06/02 Weekly GEX Analysis - 6000 Looks EasyThe biggest event last week was undoubtedly the court ruling involving Trump. The market responded with optimism, and on Thursday premarket, SPX surged toward the 6000 level — only to get instantly rejected. That strong rejection suggests this is a firm resistance zone.
From the GEX expiry matrix, it's clear that the market is hedging upward for this week, but downward for next week. To me, this indicates that while the near-term GEX sentiment remains slightly bullish, the market may be preparing for a pullback or retest in the medium term.
This week, SPX has already entered a GEX zone surrounded by positive strikes — up to around the 6000 level. That makes 6000 an “easy target” for bulls, and we’ll likely see profit-taking here, just like we did last Thursday premarket.
⚠️ However, if we look more closely at the weekly net open interest:
...we can see a strong bullish net OI build-up starting to emerge around the 6100 level — a price zone that currently feels distant and even unreachable. But if the 6000 resistance breaks, we could see a fast gamma-driven squeeze up to 6050 and possibly 6100 before the next wave of profit-taking kicks in.
As is often the case during bullish moves, the market seems blind to the bigger picture — no one’s looking down, only up. The mood is greedy, and momentum favors the bulls... for now.
Never underestimate FOMO — but also never underestimate Trump. He’s unlikely to accept the court’s decision on tariffs quietly. Any new negative headline could shake the market, no matter where price is sitting…
Optionstrading
Carvana Leading Auto Retail – Outpacing LAD & AN-Financial Performance & Momentum:
Carvana reported a record-breaking adjusted EBITDA of $488M in Q1 2025, up $253M YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 11.5% (+3.8pp YoY). The company's strong operational efficiency positions it as a leader in the auto retail industry, nearly doubling the margins of competitors like Lithia Motors (LAD) and AutoNation (AN).
- Competitive Positioning & Growth Outlook:
Carvana’s EBITDA quality is superior due to lower non-cash expenses, enhancing long-term sustainability. The company expects sequential EBITDA growth in Q2 and targets 13.5% EBITDA margins within 5-10 years.
-Peer Comparison:
- Lithia Motors (LAD): EBITDA margin at 4.4% (up from 4% YoY), facing tariff-related headwinds that could impact pricing and demand.
- AutoNation (AN): SG&A as a percentage of gross profit rose to 67.5% in Q1, expected to stay between 66-67% in FY 2025, pressuring margins further.
-Options Flow & Institutional Activity - Key Levels: $350/$370
Recent institutional flow activity indicates strong positioning around $350/$370 strikes, potentially signaling a vertical spread in play rather than outright selling:
1️⃣ Momentum Confirmation:
- CVNA has strong upside momentum following its Q1 results, reinforcing a bullish outlook for near-term price action.
- Institutional traders may be accumulating bullish vertical spreads rather than unwinding positions.
Vertical Spread Setup ($350/$370 Strikes)
- Long Call ($350 Strike) → Signals expectations for further upside.
- Short Call ($370 Strike) → Caps max profit while reducing cost.
- Breakeven Price: $359 → CVNA must close above $359 for profitability.
Profit & Risk Zones
- Above $370: Maximum profit achieved.
- Between $359-$370: Partial profit zone (spread remains in play).
- Below $359: Spread loses value, making recovery dependent on extended upside momentum.
RBRK Rubrik Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RBRK Rubrik prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $5.60.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
INTEL INTC Short setup target 15.29Fibonacci technical analysis : Intel Corporation NASDAQ:INTC has already found resistance at the Fib level 61.8% (23.07) of my Down Fib. The May 30th Daily candle has closed below retracement Fib level 23.6% (19.73), confirming a sell signal. A Bear Flag pattern has also formed. My Down Fib guides me to look for NASDAQ:INTC to eventually go down to hit first target at Fib level -27.2% (15.29).
NASDAQ:INTC – Target 1 at -27.2% (15.29), Target 2 at -61.8% (12.26) and Target 3 at -78.6 (10.79)
Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (22.04).
Enjoy the trading process and take time to smell the roses🌹
[05/27] Weekly GEX Outlook for SPX⚠️ Unbalanced GEX & Institutional Hedging – A Closer Look
I haven’t seen such an asymmetric GEX setup in quite a while — and it’s definitely not a pretty one 😬. The current profile suggests a highly skewed positioning in the market:
📍 Massive upside expectation:
It feels like the market is almost exclusively preparing for a move toward 6000.
🛑 Limited downside protection:
Below the current level, there's very little hedging in place — especially unusual with Friday’s expiry approaching.
🔻 Current Key Zone: 5925-5930
The largest put open interest is sitting right around 5925, which is also close to spot.
Below that? Things get murky. The GEX profile becomes fragmented and mixed, with no clear put support until much lower.
Interestingly, most of the current downside hedging is clustered around the 5900–5925 range, which includes ITM puts — not OTM, as you’d typically expect from retail.
🧠 Institutional Footprint vs. Retail
This hedging pattern — closer to ATM rather than deep OTM — suggests institutional players are managing downside risk with precision.
In contrast, retail traders don’t seem to be actively hedging the downside with OTM puts, which is a notable shift from typical behavior in high-IV weeks like this.
🔼 What to Watch: The 5930 Breakout
If SPX can break and hold above 5930, it enters a clear, call-dominated zone.
From there, the path to 6000 looks much cleaner, with lighter resistance and the potential for a gamma-driven push 📈.
The details show the same picture when examining more details:
SPX conclusion
😬 In short: we’re at a tipping point.
Below 5900, hedging is tactical and institutional.
Above 5900, the path is open to 6000 — but only if bulls can take control at 5930!
NVDA GEX Earnings Outlook by OptionsNVDA reports earnings this Wednesday, and it’s a big deal. A major move could impact both the indexes and broader tech sector.
The OTM 16 delta curve essentially overlaps with both the GEX profile and the expected probability zone — signaling strong confluence.
📈 Rising IV with falling call skew: Volatility is rising into earnings, while the call skew is dropping — a sign of growing interest in downside hedging/speculation.
🔷 Key inflection zone (129): Above 129, the market is unlikely to surprise. Below it, however, a domino effect could trigger increased volatility and put-side flows.
Implied move into earnings is 6.62%, reflecting binary risk expectations from the options market.
Strong gamma squeeze territory exists between 140–145, with significant call wall buildup around 140.
The nearest expiry shows a positive net GEX — supporting short-term mean-reversion or hedging flow stability above 129, at least until the earnings print.
🔴 Downside risk scenario:
In the event of a downward move, the market is most heavily hedged around the 125 level, which aligns with the deepest put support.
💡 Wheeling Opportunity Idea
ONLY IF you want to own NVDA long-term around the $130 level (even if it drops short/mid-term), this might be a great time to start the wheeling strategy.
Because earnings inflate volatility, you can sell a near-term cash-secured put (CSP) for solid premium — even on a 53DTE (July) option.
Based on current GEX levels, we’re seeing:
-Support (squeeze zone) around $125
-Call resistance around $140
-A potential upside squeeze extending to $145-$150
These align roughly with ~20 delta OTM options, so the premium is attractive.
How would I personally start this:
Sell a CSP for May 30 with the intention to get assigned if NVDA drops.
If I do get assigned, I’m happy to own shares.
Then, I sell a 60DTE covered call right after to collect another round of premium.
If I’m not assigned, I sell a new 45–60DTE put the following week — still benefiting from the relatively high IV.
👉 Remember: High IV = synthetic time value. With this two-step method, you can harvest premium twice in quick succession.
I used the same technique with NASDAQ:INTC , and it’s been performing well.
💥 ONLY IF you want to own NVDA long-term around the $130 level (even if it drops short/mid-term)!
ZS Zscaler Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on ZS:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ZS Zscaler prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 250usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2026-1-16,
for a premium of approximately $29.30.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Personal Trade Plan – Nifty50 25100 June Call OptionToday, I entered a long position in the Nifty50 25100 June (Monthly) Call option , securing an average price of ₹469.10 . I plan to accumulate additional lots at lower prices, with a strategy to hold until expiry.
📌 Disclaimer: This is not a trade recommendation. Please conduct independent research and assess risk factors before making any trading decisions.
#nifty50
ES1! (S&P500 Mini Futures) - Support Trendline Price Test -DailyES1! (S&P500 Mini Futures) price is currently testing a support trendline around $5900.
If several daily Price candles close below $5865 this month, a pullback in the price can occur (rising wedge pattern).
Volume has been decreasing in May 2025, compared to March and April.
Finance and Technology corporate earnings season has passed. The U.S. government 90-day tariff pause is set to expire in early July (pending trade deal negotiations with other countries).
Tariff and trade deal news, breaking news, corporate earnings, government law changes, consumer sentiment, inflation data, the FOMC, and presidential announcements can all affect the prices of stocks and ETFs.
[𝟬𝟱/𝟭𝟮] 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗦𝗣𝗫 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸🔍 IF/THEN QUICK GAMMA PLAYBOOK
IF > 5825 THEN path to 5900 → stall/profit-taking likely
IF > 5900 THEN path to first 5950, then 6000 → gamma squeeze extension zone
IF < 5825 THEN path to 5700 → test of transition zone support
Chop Zone: — re-entry = short-term balance/testing zone
IF < 5700 THEN path to 5500 → gamma flush / dealer unwind risk
🧭 𝗘𝗫𝗧𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗘𝗗 𝗭𝗢𝗡𝗘 𝗠𝗔𝗣/b]
✅ Gamma Flip Level
5700 → This is the confirmed Gamma Flip level = High Volatility Zone = HVL. We are comfortably above it, confirming positive gamma environment.
🧱 Major Call Walls / Resistance to upside from here
5900 → Significant call resistance zone (highlighted across GEX, profile, and /matrix command). 5825–5900 = Current rally zone → expected stall at 5900 (Profit-taking zone)5950 → Next mid-large positive gamma wall to the upside, mid-station between mounts. Dealers short gamma, adding fuel to breakout.6000 → Positive Gamma squeeze continuation target. Gamma squeeze intensifies → likely extends to 6000.🟦 Transition / Chop Zone
5700–5825 → Previous chop range. Retrace could test this before renewed upside.Currently outside and breaking up from this zone, indicating trend initiation.
Balance zone from prior structure.
Expect fade setups if price dips back in.
Needs catalyst or strong sell flow to re-enter meaningfully.
🛡️ Major Put Supports to the downside
5700 → = HVL, also aligned with pTrans and Put support.Dealer unwind risk, downside opens.5500 → Key level if the 5700 zone fails — “total denial zone” of current FOMO.
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This week’s SPX setup remains decisively bullish from a gamma perspective. The GEX profile shows strong positive gamma, with institutional and dealer hedging flows firmly positioned to support continued upside—especially into Friday’s OPEX. The environment is ideal for a controlled melt-up: volatility is softening, implied volatility is trending lower, and there’s no sign of panic in the options market.
Put pricing skew is also declining, which suggests reduced fear and a shift toward more aggressive call buying—another sign of bullish sentiment. Dealer positioning implies that any upward momentum is likely to be chased and hedged into, reinforcing the trend.
However, traders should stay alert: if SPX slips back below 5825, we may see a pause or retracement back into the 5700–5825 transition zone. Only a decisive break below 5700 would flip the gamma regime back to negative and open the door to real downside volatility.
$TTD Breakout After Earnings | Gapped Up w/ Volume Surge📊 Summary for TradingView Post:
NASDAQ:TTD exploded +11% post-earnings, gapping above key resistance and closing strong with massive volume.
Price cleared multiple supply zones with conviction, now sitting above $79 with eyes on $82.74 and $86.43.
Buyers showed up heavy. This is no random push—structure confirms strength.
Still bullish unless it fills the gap below. Watching for continuation or controlled retest.
05/05 SPX Weekly Playbook - GEX Zone Outlook🔮 What-If Scenarios for This Week – Based on GEX Structure until Firday
Last week’s market momentum pushed the S&P 500 up by almost 3%, effectively erasing the price gap left behind on Liberation Day. The index also strung together nine straight days of gains—something we haven’t seen since late 2004.
Meanwhile, implied volatility dropped significantly, with the VIX touching its lowest level since the holiday, falling to around 22.5.
Several factors seem to have fueled this bullish tone, including a more measured approach from Trump on trade policies and strong quarterly results from major tech names like Microsoft and Meta.
Still, the nature of the buying raises questions—was this a thoughtful rotation, or just a broad sweep of optimism?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
🔄 Chop Zone: 5650 – 5670 (wide transition zone)
🔹 Gamma Flip: 5615
🔺 Key Call Wall: 5725 (5800 potential shift)
🔻 Key Put Wall: 5500 (5400 major support below)
🔼 Upside Path
IF > 5670 → transition cleared →
➡️ 5700 stall / reaction
IF > 5725 → call wall breached →
➡️ Path to 5750 / 5775 → stall at 5800 (largest net call OI)
IF > 5800 → gamma resistance breaks down →
➡️ 5825/5850 zone opens up
🔽 Downside Path
IF < 5615 → gamma flip triggered →
➡️ 5500 = battle zone (massive put wall + high negative GEX)
IF < 5500 → negative gamma squeeze likely →
➡️ Stall zone: 5450 → flush to 5400
IF < 5400 → high-volatility regime →
➡️ Possible acceleration to 5375 / 5340 depending on IV spike
⚖️ Neutral Setup
IF 5650–5670 holds → dealer hedging = balanced →
➡️ Ideal for non-directional spreads / theta plays
➡️ Wait for breakout confirmation above 5670 or below 5615
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
🔍 Final Thoughts
We’ve seen a sharp rally since the Trump trade war scare, with barely any meaningful pullback. The market appears to be looking for one—as a breath. Based on current GEX positioning, there’s significantly more downside hedging than upside, especially in the mid-term May expirations.
That doesn’t necessarily mean we crash—but it does mean that moves lower can accelerate faster, while upward breakouts may require more energy or time. In this environment, consider:
Bearish or neutral spreads (put debit spreads, call credit spreads)
Volatility-based strategies
Avoiding naked upside trades unless we see a strong reclaim of 5725+
Stay safe and adapt—GEX doesn’t tell direction, but it does tell where the fire might start, beacuse of reflexting to hedging activity.
COFORGE 8100 CE – 29 MAY EXPIntraday to Short-Term Trade Setup (15min/1H)
🟢 Bullish Breakout | Volume Surge Confirmed
🛒 Entry Zone (Buy Above): ₹258–260
🔑 Confirmation on 15min candle close above ₹260 with volume
🎯 Targets:
T1: ₹276
T2: ₹306.50
T3: ₹353.90 (if momentum continues into next session)
🛑 Stop Loss:
SL: ₹230 (on candle close basis for 15min TF)
Conservative SL: ₹240 (if tighter risk appetite)
📊 Indicators Signal:
✅ 9 EMA crossed 26 EMA (momentum confirmation)
✅ RSI at 76.79 – strong, but watch for pullback
✅ BB %B at 0.89 – breakout zone
✅ Clean breakout above resistance (~₹230) with volume spike
✅ Pivot & resistance flip visible on both 15min & 1H TF
For Education Purposes Only
24000PE Nifty Intraday Analysis for May 12, 202524000PE Outlook:
The 24000PE is currently in the sell zone. As I maintain a bearish view on Nifty for tomorrow, I will wait for a buy confirmation on the 24000PE before considering any entry.
Based on my analysis (excluding gap considerations), I estimate the support zone around 141 and resistance near 451. However, please note that these zones may shift if price action begins to factor in gap areas on either side.
Disclaimer: This is my personal view and not a trading recommendation. All traders are advised to conduct their own technical analysis and trade with strict stop-loss and risk management.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis – Is a Pullback Coming Soon?BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is currently trading within a clearly defined ascending channel, with price action now testing the upper boundary. This level may act as a dynamic resistance, and rejection here could trigger a corrective move towards the $98,000 support zone.
If buyers defend this support level, the bullish structure remains intact, with potential to move back toward higher levels. However, if price breaks below this zone, there will be little to stop it from falling further.
Monitoring candlestick patterns and volume at this key area is essential to identify potential buying opportunities. Risk should be managed properly—always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
If you have any thoughts on this setup or additional insights, feel free to share them in the comments!
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Testing Key Resistance Levels - Weekly ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) is currently attempting an uptrend rally, bouncing up from the April 7th 2025 support level ($488) and weekly support trendline.
The current resistance price level is $569 above, and the support price level below is $555.
SPY price needs to remain and close above $522 in May 2025 to maintain the current uptrend rally.
Resistance price targets above: $569, $578, $600, $610.
Support price targets below: $555, $542, $533, $512.
Tariff and trade deal news, corporate earnings, government law changes, and consumer sentiment will continue to affect the stock price action of SPY.
Support price levels need to hold for an uptrend to continue in 2025.
Tag ‘n Turn → Bear Mode EngagedV-Shape Reversal Confirms Short Bias
You ever see a setup pull a fakeout, tease a breakout, then pivot perfectly back into your system?
That was yesterday.
The Tag ‘n Turn gave us another clean swing exit off the upper Bollinger Band, and while I was ready to defer the next entry, a tidy little V-shaped reversal handed us the confirmation we needed. We’re back bearish. Levels are set. Now we let the market do its thing.
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SPX Market View
Let’s unpack the sequence.
Price ran up into the upper Bollinger Band and triggered the final legs of our overnight swings. That was the cash-out point – system clean, profits booked.
But I wasn’t diving into the next setup just yet.
Why?
Because it looked like the start of a Bollinger breakout – the kind that breaks the pinch and rips higher. So I paused. Waited.
Then came the V-shaped reversal – clear as day within 2 hours.
Entry happened late in the day, around the same level the mechanical Tag ‘n Turn would have fired. No edge lost. Just added confirmation.
Now? The system is officially bearish again, with a firm rejection at highs and a sharp drive lower that flipped the tone of the day and the bias on the chart.
Today’s key levels:
5620 = GEX flip zone
Also where we bounced up post-FOMC
5680 = resistance zone – could mark today’s top
We’re back in the pre-FOMC chop zone.
The plan:
Bearish until price tells us otherwise
Hedge levels marked
No chase
Wait for price to hit our zone
Let the system print
Expert Insights:
Jumping the gun on reversals – wait for structure, not assumptions.
Chasing breakouts too early – pinch points often fake before they break.
Skipping levels – 5620 and 5680 matter. Mark them or risk regret.
Overmanaging overnight trades – exits were planned. Trust the system.
Forcing direction changes – confirmation > prediction. The system knows.
Satirical cartoon showing confirmation over prediction.
Rumour Has It…
Word is the SPX reversal was caused by a rogue intern at the Fed who mistook the breakout chart for a bowl of ramen and tried to stir it with a mouse. After rebooting TradingView, they accidentally submitted a bearish policy note to Bloomberg. The market reversed out of pure confusion.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
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Fun Fact
The term “V-shaped reversal” originated in early floor trading days when chalkboard analysts would literally sketch a V on the board as a real-time note to floor brokers. That visual shorthand became one of the most recognized intraday patterns in trading – a pattern that still works in a world of tickers, bots, and zero-DTE.
BANKNIFTY 52700 PE (29 May 2025 Expiry) – Intraday Options Type: Intraday | Put Option (PE)
Strike: 52700
CMP: ₹635.00Recommended Buy Range: ₹626.00 – ₹631.00
Target Achieved: ₹730.00 ✅
Stop Loss: ₹570.00
Profit Booked: ₹94.35 / +18.45% 🟢
⏱️ Timeframes: 15min & 1H
This was a quick momentum scalp based on:
🔻 Weakness in BankNifty index with rejection near key resistances
📉 Bearish candles on 15min + volume confirmation
🔄 Entry near VWAP zone, breakout of structure support
For Education Purposes Only
WULF TeraWulf Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought WULF before the rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WULF TeraWulf prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 2usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2026-1-16,
for a premium of approximately $0.43.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
04/28 Weekly GEX AnalysisDETAILED IMAGE:
Here’s what the charts and indicators are showing right now until Friday.
We are approaching a key breakout zone.
🐂 🟢 IF the market breaks above the white bearish daily trendline, the next bullish target could be between 5515–5680.
🟦 ⚖️ The chop area is between 5435–5515.
Expect more back-and-forth moves here if the breakout fails.
🐻🔴 Watch out: if the price drops below 5435 or 5425, there’s little support left.
This could trigger a sharp sell-off ("Bearish Armageddon" scenario).
GEX profiles remain positive 🟢 across all near expirations — for now — suggesting that underlying support still exists, but we need to monitor any changes closely.
IVRank is still relatively high (30.9), meaning options are priced with a decent amount of implied volatility.
🟢Short-term sentiment is currently bullish, with some speculative activity picking up.
This suggests that traders are expecting less volatility over the next month compared to what we saw in the past week.
However, if we look at institutional positions focused on longer-term expirations (especially beyond 30 days on SPX/AM maturities), the picture remains bearish 🔴 or at least highly volatile.
These players are still strongly hedging against downside risks.
This confirms the broader point:
Even though price action managed to recover to pre-tariff-announcement levels — with very low trading volume — we’re not out of the woods yet.
Until we can break and hold above the key resistance bearish trend with HIGH BUY VOLUME (aka. momentum), we shouldn't expect a strong, stable GEX profile across all expirations like we had in the past.