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Optionsstrategies

PTON Peloton Interactive Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PTON Peloton Interactive prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 8usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-1-17, for a premium of approximately $1.45. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. PTON might be a buyout this year. From one of these giants: AAPL, AMZN or NKE!
NASDAQ:PTONLong
by TopgOptions
XAUUSD - become cautiousHello everyone, I wish you a new day full of energy! Today, the price of gold has experienced positive growth, currently trading around $2030, an increase of $12 compared to the previous day. This price increase is largely driven by the demand for financial security, especially with concerns about the tense situation in the Middle East, leading to a strong influx of money into the gold market. Furthermore, the decline in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield has also increased the attractiveness of gold as an interest-free investment channel. All eyes are now focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting at the beginning of the year, taking place later this week, as people are seeking clues about the timing and possibility of a US interest rate cut. This decision could have a significant impact on the price of gold, potentially pushing it to new highs or, conversely, risking a return to lower prices. What about you? Do you predict that the price of gold will rise or fall in the near future?
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradingForecast_Signals
Crude Oil is Primed for Gamma ScalpingCrude Oil price have remained sharply range bound for the last two months. CME Group’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures have traded between USD 70-80 a barrel since early November last year. Sharply shifting supply and demand outlook explains range bound trading in crude oil. In this paper, we discuss diverging factors affecting crude oil price and illustrate gamma scalping strategy to harness returns from range bound price moves. Gamma scalping is a well-established dynamic options strategy that enables investment returns from sharply oscillating price moves. CRUDE OIL’S DIVERGING PRICE OUTLOOK Tailwinds powering the oil prices increase is fuelled by (a) OPEC+ members decisions on deep supply cuts, and (b) geopolitical risks in the middle east remains elevated. On the day of the conflict escalation, crude prices spiked 2.6% higher. Some of these attacks have affected crude oil tankers in the region risking supply disruptions. Headwinds pressing oil prices down include record US crude oil production. The US churned 13.25 million bpd (barrels per day) of oil in Q3. That is more than 3 million bpd higher than Russia (second largest producer). EIA expects strong US production to continue through 2024 with growth driven by rising well efficiencies in US oil rigs. Globally, crude production growth is expected to slow but still rise by 0.6 million bpd in 2024 with higher US production offsetting the decline from OPEC nations. Expectedly, this has led to a widening premium for Brent crude compared to WTI. Demand outlook for crude oil remains uncertain. Slowdown in demand growth remains a concern. EIA forecasts global oil consumption to rise by 1.4 million bpd in 2024. This represents a slowdown in growth compared to prior years (1.9 million bpd in 2023). Slower economic growth translates into lower crude oil consumption. As such, supply-demand dynamic may remain unchanged despite slowing production growth. NAVIGATING DIVERGING OIL OUTLOOK With both bullish and bearish drivers for crude oil in active play, a directional position in crude oil might not be able to provide intended hedge for adverse price move. In a market with plenty of uncertainty and characterised by oscillating prices, gamma scalping can be used to harness consistent gains. INTRODUCTION TO GAMMA SCALPING IN CRUDE OIL Gamma scalping is an options trading strategy in which a trader continually adjusts their holdings to profit from small price movements in the underlying, while maintaining a directionally neutral position. Gamma scalping involves dynamic hedging by continually neutralising options delta. Delta is the value by which options prices change for every dollar change in crude oil price. Gamma is the value by which delta changes for every dollar change in crude oil price. Gamma scalping profits from small & frequent volatility in crude oil prices regardless price direction. With gamma scalping, traders can gain from both upward and downward price moves. ILLUSTRATING GAMMA SCALPING IN CRUDE OIL Gamma can be scalped in multiple ways. Common among them involves establishing a long straddle which is a combination of long call and a long put using at-the-money (“ATM”) options expiring on the same date. Hypothetically, we can follow three simple steps to set up gamma scalping: Step 1: Buy (“Long”) ATM Call Option and Put Option (aka Long Straddle) At the hypothetical strike price of USD 70/barrel, premiums required for buying Straddle (calls and puts at-the-money option expiring on 14/Jun 2024) is USD 12/barrel (USD 6 each for call and put) which translates to USD 12,000 per lot. At inception, the delta should be at or near zero. In practice, delta for ATM calls and ATM puts can differ and the position may have a net non-zero delta. Investors can reference the pricing sheet on CME QuikStrike for realistic options premiums, delta values, and strikes. The gamma of the long ~0.025 x 2 = 0.05. Gamma is the value by which delta will change for each change in crude oil price. Long straddle at inception is delta neutral. Meaning, it does not have directional exposure. However, it has long exposure of 0.05 gamma which signals that delta will change when crude oil prices move. Step 2: Dynamic Hedging When Crude Prices Move Higher Consider an up-move of ten points with crude trading up at USD 80/barrel. This results in a new delta of +0.5 (due to Gamma of 0.05 and 10 point move in crude prices: 10 * 0.05 = 0.5 per barrel). This translated to delta of 500 per lot of long straddle. To remain delta neutral, trader needs to sell 5 contracts of CME Micro WTI to balance the increased delta. As a result, the overall position now consists of: • Long 1 x ATM call option with a strike price of USD 70, with expiry 14/June (LON24). • Long 1 x ATM put option with a strike price of USD 70, with expiry 14/June (LON24). • Short 5 x Micro WTI futures contract (MCLN2024) which provides exposure to 500 barrels of oil at USD 80/barrel. Step 3: Harvesting Gains via Dynamic Hedging when Crude Prices Fall Imagine crude oil prices fall to USD 70/barrel, new delta is -0.5 per barrel and -500 per lot of long straddle. To remain delta neutral, the trader needs to buy five lots of CME Micro WTI futures to neutralize delta once more. This results in a profit of USD 5,000 (sell at 80 and buy back at 70 per barrel; each lot of CME Micro WTI futures represents 100 barrels). Overall position now consists of: • Long 1 x ATM call option with a strike price of USD 70, with expiry 14/June (LON24). • Long 1 x ATM put option with a strike price of USD 70, with expiry 14/June (LON24). This trade can be executed multiple times repeating the same steps as above. If crude oil trades down to being with, neutralising delta would involve buying lower and then selling higher when prices recover. SALIENT CONSIDERATIONS WHEN GAMMA SCALPING Upfront Premiums: Long straddle requires an up-front cost. Gamma scalping will need to be executed multiple times to break even and recover the premiums. Up-front premium implies fixed downside with a well-defined maximum loss. Dynamic Hedging: Gamma scalping requires continuous monitoring and adjusting of positions. Time Decay: Options should be selected with sufficiently large days-to-expiry to minimize effect of time decay. Time decay of the option rise sharply closer to expiration massively shrinking the value of the long straddle. Long Volatility: High gamma benefits from high volatility. The strategy should be utilized when volatility is expected to rise or remain high. At Expiry: The options legs may expire at a net loss and require scalping to break-even. Example payoff analysis for different settlement prices for crude oil at expiry: 1. Settles at USD 60/barrel: The put option is US 10 in-the-money and the call option is worthless. Options P&L = USD (10 – (6+6)) x 1000 = Loss of USD 2000. Gamma scalping must have generated more than USD 2,000 to offset this potential loss. 2. Settles at USD 75/barrel: The call option expires worthless and the put option is USD 5 in-the-money. Loss of USD 7,000. Gamma scalping must generate at least USD 7,000 to break-even. 3. Settles at USD 70/barrel: The call and the put option both expire worthless; the entire up-front premium of USD 12,000 results in a loss. To break-even gamma scalping must generate at least USD 12,000. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CL1!
by mintdotfinance
BTCUSDT: flat, what's the next move?At the start of the new week, BTCUSDT continues to show strength with a sustained price increase since the previous weekend. Currently, the price is trading around 42,330 USD and has risen by over 300 USD in today's trading session. This week, there are several important macroeconomic and cryptocurrency events. Let's explore which key altcoins might have a trend this week and how the price of Bitcoin could impact the performance of these cryptocurrencies.
by TradingForecast_Signals
3
EURUSD: Haven't stopped falling yet?Last week, EURUSD did not receive much support as the main trend was downwards, breaking below the psychological support level of 1.090. This common risk aversion sentiment, fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has led traders to favor the US Dollar (USD), putting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair and trading at a low around 1.083 today. In the coming week, there will be several important news releases, particularly the US Housing Price Index and Consumer Confidence figures, which will provide more detailed information about the market. This careful consideration is expected to be reinforced after the upcoming statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday.
Short
by TradingForecast_Signals
USDJPY: The downward momentum continuesUSDJPY opened today's session with a slight decrease, trading around the level of 147.75 and losing 0.25% during the day as it remains in a corrective wave, although still in an upward trend in the short term. Therefore, the Japanese Yen attracts some safe-haven flows amidst deepening political tensions. The USD remains stable below monthly highs and may support USD/JPY. Traders can also await the important FOMC meeting in an uncertain environment regarding interest rate cuts. Any further price decline is likely to attract buyers near the psychological level of 147.00, which would help limit the downside of the USD/JPY pair near the 146.45 area or last week's low volatility level. A convincing break below the following level could shift the short-term trend in favor of selling traders and push the spot price down to the horizontal support level at 146.700.
Short
by TradingForecast_Signals
How will the gold price fluctuate in the new week?Dear friends, in today's trading session, XAUUSD is showing signs of an upward movement within a price decline. At the time of writing this article, the price is trading around the range of 2025 - 2027 USD, marking a 0.39% recovery and an approximate increase of 8 USD. It can be seen that over the past two weeks, the global gold price has experienced slight fluctuations and its value has been fluctuating without a clear trend. Last week, gold fluctuated within a range of about 10 USD and failed to break out even when the latest report showed a "cooling" of inflation. However, things could change in the coming days as the Federal Reserve (Fed) meets and makes interest rate decisions. Currently, the markets are expecting the US Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the meeting taking place this week and rule out any tightening possibilities in future meetings. The report on core personal consumption expenditure index released last week indicated that "cooling" inflation has led many to believe that an early easing scenario may occur. For this reason, many experts predict that the Fed may maintain a cautious tone at its first meeting of 2024, which could benefit gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradingForecast_Signals
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 30/01/2024BUY ABOVE - 21760 SL - 21680 TARGETS - 21840,21920,21970 SELL BELOW - 21680 SL - 21760 TARGETS - 21580,21530,21470 NO TRADE ZONE - 21680 to 21760 Previous Day High - 21760 Previous Day Low - 21470 Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day. Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move. Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only. Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only, we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made. Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement HAPPY TRADING 👍
NSE:NIFTY
by Jagadheesh_JP
2
BANK NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 30/01/2024BUY ABOVE - 45660 SL - 45500 TARGETS - 46000,46220,46500 SELL BELOW - 45330 SL - 45500 TARGETS - 45110,44900,44610 NO TRADE ZONE - 45330 to 45660 Previous Day High - 45660 Previous Day Low - 45110 Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day. Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move. Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only. Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only, we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made. Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement HAPPY TRADING 👍
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Jagadheesh_JP
6
Gold price today (January 29)Hello dear friends! Today, gold continues its downward trend. It can be seen that the recent actions of the Fed have been less accommodating, indicating that interest rates may continue to rise and the USD will become even stronger. This will be unfavorable for the gold market. Therefore, it is not surprising that we are quite optimistic that gold will not have any new breakthroughs from this downward trend, and the 2020 USD support level needs to be observed more closely. The EMA signal, along with the downward trend, further reinforces the decline of gold. The price target reaching the 1980 USD area continues to be emphasized.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradingForecast_Signals
EURUSD: Minimal price fluctuationsCurrently, the EUR/USD continues to trade below the resistance level of 1.0850 as the currency pair remains within familiar levels for the week. The Euro has been declining against the US Dollar due to a decrease in price flow after the ECB maintained stable interest rates and the US GDP grew faster than expected in 2017. At the time of writing, the price is trading around 1.0841, a decrease of 0.04% for the day. My target after this slight decrease in the currency pair towards the support level of 1.0822 would be an increase with a Fibonacci target of 0.618, which is 1.0864, higher than the Fibonacci level of 0.5 at 1.0877. This is the final range where prices could react significantly. There is still a possibility for further decline in EUR/USD, as evidenced by the continued downward momentum provided by the 34 and 89 EMA moving averages. And if this occurs, my long-term strategy would still be to sell with an expected decrease to 1.0822, followed by a breakout below this support level towards 1.0751, which could also be a range where prices could bounce back after a stormy period.
Short
by TradingForecast_Signals
Gold prices increase but not reliablyThe gold price today seems to have remained unchanged from earlier this morning, mainly ranging between 2021 - 2022 USD. Although the US GDP growth has exceeded expectations and core orders have increased, negative factors such as rising unemployment claims and inventory levels, along with reduced personal consumption, will pose challenges to the US economy. As a result, some investors have returned to buying gold. However, there are still many investors who remain on the sidelines, observing the market. Inflation in Europe has decreased to 2.9%, prompting the European Central Bank to maintain interest rates. The European Central Bank predicts that inflation in the region will gradually decrease to around 2.7% in 2024. Considering the above information, it will be difficult for the gold price to rise significantly given the positive economic growth in the US. This indicates that the world's largest economy will not experience a recession and will achieve the desired soft landing as expected by its central bank.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradingForecast_Signals
BANK NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 29/01/2024BUY ABOVE - 45110 SL - 44900 TARGETS - 45330,45500,45800 SELL BELOW - 44900 SL - 45110 TARGETS - 44610,44430,44270 NO TRADE ZONE - 44900 to 45110 Previous Day High - 45110 Previous Day Low - 44430 Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day. Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move. Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only. Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only, we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made. Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement HAPPY TRADING 👍
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Jagadheesh_JP
NIFTY50 INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 29/01/2024BUY ABOVE - 21400 SL - 21330 TARGETS - 21470,21530,21580 SELL BELOW - 21300 SL - 21340 TARGETS - 21250,21210,21130 NO TRADE ZONE - 21300 to 21400 Previous Day High - 21470 Previous Day Low - 21250 Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day. Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move. Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only. Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only, we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made. Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement HAPPY TRADING 👍
NSE:NIFTY
by Jagadheesh_JP