Optionsstrategy
Options Idea: Sell The PAM Sep. 18, 2020 10.0 Put @ $0.40Pampa Energia (PAM) is reversing a long-term downtrend, and beginning to trend upwards. After hitting a low of $8.72 in March, we’ve been seeing higher highs and lower lows for the last 4 months. This is an Argentine stock and it’ll probably see a bump higher after the government finishes its sovereign debt restructuring. Also, PAM has a share buy-back program in place and management has been very aggressive about buying back their ADRs when they get close to the $10 zone, which is the strike we've chosen for our naked put.
Warning : PAM options are not liquid. So if you decide to enter into this trade, you’ll probably have to take all the way to Sep 18. Since there isn’t much liquidity, so probably won't be for everyone, but we think the current set-up offers a good risk/reward ratio.
20-PAM-02
Opening Date: July 27, 2020
Expiration Date: September 18, 2020
DTE: 53
IV: 76.42%
IV Percentile: 42%
Odds of Winning: 77.87%%
Odds of Losing: 22.13%%
Win: > 9.60 @ Expiration
Loss: < 9.60 @ Expiration
Reg-T Margin: $290
Chart Legend
Green Area: 100% Win Zone. If we finish above or in the green area, we keep 100% of our initial credit. The size of the green area is the size of credit (our maximum win).
Yellow Area: Danger Zone: We still win, but we have to give back some of the initial credit taken in.
Red Area: If we finish in this area we have a loss. The size of the red area is the size of our maximum loss.
1 standard deviation, 2 standard deviation, 3 standard deviation projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
BTCMOVE0413: Bought Volatility (options trading)Expecting some volatility closer to the close of the day. Bought volatility via BTCMOVE0413 contract; i.e expiring today.
Will cut it if quickly volatility continue to dry down.
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Information is just for educational purposes, never financial advice. Always do your own research.
Uber Short Term BullishEntered a options call on Monday (expires Friday – high risk) since most of my indicators point short term bullish and we have 2 gaps that will probably get filled before tanking again to even lower lows. Anyone agree? As long as price maintains above $28, I will be in profit for my options call.
Short Options Trading: ENPH Buy Put $12.50 Exp: 8/16Understanding The trade:
As an options trader my goal is to identify trend change and utilize a breakout strategy to leverage profit off of major trend changes with minimal risk. Even though this contract does not expire till 8/16 I will be looking to take profit by late July as the rate of decay factor starts to come into play as the contract approaches expiry. This should correlate nicely with the Fib Retracement lvl .618. If you have any questions, please feel free to comment below and follow. Thank you and trade safe.
Reasons For Trade:
• Rejection off the ATH of $18.00 Back in Sep 14’
• RSI Broken upward channel (1D chart Jan 1st -July 2-tj)
• RSI Overbought > 70
Trade Parameters:
• Broker: Robinhood
• Cost For Entry: Free
• Contracts: 3
• Entry Price: .45
• Risk: $135
• Reward: $135
• ROI: 100%
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1
Short Options Trading: AIMC Buy Put $33 Exp: 7/19 Understanding The trade:
As an options trader my goal is to identify trend change and utilize a breakout strategy to leverage profit off of major trend changes with minimal risk. Even though this contract does not expire till 7/19 I will be looking to take profit by early July as the rate of decay factor starts to come into play as the contract approaches expiry. This should correlate nicely with the Fib Retracement lvl 5. If you have any questions, please feel free to comment below and follow. Thank you and trade safe.
Reasons For Trade:
• Rejection off the May 19th high of 37~38 lvl
• Broken upward channel (1D chart May 23rd -June 21st)
• RSI Rejection of 2 previous highs
Trade Parameters:
• Broker: Robinhood
• Cost For Entry: Free
• Contracts: 4
• Entry Price: .2875
• Risk: $115
• Reward: $115
• ROI: 100%
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1
LONG Options Trading: AMD Buy Call $32 Exp: 7/19Understanding The trade:
As an options trader my goal is to identify trend change and utilize a breakout strategy to leverage profit off of major trend changes with minimal risk. Even though this contract does not expire till 7/19 I will be looking to take profit by early July as the rate of decay factor starts to come into play as the contract approaches expiry. This should correlate nicely with the Fib Expansion lvl .618. If you have any questions, please feel free to comment below and follow. Thank you and trade safe.
Reasons For Trade:
• Continuation of the 4th leg for A B
• Support on Upward channel (1D chart Nov 17st - Current)
• Crypto at yearly high (More miners for AMD Graphics Card)
• Fib Expansion .618 correlation
Trade Parameters:
• Broker: Robinhood
• Cost For Entry: Free
• Contracts: 5
• Entry Price: .50
• Risk: $250
• Reward: $100
• ROI: 40%
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 5:2
LONG Options Trading: BNK Mellon(BK) Buy Call $45.50 Exp: 7/19Understanding The trade:
As an options trader my goal is to identify trend change and utilize a breakout strategy to leverage profit off of major trend changes with minimal risk. Even though this contract does not expire till 7/19 I will be looking to take profit by early July as the rate of decay factor starts to come into play as the contract approaches expiry. This should correlate nicely with the Fib Retracement lvl.236. If you have any questions, please feel free to comment below and follow. Thank you and trade safe.
Reasons For Trade:
• Bounced off the May 31st low of 42~43 lvl
• Broken downward channel (1D chart Jan 17st -June 3rd)
• Broken RSI Channel
• RSI Overbought > 30
Trade Parameters:
• Broker: Robinhood
• Cost For Entry: Free
• Contracts: 2
• Entry Price: .44
• Risk: $88
• Reward: $88
• ROI: 100%
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1
$LYB Iron Condor OpportunityImplied volatility is falling in this stock as it nears the more or less average price of around 86 per share over the previous 6 months. I think the price might stay in that range after it's recent moves over April and May. JUL19 75/80/90/95 Iron Condor is attractively priced, and is a better play than just the short Strangle or Straddle given the margin requirements.
Vomiting Camel pattern. This thing could really plummet. Albeit lazily drawn, I present the dreaded “vomiting camel” pattern. I’m not making this shit up. There’s actually a pattern you can look for that is a serious fucking bear when you do. It’s got this ridiculous name for obvious reasons, but here it is and I’ve decided on the 4/46 long put, 17 strike. It cost .66 and is at .69 as of 1053am 4/12. I’m not going to get chased away from this one too quickly as it has potential to really plummet. If it goes sideways I’ll look to roll this one.
Constantinople - Round 2: ATM ETH CallsOn January 4th, we wrote a speculative trade piece for the January 16th Constantinople Fork. Today we will aim to replicate those trade ideas for the second attempt of the Constantinople Fork Implementation. According to the core developers, the fork will become effective on block number 7,280,000, which should occur on Feb 27th. When looking for opportunities in price movements on a SHORT-TERM thesis, one can use options to get long GAMMA, which essentially allows a trader to get highly leveraged exposure at a low-cost premium.
Below is BitOoda’s Option Run, courtesy of KRM22’s ProOpticus software. This tool is an effective way for us to keep track of option values, and calculate the Greek’s that would be associated with any options structure priced up for our clients.
When exploring opportunities for high GAMMA option plays, we shall look towards the March (3/29/19) options contracts, located in the left most column above. As you can see, the March $125 Straddle is worth ~$30. With the previous build-up, and ensuing let down of the first attempt at the Constantinople fork, we saw a price selloff from ~$155 to ~115 by the time the January options expired. The January $150 Straddle when we wrote our first Morning Report was also ~$30. This trade was a small winner (profited $5 from $30 premium = 16.67% ROI).
We also recommended buying outright At-The-Money Calls or Puts if you had a conviction on price direction. As we saw, the Puts were spectacular, and the Calls were losers.
For this second attempt at the Constantinople Fork, the core developers believe this round will go off without a hitch. If you believe in what they are saying, then buying At-The Money Calls would be your best options strategy here. If you have been following our Vol updates over the last few weeks, BTC vol has been extremely suppressed due to the lack of realized volatility in the space. The implied volatility (option values) should act similarly in ETH vol terms.
The ETH H (3/29/19) $125 Call is worth roughly $12. If you can buy at the calls at this price, that would give you a break even up to $137. Viewing this ETH chart, we feel as though it is just ‘air’ up to ~$150. In other words, we don’t believe we shall see any RESISTANCE until that level as a rally could easily gap to that price.
A Forking event in any protocol has taught us one thing; uncertainty and price volatility are sure to follow. Let’s use our past experiences and observations to take advantage of these opportunities for some speculative profits in a low-risk, high-reward manner.
$XLY Bearish Credit SpreadXLY Bearish Credit Spread - Opened. XLY leaning very bearish this morning (Monday) with a possible movement to test the 115 area as expected.
Entry 116.11.
Break Even 116.68.
1.7:1 r/r
Even with the heightened volatility this week, we will let this spread expire as it has a defined risk and reward.