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EURUSD at Key Support – Bullish Rebound Ahead?Hello Ben's great friends! Currently, EURUSD is fluctuating about 1,0878 in the early morning session in Asia. The US dollar decreased slightly when traders prepare for the US presidential election and the possibility that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, supporting some support for the main currency pair. Moreover, based on technical analysis, the price is approaching the strong support area (suitable for EMA 34.89). If this support level is maintained, it can act as a platform to increase prices. What do you think about this view? Let me know your ideas.
Long
by Bentradegold
3
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: Ready to Strangle a BreakoutIntroduction: Why Natural Gas is Poised for Volatility Natural Gas markets are showing signs of a potential volatility surge as recent data from the United States Natural Gas Stocks Change (USNGSC) displays a rare narrowing of the 21-day Bollinger Bands®. This technical setup often precedes sharp market moves, suggesting an upcoming breakout. Given the importance of fundamental shifts in natural gas inventory data, any unexpected change in USNGSC could significantly impact Natural Gas Futures (NG1!), leading to price movements in either direction. This Options Blueprint Series explores a strategy to capitalize on this anticipated volatility: the Long Strangle Strategy. By setting up positions that profit from sharp directional moves, traders may capture gains regardless of the direction in which the price moves. Understanding the Long Strangle Strategy A Long Strangle involves purchasing a call option at a higher strike price and a put option at a lower strike price. This setup allows traders to profit from significant price movements in either direction. The chosen strategy for this analysis includes: Expiration: February 25, 2025 Strikes: 2.5 put at 0.28 and 2.7 call at 0.29 This setup is ideal for capturing potential breakouts, with limited risk equal to the total premium paid. Unlike directional trades, a Long Strangle does not require forecasting the direction of the move, only that a substantial price change occurs before expiration. Technical Analysis with Bollinger Bands® The 21-day Bollinger Bands® applied to USNGSC have narrowed significantly, often an indicator that the market is building up pressure for a breakout. Historically, this type of setup in fundamental data can drive volatility in Natural Gas Futures. When the Bollinger Bands® width narrows, it indicates reduced variability and increased potential for data changes, awaiting release. Once volatility resumes, a dramatic shift can occur. This technical insight provides a solid foundation for the Long Strangle Strategy, aligning the timing of options with the potential for amplified price movement in Natural Gas. Contract Specifications for Natural Gas Futures To effectively plan and manage risk in this trade, it’s crucial to understand the contract details and margin requirements for Natural Gas Futures (NG). o Standard Natural Gas Futures Contract (NG): Minimum Price Fluctuation: $0.001 per MMBtu or $10 per tick. o Micro Natural Gas Futures Contract (optional alternative for smaller exposure): Minimum Price Fluctuation: $0.001 per MMBtu or $1.00 per tick. Margin Requirements The current margin requirement for a single NG futures contract generally falls around $2,500 but may vary with market conditions. $250 per contract for Micro Natural Gas Futures. Trade Plan for the Long Strangle The Long Strangle strategy on Natural Gas involves buying both a put and a call option to capture significant price movements in either direction. Here’s how the trade is set up: o Expiration: February 25, 2025 o Strikes: Long 2.5 Put at 0.28 ($2,800) Long 2.7 Call at 0.29 ($2,900) o Cost Basis: The total premium paid for the strangle is 0.57 (0.28 + 0.29) = $5,700 per strangle position. Profit Potential Profits increase as Natural Gas moves sharply above the 2.7 call strike or below the 2.5 put strike, accounting for the 0.57 premium paid. With substantial price movement, gains on one option can offset the total premium and yield significant returns. Risk Maximum risk is confined to the total premium paid ($5,700), making this a capped-risk trade. Reward-to-Risk Analysis Reward potential is substantial to the upside and downside, limited only by the extent of the price move, while risk is capped at the initial premium cost. Risk Management and Trade Monitoring Effective risk management is key to successfully executing a Long Strangle strategy, particularly when anticipating heightened volatility in Natural Gas. Here are the critical aspects of managing this trade: Defined Risk with Prepaid Premiums: The maximum risk is predetermined and limited to the initial premium paid, which helps manage potential losses in volatile markets. Importance of Position Sizing: Sizing positions appropriately can help balance exposure across a portfolio and reduce excessive risk concentration in a single asset. Using Micro Natural Futures would help to reduce size and risk by a factor of 10 (from $5,700 down to $570 per strangle). Optional Stop-Loss: As the risk is confined to the premium, no stop-loss orders are required. Exit Strategies For a Long Strangle to yield substantial returns, timing the exit is crucial. Here are potential exit scenarios for this strategy: Profit-Taking Before Expiration: If Natural Gas experiences a significant price swing before the February expiration, consider taking profits which would further reduce the exposure to premium decay. Holding to Expiration: Alternatively, traders can hold both options to expiration if they anticipate further volatility or an extended price trend. Continuous Monitoring: The effectiveness of this strategy is closely tied to the persistence of volatility in Natural Gas. Keep an eye on Fundamental Updates in USNGSC as any unexpected changes in natural gas stocks data can lead to sharp price adjustments, increasing the potential for profitability. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by traddictiv
BNBUSDT: Potential Downside Direction Ahead !In today's trading session, BNBUSDT is facing clear bearish pressure after breaking the important support zone around $573. The EMA 34 and EMA 89 show that the downtrend is strengthening, and the price has now continued to fall to the $560 area, below the important moving averages, marking a weak signal in the short term. It is expected that BNBUSDT may continue to correct to the next support levels at $548 and $534 if the selling pressure does not decrease. Moreover, if there is no support signal from positive news or strong price action bounce from the support zone, BNB is likely to fall deeper in the coming period.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn86525521
SOLUSDT: Strong Correction – Recovery Opportunity?On the daily chart of SOLUSDT, we can see that after a sharp increase and approaching the resistance zone around $180, SOL is now under pressure to correct and reverse. This correction comes amid increasing risk-off sentiment among investors due to the uncertain global economic situation. Moreover, inflation remains high, while central banks around the world, especially the US Federal Reserve (Fed), are still maintaining tight monetary policies. However, SOLUSDT is still fluctuating around the support zone from the long-term uptrend line. If SOL holds the current support zone and gains buying momentum, there is a high possibility that the price will bounce back and retest the resistance zone of $180. Good luck everyone!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn86525521
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/44]: Set For Large Move SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) expiring in December rose last week, up by USD 0.54/ton on Friday, though prices gave up some gains by the end of the week. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 101.60/ton on 28/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 102.14/ton on 01/Nov (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 104.60/ton on 29/Oct (Tue) and a low of USD 101.30/ton on 28/Oct (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 3.30/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded just above the pivot point of USD 103.70/ton for most of the week before falling below it on Friday. Volumes were noticeably lower in the later part of the week. Highest volume was observed on 30/Oct (Wed). SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary China’s parliament has started its five-day meeting on 4/Nov (Mon) and is expected to announce the details of the fiscal support on 8/Nov (Fri). Analysts suggest the fiscal plan could reach 10 trillion yuan (USD 1.4 trillion), with most funds likely allocated to refinancing local government debt. The outcome is likely to drive significant volatility during the week. China’s manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.1 in Oct as the manufacturing sector shifted into expansion after 5 months of contraction. Non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.2 from 50.0. Steel industry PMI rose to 54.6 from 49 in prior month. The PMI reading was the highest since July 2018. The output index rose to 63.6 suggesting the stimulus helped boost steel production. Caxin’s China manufacturing PMI rose from 49.3 to 50.3 in October recovering from the dip in September. IO China Portside inventories rose by 770k tons to 150.1 million tons last week. The pickup volume declined further by 13k tons. Accumulating inventories pose a risk to IO demand. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Dec contract trades 3.6% higher than its last 5-year average (USD 99.31/ton). Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Bearish Trend Prices recovered following the bearish MA crossover on 22/Oct but failed to rise above the 21-day moving average. The 21-day moving average served as a resistance level throughout last week. Long-Term Averages Provide Support Prices shot above the 100-day moving average on 28/Oct (Mon) and managed to hold above this level for the rest of the week. Price re-tested this support level on 4/Nov (Mon) but seems to be holding above it for now. MACD Points to Fading Decline The MACD suggests a weakening bearish trend, with the short-term MA positioned just below the long-term MA. However, both MAs are trending downward, making a bullish crossover unlikely without a sharp rally. The long-term MA may serve as support. The RSI is near a neutral level at 51.02. Fibonacci 38.2% Tested Last Week Following the retracement of the bearish trend since the start of October, prices rallied to the 38.2% Fib level but failed to surpass it. This could indicate a continuation of the bearish trend. Though, the USD 100/ton level may provide psychological support. Price Trading Just Below Volume Point of Control Sellers continued to dominate trading despite an uptick in buyers early last week. Price faced resistance at the volume point of control for October (USD 103.55/ton). There is another area of volume concentration at (USD 101.15/ton) which could provide near-term support. Bollinger Bands Narrowing with Low Volatility Bollinger Bands for IO futures are narrowing and their width is near the lowest contraction since August, increasing the likelihood of a sharp breakout. Price is currently at the mid-point of the Bollinger Bands. Historical Volatility also continued to decline last week and reached its lowest level since August. Iron Ore Options Favor Calls SGX IO options expiring in December have an OI put/call ratio of 0.86 as of 1/Nov which favors calls. Over the past week, trading in this contract was heavily skewed towards call with a volume put/call ratio of 0.38. Additionally, last week, near-term options expiring in November saw a large buildup of call options around the USD 105 strike suggesting bullish sentiment in the near-term. The delta-25 options skew for December options also shows a sharp increase in call IV alongside a narrowing skew suggesting high demand for calls. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore volatility has reached its lowest level since August. The rally last week failed to continue past the short-term moving average and the volume profile point of control and IO gave up substantial gains in the later part of the week despite the encouraging data from PMI releases. The results of the ongoing parliamentary meeting are expected on 9/Nov (Fri) and are likely to drive substantial moves in prices. Options activity over the last week showed a high concentration of activity for call options, especially at the strike level of USD 105/ton. The IV for IO options has also been rising unlike the historical volatility. A sharp upside move is likely, though, if the fiscal stimulus disappoints, prices may also decline sharply. Expressing the bullish view through a long futures exposes the position to higher risk if stimulus disappoints. Investors can instead express the bullish view using SGX IO options. A bullish call spread benefits from an increase in prices and offers a fixed upside and fixed downside along with a smaller premium cost than a long call position. Bullish call spread consists of long call at a lower strike and short call at a higher strike. A hypothetical trade setup consisting of USD 105/ton for the long call leg and USD 109/ton for the short call leg on the options contract expiring on 31/Dec offers a reward to risk ratio of 3x. The USD 109/ton level coincides with the peak during the last rally in mid-October and is close to the 200-day moving average, prices could face resistance above this level. This position offers a max profit of USD 299/lot and a max loss of USD 101/lot and breaks even when prices rise above USD 106.1/ton. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Long
by MintBulkCommods
Gold price continues the long -term trend from 2700Hello market warriors! In today's session, XauUSD is gradually looking for a potential area to buy about 2700 USD. This adjustment is not a coincidence, but because Gold witnessed the leaps of last week, largely due to instability revolving around the race of the US president, escalating tensions in Middle East and Kha Kha's expectations. Fed interest rate decreases. This week, the focus of the market will focus on the US election, decide the interest rate from the Fed and a series of important economic data, from the requirements of unemployment benefits to the psychology of consumers. use. These will be big wave factors for gold prices! Currently, gold is still surrounded by $ 2750 per ounce, continuing to strengthen the long -term increase. I wish you a successful transaction!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Bentradegold
Solusdt adjusted: Selling & bottom catching strategySolusdt on the 4 -hour frame shows a strong adjustment after the previous price increase. The price has broken the trend of increasing trend, and is currently fluctuating under an important resistance area around $ 170. This shows that the increasing motivation has weakened, and the high likelihood of SOL will continue to adjust. Important levels: Short -term resistance: $ 170 - $ 172, is the area where the price may have a selling pressure if recovered. Nearly support: $ 165.07 - where prices can be found short -term support, if breaking, the possibility of price will continue to decrease. Important support: $ 154.16 - strong support area, maybe the waiting point if the price drops deep. Short trading strategy: Sell ​​strategy (Sell): Consider selling commands at $ 170 - $ 172 resistance if the price recovered, with the goal of closing profit at $ 165.07 and $ 154.16. Buying strategy (BUY): If the price drops in a deep support level $ 154.16, the purchase order may be considered when signs of turning on this area.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn86525521
1
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 65 Covered Call... for a 62.41 break even. Comments: High IVR/IV (79/51) plus weakness. Adding a rung to my USO position out in December at break evens better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 62.41 Max Profit: 2.59 ROC at Max: 4.15% 50% Max: 1.30 ROC at 50% Max: 2.07% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; look to roll out the short call on test.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Bitcoin takes off when the Fed levelsToday, BTCUSDT tends to increase with this currency currently fluctuating around $ 69,400. The market predicts the Federal Reserve may temporarily suspend the interest rate increase cycle, capable of weakening the dollar and promote the attraction of Bitcoin as an alternative asset. In addition, the increasing investment of organizations in Bitcoin has contributed to the positive motivation for the cryptocurrency market. Technical analysis: BTCUSDT is currently checking the trend of increasing trend at a support level around $ 69,500. If the price is held on this trend and surpasses EMA 34 and EMA 89 (currently $ 70,765 and $ 70,768), the price increase will be strengthened. The next goal may be in the range of $ 72,000 - $ 73,000.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn86525521
EURUSD increased sharply: Target 1,095?Hello everyone! EURUSD is witnessing an impressive increase after a long decline, this pair of money has been stable around the threshold of 1,087 and has not shown signs of stopping. Looking at the time frames, the strong growth trend of EURUSD brings clear optimism. However, the current pair of money is under the resistance level immediately at 1,088. The passing of this level will lead to an increase in price while maintaining this level will lead to decreasing prices. With the current situation, it is likely that the 1,0857 milestone may be tested to check the reaction with EMA 34 and 89 lines before the market offers a more definitive direction. The upcoming goal? 1,090 and further than 1,095. I wish you a lot of luck and profit!
Long
by Bentradegold
2
BTCUSDTHello all dear traders! BTCUSDT is trending up today with the coin currently hovering around $72,300. Technically, although BTCUSDT is rising, there are clear signs of overbought conditions with immediate resistance at $73,300 and the higher high at $74,000 yet to be broken. This could lead to consolidation or a pullback in the short term. However, given the overall market structure, Bitcoin could be on the verge of exploding higher in the coming months.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn86525521
2
$UPST Bullish Flag can Test August '23 HighIn my search for technically sound swing trade ideas I stumbled on $UPST. What we are looking at is almost a perfect technical setup of a bullish continuation flag. We have a nice breakout or "flag pole" on high volume followed by a generally controlled flag pattern down with low volume. What I really like about this setup is it is measuring to test its August '23 high almost perfectly. According to technical analysis, "flags fly at half mast" meaning they form at the midway point of the move. In order to measure the following move precisely you can measure the distance of the preceding breakout point. In this case, the breakthrough of the lower level resistance. Measuring this, I found that the following move could be around $12, putting it at $60 a share and right at the upper level resistance. Invalidation would occur with a daily close below the lower trendline of the flag. I think we could see the start of a large upside move within the next week or two. Unfortunately, we also have the election next week which does all sorts of weird things to the market as a whole. If this setup invalidates but bounces off the lower (previous) line of resistance- I will take another look.
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by sbridger33
EUR/USD: Opportunity to profit from resistance!Hello all dear traders! After yesterday's important economic news, we saw a pretty impressive breakout of EUR/USD, but the pair is currently trading slightly lower at around 1.084, down around 0.06% on the day. This downside correction is largely due to the USD rising slightly on positive signals from the US economy. However, there is an important supporting factor for EUR/USD: the market is gradually losing confidence in the possibility of a strong ECB easing in the near future. This helps limit the downside momentum of the currency pair, allowing EUR/USD to hold firm against the pressure from the USD. From a technical point of view, I see that EUR/USD could gain some more upside momentum thanks to the nearby 34 EMA, which acts as an important support zone in the short term. But! Any upside momentum is likely to face resistance at around 1.087 and is likely to correct back to support to test liquidity before a clearer upside momentum emerges. Wishing you all a successful and profitable trading day!
Short
by Bentradegold
1
EURUSD: The trend of increasing dominant!Hello all my dear friends, the third day has started, wish you lots of energy! Currently, the EUR/USD pair is stable around 1,0810 and works well on the price channel to 1 hour. Despite the US dollar consolidated in the early morning of Asia in Tuesday. On the other hand, the price increase of the US dollar shows some signs of fatigue when the dollar index (DXY) returns to the recent peak at nearly 104.60 before falling to 104.30 at the delivery session. The end of the translation ends, thereby supporting the continued increasing trend of this pair of money. I wish you a lot of profits!
Long
by Bentradegold
Gold prices fall from peak, $2,800 still in sight!Hello everyone! Gold (XAU/USD) has declined after hitting a fresh record high in the early European session on Wednesday and is currently trading around $2,782, still up 0.27% on the day. From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout above the trading range is seen as a fresh impetus for the bulls. The subsequent upside move has pushed the price of gold towards the extended rising trendline resistance, currently anchored near the $2,780-$2,785 region, which could act as a strong hurdle amid a slightly overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading on the daily chart, suggesting a correction is possible. However, the uptrend remains intact and sustained strength above the said barrier could push XAU/USD further towards the $2,800 mark and beyond as indicated.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
Gold continues to heat up!Hello all dear traders! The world gold price continues to heat up in the context of the US presidential election season reaching its peak on November 5. Meanwhile, US economic data shows a very strong increase in the number of new jobs compared to the forecast. The country's gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.8%. The US Federal Reserve (FED) policymakers are expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% next week, which could continue to benefit the safe-haven precious metal. As can be seen on the 1-hour chart, the technical uptrend along with support from the nearby EMAs 34 and 89, shows that the bullish outlook remains intact without any risks. Furthermore, the recent consolidation around the 2790 - 2777 range and the unbroken price wedge suggest that gold prices are likely to accelerate to around $2800 and beyond. Wishing you all the best of luck in your trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold