Get started

Optionstrading

Quiet Before the Volatility Storm: WTI Crude Oil Options PlaysStay tuned! Beyond this exploration of WTI Crude Oil options plays, we're excited to bring you a series of educational ideas dedicated to all types of options strategies. More insights coming soon! Introduction to Market Volatility In the realm of commodity trading, WTI Crude Oil stands out for its susceptibility to rapid price changes, making market volatility a focal point for traders. This volatility, essentially the rate at which the price of oil increases or decreases for a given set of returns, is a crucial concept for anyone involved in the oil market. It affects not only the risk and return profile of direct investments in crude oil but also plays a pivotal role in the pricing of derivatives and options tied to this commodity. Volatility in the crude oil market can be attributed to a myriad of factors, ranging from geopolitical developments and supply-demand imbalances to economic indicators and natural disasters. For options traders, understanding the nuances of volatility is paramount, as it directly influences option pricing models through metrics such as Vega, which indicates the sensitivity of an option's price to changes in the volatility of the underlying asset. By delving into both historical and implied volatility, traders can gain insights into past market movements and future expectations, respectively. Historical volatility provides a retrospective view of price fluctuation intensity over a specific period, offering a statistical measure of market risk. Implied volatility, on the other hand, reflects the market's forecast of a likely range of movement in crude oil prices, derived from the price of options. Incorporating volatility analysis into trading strategies enables options traders to make more informed decisions, particularly when considering positions in WTI Crude Oil options. Whether aiming to capitalize on anticipated market movements or to hedge against potential price drops, volatility remains a critical element of successful trading in the oil market. News as a Catalyst for Volatility The crude oil market, with its global significance, is incredibly sensitive to news, where even rumors can precipitate fluctuations in prices. Recent events have starkly demonstrated this phenomenon, showcasing how geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ decisions, and inventory data can serve as major catalysts for volatility in WTI Crude Oil markets. 1. Geopolitical Tensions: Middle East Conflicts Geopolitical events, especially in oil-rich regions like the Middle East, have a pronounced impact on oil prices. For instance, conflicts or tensions in this area can lead to fears of supply disruptions, prompting immediate spikes in oil prices due to the region's significant contribution to global oil supply. Such events underscore the market's vulnerability to geopolitical instability and the swift reaction of oil prices to news suggesting potential supply threats. 2. OPEC+ Production Decisions The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, play a pivotal role in global oil markets through their production decisions. An announcement by OPEC+ to cut production usually leads to an increase in oil prices, as the market anticipates a tighter supply. Conversely, decisions to increase production can cause prices to drop. These actions directly influence market sentiment and volatility, illustrating the significant impact of OPEC+ policies on global oil markets. 3. Inventory Data Releases Weekly inventory data from major consumers like the United States can lead to immediate reactions in the oil market. An unexpected increase in crude oil inventories often leads to a decrease in prices, reflecting concerns over demand or oversupply. Conversely, a significant draw in inventories can lead to price spikes, as it may indicate higher demand or supply constraints. These inventory reports are closely watched by market participants as indicators of supply-demand balance, affecting trading strategies and market volatility. Each of these events has the potential to cause significant movements in WTI Crude Oil prices, affecting the strategies of traders and investors alike. By closely monitoring these developments, market participants can better anticipate volatility and adjust their positions accordingly, highlighting the importance of staying informed on current events and their potential impact on the market. Technical Analysis Tools: Bollinger Bands and the 14-Day ADX A sophisticated approach to navigating the fluctuating markets of WTI Crude Oil could involve the combined use of Bollinger Bands and the 14-day Average Directional Index (ADX). While Bollinger Bands measure market volatility and provide visual cues about the market's overbought or oversold conditions, the ADX offers a unique perspective on market momentum and trend strength. The 14-Day ADX is pivotal in assessing the strength of a trend. A rising ADX indicates a strengthening trend, whether bullish or bearish, while a declining ADX suggests a weakening trend or the onset of a range-bound market. For options traders, particularly those interested in the long strangle strategy, the ADX provides valuable information. A low or declining ADX signals a weak or non-existent trend. Bollinger Bands® serve as a dynamic guide to understanding market volatility. In this case an idea could be to apply Bollinger Bands® to the 14-Day ADX values instead of the WTI Crude Oil Futures prices. When combined, a pierce of the lower Bollinger Bands®, may suggest an opportune moment to establish a long strangle position in anticipation of a forthcoming breakout while options prices may be underpriced. This combined approach allows traders to fine tune their entry and exit points. By waiting for the ADX to signal a nascent trend and Bollinger Bands to indicate a period of low volatility, traders can position themselves advantageously before significant market movements. Strategizing with Bollinger Bands and ADX: In the dance of market analysis, the interplay between the ADX and Bollinger Bands choreographs a strategy of precision. Traders can look for moments when the market is quiet and options are underpriced. This dual-focus approach maximizes the potential of entering a long strangle options trade at the most opportune time, aiming for potential gains from subsequent volatility spikes in the WTI Crude Oil market. Strategies for Trading WTI Crude Oil Options In the volatile landscape of WTI Crude Oil trading, strategic agility is paramount. One strategy that stands out for its ability to harness volatility is the long strangle. This strategy is especially relevant in periods of low implied volatility (IV), providing traders with a unique opportunity to capitalize on potential market shifts without committing to a specific direction of the move. Understanding the Long Strangle The long strangle options strategy involves purchasing both a call option and a put option on the same underlying asset, WTI Crude Oil in this case, with the same expiration date but at different strike prices. The call option has a higher strike price than the current underlying price, while the put option has a lower strike price. This setup positions the trader to profit from significant price movements in either direction. The beauty of the long strangle lies in its flexibility and the limited risk exposure it offers. The total risk is confined to the premiums paid for the options, making it a controlled way to speculate on expected volatility. This strategy is particularly appealing when the IV of options is low, implying that the market expects calm but the trader anticipates turbulence ahead. Risk Management and the Importance of Timing Risk management is a critical component of successfully implementing the long strangle strategy. The key to minimizing risk while maximizing potential reward is timing. Entering the trade when IV is low—and, consequently, the cost of options is relatively cheaper—allows for greater profitability if the anticipated volatility materializes and the price of the underlying asset moves significantly. The Implications of a Limited Risk Strategy A limited risk strategy like the long strangle ensures that traders know their maximum potential loss upfront—the total amount of premiums paid. This predefined risk exposure is particularly advantageous in the unpredictable oil market, where sudden price swings can otherwise lead to substantial losses. Moreover, the limited risk nature of the long strangle allows traders to maintain a balanced portfolio, allocating a portion of their capital to speculative trades without jeopardizing their entire investment. It's a strategic approach that leverages the inherent volatility of WTI Crude Oil, potentially turning market uncertainties into opportunities. Case Studies: Real-world Applications of the Long Strangle in WTI Crude Oil Trading In the ever-volatile world of WTI Crude Oil trading, several events have starkly highlighted the efficacy of the long strangle strategy. These case studies exemplify how sudden market movements, driven by unforeseen news or geopolitical developments, can provide significant opportunities for prepared traders. Here, we explore instances where shifts in volatility facilitated lucrative trades, underscoring the potential of strategic options plays. Case Study 1 : Geopolitical Escalation in the Middle East Event Overview: An unexpected escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to concerns over potential supply disruptions. Given the region's pivotal role in global oil production, any threat to its stability can significantly impact crude oil prices. Trading Strategy: Anticipating increased volatility, traders employing the long strangle strategy before the escalation could imply significant gains. As prices surged in response to the tensions, the value of a strangle would have potentially increased. Case Study 2 : Surprise OPEC+ Production Cut Announcement Event Overview: In a move that caught markets off-guard, OPEC+ announced a substantial cut in oil production. The decision aimed at stabilizing prices instead triggered a sharp increase in volatility as traders scrambled to adjust their positions. Trading Strategy: Traders with long strangle positions in place could have capitalized on the sudden price jump. Case Study 3 : Major Hurricane Disrupts Gulf Oil Production Event Overview: A major hurricane hit the Gulf Coast, disrupting oil production and refining operations. The immediate threat to supply lines led to a spike in oil prices, reflecting the market's rapid response to supply-side shocks. Trading Strategy: The long strangle strategy could be invaluable for traders who had positioned themselves ahead of the hurricane season. The abrupt increase in crude oil prices following the hurricane highlighted the strategy's advantage in situations where directional market movements are expected but their exact nature is uncertain. Conclusion These case studies illustrate the practical application of the long strangle strategy in navigating the tumultuous waters of WTI Crude Oil trading. By strategically entering positions during periods of low implied volatility, traders can set themselves up for success, leveraging market movements to their advantage while maintaining a controlled risk profile. The key takeaway is the importance of vigilance and readiness to act on sudden market changes, employing comprehensive risk management practices to safeguard investments while exploring speculative opportunities. The essence of trading in such a dynamic market lies not just in predicting future movements but in preparing for them through well-thought-out strategies and an acute understanding of market indicators and global events. The long strangle options strategy, with its limited risk and potential for significant returns, exemplifies this approach, offering a compelling method for traders aiming to capitalize on the inherent volatility of WTI Crude Oil. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
TSLA beginning another leg down SHORTOn the 15-minute chart, TSLA has been in a downtrend and for about one week, a correction has been underway. Based on a Fibonacci analysis of the downtrend and and its retracement, I do not believe that TSLA will breakthrough the fib level zone. The zero-lag MACD is showing bearish divergence from the price action. In that consideration, I have held my put options through this correction suffering unrealized losses but now look forward to another leg down. Musk's recent court ruling nullifying his compensation package in federal court lends a bearish perspective as does his distractions with the brain implant company which now has its first patient ( FDA approved) and of course the space and tunnel companies. ( Autism and ADHD can be a blessing and a curse at the same time - IMO) I am long LCID given its Saudi Arabian support and growing production schedules supported by the SA plant. For now I am content to short TSLA until the Meusk drama settles down and the watch to see if price lowering will expand demand numbers et cetera.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by AwesomeAvani
11
NET / Cloudfare Pre-Earnings before the big beat Trade ReviewNET on the 15-minute chart demonstrates the swing-long trades of this past week. 5-6 entries and 3-4 exits- accumulating a few shares at a time and closing only one at a time to gradually average up. The setup is explained in the chart textboxes. Using TV indicators for line crossing alerts to minimize the effort of time. Trade is still open and following the trend of price action. NET reached orbit in the last-minute run-up before the big earnings beat. Nine shares and one call contract on the ready for the launch with advanced planning. It was good enough for now. The call contract will come off the table before the NY lunch hour. The shares will run the weekend and be on watch for over-extension and fade next week.
NYSE:NETLong
by AwesomeAvani
PYPL PayPal Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsPYPL had some events in the past 2 years that determined its price action. Went down after its CFO left for Walmart: Had a technical rebound buy opportunity after reaching the 2017 support: and determined a lot of users leaving their platform after announcing a $2.5K fine for spreading misinformation: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PYPL PayPal Holdings prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 60usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2024-6-21, for a premium of approximately $8.20. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by TopgOptions
BTCUSDT: Getting hotThe price of Bitcoin is currently on an upward trend since last Thursday. BTC reached its highest point in two weeks at $43,990 before undergoing a correction. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $43,374. Looking ahead, BTC faces a resistance level in the range of $43,870 to $45,562, which could lead to a further price drop. In the event of a decrease, the price of Bitcoin may sharply decline to a psychological support level at $40,000. If this level is broken, the next support zone will be between $38,535 and $38,574.
by TradingForecast_Signals
PTON Peloton Interactive Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PTON Peloton Interactive prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 8usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-1-17, for a premium of approximately $1.45. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. PTON might be a buyout this year. From one of these giants: AAPL, AMZN or NKE!
NASDAQ:PTONLong
by TopgOptions
Crude Oil is Primed for Gamma ScalpingCrude Oil price have remained sharply range bound for the last two months. CME Group’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures have traded between USD 70-80 a barrel since early November last year. Sharply shifting supply and demand outlook explains range bound trading in crude oil. In this paper, we discuss diverging factors affecting crude oil price and illustrate gamma scalping strategy to harness returns from range bound price moves. Gamma scalping is a well-established dynamic options strategy that enables investment returns from sharply oscillating price moves. CRUDE OIL’S DIVERGING PRICE OUTLOOK Tailwinds powering the oil prices increase is fuelled by (a) OPEC+ members decisions on deep supply cuts, and (b) geopolitical risks in the middle east remains elevated. On the day of the conflict escalation, crude prices spiked 2.6% higher. Some of these attacks have affected crude oil tankers in the region risking supply disruptions. Headwinds pressing oil prices down include record US crude oil production. The US churned 13.25 million bpd (barrels per day) of oil in Q3. That is more than 3 million bpd higher than Russia (second largest producer). EIA expects strong US production to continue through 2024 with growth driven by rising well efficiencies in US oil rigs. Globally, crude production growth is expected to slow but still rise by 0.6 million bpd in 2024 with higher US production offsetting the decline from OPEC nations. Expectedly, this has led to a widening premium for Brent crude compared to WTI. Demand outlook for crude oil remains uncertain. Slowdown in demand growth remains a concern. EIA forecasts global oil consumption to rise by 1.4 million bpd in 2024. This represents a slowdown in growth compared to prior years (1.9 million bpd in 2023). Slower economic growth translates into lower crude oil consumption. As such, supply-demand dynamic may remain unchanged despite slowing production growth. NAVIGATING DIVERGING OIL OUTLOOK With both bullish and bearish drivers for crude oil in active play, a directional position in crude oil might not be able to provide intended hedge for adverse price move. In a market with plenty of uncertainty and characterised by oscillating prices, gamma scalping can be used to harness consistent gains. INTRODUCTION TO GAMMA SCALPING IN CRUDE OIL Gamma scalping is an options trading strategy in which a trader continually adjusts their holdings to profit from small price movements in the underlying, while maintaining a directionally neutral position. Gamma scalping involves dynamic hedging by continually neutralising options delta. Delta is the value by which options prices change for every dollar change in crude oil price. Gamma is the value by which delta changes for every dollar change in crude oil price. Gamma scalping profits from small & frequent volatility in crude oil prices regardless price direction. With gamma scalping, traders can gain from both upward and downward price moves. ILLUSTRATING GAMMA SCALPING IN CRUDE OIL Gamma can be scalped in multiple ways. Common among them involves establishing a long straddle which is a combination of long call and a long put using at-the-money (“ATM”) options expiring on the same date. Hypothetically, we can follow three simple steps to set up gamma scalping: Step 1: Buy (“Long”) ATM Call Option and Put Option (aka Long Straddle) At the hypothetical strike price of USD 70/barrel, premiums required for buying Straddle (calls and puts at-the-money option expiring on 14/Jun 2024) is USD 12/barrel (USD 6 each for call and put) which translates to USD 12,000 per lot. At inception, the delta should be at or near zero. In practice, delta for ATM calls and ATM puts can differ and the position may have a net non-zero delta. Investors can reference the pricing sheet on CME QuikStrike for realistic options premiums, delta values, and strikes. The gamma of the long ~0.025 x 2 = 0.05. Gamma is the value by which delta will change for each change in crude oil price. Long straddle at inception is delta neutral. Meaning, it does not have directional exposure. However, it has long exposure of 0.05 gamma which signals that delta will change when crude oil prices move. Step 2: Dynamic Hedging When Crude Prices Move Higher Consider an up-move of ten points with crude trading up at USD 80/barrel. This results in a new delta of +0.5 (due to Gamma of 0.05 and 10 point move in crude prices: 10 * 0.05 = 0.5 per barrel). This translated to delta of 500 per lot of long straddle. To remain delta neutral, trader needs to sell 5 contracts of CME Micro WTI to balance the increased delta. As a result, the overall position now consists of: • Long 1 x ATM call option with a strike price of USD 70, with expiry 14/June (LON24). • Long 1 x ATM put option with a strike price of USD 70, with expiry 14/June (LON24). • Short 5 x Micro WTI futures contract (MCLN2024) which provides exposure to 500 barrels of oil at USD 80/barrel. Step 3: Harvesting Gains via Dynamic Hedging when Crude Prices Fall Imagine crude oil prices fall to USD 70/barrel, new delta is -0.5 per barrel and -500 per lot of long straddle. To remain delta neutral, the trader needs to buy five lots of CME Micro WTI futures to neutralize delta once more. This results in a profit of USD 5,000 (sell at 80 and buy back at 70 per barrel; each lot of CME Micro WTI futures represents 100 barrels). Overall position now consists of: • Long 1 x ATM call option with a strike price of USD 70, with expiry 14/June (LON24). • Long 1 x ATM put option with a strike price of USD 70, with expiry 14/June (LON24). This trade can be executed multiple times repeating the same steps as above. If crude oil trades down to being with, neutralising delta would involve buying lower and then selling higher when prices recover. SALIENT CONSIDERATIONS WHEN GAMMA SCALPING Upfront Premiums: Long straddle requires an up-front cost. Gamma scalping will need to be executed multiple times to break even and recover the premiums. Up-front premium implies fixed downside with a well-defined maximum loss. Dynamic Hedging: Gamma scalping requires continuous monitoring and adjusting of positions. Time Decay: Options should be selected with sufficiently large days-to-expiry to minimize effect of time decay. Time decay of the option rise sharply closer to expiration massively shrinking the value of the long straddle. Long Volatility: High gamma benefits from high volatility. The strategy should be utilized when volatility is expected to rise or remain high. At Expiry: The options legs may expire at a net loss and require scalping to break-even. Example payoff analysis for different settlement prices for crude oil at expiry: 1. Settles at USD 60/barrel: The put option is US 10 in-the-money and the call option is worthless. Options P&L = USD (10 – (6+6)) x 1000 = Loss of USD 2000. Gamma scalping must have generated more than USD 2,000 to offset this potential loss. 2. Settles at USD 75/barrel: The call option expires worthless and the put option is USD 5 in-the-money. Loss of USD 7,000. Gamma scalping must generate at least USD 7,000 to break-even. 3. Settles at USD 70/barrel: The call and the put option both expire worthless; the entire up-front premium of USD 12,000 results in a loss. To break-even gamma scalping must generate at least USD 12,000. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CL1!
by mintdotfinance
💡 $357 profit with 72% PoP STRANGLE - #1 trade in my challangeTrade Overview: Initiated my first options trade for the annual challenge on January 2nd with an IWM strangle. Observing high IVR in the index, I capitalized on the recent VIX spike to enter the 45DTE 212/188 strangle for 3.57cr. Trade Management: Rolling Strategy: Will roll legs as needed before expiration if price diverges. Loss Management: With a FWB:12K account, I'm capping floating loss at $200. Closing Strategy: Targeting to close around 21DTE. Trade Details: Symbol: IWM Option Type: Strangle 45DTE Entry Date: January 2, 2024 Entry Price: 3.57cr Required BP: $1681 Max Profit: $357 (20% of capital) PoP: 72% Positions: IWM Feb 16, 2024 212.00 CALL - Sell | Price: 1.76 | Qty: 1 | R. PnL: 0 | Commission: 1.251 | Fees: 0 IWM Feb 16, 2024 188.00 PUT - Sell | Price: 1.81 | Qty: 1 | R. PnL: 0 | Commission: 1.2511 | Fees: 0 Key Metrics: Tasty IVR: 42 (High) Breakevens: 184/215
AMEX:IWM
by TanukiTrade
UROY Uranium finance lease mining play LONGUROY does royalties foe uranium mining ore to refined et cetera. On the 60 minute chart, it has been on fire this week picking up 30% in market cap showing explosive volumes at 5X and sustained. The past two days have been rest and recuperation in consolidation. The zero-lag MACD suggests there is more upside in the near term with a line cross under a histogram rising from zero. The advanced RSI indicator shows a relative strength pullback from 80ish to about 65 and surprisingly the linear regression lines suggest an oversold state at present. I will take a long position here which may be risky at nearly 2 standard deviations above a rising mean VWAP and extended from the POC line of the volume profile but the supertrend indicator is showing a stepped rise and that is good enough for me. I have a new position in UEC a penny energy stock in the uranium subsector.
NASDAQ:UROYLong
by AwesomeAvani
5
ABT Abbott Laboratories Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the regional top on ABT: Nor reentered this fantastic dip: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ABT Abbott Laboratories prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 115usd strike price at the money Calls with an expiration date of 2024-2-16, for a premium of approximately $2.26. The chart is overextended and the RSI overbought, but I think there is one more leg to go before a correction. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NYSE:ABTLong
by TopgOptions
1