and goods. This uncertainty has driven investors toward the U.S. dollar, adding further pressure on gold prices, which were already facing profit-taking pressure after reaching record highs.
EURUSD: Bearish Wave Continues to Dominate!EURUSD continued its downward trajectory on Thursday, losing nearly 0.9% and slipping below the key 1.0400 support level for the first time in nearly two weeks. The decline was driven by strong USD buying pressure across the market.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) reclaimed the 107.00 level, reaching a fresh six-day high, supported by a modest uptick in both U.S. and German bond yields. The dollar’s strength reflects ongoing concerns over U.S. tariffs and fresh doubts about the health of the U.S. economy, following weaker-than-expected economic data in recent days. These factors have weighed heavily on EURUSD.
From a technical perspective, the pair has broken below an ascending trendline, confirming a shift in momentum towards the downside. This reinforces the bearish outlook, as no clear bottom formation has been established yet. If EURUSD stages a recovery, it is likely to encounter resistance near the confluence zone of the EMA 34, EMA 89, and the newly formed resistance area, which could trigger renewed selling pressure. For now, the bearish bias remains intact, with further downside potential unless a decisive recovery above the resistance zone materializes.
GBPUSD: The trend of discounts prevails?Hello everyone, great to have you back for today's discussion on GBPUSD!
Currently, GBPUSD has extended its decline, trading below 1.2600 as market pressure intensifies. Risk sentiment has worsened following a series of U.S. economic data releases, which indicate weakness in the overall U.S. economy while also signaling a persistent rise in core inflationary pressures.
From a technical standpoint, the pair has broken below the ascending trendline, confirming a bearish breakout. The bearish momentum remains strong, with no clear signs of a bottom forming yet. If GBPUSD stages a corrective pullback, it is likely to face resistance around the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone, which aligns with the confluence of EMA 34, EMA 89, and the newly established resistance area. This setup could reinforce selling pressure, making it a key level to watch.
TSLA - support & resistant areas for today Feb 27, 2025Here are the key support and resistance levels for TSLA today, which may indicate where the price could reverse or consolidate. These levels might signal potential long (buy) or short (sell) positions for traders.
Calculated using mathematical models, these levels are relevant for today’s trading session and may change in the future.
If you find this helpful and want to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, please support me by boosting this post and following me. Your engagement is appreciated! If this post doesn't receive more than 10 boosts, I may reconsider these daily updates. Thank you!
SPY - support & resistant areas for today Feb 28, 2025Here are the key support and resistance levels for SPY today, indicating potential reversal or consolidation points. A bounce off these levels may signal long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
These levels are calculated using mathematical models relevant for today's trading session. They may change in the future.
If you find this helpful and want daily insights at 9:30 AM, please boost this post and follow me. Your engagement supports continued updates. Thank you!
GOLD → False breakdown before further declineOANDA:XAUUSD updating lows within the changing local trend structure. The price is currently testing the liquidity zone at 2852, with a potential rebound before further downside movement.
Gold registered its lowest level in two weeks, dropping below $2,900 in Asia on Friday, breaking an eight-week bullish streak. The metal remains under pressure from the stronger U.S. dollar, influenced by Trump's tariff policies and U.S. economic conditions. Trump confirmed that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect as scheduled on March 4 and also threatened to impose a 25% tariff on European Union imports, along with an additional 10% on Chinese goods. Additionally, weak U.S. GDP data (2.3% in Q4) and rising jobless claims have further supported the dollar. Traders are now awaiting the U.S. PCE Price Index to assess the Fed's interest rate outlook and its impact on gold.
A false breakdown at 2852 could trigger a retracement toward the 0.618 Fibonacci imbalance zone at 2877 or the 0.5 level at 2885 before resuming the decline. Given both weak fundamental and technical conditions, gold may attempt to retest its recent lows.
Best regards, Bentradegold!
Gold breaks out of consolidation, facing bearish pressureGold has officially exited its previous consolidation phase, experiencing a sharp decline from the $2,950 region and reaching a low near $2,878. The breakdown of the rising wedge pattern has triggered increased selling pressure, confirming a shift in momentum towards the downside.
Currently, gold is making a slight recovery, trading around $2,919. However, the bearish trend remains dominant, leaving the price vulnerable to further downside moves. If gold fails to reclaim the $2,930 - $2,940 zone, the downward momentum may persist, targeting $2,905 as the first support level, with a potential extension toward $2,879.
Wishing you successful trades!
EURUSD: Strong preference for selling strategy!Dear friends!
EURUSD continues to sustain losses below 1.0500 during the early trading hours on Thursday. The pair is under pressure due to the recovery of the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) weakens following former US President Donald Trump's threat to impose a 25% tariff on the European Union. This development has prevented EURUSD from making significant gains, keeping it limited below the 1.052 resistance level, marked by two recent peaks.
In the short term, EURUSD remains well-supported by bulls around the key support zone of 1.0462. However, this upward move appears to be a temporary consolidation before a potential strong decline, as indicated by the unchanged EMA 34 and 89 levels and a shift in momentum towards a bearish trend. My primary strategy focuses on selling, aiming for further downside if the support level is broken and a new resistance is established.
Wishing you successful trades and profitable opportunities!
GBPUSD: Rising within the uptrend channel!Dear traders!
GBPUSD is currently moving within a clear ascending channel, maintaining its bullish trend on the 1-hourchart.
Looking ahead, if the market conditions remain unchanged, we should consider buy positions in line with the trend. Pay close attention to the psychological resistance level at 1.2700, where GBPUSD may gain further momentum or break through to reach higher targets.
Wishing you successful and enjoyable trading!
Opening (IRA): TNA April 17th 29 Covered Call... for a 28.28 debit.
Comments: Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on. Selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 28.28/share
Max Profit: .72
ROC at Max: 2.55%
50% Max: .36
ROC at 50% Max: 1.28%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, roll out short call in the event my take profit is not hit.
Opening (IRA): SOXL May 16th 17 Covered Call... for a 15.68 debit.
Comments: Laddering out a smidge here, selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 15.68
Max Profit: 1.32
ROC at Max: 8.42%
50% Max: .66
ROC at 50% Max: 4.21%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
Opening (IRA): SMCI April 17th 34 Covered Call... for a 32.13 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV. Selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 2 x expected move 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 32.13/share
Max Profit: 1.87
ROC at Max: 5.82%
50% Max: .94
ROC at 50% Max: 2.91%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call if take profit is not hit.
EURUSD: Uptrend still prevails!Dear traders!
Yesterday, EUR/USD experienced an impressive short-term rebound, briefly reaching the key resistance level of 1.052. However, lacking further momentum, the pair quickly retreated and stabilized within the day's range.
Looking ahead, as long as the ascending channel remains intact and its internal support levels hold firm, buyers are likely to continue their attempt to break through the next key resistance at the upper boundary of the channel.
Wishing you a successful trading day with plenty of profits!
XAUUSD: Buy or sell?Gold continues to decline for the second day, trading around $2,913 per ounce, as the market pauses ahead of key inflation data and uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policies. Despite the drop, strong buyer interest at lower levels signals stability, while expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to support the metal.If buyers defend key levels, a short-term rebound may occur.
GBPUSD: Buy or sell?Dear traders,
Recently, GBPUSD has struggled to sustain its new high at 1.269, experiencing a slight downward correction while still holding relatively stable at elevated levels. The primary driver behind this decline is the renewed demand for the U.S. dollar, fueled by rising U.S. Treasury yields and the House of Representatives’ approval of the Republican Budget Plan, which has negatively impacted the pair.
As a result, GBPUSD is likely to undergo a short-term corrective move against the trend, seeking new support levels before resuming its upward trajectory.
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought NVDA before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NVDA NVIDIA Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 150usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-9-19,
for a premium of approximately $13.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Opening (IRA): TSLA March 21st 305/2x315/320 BWB*... for a 1.25 credit.
Comments: I don't do these very often, but decided to putz with one here. The setup consists of two parts -- a long put vertical (the -315P/320P) and a short put vertical (the 305P/-315P), one of which is wider than the other. I wrapped it around the 30 delta/expected move strike at the 315 and erected wings out from there.
Although the ROC at max is sexy and alluring, it is illusory, since it would require a finish between the break even at 308.75 and 315 which is a fairly small landing pad when you've launched your rocket from 38 days out in time. Consequently, you generally want to look to take profit either at 50% max of the credit received or for something decent, but far less than the max if presented with the opportunity.
From a trade management standpoint, these generally work or they don't, although I will consider rolling up the 305 put to the 310, assuming I get an opportunity to do so for a debit that is less than the credit received. This would convert the setup into a "free fly," since both wings would be of the same width (i.e., the max loss of the short put vertical would be equal to the max loss of the long put vertical).
Metrics:
Max Profit: 6.25
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 3.75
ROC at Max: 167%
Break Even: 308.75/share
* -- Broken wing butterfly.
Opening (IRA): HIMS April 17th 28 Covered Call... for a 26.33 debit.
Comments: Throwing a few bones at this high IVR/IV (57.5/109.4) single name post-earnings, selling the ~84 delta, 2 x expected move call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 26.33/share
Max Profit: 1.67
ROC at Max: 6.34%
50% Max: .84
ROC at 50% Max: 3.17%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
GOLD → Volatile. Entering consolidation. What is next?OANDA:XAUUSD after a short-term uptrend, gold is now shifting into a consolidation phase, with speculative traders actively defending key risk zones. In this environment, what can we expect from the precious metal next?
Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policies and weak U.S. economic data has driven investors back toward safe-haven assets. However, after reaching a record high of $2,956 on Tuesday, gold experienced a pullback due to profit-taking and a decline in Chinese imports. Despite this, weak U.S. consumer confidence data has helped support a partial recovery.
While gold still holds bullish potential, its upside movement is being restrained by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising bond yields. However, trade war concerns continue to fuel demand for the metal.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 2,921 – 2,942
Support: 2,905 – 2,888
At this stage, the market is forming a sideways range, leading to two potential scenarios:
A pullback to retest the 2,905 – 2,888 support zone before a potential rebound.
A breakout above resistance, confirming a continuation of the bullish trend.
If buyers can push gold into the 2,921 – 2,929 zone and maintain control above this level, the metal could regain upward momentum.
Stay tuned and seize the best opportunities!
Opening (IRA): TQQQ April 17th 60 Covered Call... for a 57.91 debit.
Comments: Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on ... . Here, going lower net delta by selling the -84 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 2 x expected move 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 57.91/share
Max Profit: 2.09
ROC at Max: 3.61%
50% Max: 1.05
ROC at 50% Max: 1.82%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.