03/24 SPX Weekly GEX Outlook, Options FlowYou can see that every expiry has shifted into a stronger bullish stance heading into Friday, with GEX exposure moving upward across the board—though total net GEX is still in negative territory, while net DEX (delta exposure) is positive. This combination points toward a likely near-term rebound this week, which makes sense after testing the 5600 range last week….
Here’s a more detailed breakdown of the key zones and likely moves this week:
Bullish Target:
The current uptrend could reach 5750 on its first attempt (already reached in Monday, thx bullsh :) ). If a positive gamma squeeze emerges at that level, we might see an extension to 5800 or even 5850 as a final profit-taking zone for bulls this week.
HVL (Gamma Slip Zone):
Placed at 5680, this threshold currently supports a low-volatility environment. A drop below 5680, however, could reignite fear and fuel bearish momentum.
Put Floors & Net OI:
The largest net negative open interest (OI) cluster is at 5650, with the next key level near 5600. At 5600, net DEX reads fully positive, suggesting strong buying support if the market tests that lower boundary.
Optionstrategies
Opening (IRA): PLTR May 16th 90 Covered Call... for a 76.56 debit.
Comments: After taking off my iron condor for a loss, structuring a covered call such that the max profit potential is greater than the loss experienced by the nondirectional of 13.11.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 76.56
Max Profit: 13.44
ROC at Max: 17.55%
Will generally look to roll out the short call out and/or down and out at intervals to increase profit potential and/or reduce downside break even ... .
OUST Ouster Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of OUST Ouster prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2026-1-16,
for a premium of approximately $0.75.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Educated Gambling!! LOL. Call Options that go $POWW or OW!! Were in a Double Bottom and a Bearish Pennant on the daily so who knows, and the chart doesn't look great either. This one is at the top of my degenerate list, pure speculation. My idea is either a big bang or a misfire. I've been buying NASDAQ:POWW $2.50 calls expiring 1/17/25. Started off buying at $15 then $10 and now $5 per call. And sometimes no one is even selling these options when they list for .01 (actually cost $5 min) My thought is NASDAQ:POWW could either run in the next 3 weeks or all the way up to Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025, hope to at least fill the gap at 2.46 and then get back to June 3rd high of $2.86. Most of us can figure out why it could possibly go parabolic so close to the Election. I hope for God's sake and love of country I'm actually wrong about this and pray for peace. But at the same time, as some of the corrupt powers to be say "never let a crisis go to waste"... Safe Trading Everyone!!
HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought HPE before the previous earnings:
Noe analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-3-21,
for a premium of approximately $0.52.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
RKLB Rocket Lab USA Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought RKLB before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RKLB Rocket Lab USA prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 21.5usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-3-7,
for a premium of approximately $1.62.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
GEO The GEO Group Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t bought the dip on GEO:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GEO The GEO Group prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 26usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-4-17,
for a premium of approximately $3.10.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
RIVN Rivian Automotive Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold RIVN after the recalls:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RIVN Rivian Automotive prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 16usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-4-17,
for a premium of approximately $0.93.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
GT The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AGT The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 8usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-2-21,
for a premium of approximately $0.57.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Update: TLT March 21st 95 Covered CallsA "refresh" of a fairly long-running cash flow setup, with the cash flow emanating from (a) short call premium and (b) dividends.
As of the 12/18/24 dividend, my break even is at 85.81 (including dividends). (See Post Below).
One of my New Year's resolutions is to be a little more patient and roll out the short call on approaching worthless, targeting the short call strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit, but my mouse hand occasionally seems to have a mind of its own ... .
GOOGL Alphabet Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on GOOGL:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GOOGL Alphabet prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 200usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-2-7,
for a premium of approximately $7.20.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
META Platforms Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t bought META before the rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of META Platforms prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 660usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-2-21,
for a premium of approximately $32.20.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
CSX Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought CSX before the previous rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CSX Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 35usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $1.10.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
GS The Goldman Sachs Group Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on GS:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GS The Goldman Sachs Group prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 555usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $4.60.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 9.50usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $0.49.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
$SMCI slippy downside; $29 targetWith the rebalancing of NASDAQ, removal of NASDAQ:SMCI after it got a pump from it submitting financial reports to keep it from being delisted the big dogs realize this fraudulent company isn’t worth the risk, investment and headache. I expect below $30. Easily can be down 5% this week and that’s modest. Official date is December 23rd. I will be entering $30p for a swing. There was tons of buying at sub $20’s. There will be tons of selling here. How do people invest in a company who can’t report on time, falsify numbers, auditing team quits on them? Sometimes you don’t play the charts, you play the god damn news. Look at NYSE:UNH , look at my past post & chart. That thing got smoked. NASDAQ:MRNA is next.
WALLSTREETLOSER
Opening (IRA): SMH January 17th 130/225 Short Put Vertical... for a 3.40 credit.
Comments: Adding to my SMH position on weakness, but using a setup with a lower buying power effect (BPE).
Here, I'm selling the 25 delta put and buying the put that is at a strike that is approximately one half the value of the short put strike to bring in the buying power effect by about half over going with a naked short put. The standalone 225 would cost about 221.54 to put on versus the 91.60 in buying power for this trade, with a resulting bump in ROC as a function of BPE.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 91.60
Break Even: 221.60/share
Max Profit: 3.40
ROC at Max: 3.71% (versus 1.53% for the naked)
50% Max: 1.70
ROC at 50% Max: 1.86% (versus .77% for the naked)
Naturally, the warts on this setup is that I remain subject to assignment risk at the 225 strike, so need to keep that in mind as I put on trades, since BP will have to be free in order to accept assignment of a one lot at 225.
ASAN Asana Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought ASAN before the previous spike:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ASAN Asana prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 15usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-12-20,
for a premium of approximately $1.52.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
RH Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on RH:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RH prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 365usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-12-20,
for a premium of approximately $16.30.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Opening (IRA): TLT December 20th 88 Covered Call... for a 86.84 debit.
Comments: High IVR at 74.8% plus weakness.
Looking to grab both the November 1st and December 1st dividends here while I twiddle my thumbs waiting for the general election to pass, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 86.84
Max Profit (Excluding Dividends): 1.16
Max Profit (With Dividends): 1.80
ROC at Max Excluding Dividends: 1.34%
ROC at Max (With Dividends): 2.07%
Immediately post-fill, I put in a GTC order to take profit at .20 short of max or 87.80, but may take if off after the December dividend drops if something more "sexy" gives me that come hither look.
Opening (IRA): COIN December 20th 220/230/380/390 Iron Condor... for a 2.67 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 74.1/91.5. Going low delta with the short option legs and narrower than usual with the wings.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 2.67
Buying Power Effect: 7.33
ROC at Max: 36.4%
50% Max: 1.34
ROC at 50% Max: 18.2%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll in untested side on side test.
RKLB Rocket Lab USA Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RKLB Rocket Lab USA prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 13usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $2.30.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.