SPY LIVE 28th NOV,2023This is my live analysis for SPY & please focus on the positive points discussed in the analysis.
SPY can retrace at any moment now.
NOTE:DO NOT SHORT THE MARKET
Optionstrading
84% PoP - Playing the Oil Prices with /MCL Futures $USO $CL
I've decided to make a play on the oil prices and chose /MCL futures for this venture. The trade required a BP (buying power) of $600, with a maximum profit potential of 1.07cr. This sets up a favorable risk-reward ratio of 1:6. The IVR (Implied Volatility Rank) stands at 51, which is advantageous for the credit strategies I prefer. With a PoP (Probability of Profit) of 84%, the conditions seem ideal for the 34 days duration I've set for selling the 70 put leg.
I opened an semi-bullish position with a put short on the January expiry /MCL futures. My expectation is that the oil prices will either not fall too rapidly or will actually rise. For future management of this position, I have two scenarios in mind:
If the Oil Continues to Fall Strongly: In case the oil continues its strong downtrend, I plan to sell a call leg on top, transforming the position into a strangle from the current naked put. If the fall is steep, or I fear that the break-even point of $69 might be breached, I'll hedge my risk by purchasing a put around the 60 strike, turning it into a credit spread and wait for the 21 DTE (Days to Expiry).
Stagnant or Slight Rebound in Oil Prices: If the oil price doesn't move much or rebounds slightly, I'll quickly close my position for a profit. The target? About 50% of the original credit received for writing the put, which amounts to roughly $50. This would mean a 10% return on my utilized capital, which I find quite satisfactory.
In summary, this strategic move in oil futures trading is well-aligned with my risk appetite and trading preferences, providing a good balance between risk management and profit potential.
SPY WEEKLY 27th NOV,2023This is my weekly analysis for SPY. If you have any questions feel free to ask me. SPY is trying to go up and retracement is due and I have explained it clearly in this analysis.
NOTE:DO NOT SHORT AS MARKET WILL RETRACE ONLY TO GO HIGHER
Option TradingOption Trading work based on a contract that gives the buyer the right to buy or sell a certain asset, at a predetermined price (strike price) within a certain time period.
A very simple task, but is there a clear technical analysis method that can provide consecutive wins?
This post is not trading advice, just a statistical hypothesis test. I will try in 100 candles, and stop if the win rate is below 70%
If you are an options trader, or are interested in learning the system I use, please follow this post.
INTU Intuit Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven't bought INTU ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of INTU Intuit prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 560usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-12-1,
for a premium of approximately $11.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ADSK Autodesk Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought ADSK ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ADSK Autodesk prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 210usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-11-24,
for a premium of approximately $4.00.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Dollar General $DG - Cash Secured Put Trade IdeaOn Wed Nov 22 2023 I entered a cash secured put trade on NYSE:DG
I did this for several reasons:
Price closed above the 50MA on daily candles.
Price broke out of the horizontal support.
Price closed above a medium/long term diaginal support.
Moving averages are crossing over and sloping upwards.
Price is oversold as the stock has fallen by approximately -62% from its October 2022 high.
The stock volatility was at 94% giving th edge to option sellers, yet we are still 15 days away from NYSE:DG earnings.
Earnings are another example why I think the price of my put will expire OTM and I will get to keep this inflated premium. You see the bar for NYSE:DG earnings as set by the analysts is pretty low, with the estimates of EPS: $1.197 and Revenue: $9.648B, both I believe could be low targets for NYSE:DG based on their historic and last quarter results.
There is also an unfilled bullish gap from a technical perspective above the current price at around the $138.44-$157.60 level.
I sold a DEC 15 $115 PUT for a premium of $2.95 per contract. My thoughts are that the contracts will expire worthless and that I will be able to keep the premium. If the volatility drops from the current levels I will realize my profits faster. Depending on how much profit gets captured from the option I might exit early before earnings and lock in profits without increasing my risk due to the upcoming earnings, as we know during earnings its a coin toss and anything can happen.
This is my first post idea on TradingView, hope this was helpful for the readers. If so, follow me for more ideas on stock and option trading.
Enjoy the weekend and good luck next week!
Adobe AnalysisJust closed my position with a 39% gain! 🚀 Adobe is currently trading at $620, showcasing a strong bullish trend with potential for further growth. Based on current momentum, there are two key scenarios to watch:
1. Bullish Continuation: The price could surge towards the $640 mark, extending its bullish trajectory.
2. P otential Retracement: Alternatively, if it breaks below the $620 level, we might see a pullback to around $600.
Stay alert for these pivotal movements. Both scenarios offer significant trading opportunities. Keep an eye on the market and stay tuned for more updates! 🌟
#Adobe #StockAnalysis #TradingView
TMC the metals company Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought TMC before the spike:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of TMC the metals company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 1usd strike price at the money long term Calls with
an expiration date of 2026-1-16,
for a premium of approximately $0.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
FUTU Holdings Limited Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought FUTU`s dip here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RUM Rumble prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 64usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-24,
for a premium of approximately $1.33.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ZM Zoom Video Communications Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold ZM here:
or ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RUM Rumble prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 60usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-11-24,
for a premium of approximately $1.25.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
90% win rate 🚀 Unveil an easy $GLD Call Play with naked #goldHey everyone, Greg is here with a quick rundown of today’s options trading play. I entered the ring with a naked call on AMEX:GLD , aiming for that sweet spot of easy returns on a maximal Pop trade. Today’s golden ticket could net me a max profit of $118 with a probability of profit (PoP) sitting pretty at 80%, all while tying up $3000 of buying power and riding on an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 20%.
The game plan was simple: watch the market, play it cool, and have a couple of scenarios up my sleeve:
(Scenario A) If the price hikes, I'll pivot to a strangle, balancing out with a sold put to accompany my call.
(Scenario B) If it looks like easy money, I’ll lock in those gains and close out the current trade, quick and clean.
The strategy is all about simplicity, with an exit plan to bow out gracefully at about 65% of the max profit. As of today, November 5, 2023, that naked call is open and I’m in the market.
To wrap it up, here’s the play-by-play for today:
Date: November 5 , 2023
Strategy: Naked Call on AMEX:GLD
Opening Credit: $118
Expected Profit: Exiting at ~65% of max profit
Probability of Profit (PoP): 80%
Required Buying Power (Req.BP): $3000
Implied Volatility Rank (IVR): 20
Current Position Balance (as of opening): $118 of credit (1.18cr)
Stay tuned to see which scenario unfolds and how the trade’s balance shifts in the coming days. Keep it easy, folks!
RUM Rumble Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RUM Rumble prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 5usd strike price in the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $0.82.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Daily Trend Reversion Options PlayOpened a position on EURJPY to fade the move back towards the Daily uptrend. Decided to go with an option for this with Exp on Friday Nov 10th @160.500 strike.
Price accelerated away from the uptrend after the BoJ announcement on Oct 31st, before it pulled in and supported at 159.500 for a couple days and rallied again. I feel this provides a good risk reward on the idea, supported by intra-day bearish price action today.
It looked like we had broken down yesterday, but price reversed and regained VWAP. After that though we only made a marginal new high in Asia and has since trades back below VWAP and failed to hold support at 160.850.
LCID Lucid Group Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LCID Lucid Group prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 5usd strike price in the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-11-17,
for a premium of approximately $0.60.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Pick one or twoThese stocks are clearly in a downtrend and testing the downtrend line resistance. I have puts of TGT that I bought on Friday. If you want to trade one of these I recommend to open a limit order at a better price than it closed on Friday for the puts and pick a strike price close to the current price. You can also buy puts with different strike prices to balance out you risk. My TGT puts expire on 11/10 and strike 113. I may buy more but depends how the week goes. Always think on your risk reward, If price opens with a gap down just move to another trade.
Post-event high PoP STRANGLE on my favorite techstockOf course! Here's a polished version for your blog post in English:
Post-Event Strangle with 51 Days to Expiration
IVR30
Probability of Profit (PoP): 69%
Max Profit: $260
Required Buying Power (Req.BP): $1627
Explanation to follow.
AFRM Affirm Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought AFRM ahead of the previous earnings:
or when you saw those big puts adding:
Then Analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AFRM Affirm Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $2.17.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
GILD Gilead Sciences Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought GILD on the Remdesivir approval:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GILD Gilead Sciences prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 80usd strike price in the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $4.25.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
CELH Celsius Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CELH Celsius Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 180usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-17,
for a premium of approximately $10.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SPY WEEKLY|6th NOV,2023This is my weekly analysis for SPY and I am neutral for SPY. I have explained everything very clearly.
If you have any doubts or questions, do let me know.
NOTE:PATIENCE IS THE KEY
DKNG DraftKings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on DKNG here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DKNG DraftKings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 30usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $1.93.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ARDX Ardelyx Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t bought ARDS before it went up 6X:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ARDX Ardelyx prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 4usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $0.45.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
