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GOLD → False or true resistance breakout?OANDA:XAUUSD is trying to consolidate above the previously broken boundary of the ascending channel. The struggle that has not ended creates risks for both buyers and sellers. The weakening USD, coupled with the lack of clarity surrounding President Donald Trump's policy plans and ongoing trade wars, continues to provide support for gold. Inflation expectations are rising amid a period of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain high interest rates for an extended period to control increasing price pressures. Since taking office, President Trump has provided little detail on his proposed tariffs, raising questions about the seriousness of these measures and their potential impact. In the coming days and weeks, the precious metals market will be influenced by constantly shifting news from Washington. Resistance levels: 2758, 2770 Support levels: 2750, 2745, 2730 Currently, prices are consolidating above previously broken resistance levels. If there is no bullish momentum and the price breaks through a false resistance channel, gold may decline toward 2745 - 2730. However, a breakout above the local resistance level could trigger buying and push the price to the target: 2770. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
4
Opening (IRA): TNA March 21st 40 Covered Call... for a 38.17 debit. Comments: High IV; starter position. Going out to the 56 DTE March monthly for my starter position, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 38.17/share Max Profit: 1.83 ROC at Max: 4.79% 50% Max: .92 ROC at 50% Max: 2.40% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if the take profit has not been hit.
AMEX:TNALong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SMH February 21st 195/220/270/295 Iron Condor... for a 3.91 credit. Comments: Back into the semiconductor ETF, where I don't have a position on currently. Going comparatively low delta, with the short options camped out at the 17 delta on both sides and the wings about 1/10th the price of the underlying in width. Metrics: Max Profit: 3.91 Buying Power Effect: 21.09 ROC at Max: 18.54% 50% Max: 1.96 ROC at 50% Max: 9.27% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll untested side in toward current price on side test.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): EWW March 21st 46 Covered Call... for a 45.00 debit. Comments: Taking a small (ish) directional shot in the Mexico exchange-traded fund, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 45.00/share Max Profit: 1.00 ROC at Max: 2.22% 50% Max: .50 ROC at 50% Max: 1.11% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit isn't hit.
AMEX:EWWLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TQQQ March 21st 72 Covered Call... for a 68.95 debit. Comments: Starter position on weakness. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 68.95 Max Profit: 3.05 ROC at Max: 4.42% 50% Max: 1.53 ROC at 50% Max: 2.21% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens that what I have on at the time, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): FCX July 18th 25/March 21st 39 Long Call Diagonal... for an 11.02 debit. Comments: Taking a directional shot post-earnings on weakness, buying the back month 90 delta call and selling the front month 30 delta that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long, resulting in a break even that is slightly below where the underlying is currently trading. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 11.02 Break Even: 36.02/share Max Profit: 2.98 ROC at Max: 27.04% With these, I generally look to take profit at 110% of what I put them on for and/or look to roll out the short call to reduce my cost basis/downside break even should that not be hit.
NYSE:FCXLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TNA March 21st 39 Covered Call... for a 37.05 debit. Comments: Adding to my TNA position at a slightly better break even than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 37.05/share Max Profit: 1.95 ROC at Max: 5.26% 50% Max: .98 ROC at 50% Max: 2.63% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit is not hit.
AMEX:TNALong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): XBI March 21st 86 Covered Call... for an 84.20 debit. Comments: Adding to my position at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 84.20 Max Profit: 1.80 ROC at Max: 2.14% 50% Max: .90 ROC at 50% Max: 1.07% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit isn't hit.
AMEX:XBILong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TMF March 21st 36 Covered Call... for a 34.85 debit. Comments: Starter position. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 34.85 Max Profit: 1.15 ROC at Max: 3.30% 50% Max: .58 ROC at 50% Max: 1.65% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit is not hit.
AMEX:TMFLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): IBIT March 21st 48 Covered Call... for a 46.14 debit. Comments: Adding to my current position at strikes better than what I have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 46.14 Max Profit: 1.86 ROC at Max: 4.03% 50% Max: .93 ROC at 50% Max: 2.02% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my TP is not hit.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): INDA March 21st -52C/June 20th 2 x 45C/-50C... covered zebra for a 9.93 debit. Comments: I fiddled mightily with bullish assumption setups in this underlying and settled on this setup -- a covered zebra (zero extrinsic ratio back spread). It consists of two parts: (1) a longer-dated zebra where I bought 2 x the 75 delta strike call and sold the -50 delta call to synthesize a 100 delta setup; (2) against which I sold a shorter-dated -30 delta call. This emulates the delta metrics of a covered call, but with a smaller buying power effect than either a covered call or a long call diagonal. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 9.93 debit Break Even: 49.96/share Max Profit: 2.04 While you can manage the separate, bullish assumption spreads of the setup, I'll look to money/take/run at 110% of what I put it on for and/or look to roll out the short call to reduce my break even further should my take profit not hit.
CBOE:INDALong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TQQQ March 21st 68 Covered Call... for a 64.63 debit. Comments: Starter position on weakness, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 64.63 Max Profit: 3.37 ROC at Max: 5.21% 50% Max: 1.69 ROC at 50% Max: 2.61% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my TP is not hit.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SOXL March 21st 20 Covered Call... for an 18.21 debit. Comments: Adding to my current position at strikes better than what I have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 18.21 Max Profit: 1.79 ROC at Max: 9.83% 50% Max: .90 ROC at 50% Max: 4.91% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my TP is not hit.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SOXL March 21st 23 Covered Call... for a 20.87 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV. Adding to my position at a break even better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 20.87 Max Profit: 2.13 ROC at Max: 10.21% 50% Max: 1.07 ROC at 50% Max: 5.11% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals (assuming I can get in at a break even better than what I currently have on), and/or roll out the short call in the event take profit is not hit.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TQQQ March 21st 71 Covered Call... for a 67.75 debit. Comments: Starter position, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 67.75/share Max Profit: 3.25 ROC at Max: 4.80% 50% Max: 1.63 ROC at 50% Max: 2.40% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals (assuming I can get in at break evens/strikes better than what I currently have on), and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): UPS June 20th 90C/March 21st -115C... for a 19.60 debit. Comments: Buying the back month 90 delta call and selling a front month that pays for at least all of the extrinsic in the long such that the break even is at or below where the stock is currently trading. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 19.60 Break Even: 109.60/share Max Profit: 5.40 ROC at Max: 27.6% I generally look to take profit on these at 110% of what I put them on for and/or roll out the short call if my take profit isn't hit.
NYSE:UPSLong
by NaughtyPines
2
Opening (IRA): TAN February 21st 32 Covered Call... for a 31.17 debit. Comments: Still in the top 5 underlyings for IV on my ETF board, with 30-day at 35.0%. Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on after exiting the 33's at 50% max. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 31.17/share Max Profit: .83 ROC at Max: 2.66% 50% Max: .42 ROC at 50% Max: 1.33% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
AMEX:TANLong
by NaughtyPines