SPY is now BULLISH?| Geopolitical Events | 1h, D, 1W ChartIntroduction
Things are looking spooky after the constant rise of bond prices, with the 10-year yield hitting 5% this week, the highest level since 2007. We'll go over how these important patterns are playing out all over again. This is without a doubt a very scary time for the stock market, with rumors of a recession from earlier this year. Should we be worried? As we talked about last week, NYSE:LMT was a ticker we were observing as the Israel and Palestine conflict continued to see how it would affect prices, now we are looking at how the overall stock market is affected. Let's dive in.
*For a quick overview, please reach the end of the page for the analysis conclusion.
AMEX:SPY 1H Chart (Inverted)
FRVP: Oooo just look at how the Elliot wave hit the line perfectly on the FRVP, we're going to keep an eye out on any important volume areas and see where things consolidate and stay in place, which is what I'm predicting coming the next few weeks, for things to be horizontal. Usually in these areas, we see that they can play as a level of resistance so we'll see.
Elliot Waves: I believe we are now on an upward trajectory, after the (12345) we should of course according to Elliot wave theory, follow up with an (ABC). We can see when we bring indicators into the mix how this may be a likely scenario, but of course, there are still many other scenarios to consider., this is as close as I can get to predicting what happens next.
Fib Retracement: The retracement is there to see the likely spot of the (B) wave, this is just an estimate and may not hit perfectly but it's there just in case.
MACD: We are now showing bullish divergence on the MACD which is what we want to see in this case if we want the Elliot wave to play out.
RSI: After hitting oversold in September, then again later in October, there is a very high chance for upside in the market , especially after a long while of bearish behavior. Not only all that but we have just broken through the 60.00 level, which shows that we may be in a bullish move now. If you are wondering why I wrote still oversold it’s because at the time of making the chart I did not expect it to hit the 60.00 level just yet.
AMEX:SPY D Chart
Fib Retracement: AMEX:SPY Struggles to continue higher through retracement levels, although hope should not be lost, we are now entering what seems to be a consolidation period before either a big move down or big move up , all depends how everyone is feeling about the stock market, fed, bonds, inflation, etc. As long as 0.5 plays as some sort of support, we should be in a bull market
Moving Average: 200 D is just there to see historic price action and levels of support/ resistance, not much information I gathered on it, it's just there.
MACD: Looks like we're nearing the end of this short, no cross as of yet.
Stock RSI: You see it, we have a cross yet nothing to be excited about still have time for things to play out.
FRVP: Wow who could have guessed, the FRVP plays a support level. Let's see what happens in the coming days.
Elliot Waves: Do you spot the pattern? I sure do. We see similar historic behavior fold before our eyes. Back in 2021, we had a full Elliot wave pattern play out the same way it's doing now, but only smaller. Will this play out? From our indicators and trend analysis it seems likely.
RSI: Not sure about the Elliot waves? It's okay that's fair, tell you what, I put a possible play that could happen in the RSI that could help us see if this will play out appropriately.
AMEX:SPY 1W Chart
*Put the TVC:DXY to show how history has played out between the US dollar and stock market, obviously they are inverse of each other.
Conclusion
We are in a difficult situation with bonds, inflation, oil prices, and other worldly factors that can impact the market. But I have faith that we are just in a fear phase and it will soon pass. This is what I call a buy opportunity.
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