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XAUUSD Outlook: Between Fed Doubts and Dollar WeaknessHello traders, Lucas here – let’s break down the latest moves on gold! Following a failed breakdown below the 3,300 support level, gold is now entering a mild corrective phase. In the absence of strong catalysts, price is likely to remain range-bound between 3,300 and 3,340 in the near term. The market is currently shaped by a weakening US dollar and growing uncertainty around the Fed’s interest rate policy. While the USD has dropped to multi-year lows, gold is struggling to gain traction – partly due to easing geopolitical tensions and persistent hawkish signals from Fed officials. Traders are now bracing for a series of key US economic data releases, including Durable Goods Orders, GDP figures, and Initial Jobless Claims – all due before 12:30 GMT today. However, the main event remains Friday’s PCE inflation report, which could be the game-changer for rate expectations moving into H2. From a technical perspective, key levels to watch are 3,300 – 3,306 – 3,340 – 3,347, acting as intraday pivot zones. Should a false breakout occur near 3,347, a pullback toward the 3,320 – 3,307 liquidity zone may follow before bulls attempt to reclaim higher ground. Upside targets in that scenario include 3,364, 3,372 and possibly 3,396. Until a clearer narrative emerges, intraday strategies with reactive price action around these key zones remain the safest play. All the best, Lucas_Reid !
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lucas_Reid
MSTR Bulls Reload on BTC ConvictionMSTR – Institutional Flow + BTC Correlation + Bull Vertical Spread Setup MicroStrategy (MSTR), operating as “Strategy,” just went full throttle—adding 10,100 BTC between June 9–15 at an average of $104,080 per coin, totaling over $1.05B. With this, they now hold 592,100 BTC (>$63B), solidifying their status as the largest Bitcoin-holding public company. That’s a bold move amid the ongoing Israel-Iran macro uncertainty, signaling confidence, not caution. This latest BTC buy was funded via STRK and STRF ATM offerings and the $979.7M STRD preferred IPO. Since initiating their Bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020, MSTR has soared over 3,000%, and they’re projecting a 25% BTC yield for 2025 after already clocking in at 13.7% YTD. 🔎 Flow Watch Institutional activity around current price levels has been sharp—confirming conviction behind the recent momentum. With BTC hovering at critical support, I’m eyeing a potential short-term bullish reversal. Given the tight correlation between BTC and MSTR, the setup looks primed. 🎯 My Strategy I’m targeting a bull vertical spread—buying the 382.5 call and selling the 385 call. This defined-risk, limited-reward setup positions me to capture near-term upside if BTC begins a rebound and MSTR follows suit. The tight strike range and elevated IV make it ideal for a premium-efficient directional bet.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Wiiso
MKC McCormick & Company Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MKC McCormick & Company prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 85usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2026-1-16, for a premium of approximately $1.40. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:MKCLong
by TopgOptions
The Downtrend Isn’t Over – Is Gold Gearing Up for a Deeper SlideHello dear traders, Lucas here! Gold is currently showing mild technical weakness as it retests a key support zone, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to ease. Investor interest in the metal—traditionally seen as a safe haven—is fading, as the market awaits clearer signals from the US economy and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. All eyes are now on Friday’s Core PCE report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Should the data come in hotter than expected, it could strengthen the case for a rate cut as early as July, currently priced at around 21%, while the odds for a September cut stand at approximately 75%. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains volatile amid speculation over a potential change in Fed leadership and ongoing trade talks between the US, the EU, and China. The combination of policy uncertainty and weakening technical signals is keeping market participants extremely cautious. 📉 From a technical standpoint, gold may see a short-term bounce towards the 3,320 zone to grab liquidity before resuming its decline. A clear break below the 3,293 support could accelerate the downside move towards the 3,271 level. Still, a corrective bounce cannot be ruled out before the downtrend continues. Stay focused, stay disciplined, and trade with clarity during this pivotal phase. Best regards, Lucas_Reid
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lucas_Reid
1
DLTR: Range + Flow SetupDLTR – Trading Within Range Amid Strategic Evolution & Flow Anomalies Dollar Tree (DLTR) continues to show strength post–Q1 FY2025 earnings, breaking higher as it pushes through its multi-price format transition and nears the Family Dollar divestiture. The stock is outperforming key peers (DG, TJX, COST) and trading above both the 50- and 200-day MAs — a signal of growing institutional confidence. On the fundamentals: Net sales (ex-Family Dollar) jumped 11.3% to $4.64B, comps grew 5.4%, and gross margin expanded to 35.6% despite transitional headwinds. Full-year EPS was guided up to $5.15–$5.65, reflecting management’s conviction in sustained growth. Analysts responded by revising EPS to $6.12 (+13.5% YoY), validating the turnaround thesis. Valuation-wise, DLTR remains notably underpriced. It’s trading at 16.66x forward earnings — well below the retail average and far cheaper than peers like COST (51.1x), TJX (26.9x), and DG (19.0x). The gap is especially compelling given DLTR’s momentum and shift toward higher-margin discretionary sales via the “3.0” format. Unusual Activity Insight: What caught my attention was a cluster of unusual options activity suggesting a short-term strangle strategy centered around the July 18 expiration — likely positioning for the stock to stay range-bound while capturing premium from elevated IV post-earnings. The structure and OI shifts imply smart money is playing both ends of the current price band. Trading Range and Setup: DLTR has been respecting a range between $92 and $102, consolidating after its post-earnings move. That behavior, combined with the flow signals, sets the stage perfectly for a defined-risk premium play. My Approach: Iron Condor (July 18 Expiration) - Sell 100 Call / Buy 105 Call - Sell 95 Put / Buy 90 Put This iron condor aligns with the projected range, offering attractive premium while keeping defined exposure. With theta working in our favor and volatility elevated, it’s a setup that thrives in quiet bullish chop — exactly what we’ve seen since the Q1 breakout
NASDAQ:DLTR
by Wiiso
$NVDA 6/27 exp week; $150 calls. Quick ChartHello. Market is moving up off the “news” of “ceasefire” from Trump. Take what is given I suppose. NASDAQ:NVDA could see a beautiful upside towards the psych level of $150 in just one session (Tuesday, 6/24) which is just a “small” move of 3%. Could break out of its rising wedge. This name has been lackluster as of late (kinda sorta). $150 calls will be entered at open (6/24) and my first target will be $148.98. There are multiple rejections at these levels. Good luck! WSL
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by wallstreetloser001
1
Jade Lizard on PLTR - My 53DTE Summer Theta PlayMany of you — and yes, I see you in my DMs 😄 — are trading PLTR, whether using LEAPS, wheeling, or covered calls. I took a closer look. And guess what? 📈 After a strong move higher, PLTR was rejected right at the $143 call wall — pretty much all cumulative expiries cluster resistance there Using the GEX Profile indicator, scanning all expirations: After a brief dip, the market is repositioning bullish Squeeze zone extends up to 150 The most distant GEX level is sitting at 160 On the downside, 130 is firm support, with some presence even at 120 — the market isn’t pricing in much risk below that 📉 From a technical standpoint: We’re near all-time highs 125 (previous ATH) and 100 are key support levels The OTM delta curve through August is wide, and the call side is paying well — with a current call pricing skew 🔬 IVx is at 57, trending lower + call pricing skew📉 IV Rank isn't particularly high, but the directional IVx matters more here 💡 Summer Theta Play: Jade Lizard on PLTR Since I’ll be traveling this summer and don’t want to micromanage trades, I looked for something low-touch and high-confidence — and revisited an old favorite: the Jade Lizard. If you're not familiar with the strategy, I recommend checking out Tastytrade's links and videos on Jade Lizards. 🔹 Why this setup? Breakeven sits near $100, even with no management On TastyTrade margin:~$1800 initial margin ~$830 max profit 53 DTE — plenty of time for theta to work Earnings hit in August — I plan to close before then Covers all bullish GEX resistance zones Quickly turns profitable if IV doesn’t spike Highly adjustable if needed My conclusion: this strategy covers a much broader range than what the current GEX Profile shows across all expirations — so by my standards, I consider this to be a relatively lower-risk setup compared to most other symbols right now with similar theta strategies. 🔧 How would I adjust if needed? If price moves up: I’d roll the short put up to collect additional credit Hold the call vertical as long as the curve supports it If price drops: Transition into a put ratio spread Either extend or remove the call vertical depending on conditions 🛑 What’s the cut loss plan? I have about 20% wiggle room on the upside, so I’m not too worried — but if price rips through 160 quickly, I’ll have to consider early closure. If that happens, the decision depends on time: If late in the cycle with low DTE:→ Take a small loss & roll out to next month for credit If early with lots of DTE remaining:→ Consider converting to a butterfly, pushing out the call vertical for a small debit→ Offset this with credit from rolling the put upward As always — stay sharp, manage your risk, and may the profit be with you. See you next week!– Greg @ TanukiTrade
NASDAQ:PLTR
by TanukiTrade
2
Gold Pullback After Rally – Key Risk Zone at 3,340 in FocusHello dear traders, this is Lucas speaking! After a prolonged period of accumulation, gold broke out and approached the key area around 3,400. However, the price quickly reversed as liquidity failed to follow through. The rally was sharply sold off, partly due to investor uncertainty amid a cloudy global economic outlook. From my perspective, the market is reacting with surprising caution to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Although reports have emerged about U.S. airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, gold has failed to respond strongly—suggesting that investors are awaiting clearer economic signals such as PMI data from the U.S. and Eurozone, GDP figures, and the upcoming Fed statement. This "half-hearted" environment has somewhat weakened gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, especially as Iran has yet to retaliate in any decisive way. As such, the market’s current focus remains a delicate balance between geopolitics and macroeconomic data. From a technical standpoint, gold is currently trading above the 3,340–3,350 zone, which is considered a key buy area. A retest of liquidity may be underway, and if buyers can defend this zone, a move back toward 3,400 is very much on the table. On the flip side, if the reaction around 3,340 is weak and support breaks down further, a decline toward 3,300 could become likely. However, if we see a false break followed by a strong rebound and breakout of the bullish structure, that would serve as an early signal for another upward leg. Warm regards, Lucas_Reid
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lucas_Reid
[06/16] Weekly GEX Roadmap - Diagonal Spreads or Put Hedges?📊 Weekly GEX Map (SPX) This week’s GEX profile looks nearly identical to last week: Positive bias above 6020 up to 6100 But a sticky chop zone remains from 5975 to 6020 Below 5950? That’s where things get interesting… ⚠️ What Happens If 5950 Fails? In that case - welcome to negative gamma territory: Delta becomes unstable → fast, erratic moves Gamma loses influence → hedging effectiveness drops Dealer hedging lags → market makers chase, not lead Vega + theta distort readings → charm decay accelerates Result: GEX zones lose clarity. Pinning breaks down. Reactions become nonlinear and emotional. If we drop below 5950, we might see acceleration instead of stabilization — despite the positive GEX profile. 💡 Trade Idea of the Week – With Caution If not for Wednesday's macro risk (Fed rate decision), I'd suggest a bullish diagonal spread toward 6100–6150: Limited downside Defined risk Covers the full squeeze zone But with FOMC looming, I'd only hold this trade until Thursday and close once the debit doubles or earlier. 🧨 Macro + Geo Risks Fed is priced for “no move” → any surprise = volatility spike Rising tensions with Iran → oil and futures could react violently Recommendation : Avoid OIL this week, especially futures and naked strategies 🛡️ Prefer Downside Protection? If you expect weakness on SPX weekly: Consider a put debit spread with the short leg at 5950, where the second strongest Put Support sits. This type of structure can offer up to 6:1 reward-to-risk, making it one of the most efficient bearish hedges for this week. If you enjoyed the above breakdown, feel free to check out my previous weekly analyses or explore my tools as well. Until next time – Trade what you see, not what you hope, – Greg @ TanukiTrade
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
4
AAPL: Premium PlayApple beat expectations this quarter—revenue, profit, EPS—all slightly better than analysts hoped. But the stock dropped to $196.26, down from $212.83. Why? Investors are still worried about tariffs, margin pressure, and supply chain changes. Tim Cook talked about strong product sales (iPhone, Mac, iPad) and all-time high Services revenue. But he also admitted tariffs and regulatory issues are weighing on Apple’s outlook. My Covered Call Strategy I’m selling the $202.5 call and buying the $210 call for June 27, 2025. Big money seems to be doing the same—there was a huge premium sale over $2 million, likely betting Apple stays range-bound short term. - Why this works: - Resistance near $202.50 gives me a clear ceiling - Apple fundamentals are strong, but macro risk caps upside Chart Notes - Resistance: $202.50 and $210 - Support: Around $192.50 Bottom line: I like this trade as a way to bring in income while defining my risk. If Apple grinds sideways or pushes a bit higher, the trade still pays. Clean structure, high odds.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Wiiso
DG Trading Setup: Capitalizing on RangeDollar General has experienced a stabilization phase following its Q1 2025 results, with same-store sales increasing 2.4% and revenue growing 5.3% to $10.4 billion. The company has regained traction in the discount retail space, mitigating previous challenges related to shrink and operational inefficiencies. Institutional Flow & Market Positioning Recent institutional flow highlights large orders in DG’s 115 call and 110 put, signaling either: - A range-bound setup, where smart money expects the stock to stay between $110-$115 in the near term. - Potential volatility, with institutions hedging both directions ahead of an unexpected move. Considering the ATR (18) and standard deviation (7.353), this aligns with a low-breakout probability, making range-based strategies the optimal play. The absence of earnings between now and July further supports sideways movement expectations. Options Trade Setup: Iron Condor To capitalize on premium decay and IV contraction, I’m structuring an iron condor: - Sell 115 Call / Buy 120 Call - Sell 110 Put / Buy 105 Put This strategy ensures limited risk while collecting premium in a high-probability range trade.
NYSE:DG
by Wiiso
MU Options Insight: Bulls Eyeing $123Fundamental Overview Micron Technology's $200 billion expansion plan aligns with the broader push for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. The company is investing $150 billion in fabrication plants across Idaho, New York, and Virginia, while $50 billion is allocated for high-bandwidth memory packaging and R&D. This move strengthens Micron’s position in AI-driven demand and supply chain resilience. The CHIPS and Science Act funding of $6.4 billion and eligibility for the Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit further bolster Micron’s financial outlook. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra emphasized that this expansion will create tens of thousands of jobs and reinforce U.S. tech leadership. Technical Analysis Micron’s stock is currently near a 12-month high, up 37% year to date. The momentum remains strong, with institutional activity suggesting bullish sentiment. - Options Flow Insight: A vertical bull spread was spotted in Times & Sales, with 118 strike contracts executed on the ask and 123 strike contracts executed on the bid simultaneously. This suggests a bullish stance, as traders anticipate further upside. - Expiration Consideration: The June 20 expiration (4 days away) indicates a short-term bullish outlook, likely targeting a breakout above $123. - Institutional Positioning: The 500 additional contracts at 118 reinforce the bullish bias. If MU moves beyond $123, traders holding the spread still profit, confirming strong conviction in upside potential.
NASDAQ:MULong
by Wiiso
Why Recursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX Could Be the NVDA of BiotechRecursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX is rapidly emerging as a transformative force in drug discovery, leveraging cutting-edge artificial intelligence and automation to industrialize and accelerate the development of new medicines. Here’s why RXRX could be the next NVIDIA (NVDA) of biotechnology and why its stock could soar by year-end: 1. AI-Powered Drug Discovery Platform with Unmatched Scale Recursion integrates AI, machine learning, automation, and advanced data science to decode biology and chemistry, dramatically reducing the time and cost of drug discovery. The company’s proprietary BioHive-2 supercomputer, built with NVIDIA’s DGX H100 systems, is the most powerful AI computing system wholly owned by any biopharma company, enabling Recursion to process biological data at unprecedented speeds. By reducing the number of compounds needed for clinical candidates from thousands to just 136–200 and shrinking development timelines to under a year, RXRX is fundamentally changing the economics of pharmaceutical R&D. 2. Strategic Partnerships and Industry Validation RXRX has forged high-profile partnerships with pharmaceutical giants such as Bayer, Roche/Genentech, Takeda, and Sanofi, validating its platform and unlocking milestone payments that could exceed $20 billion over time. The company’s collaboration with AI biotech Exscientia in a $700 million deal further cements its leadership in the AI-driven drug discovery space, creating a pipeline of 10 clinical and preclinical programs with hundreds of millions in potential milestones. NVIDIA itself holds over 7.7 million shares of RXRX, making it one of NVIDIA’s largest biotech investments and a strong endorsement of Recursion’s technology and long-term vision. 3. Explosive Revenue Growth and Strong Cash Position Analysts forecast Recursion’s revenue to grow at a 65% CAGR from $58.8 million in 2024 to $263 million by 2027, far outpacing the broader biotech sector. The company ended 2024 with over $600 million in cash, providing a solid runway for continued investment in R&D, platform expansion, and clinical trials. Wall Street analysts expect more than 50% upside in RXRX stock over the next 12–24 months, with multiple clinical milestones and partnership announcements as near-term catalysts. 4. Disruptive Vision: The “Virtual Cell” and Beyond RXRX is building toward a “virtual cell,” where AI models can simulate biological processes with such accuracy that wet lab experiments shift from data generation to validating computational predictions. This approach could dramatically improve drug development success rates, addressing the industry’s notorious 95% failure rate and positioning Recursion as the go-to platform for next-generation drug discovery. 5. Market Sentiment and Institutional Support RXRX has caught the attention of growth investors and major funds, including Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, further boosting its profile and liquidity. Recent stock surges and high trading volumes reflect growing investor confidence in Recursion’s disruptive potential and the broader AI-in-biotech trend.
NASDAQ:RXRXLong
by TopgOptions
11
[06/09] [GEX] Weekly SPX OutlookLast week’s outlook played out quite well — as anticipated, SPX hit the 6000 level, closing exactly there on Friday. This was the realistic target we highlighted in last week's idea. 🔭 SPX: The Bigger Outlook It's difficult to say whether the rising SPX trend will continue. We're still in the "90-day agreement period" set by the administration, and so far, the market has shown resilience, avoiding deeper pullbacks like the one we saw in April. With VIX hovering around 17–18, we’ve reached a zone where further SPX upside would require volatility. For the index to continue rising meaningfully, it needs to reverse the current bearish macro environment, and that can only happen with strong buying momentum — not a slow grind. The parallel downward channel drawn a few weeks ago is still technically valid. Even a short 100-point squeeze would fit within this structure before a larger move down unfolds. GEX levels give us useful clues heading into Friday. We're currently in a net positive GEX zone across all expirations, giving bulls a structural advantage, just like last week. As of Monday’s premarket, SPX spot is at 6009.The Gamma Flip zone is between 5975–5990, with a High Volume Level (HVL) at 5985. 🔍 Let’s zoom in with our GEX levels — this gives us a deeper view than our GEX Profile indicator for TradingView alone. 🐂 🟢 If SPX moves higher, the following are logical profit-taking zones: 6050 (Delta ≈ 33) 6075 (Delta ≈ 25) 6100 (Delta ≈ 17) 🎯 Targeting above 6100 currently feels irrational — for instance, the next major gamma squeeze zone is at 6150, but that corresponds to a delta 6 level (≈94% chance the price closes below it), so I won’t aim that high yet. 🐻🔴 In a bearish scenario: 5975 and 5950 are the first nearby support zones (Deltas 30 and 38). If momentum picks up, 5900 becomes reachable quickly, even if it's technically a 17-delta distance — because that’s deep in the negative GEX zone. 📅 Don’t forget: On Wednesday premarket, we’ll get Core Inflation Rate data — a key macro risk that could shake things up, regardless of TSLA drama fading. 📌 SPX Weekly Trading Plan Conclusion Whatever your bias, keep cheap downside hedges in place. We've been rising for a long time, and even if SPX breaks out of the descending channel temporarily, resistance and the gamma landscape may pull price back swiftly.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
5
[GEX] TSLA Breakdown & Options Trade Idea for 39DTELast week, TSLA dropped hard, likely due to political tensions. Let’s not forget — just a month ago, their EVs were showcased at the White House entrance... In the span of 30 hours, TSLA fell -22% (see red line below), while SPX barely reacted. Why? Because both realized and implied volatility dropped — remember VIX is around 17/18. This sharp TSLA drop already seemed overdone, which helped fuel the +5% bounce on Friday.Most TSLA options positions are near-term and still show negative sentiment — but further expirations grow increasingly bullish. 🔍 If you use options GEX matrix , you’ll see the bearish hedging flow gradually turns more neutral-to-bullish. Most cumulative support/resistance zones lie between 250–340, with spot currently just under the chop zone. 🧠 TSLA Trade Idea It’s been a while since I posted a neutral Iron Condor, but TSLA might be an exception. Despite last week’s IV spike, call pricing skew still dominates across expirations — as seen in our Options Overlay indicator.This tells me the market doesn’t fear TSLA crashing below 200. So, I’m aiming to capture premium on the July 18th expiry without day trading. I’m thinking of something simple, well-manageable in either direction.To refine leg placement, I use visual GEX zones. 🐻🔴 Downside: Strong put support at 250 Gradual support layers up to 280 🐂 🟢 Upside: Target area: 340–350 for the July 18 expiry. 📅 Closing the Trade:I'll consider closing or adjusting at 21 DTE or when 50% max profit is hit — per TastyTrade’s studies. 🔁 Rolling Plan:IF short delta on one side drops below ~14 and price pulls away, I’ll roll the untested side to collect more credit. 🧑‍🏫 I’ll likely post trade management live in Discord for educational purposes. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 🦋 Bonus Idea: TSLA Broken Wing Butterfly If you think TSLA has more downside, a Put Broken Wing Butterfly — like the one shown in my previous YT video — is also a great way to structure this trade using the same GEX levels. There’s no single way to use Gamma Exposure — it’s the most actionable hedging signal we have. Combine it with your knowledge of strategies and you can trade almost any scenario. One thing’s for sure — this market moves faster than ever.A single day of internal conflict wiped -22% off TSLA…The next morning, the market already moved on, so as always: Trade Safe Out There!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TanukiTrade