Get started

Optionsstrategies

EUR/USD → Consolidates Ahead of Key Fed Interest Rate DecisionHello everyone, Ben here! EUR/USD saw a sluggish upward movement on Monday, drifting towards the upper bounds of its short-term consolidation range just north of 1.0500, though lacking any significant conviction. With relatively limited European data this week, Fiber traders are bracing for a heavy U.S. data docket. In the short term, the trend remains neutral, but prices are consolidating near a critical support level that has held firm for two years. Aggressive rate cuts in Europe are putting pressure on the pair, with expectations set for December 17th-18th. The Fed is widely anticipated to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps). However, any hawkish signals from the Fed aimed at taming inflation would increase the downside potential for EUR/USD. Support levels: 1.045, 1.033 Resistance levels: 1.060, 1.065 From an interest rate perspective, within the context of a broader downtrend, price has yet to reach the key liquidity zone. Ahead of the news, I anticipate that the price will climb towards 1.060. However, based on both technical and fundamental outlooks, bearish momentum is expected to resume, and a break below the 1.045 support level will solidify the downward trend. Best regards, Bentradegold!
Short
by Bentradegold
GOLD --> Correction Before Potential Further DeclineOANDA:XAUUSD transitioning to a Correction Phase After Last Week's Economic Data. Market participants are generally confirming the bearish nature after returning to the channel. The market is broadly prepared for a 25% rate cut, but traders seem cautious about hints regarding the Fed's stance: whether the Fed will cut interest rates, shift to a wait-and-see approach, or imply a rate hike based on last week's economic data. Traders are eagerly awaiting the Fed's decision, which will be announced on December 18. Gold prices continue to be supported by safe-haven demand amidst ongoing geopolitical risks. Additionally, China's continued gold purchases are providing further momentum for this precious metal. Technically, after a false breakout at the 2721 level, a deep correction is forming, which typically develops into a local downward trend. Prices are approaching the panic zone of 2615-2600. During the Asian trading session, gold maintained its earlier recovery above $2650 as buyers still held control amidst the persistently weak US dollar and sluggish US Treasury yields, with attention on key resistance levels. Prices are heading toward the imbalance zone in the correction process. A swift approach and retest of resistance could trigger a recovery. Traders may enter the profit-taking phase before major news releases. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
2
Gold: Short-Term Fluctuations, Long-Term TriumphsAs a market analyst, I observe that global gold prices currently stand at $2,647 per ounce, with February 2025 gold futures on the Comex New York exchange priced at $2,675 per ounce, reflecting a 0.03% increase from the previous day. Over the past week, gold has shown a solid 0.8% gain. From my perspective, gold has had a remarkable year, and while it is now undergoing a phase of correction, I firmly believe this pullback will not last long. My analysis suggests that gold prices will rise further in the coming months. This outlook is supported by several key factors, including loose monetary policies, strong central bank buying activity, and growing demand for safe-haven assets, all of which are likely to drive gold to new record highs this year. I’m also closely following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after each meeting, as these are crucial for shaping investor expectations for 2025. Inflation remains a pressing issue, still falling short of the Fed’s 2% target. According to Nicky Shiels, a metals strategist at MKS PAMP SA, gold prices could reach $2,500 per ounce, or even as high as $3,000 per ounce, depending on how effectively the Fed manages inflation. In the short term, my projection is that gold will trade within a range of $2,647 to $2,760 per ounce. For the longer term, I align with Goldman Sachs' forecast that gold could achieve $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. This aligns with the broader trends I’m observing, where persistent economic uncertainties and evolving monetary policies continue to shape a favorable environment for gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trader-Briannnn
GOLD → The FED Rate Decision Ahead: What Should You Do?Dear Traders, Gold (XAUUSD) has made a notable move, successfully testing the strong support level at 2633 before traders shifted into buying mode. As a result, the price broke above 2643, sparking new optimism as upcoming discussions around potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (FED) take center stage. Currently, there is a 93% probability that the FED will cut rates by 25 basis points. However, the overarching theme is the FED's stance for the future. Hawkish hints regarding 2025 could influence the rate-cutting trajectory, an aspect the market has only partially priced in. This means any indication of a smaller rate cut could fuel strength for the U.S. dollar. Conversely, a deeper cut could act as a bullish catalyst for gold. The spotlight is firmly on FED Chair Jerome Powell's comments, as they will provide crucial insights into the economic outlook for 2024 amidst the backdrop of Trump-era policies that continue to play a pivotal role. That said, downside risks for gold remain elevated, particularly if the FED maintains a hawkish stance in the current climate. Technical Analysis: At the moment, gold prices are consolidating within the range of 2658 - 2633, with a breakout in either direction likely to bring about a strong momentum-driven move. The market is complex and highly volatile right now, which is why traders are advised to hold off on entering positions before the event. Waiting for volatility to subside can offer better clarity on market direction and safer opportunities. Final Advice: Patience is key in such turbulent times. Avoid getting swayed by short-term noise and focus on acting only after a clear trend emerges following the major event.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
Opening (IRA): XBI February 21st 85 Covered Call... for an 83.01 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 83.01/share Max Profit: 1.99 ROC at Max: 2.40% 50% Max: 1.00 ROC at 50% Max: 1.20% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
AMEX:XBILong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SMH January 17th 235 Covered Call... for a 230.52 debit. Comments: Mostly in this to attempt to grab the annual divvy ... . Last year, it was 1.04/share, but it has been widely variant from year to year (e.g., 2.40 in 2022; 1.57 in 2021; 1.50 in 2020). Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 230.52/Share Max Profit: 4.48 ROC at Max: 1.94% 50% Max: 2.24 ROC at 50% Max: .97% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, but may take profit early if the dividend turns out to be non-chump change.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
GBPUSD: Breaking the trend line!GBPUSD is currently trading around 1.2705 and has not changed much since the start of the trading session. Early Tuesday morning, data released by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the ILO Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.3% in the three months to October, as expected. During the period, Employment Change increased by 173,000, while annual wage inflation, measured by Average Earnings excluding bonuses, increased to 5.2% from 4.9%. Although the negative shift in risk sentiment has helped the US dollar gain ground in the European session, the GBP/USD pair remains flat but could fall as the bullish trendline and technical factors are broken.
Short
by Trader-Briannnn
Opening (IRA): TLT February 21st 87 Covered Call... for a 85.97 debit. Comments: Going long at or near November lows, selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, with the built-in defense of the short call. I'm also looking to snag the January and potentially the February dividends here. This is a bit longer-dated than I ordinarily like to go, but I'm not doing a ton here besides waiting for January setups to come in/be managed. The obvious variant is to sell the standard -30 delta against: TLT Feb 21st 94 covered call, 89.72 debit, 4.28 max. 4.77% ROC at max where the short call is paying >1% of the strike price in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 85.97/share Max Profit (ex. dividends): 1.03 ROC at Max: 1.20% 50% Max: .52 ROC at 50% Max: .60% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max after at least the January dividend drops.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): EWY January 17th 52 Covered Call... for a 51.50 debit. Comments: Primarily in this for the dividend, since the ROC %-age without it kind of blows chunks. The last four distributions were: .63, 1.68, .70, and 1.65. Would appreciate something in the neighborhood of 1.00 (please and thank you) ... . Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 51.50/share Max Profit: .50 ROC at Max (Excluding Dividends): .97% I generally look to take profit on these at 50% max, but will wait for the dividend to drop to see what's what ... .
AMEX:EWYLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): IBIT Jan 17th 50 Covered Call... for a 47.76 debit. Comments: High IV at 65.3%. Selling the -75 call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. This isn't the best entry (an understatement), but am looking at it as a starter position which I will add to, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on. Previously, I was working BITO due to its monthly dividend, but it suffers from "rollover risk" and BITO IV is higher on the put side than on the call, making selling puts more productive in that instrument, kind of defeating the reason why you might want to be in that instrument -- the dividends, for which you have to be in stock. IBIT IV is higher on the call side than BITO, making covered calls more productive from a max profit standpoint. (The max of the Jan 17th 50 short put, 24 delta, is 1.77 here versus 2.24 for the monied covered call). Alas, the trade-off is ... no dividends. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.76/share Max Profit: 2.24 ROC at Max: 4.70% 50% Max: 1.12 ROC at 50% Max: 2.35% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll the short call out on break of my take profit (which is (50.00 - 47.76)/2 + 47.76 or 48.88.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
Little bull call spread on StellantisI believe we are in the end of an accumulation. We had bad news lately about this company and his CEO. I don't want to own the stock, specially in this part of the economic cycle. This is purely a speculative trade. There is a divergence in the awesome oscillator marking a possible end of the bear trend and right after, a period of low volatility characteristic of accumulations as we can see in the multiple historical volatility oscillator below. A spring a few days ago confirmed there were strong buyers. Now we are against the trendline. So, I believe it's cheap (from ~€25 went down to ~€12,50) and it should make a bullish move shortly. Strategy: Bull call spread Expiration: 17 JAN 2025 (45 days to expiration) Legs = +2 calls 13 and -2 calls 14 Premium = 0.27 * 100 stocks * 2 q per leg = €54 Max gain= €146 Risk / Reward = 2.7 Commissions= €1.5 (only open) Break-even = From 13.27 (lower call + premium) Historical Volatility (45 days) = 35,85% Implicit Volatility = ~31% In English: If the underlying (the stock) arrives at 13.27 I start earning money. If it gets to 14 or if it surpasses this price, I get to the max reward. I can lose at the most €54 + commisions even if the stock goes to €1. The blue lines in the chart represent Breakeven, Max reward price and Expiration so I can follow the underlying. Now it's time to follow the DOM for each option. I hope this process of thought helps you in your trades, specially if you are now to options.
EURONEXT:STLAPLong
by NicolasRZ
GOLD--> Testing $2700: What Awaits with Upcoming PPI?OANDA:XAUUSD at the time of writing, prices are fluctuating around $2706, down 0.42% for the day, with not enough momentum to break the $2711 level. Meanwhile, buyers seem to have paused as the market prepares for the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. This report is expected to shed more light on the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory, keeping investors cautious. While prices are currently hovering around a minor pullback, some fundamental factors suggest that any drop may only be short-lived. Treasury yields have steadily declined throughout the year, a trend that typically supports gold. Moreover, persistent geopolitical tensions remain a strong driver for safe-haven demand, reinforcing the allure of the yellow metal. On inflation, while consumer prices have stopped rising aggressively, they remain stable. This stability makes it almost certain that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a 25 basis-point rate cut at its December 17-18 policy meeting. In fact, traders are pricing in a 96% probability of this move, up from 86% before the recent inflation report. From a technical perspective, gold is attempting to escape its main range, breaking key resistance. The focus is on $2700 and $2670. If buyers hold their ground in this region even after the news, prices will continue to grow in the future, as key liquidity zones remain untested. This projected growth is expected to reach levels such as $2758 and $2790. Always stay ahead of the market with Bentradegold—your trusted source for analysis and deep insights!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
GOLD → Wedge has formed. What next?OANDA:XAUUSD consolidation has been completed as investors rush to take profits after the precious metal’s consecutive price increases, reaching the highest level in more than 5 weeks earlier in the session. Prices are currently testing the gap around 2683 - 2670 (FVG). What’s next? Focusing on policy guidance related to the future of U.S. policies is crucial to determining the certainty of the market's next bullish wave. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at next week's policy meeting. Alex Ebkarian, CEO of Allegiance Gold, notes that the Fed is in a very difficult position as the likelihood of a rate cut next week increases, but inflation remains elevated. From a technical perspective, gold is attempting to escape the battlefield, crossing a key resistance level. A breakout at 2687 has already been established. In theory, the development tends to push prices higher. If gold breaks out of the resistance size, it will provide distribution momentum. Conversely, prices may consolidate further. Ultimately, everything depends on the dollar. Best regards, Bentradegold !
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
GOLD NEXT MOVEDear Friends, Let’s take a closer look and trade accordingly. From the chart, we are witnessing a promising setup as the price has successfully broken out of the consolidation phase, reaching the $2726 level. Theoretically, based on Elliott Wave Theory, the pair is currently moving within Wave 4, a corrective wave following the completion of Wave 3, which closed below the $2722 level. What’s next? The price is likely to test a key liquidity zone, building momentum for a strong Wave 5, targeting $2758—a compelling and significant resistance level. Good luck, and may you achieve abundant profit:)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trader-Briannnn
Gold → Breaking through channel resistance. New ATH target?Hello everyone! Ben here! Today, gold has officially broken out of the price channel, while the bulls are striving to maintain control, defending the key support level around 2665. This level was formed in the context of a weakening USD after signs of correction. The precious metal is now facing significant growth potential, with the opportunity to distribute prices at local highs in the near future. Macroeconomic factors are playing an essential role in supporting gold prices. Concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East continue to drive safe-haven demand, making gold a highly sought-after asset. Meanwhile, the U.S. jobs report released last Friday has fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider cutting interest rates in its December policy meeting, which is generally a positive signal for gold prices. However, gold's growth outlook still faces short-term challenges. Investors are currently awaiting key inflation reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). Both reports are expected to provide critical signals for the Fed's monetary policy direction and could create substantial market volatility. From a technical perspective, the main trend remains bullish, but prices are currently testing strong resistance. To reinforce upward momentum, gold needs to break out of this resistance zone and sustain above it. If this happens, prices could quickly move to new highs. However, if prices fail to break through, a retest of key support areas around 2677 (Fibonacci 0.618) and 2663 (Fibonacci 0.5) should be anticipated before the uptrend can continue. Share your evaluations and questions about XAUUSD so we can discuss further!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
1
Opening (IRA): IBIT January 17th 48 Covered Call... for a 46.16 debit. Comments: Adding to my IBIT position at a strike/break even better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put to take advantage of call side IV skew and to have the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 46.16/share Max Profit: 1.84 ROC at Max: 3.99% 50% Max: .92 ROC at 50% Max: 1.99% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out short call on break even or take profit test.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): USO Jan 17th 66 Covered Call... for a 64.89 break even. Comments: With 42 DTE in the January monthly, adding a "rung" to my USO position at strikes better than what I currently have on at the 68, selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. The ROC at max isn't stellar here with the usual metric I'm looking for being at least 2.0%. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 64.89/share Max Profit: 1.11 ROC at Max: 1.71% 50% Max: .56 ROC at 50% Max: .86% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call on test of my take profit at 65.45.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines