Finally?I bought some puts as shown. Looks like the price is testing the broken support. Is not an important support, but the puts are cheap and it is worth the shot.
Optionstrading
BA after earnings pop. Will it drop?Boeing had a big pop from very favorable earnings today. So far there has
not been a fade or retracement. The relative strength lines however topped
out and then retreated a bit signaling bearish divergence with the lower TF
below the higher black TF line. Likewise,
the MACD indicator is showing a line cross above the histogram whose
amplitude has dropped to zero then changed to red / negative.
Lastly, the mass index indicator shows a rise above the reversal zone
then with a trigger signal in dropping below the zone.
I conclude that BA over-extended and is now setup for a short trade which
could be either stocks or a put option. For the stock the stop loss is 232
the swing high and the target is 223.25 at the mean VWAP line. If price can
cross under that line, the target for the remaining runners will be 217 just
above a lower VWAP line. I will buy the strike $225 expiring 8/4 to potentially
exploit this expected quick retracement.
Calls idea - at important supportI'm taking same risk here. No buying signal yet but price is landing on an important support since dic 2022. Just a few calls, I don't want to risk much, If I see a buying signal I'll buy more. I think eventually price is going to break out the triangle. You can also buy a small amount and place your SL at $36.
GOOG Post earning Analysis|25th July 23I am pretty confident about price hitting $136 and then $138. Make sure to understand price action in depth.
Macys ( M ) Pre-earnings LongAs can be seen on the 2H chart, Macy's last earnings on June 5th was afavorble beat
resulting in first an uptrend and then a sideways price movement for a month and
a half. Earnings are expected on 8/22/23. Price has had dynamic support at the mean VWAP
anchored in April while the dynamic resistance has been two standard deviations above that
represented by the thin red line. Price is currently midway between resistance and support.
Additional support is the POC line ( with the highest trading volumes ) of the volume profile
beginning at the prior earnings date. Overall I see this as an opportunity to take an options
trade with an expiration a couple of weeks after expected earnings to strike the thin red line
of dynamic resistance at 17 expiring September 1st. Depending on price action in the days
leading up to earnings I may take off half the contracts if they are in decent profit while
letting the other half run through the post earnings period figuring that M could repeat
and jump after earnings.
Puts tradeBought puts. Is a little risky bc it can break up. But I like this stock options, are very liquid and there are not expensive.
Calls ideaBought some calls here. I think is a little tight. I should have given them one more week. Hope it plays put.
VZ Verizon Communications Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold VZ here:
Then analyzing the options chain and chart patterns of VZ Verizon Communications prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 31usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $1.08.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NEM Newmont Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of NEM Newmont Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 42.5usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 9/15/2023,
for a premium of approximately $1.11.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
GLD is the high volume EFT that is tracking the gold bullrun which started two weeks ago on July 3rd after
a downtrend for two months starting on May 2nd. This is not a leveraged ETF
as so a bit less volatile than JNUG or GDXU. On the 2H chart, I have added a
VWAP band line setup anchored into the pivot high.
On my analysis:
1. GLD is ascending through VWAP band lines in a VWAP breakout.
2. Volume is steady
3. The Price Volume Trend Oscillator went from a diminishing negative/red histogram
into green on July 5th.
4. On the zero-lag MACD, the lines crossed while under the histogram reversing a descent on July 17th and marking the end of a minor correction of the uptrend then confirmed by those
lines crossing the zero-line the following day.
I conclude that GLD is set up for a long trade. While others might simply take a trade of
stocks I will use call options to take a long position. My target is $190 between the
second and third positive standard deviations of the mean VWAP. I will purchase 50
options contracts for about $37 each expiring August 4th. I will hold all of them until
July 27th and liquidate half of them at the high of day on that Thursday expecting
Friday to be a down day. The remaining 25 contracts will be sold at the rate of
6 contracts per day until the overall position is closed. Overall, I expect to realize
200% in profits over the 12-13 trading days in the trade. I plan for a 15% stop loss and
expect the trade to be above break-even with the first stop loss advance which I expect
will be on Friday.
Current state of play for BTCCurrent state of play for BTC
Bitcoin, and the crypto markets overall, have seen a marked strike of volatility which resulted in a new yearly high being made of $31,5000 USD before price then fell away back down to $30,250 USD at the time of writing.
What can we gain from this price action? The simple fact that there have been more supply and sellers at these price highs than there has been conviction to continue biding at higher prices.
----
What else could be moving markets overnight?
A key metric that may be driving some of this volatility is the options market. The 7th of July is also the largest total value of options expiring until the 28th of July.
metrics.deribit.com
Option expiry is historically known to cause markets to move as these contracts are settled. Max pain for this contract date is also $30,000USD - so it will be interesting to see if price settles at price range after the contracts settle. (Click here to learn about max pain)
----
Where to next
These are the bullish and bearish scenarios to be watching. A clean higher time frame (Hourly or greater) close beyond these range highs or lows will be telling in the bears or bulls are in control.
Currently we are in the middle of it all.
GS Pre Earnings LONGGoldman Sachs pivoted from a low on July 11th into a trend up until July 14th during
which it pulled back. Since earnings are on July 19th, I see room now for a pre-earnings
long entry. The MTF RSI indicator shows the lower TF RSI in blue reflecting the pullback
while the higher TF RSI in black shows the longer trend up with the RSI holding support at
50. The zero-lag MACD shows a line cross under a slightly positive histogram suggesting the
pullback will reverse to continuation. Overall, I see GS as being suitable for long entries
which I will take as call options. I will zoom into the 5 or 15 minute chart and look for a
pivot low as the ideal entry. I will set a stop loss of 10% while taking one contract as
a strike $330 expiring July 21st and another $330 expiring July 28th. I have picked targets
based on the upper standard deviations of the VWAP bands anchored back to the pivot
low on July 11th. Overall, I am expecting a 100% ROI on the two contracts.
Calls trade, extremely riskyI just bought some calls exp. tomorrow, strike 190. I hope it breaks out tomorrow. Other big caps already broke out. Let's see how it goes.
NVDA - MyMI Option Plays - CallsNVDA has outperformed outperformance in it's definition. This Titan has broken into a higher price range channel (top level of the orange channels) and is showing the potential to be headed back to $500. The most recent breakout in this week's trading sessions shows that there is still money on the sideline waiting to be injected in the markets and that we have much higher to go.
This has taken us bullish in all of our current open trades. We are not currently in NVDA but we are patiently awaiting a re-entry that's a little more favorable for a longer-term call option and share hold.
KO - a Warren Buffet Fav setup long from bottom of cycleKO as a long standing Buffet holding- is a slow mover with a decent dividend. For stock and
options traders like myself, it is now well positioned for a long trade. KO's recent pivot
highs were early to mid May with the highest trading volume at $64 according to the interval
volume profile. KO descended mid-May into June 1st and then had a Fib. retracement and
reversal. On the 4H chart, KO price is now at the bottom of the high volume area of the overall
while the RSI / MTF ( Chris Moody) shows relative strengths in the range of 25.
I see this as a classical opportunity to buy low and sell high. Trade specifics are a stop loss
of 59.30 and targets based on anchored VWAP lines of 61 (25% off) 62.5 (50%) and
63.75 (25%). As a low-risk trade for the stop loss compared with the potential profit, I will
devote 5 % of the account to this trade. Once price hits $60.25, I will raise the stop loss to
the break-even price of the entry and the trade will become stress and risk free. I will
select an entry buy focusing down onto the 5-15 minute time frame. Profits from a low
risk trade like this will be re-deployed into others a bit riskier as a means of stratifying
risk and its managment.
FrogAlgo: What is 0DTE Option?🔔 Trading zero-day-to-expiration (0DTE) options on AMEX:SPY has both positive and negative aspects. Let's explore them 🧵:
Positive:
♻️ High Potential for Quick Profits: 0DTE options offer the opportunity for rapid gains if the underlying stock, in this case, AMEX:SPY , experiences a significant price move within a single trading session.
♻️ Reduced Time Decay: As the options approach expiration, their time value diminishes rapidly. This can work in favor of traders, as time decay accelerates, potentially increasing the profitability of the trade.
♻️ Flexibility: 0DTE options allow traders to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations in AMEX:SPY without committing to longer-term positions. This flexibility can be advantageous for those seeking quick, opportunistic trades.
Negative:
♻️ High Risk: 0DTE options carry substantial risk due to their short expiration timeframe. The price of AMEX:SPY must move significantly and in the desired direction within the trading session for the trade to be profitable. Otherwise, the options could expire worthless, resulting in a complete loss of the investment.
♻️ Increased Sensitivity to Market Volatility: 0DTE options are highly sensitive to changes in market volatility. Rapid shifts in AMEX:SPY 's price can cause dramatic swings in the option's value, amplifying both gains and losses.
♻️ Limited Time for Adjustments: With 0DTE options, there is minimal time available to react and make adjustments if the trade goes against expectations. Traders must be prepared to act quickly and decisively.
🔔 It's crucial for traders to thoroughly understand these factors and assess their risk tolerance before engaging in 0DTE option trading on AMEX:SPY or any other underlying asset.
TSLA - MyMI Option Plays - PUTsI purchased some PUTs this morning as I expect TSLA to rebound back to at least the $268s or $264s for an excellent $12-$16 Puts Catch on the Drop.
I am sharing this to track the trade!
Stay tuned for updates and for more trades, be sure to follow!
Thank you all for the support, our numbers have been pretty phenomenal and we want to show our appreciation by continuing to share our ideas with you all!
Check your bio for links to get even more connected! Use our Financial Budgeting and Investment Manager to improve your trades and follow ours even closer!
Thank you guys/gals!
LI , a Chinese EV manufacturer LONGLI has seen a 60% price rise since significantly beating the earnings estimates of the analysts.
LI competes with TSLA and NIO primarily in Chinese and perhaps a little in Scandinavia. It
does not import to North America. The 2H chart shows price rising consistently in a channel
between the first and second standard deviation lines above the mean anchored VWAP
demonstrating trend persistence and momentum. The zero-lag MACD shows a line cross
at the zero horizontal line and rising as confirmation of bullish momentum. I see $40
as a reasonable target at the level of the 3rd upper standard deviation lines. With the
next earnings report due August 21st, I will take a long trade of ten call options striking
$38.00 expiring 8/18/23. On the last trading day, this option had a low of $1.75 and
a high of $1.90 for an intraday rise of about 8%. The contracts will cost about $1900.
I am expecting about a 3% average rise compounded over 30 trading days or 250%
return on the trade.
No more coffeePrice is sitting on a strong support but also was rejected from the broken uptrend. We may say another bounce but on the other hand is very probable that price opens with a gap down soon. I just bought some puts (are very cheap now) strike $97 expire 07/14.
SPX Outlook: Week Ending Jul 14th4400 remains to be the line in the sand. With CPI on Wed, the targets below are 4375-4350. Above we can test 4440 and over that 4450-4465.
TSLA Weekly Longterm LONGTSLA is here on the weekly chart. I have added a couple of anchored VWAPs and their
standard deviations to the chart itself. The two indicators are the zerio-lag MACD which
shows upgoing lines crossing the zero horizontal line and a positive histogram. The Price Volume
Trend indicator shows a cross and consistent upgoing action since February 1, 2023. The chart
itself shows price to have crossed over the two mean VWAPs 4 weeks ago which is confirm-
atory for bullish momentum. TSLA pivoted up from the second deviation below the mean
VWAPs about February 1st. My target is $360 the present level of the second deviation lines
(red) above the mean VWAP confluent with the horizontal resistance zone of the highs
from November 2022 January 2023 and April 2023 all a triple top of sorts. I am highly
bullish on TSLA overall given its progress in autonomous driving, charging station
station infrastructure, deal making with F GM and RIVN insofar as charging standards
and cooperative ventures as well as obvious signs of growth with Cybertruck production,
and new plants in Mexico and potentially Spain and India. I have purchased ten options
striking $350 with a December 2023 expiration. I have call options expiring in August
and September. I expect to roll them out for more than a year to minimize the tax treatment
of expected significant profits.
NVDA - MyMI Option Plays - PUTsJust purchased some NVDA PUTs after it lose movement from this mornings push upward. I was seeing if it would cross that $430 Fib Retracement Level but it didn't even make it that far before showing signs of moment loss (for the moment).
So in that moment, I will be looking to snatch some profits going backward for a bit, potentially back to the $400s.
50% Retracement would show $390 but I'm being gracious with the $400 target for now.
SPX Outlook: Week ending Jul 7thOptions premium is indicating 4450-4435 is key flip point. If 4435 gives out, we could drop to 4400 and 4375 below that. Hold the 4435-4450 area and we could ramp 4500-4525 by end of the week.
