💡 $357 profit with 72% PoP STRANGLE - #1 trade in my challangeTrade Overview:
Initiated my first options trade for the annual challenge on January 2nd with an IWM strangle. Observing high IVR in the index, I capitalized on the recent VIX spike to enter the 45DTE 212/188 strangle for 3.57cr.
Trade Management:
Rolling Strategy: Will roll legs as needed before expiration if price diverges.
Loss Management: With a FWB:12K account, I'm capping floating loss at $200.
Closing Strategy: Targeting to close around 21DTE.
Trade Details:
Symbol: IWM
Option Type: Strangle 45DTE
Entry Date: January 2, 2024
Entry Price: 3.57cr
Required BP: $1681
Max Profit: $357 (20% of capital)
PoP: 72%
Positions:
IWM Feb 16, 2024 212.00 CALL - Sell | Price: 1.76 | Qty: 1 | R. PnL: 0 | Commission: 1.251 | Fees: 0
IWM Feb 16, 2024 188.00 PUT - Sell | Price: 1.81 | Qty: 1 | R. PnL: 0 | Commission: 1.2511 | Fees: 0
Key Metrics:
Tasty IVR: 42 (High)
Breakevens: 184/215
Optionstrategies
FHN First Horizon Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of FHN First Horizon Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 14usd strike price at the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-16,
for a premium of approximately $0.45.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Opening (IRA): QQQ February 16t 385 Monied Covered Call... for a 378.53 debit.
Comments:
Similar to my IWM February 16th 187 Monied Covered Call Post. (See Below).
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even/Cost Basis: 378.53
Max Profit: 6.47 ($647)
ROC as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 1.71%
ROC at 50% Max: .85%
Generally, take profit at 50% max; roll short call down or down and out defensively on test.
WDFC WD-40 Company Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold WDFC prior to previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WDFC WD-40 Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 230usd strike price the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $7.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Opening: XBI Jan '25 77 Covered CallComments: This started out as an October 20th 76 short put (See Post Below) and then proceeded to crater quite massively, resulting in early, random assignment of shares. In an attempt to get my cost basis immediately within earshot of where the underlying is currently trading, I went extremely long-dated and sold the Jan '25 77 for 7.05 against my one lot, resulting in a cost basis of my original short put strike at 76 minus the 7.05 I received for the short call or 68.95 relative to today's closing price of 67.07.
The Jan '25 77 short call finished the day at around 43 delta, and -- as with all my covered calls, I'll look to roll out the short call at intervals, with an eye toward keeping the short call at or above the 30 delta and/or leaving it alone if price pops back above my break even.
Unfortunately, the position becomes somewhat "dead money" for a bit since the current next available expiries to roll to are limited to June '25, Dec '25, and Jan '26 (although I can certainly roll down intraexpiry if push comes to shove).
ASAN Asana Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on ASAN:
Then Analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ASAN Asana prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 22.50usd strike price at the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-12-8,
for a premium of approximately $1.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Option TradingOption Trading work based on a contract that gives the buyer the right to buy or sell a certain asset, at a predetermined price (strike price) within a certain time period.
A very simple task, but is there a clear technical analysis method that can provide consecutive wins?
This post is not trading advice, just a statistical hypothesis test. I will try in 100 candles, and stop if the win rate is below 70%
If you are an options trader, or are interested in learning the system I use, please follow this post.
WDAY Workday Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought WDAY ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WDAY Workday prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 230usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15,
for a premium of approximately $5.85.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
BKNG Booking Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BKNG Booking Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 2915usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-10,
for a premium of approximately $20.95.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
GOTU Gaotu Techedu Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RUM Rumble prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 3.50usd strike price in the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15,
for a premium of approximately $0.80.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SNAP Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold SNAP here:
or ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SNAP prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 11usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-17,
for a premium of approximately $0.60.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
UAA Under Armour Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UAA Under Armour prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 7usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-10,
for a premium of approximately $0.59.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
U Unity Software Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of U Unity Software prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 27usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-5-17,
for a premium of approximately $4.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
MDT Medtronic plc Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the previous dip in MDT:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MDT Medtronic plc prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 75usd strike price at the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-24,
for a premium of approximately $1.24.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
90% win rate 🚀 Unveil an easy $GLD Call Play with naked #goldHey everyone, Greg is here with a quick rundown of today’s options trading play. I entered the ring with a naked call on AMEX:GLD , aiming for that sweet spot of easy returns on a maximal Pop trade. Today’s golden ticket could net me a max profit of $118 with a probability of profit (PoP) sitting pretty at 80%, all while tying up $3000 of buying power and riding on an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 20%.
The game plan was simple: watch the market, play it cool, and have a couple of scenarios up my sleeve:
(Scenario A) If the price hikes, I'll pivot to a strangle, balancing out with a sold put to accompany my call.
(Scenario B) If it looks like easy money, I’ll lock in those gains and close out the current trade, quick and clean.
The strategy is all about simplicity, with an exit plan to bow out gracefully at about 65% of the max profit. As of today, November 5, 2023, that naked call is open and I’m in the market.
To wrap it up, here’s the play-by-play for today:
Date: November 5 , 2023
Strategy: Naked Call on AMEX:GLD
Opening Credit: $118
Expected Profit: Exiting at ~65% of max profit
Probability of Profit (PoP): 80%
Required Buying Power (Req.BP): $3000
Implied Volatility Rank (IVR): 20
Current Position Balance (as of opening): $118 of credit (1.18cr)
Stay tuned to see which scenario unfolds and how the trade’s balance shifts in the coming days. Keep it easy, folks!
Opening (IRA): SPY December 29th 405 Short Put... for a 4.22 credit.
Comments: Rounding out fourth quarter rungs ... . Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. I already have some December 15th on, so going out to the last expiry of the year here.
DVN Devon Energy Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DVN Devon Energy Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 47usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $3.25.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMGN Amgen Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t sold AMGN on the HZNP deal:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AMGN Amgen prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 262.5usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-11-17,
for a premium of approximately $8.15.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought XOM when they made "more money than God" here:
or ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 110usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-10-27,
for a premium of approximately $1.43.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
V Visa Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t sold V Visa ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of V Visa prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 230usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 22023-11-17,
for a premium of approximately $5.15.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
CSX Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CSX Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 32.50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $0.90.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
LRCX Lam Research Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LRCX Lam Research Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 650usd strike price at the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-10-20,
for a premium of approximately $20.30.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.