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[01/20] GEX Outlook: Decision, Key Levels and Looming VolatilityLooking at the GEX levels through Friday, we can see that since mid-December, the market has been moving in a slightly downward channel. Above 6000–6025: A call gamma squeeze is expected. Between 5925 and 6000: A sideways “chop zone.” Below 5925: The high-volatility zone begins, with 5800–5850 acting as our major support/resistance level characterized by heavy put dominance. Below that level lies a “total denial zone.” We’ve seen this scenario before—think back to the red candle on December 18, when the price broke below that threshold. This “red zone” is currently around 5800, so below 5925 we can anticipate large-amplitude moves. At this point, the market still does not seem worried about significant volatility. Until Friday, all NETGEX values for every expiration are positive , so market participants are pricing in more of a sideways movement. We haven’t yet seen a big pickup in volatility. I’m not pessimistic, but keep in mind that Trump’s inauguration might usher in a high-volatility period—something the market and many retail traders haven’t experienced in a while. Better safe than sorry.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Weekly GEX Insights: 01/13 SPX dropTotal Correction? What Can an Options Trader Do in This Situation? How Far Might We Fall This Week? We’ll tackle these questions in this week’s options newsletter! It looks like the new president hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but the market is already reacting with fear to every statement he makes. Last week’s economic data didn’t help ease those concerns either. SPX Weekly Analysis Friday’s red candle set a bearish tone heading into this week. Everyone is predicting and pricing in a potential market apocalypse, and I keep getting the same question: “Greg, how far can we fall?” My answer remains the same: we can fall indefinitely—nobody can know for certain ahead of time. What we can do, however, is analyze our charts and use the our weekly GEX profile to identify the key levels, so we can better understand the market’s dynamics. Examining expirations through Friday, every NETGEX profile is negative , so we can expect volatile movements this week. We’re currently trading below the HVL level, which means that market makers are likely to move in tandem with retail traders. This typically results in bigger swings. We already saw this heightened volatility last week—just look at the size of the candles, and you can tell how quickly sentiment can shift. Below 5965 (the HVL level), we are in a high volatility zone what lies underneath? 1st Support Range: 5780–5800 5800: Currently the strongest PUT support level on the downside. A correction may pause here due to profit-taking. Right beneath this level is the previous gap-fill zone. Remember, these areas function as ranges rather than single lines, as I’ve highlighted down to 5780. This could easily be a take-profit target for traders playing gap fills—an approach that’s quite popular. 2nd Support Range: 5700–5650 (Very Strong) Starting at 5700: We encounter another robust PUT support zone. This area is reinforced by previous lows, previous highs, and the 4/8 grid boundary from our indicator. Even if nowhere else, many expect at least a local rebound to occur within these levels. Putting it all together, it’s clear that the weekly trading range is shaping up to be roughly between 5680 and 5965, expecting big & volatile moves. Remember, CPI and PPI data are coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could trigger additional volatility. When looking at SPX, SPY, or /ES futures, my opinion is that the rapidly spiking implied volatility (IV) during a market drop, along with a PUT pricing skew, can present favorable opportunities for options traders. The distance to the strongest lower support zone is around 100–150 points, so you could: Trade directionally for the short term—hoping to be either right or wrong quickly, or Try to profit from the market situation in a more strategic way (which is what I typically do). Personally, I prefer the second approach: I’ll open short-term (a few days) credit put ratio spreads for a small credit, which gives me a wide breakeven range and a big “tent” on the downside.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Bull & Bear into the New Year | Week 1 2025 $SPY OptionsAMEX:SPY Last week, our $585 PUT 1/13 was a killer, producing two daytrades that ran for 50% and 132%! Here is what we are watching for this week: We have reclaimed bullish trend and expect consolidation within this range from $584.59 to $607.45. Last two weeks have been low volume and profit taking. We are using this bullish trendline for confirmation using 15-30 minute candle closes. $601 Call 1/24 Entry: Retest and hold of bullish trendline Targets 🎯: $599, $601, $603, $608 $590 Put 1/24 Entry: Breakdown and failed retest of trendline Targets 🎯: $590, $584.59
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois
COIN buy setup for near term equity or long call options tradeStrong buy rates indicating we have another solid bounce approaching into end of Jan 2025/ next FOMC meeting, to take price to 302$ target level. Great setup for a long call options trade for 30-45 DTE duration. Expecting additional volatility after peaking above 300 so will look for discounts once again before seeking entry on calls for Sept. Weekly and monthly tf cycles analysis indicating COIN share price is preparing to run strongly higher to 750$ and 1000$ targets by early 2026. VERY Very bullish from my standpoint, given its fundamentals and disruption of traditional banking/finance sectors.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by DaveTradesLive
Kickstart 2025: SPX GEX Outlook & Options InsightsNew Year, Renewed Energy — Critical Levels and Strategies for the Week Critical Levels Se detailed image below: Above 5940 (HVL): Expect some “chop zone” between 5940 and 6000, but with a generally bullish bias based on our Auto-GEX Profiles until friday. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could ignite by Friday, pulling the index toward the next major resistance. Below 5900: Significant bearish momentum may take hold, targeting around 5800 (PUT support), though this scenario seems less likely right now. Gamma Conditions Short DTE options (0–2 days) exhibit positive gamma, which tends to buoy prices and make steep sell-offs more difficult. There’s notable IV skew in the very near-term expirations (01/08–01/09). Consider focusing on the Friday (01/10) and Monday (01/13) expirations for timespread strategies. Summary Upside: Holding above 5940 supports a move toward the 6000 target. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could propel the SPX higher. Below 5900: Watch out for a stronger bearish move toward 5800. IV and skew may be erratic this week, but the positive gamma backdrop favors upside momentum. There are several announcements due this week. If price whipsaws around these times, remember it’s often directly tied to those scheduled news releases—try not to panic. Wishing everyone a responsible and successful year of options trading in 2025!
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
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#Nifty50 What Lies Ahead for Nifty & S&p500,13-17th Jan 2025The Nifty Index experienced a sharp decline this week, closing at 23,431, a significant 570 points below the previous week's close. While the index reached a high of 24,089, it ultimately succumbed to selling pressure, finding support at 23,344. As forecasted, the Nifty traded within the predicted range of 24,500 to 23,300. For the upcoming week, I anticipate the index to remain confined within a range of 23,950 to 22,900 . Given the prevailing bearish sentiment, a potential short-term bounce could unfold next week to lure in unsuspecting buyers before a renewed downward move. Historically, whenever the Nifty has breached the support of the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (WEMA50), it has typically undergone a 5-6% correction. Based on the current level of 23,431, the Nifty may find crucial support near the 22,200-22,400 zone. Turning to the US markets, the S&P 500 found support at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA100) level of 5,817 and closed at 5,827. The upcoming week will be pivotal. If the S&P 500 successfully defends the 5,807 low, a potential rally towards the 5,926-5,944 range could materialize. However, a weekly close below the 5,800 mark would signal a significant bearish turn for global markets, potentially triggering a deeper correction towards the 5,637 or even 5,504 levels. Wishing readers a very happy Lohri and Makar Sakranti.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by ssudhirsharma11
SELLING NAKED OPTIONS : today selling 5825 SPX put for 1 weekHere is an option strategy with the help of 4 indicators Commodity Channel Index Distance to Upper and Lower Bollinger Band DMI Parabolic First I look at the emergence of a trend change through the Parabolic Then I look at the 3 other measure of strengths Most of the time selling naked works . I am expecting my DMI indicator to move into green. Then by next week should it move back to red, I will act accordingly
SP:SPXLong
by FRED-RABEMAN
Crude Oil January Futures: Bullish Option Trade SetupBuilding upon my prior analysis, where I held a bearish outlook on Crude Oil January Futures , I now present a contrasting bullish perspective. While I had previously emphasized the confidentiality of the stop-loss level for short trades, this setup focuses on a call option strategy aligned with my expectations of upward momentum in the market. For this trade, I have chosen the 6000 strike call option . The optimal entry point for this position is below ₹234.20 , providing a favorable risk-reward ratio. As of this writing, the current market quote (best offer) stands at ₹186.00 , offering an attractive entry opportunity for bullish traders. My target for this position is set at ₹468.40 , which I anticipate achieving by the contract's expiry on 15th January 2025. Key Notes: This trade is based on my personal analysis and market perspective. It is important to emphasize that this is not a trade recommendation for the public. The stop-loss level remains confidential and forms an integral part of my risk management approach. Disclaimer: Trading in options and futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. This analysis is solely my personal view and is shared for informational purposes. Perform your own due diligence or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by IndexAce