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RUSSEL ETF 20% profit play during correction with Iron Condor One of the most highest probability of trades are: neutral Iron Condors with high Implied Volatility on large indices. (SPX, DJI, RUT) The more an indice is overbougth, than better this strategy works, as the correction also results more movement into downside. Unlike other overvalued stocks, however: the indices are not collapsing. (except for 1-2 extreme cases where immediate intervention is required, eg March 2020) I'm always trading the alternative ETFs of these indices: SPY = S&P500 = ES mini futures IWM = Russel 2000 = RT mini futures DIA = DJI = YM mini futures .etc... On Friday I've opened an IWM Iron Condor, so here are my reasons: (1) RTY1! Futures Analysis The Russel mini futures at local top hit the 3 year trendline, bluffy upside trendline permanently broke. (2) Divergence with breakdown Hard daily divergence in the last few months, my smooth RSI trendline breeaks. (3) Relative high IVR Relative Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) increases. This value, if high enough (e.g., above 45), favors neutral credit strategies like Iron Condor. In the case of indices, this is particularly rare, occurring every few months. At these times you can safely open neutral strategies (wide wings), for example: Iron Condor, Strangle. (4) My Iron Condor hunter script signal My Iron Condor Hunter indicator give me an automatic signal with safe ranges. As you see: in the past almost every time indicated the safe range successfully. (I'm not counting the 2020 Marc, every regular strategy failed in that crash). (5) Safe levels are well defined in my range I'm always defining safe price levels (based on the nearest short term high/low points). In my case these levels are well defined inside the Iron Condor Hunter range: CONCLUSION: I've opened an Iron Condor on IWM (Russel ETF) Profit target: 20% Max profit: 68$ Max loss: 332$ Tasty IVR: 13 POP: 69% Expiry: 42 days Strategy: Neutral IC Buy 1 IWM April16' 185 Put Sell 1 IWM April16' 189 Put Sell 1 IWM April16' 244 Call Buy 1 IWM April16' 248 Call Stop: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below put strikes or above call strikes. Safe levels (190,205,229) are defending my borders. Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 55% of max.profit in this case. Inside the curve I'm usually in profit. If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW, and follow my fresh ideas ( @mrAnonymCrypto on tradingview ).
AMEX:IWM
by TanukiTrade
10
Old Nuggets: Defined Risk Skew AccommodationSkew. It can be a pain in the butt if you want to trade both delta neutral and probability neutral. In QQQ, a delta neutral setup at the moment would be: selling a spread on the put side with the short put leg at the 275 (17 delta) and on the call side with the short call leg at the 344 (17 delta). However, this results in a short put strike 38 strikes away from current price and a short call strike 31 strikes away. It's delta neutral, but the probability of profit on the put side is 83% and on the call side 78%, so it isn't both delta neutral and probability neutral. Ugh. Fortunately, there is a solution to obtain both a delta neutral and a probability neutral setup, and it's with a variation on the iron condor: a "double double" -- double the contracts on the call side, with the put side being double the width of the call side spread. Because the risk associated with the put side spread -- that attributable to a five wide -- is greater than the risk associated with the call side (2 x 2 or the equivalent of a four wide), the maximum risk of the setup is that of a five wide -- the widest wing of the setup. In other words, doubling up the number of contracts on the call side doesn't increase buying power effect, because it's attributable to the widest wing (i.e., 5 > 2 x 2, so buying power effect is that attributable to the five wide). Here, you can't quite go exactly double due to strike availability at the moment on the put side (there's only five wides there), but you can go five wide on the put side, and 2 times a two wide on the call (the functional equivalent of a four wide) to get both a net delta and probability neutral setup: Put Side Short Put Leg: 17 delta Put Side Probability of Profit: 83% Call Side Short Call Leg: 2 x 12 delta Call Side Probability of Profit: 82% Resulting Setup Delta: .07 Naturally, skew isn't always to the put side; it's sometimes on the call side, where we'd do the opposite to accommodate skew: double up the number of contracts on the put side (but at half the spread width of the call).
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by NaughtyPines
6
Using VXX as VIX alternative with good P/L Yesterday I've played an alternative VIX instrument. I've tired to searching good ROI or P/L rates at VIX $20 VIX support, so I've searched some alternative, but VIX related instrument. Lets see what can give us this BARCLAYS BANK VIX Short ETN (=VXX) (1) Yearly support + incoming buy volume The lowerst value of the previous year was $13. In the past month significant buy volume arrieved. Combined this two reason could lead into sidewalking or bounceback from this level. VXX is a Trust, so we see volume displayed (unlinke in the case of the VIX) (2) VIX play ROI vs VXX ROI You could see VXX like an ETN alternatative of the VIX. Same dates for big edges, and melting down between the big edges. Compared this two instument's ROI: the conclusion is obvious. VXX ROI at support $13 for April with vertical spread: 37/63 = 58% VIX ROI at support $20 for April with vertical spread: 20/80 = 25% CONCLUSION I'm buying a few call spreads for April, because the IVR not so high. I think this is a very good P/L rate with a very high probability of profit! Target: ............. 52% Max profit: ...... $111 Max loss: ......... $189 IVR: ................... 20 POP: .................. 65% Expiry: .............. 44days Strategy: long call vertical spread (average IVR) Sell 3 VXX April 16' $13 call Buy 3 VXX April 16' $12 call Stop: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below $13. Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 65% of max.profit in this case. If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW, and follow my fresh ideas ( @mrAnonymCrypto on tradingview ).
CBOE:VXXLong
by TanukiTrade
8
Rolling (IRA): TLT May 21st 148 to June 21st 145 Covered Calls... for a .92/contract credit. Notes: A continuation of my TLT covered calls. (See Post Below). With the May 21st 148's at greater than 50% max, rolled out to the June 145's. Total credits collected of 6.42/contract with the June 21st 145's currently valued at around 1.60/contract, so I've realized gains of around 4.82/contract on the call side so far this year. With a cost basis of sub-110 (the last time I acquired), I remain fine with either being called away or continuing to work covered calls. My natural preference would be for the underlying to settle so that I wasn't constantly chasing calls down the ladder, but you can't have everything.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NaughtyPines
[ X ] United States Steel Corp short call vertical spreadLazy day, lazy trade. My Iron Condor Hunter script indicated a potential iron condor for this instrument for the 12 - 23 range. Let's check for the best setup for this signal. (1) Basic TA to background check After a quick TA I judged it too risky, because it limiting the downside potential correction. The script indicated good ranges in the past 4 years, but now I'm a little bit hesitating about the downside move limit. The script shows me 12$ as secury bottom target in the next 30 days, but the lowest low may be ~10$, based the green trendline (2) Murrey Math levels -1/8 and +1/8 are used for some kind of attempt to catch a trend reversal. -1/8 is an extreme support level during a bearish trend , while +1/8 is an extreme resistance during a bullish tendency. A test of these lines indicates that the current trend is weakening. As a rule, the price doesn’t revers here and starts corrections towards 0/8 and 8/8. After that, the previous trend resumes. On the weekly perfectly fit to my Murrey Math Lines Auto +1/8 script. (3) Daily divergence Divergence on daily chart , without any more comment..... Indicated local correction. Breaked down my custom oscillator => correction validated. CONCLUSION : Modifying the strategy from the originally planned Iron Condor to Vertical Spread. Sell 1 X Apr16' 21 call Buy 1 X Apr16' 23 call Max profit: ...... $80 Max loss: ......... $120 IVR: ................... 18.3 Probability of Profit: 73% Expiry: .............. 45days Strategy: Short call vertical Risk management: I'm closing the trade immediately - if the daily bar closing outside my strikes - and I'm cutting my loss. (no matter what I'm believing)- usually I'm losing mutch less than my max profit in this case. Danger zone starts at 20.28$ Profit management: I'm sending an order at the 50% of max profit, immediately after my position opened - as usually.
NYSE:XShort
by TanukiTrade
3