Short and Long Iron Condor SPY 05 May 2022We can estimate with a 86.4% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 1.75%
For this the market will stay within
TOP 436.6
BOT 421.5
At the same time We can estimate with a 86% confidence that the volatility for today is going move more than
0.33%
For this the market will stay above the
TOP 430.4
BOT 427.6
From the fundamental point of view, yesterday we had the release of the interest rates, so I believe currently
we are in a short relief moment, where we can have for some days/weeks a small bull trend
For today we have no big volatility news, so we cant expect big surprises.
Having said that we have 2 different ways of trading for today
IRON CONDOR for the first option, with the 436sell 439buy Call / 421sell 418buy Put
Reverse IRON CONDOR for the second option wiht 430buy 433sell Call/ 427buy 424sell PUT
Optiontrading
$CPB Long IdeaCPB had some sweeps and block call flows yesterday and the cart looks good IMO with a nice gap above, strength and volume uptick.
Trader went 5/6 48 calls 300K premium and 5/20 call sweeps 48/49 strike.
I like more time, so I'm long 5/20 49 calls, swinging and singing baby
Target would be gap close 48.78 but will start trimming calls on the way .
Cheers
AAPL Weekly Option Swing TradeTECHNICAL:
- Symmetrical Triangle Formation
- Wait for breakout or enter now ( higher risk )
- Double Bottom Formation
- Bullish
- MACD Cross
- RSI low
- More room for volatility
NEWS RELATED:
- Ukraine & Russia will be having a discussion (positive)
- Market may relax w/ panic selling
- War may calm down soon
THE PLAY:
- March 04 Calls
- Monthly Long Calls
- im new to charting so please critique me :)
Asianpaint 3400CE 3500CEAs of 23 February ASIANPAINT closed at 3237. If you look at the chart the stock is trading above the TRENDLINE. There is small RESISTANCE area between the price of 3262-3282.If it consolidate between the TRENDLINE and the RESISTANCE area for next 2-3 days then after that it can give a UP side momentum.
If we look at the price of March 3400CE is trading at 40 and 3500CE is trading at 21. Adding one lot each which will cost around (6000+3135) 9135. It can give more than 100% return.
STOPLOSS- If the main TRENDLINE broken exit the position
TARGET- If the spot gives a high of 3% exit the 3500CE and book profit and hold 3400 CE
DISCLAMIER-
THIS IS JUST FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE,DO CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE TAKING POSITION
WILL KEEP UPDATING.......KEEP FOLLOWING...
$EEM naked PUT, high PoP #option #trade #Trades #OptionsTrading The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is a good choice for today high IVR credit trade. High PoP, very predictable profit.
Reasons:
- high reward for Jan21 monthly expiry (mangeable with rolling) -> collecting credit
- breakeven point is far
- RSI is oversold.
Max profit: $92
Probability of 50%Profit: 84%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 14%
Req. Buy Power: $633 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 104 (very high)
Expiry: 49 days
SETUP : NAKED PUT for $EEM, because IVR is high, for 0.92cr
* Sell 1 $EEM JAN21'46 PUT
Management : ROLLING if daily candle is closing below of BE.
Take profit strategy : 50% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.46db
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
If you liked this article, check my other ideas.
Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
Never time The Market, right?When it comes to your long term portfolio, please Dollar Cost Average into the S&P 500. Which I will explain how to in detail in my next post.
However today I just want to show a small swing trading strategy theory I will try for fun. The reason I prefer the idea of swing trading is because it requires you to set your candle sticks to 4h,1d, or sometimes even 1 week. This is good because the more time range each candle stick has the more significance a simple trading pattern will have. In other words trend lines (support/resistance) will be respected.
Its very difficult to trade with the market average unless you have a significant amount of capital, and even then your better off on other investments/trades. That's what got my head on option trading; this is a high risk and high reward form of trading. You either lose it all or you make a big return (rough explanation). All this being said that's why I think the S&P 500 is the perfect environment for option trading. I believe if you call/put when the candle hits the trend line you will almost always win; and for breakouts you can wait for the re-bounce.
Please let me know what you think!
$AMD IC 40% Profit and 77% PoP #amd #trading #optionsI'm waiting for this AMD corrention....
* Big red trending candle.
* Reasonable safety S/R zones.
* Long run and now correction.
Why Iron Condor?
Let the bulls/bears to choose direction, I would like to making money in any direction!
Max profit: $286
Probability of 50%Profit: 77%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 40%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$200
Req. Buy Power: $770 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 94 (very high)
Expiry: 49 days
SETUP: IC for 1.43cr each, because IVR ultra high
* Buy 2 AMD Jan21' 110 Put
* Sell 2 AMD Jan21' 115 Put
* Sell 2 AMD Jan21' 170 Call
* Buy 2 AMD Jan21' 175 Call
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~$200.
Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.57db each.
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
If you liked this article, check my other ideas.
Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
$MRNA Trade Idea$MRNA had a really nice gap up Friday morning in premarket. Made a really nice move to the 350sh key area and consolation for the rest of the day. We also saw a ton of call flow coming in for the 380s 390s and 400s and even the 500s. Looks really good for a bounce or above 350.50.
$MRNA "Hi Alert"
Entry: 350.50
Targets: 354,360, 362.50
Stop Loss: 15%
S&P500 Iron Condor 60% profit 76% PoP50, high IVR for #optionsI just can't resist the very high IVR for large ETFs, like SPY.
My most common strategies these at corrections are the Iron Condors, neutral or negative delta.
SAFETY ZONES: 200MA could act as support, ATH could act as resistance.
Max profit: $375
Probability of 50%Profit: 76%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 60%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$150
Req. Buy Power: $625 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 49 (ultra high for S&P500)
Expiry: 56 days
SETUP : IC for , because IVR ultra high, for 3.75cr
* Sell 1 SPY Jan21' 420 Put
* Buy 1 SPY Jan21' 430 Put
* Buy 1 SPY Jan21' 480 Call
* Sell 1 SPY Jan21' 490 Call
SETUP: IC for SPY, because IVR ultra high.
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~150$.
Take profit strategy: 50% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 1.88db.
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
If you liked this article, check my other ideas.
Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
$NVDA Trade Idea $NVDA has been really good to me the last few weeks and is still very strong. Had a good run with lots of call flow still coming in. Will be watching to take this back to that 327 level.
Entry: 309
Targets: 317, 323, then re-enter on the break of 327.
Contract: 11/19 320c
Stop Loss: 15%
$TTD Trade Idea (High Alert)Watching $TTD over ATH. Also looking at a red to green or bounce. Had a ton of flow coming in on Cheddar Flow last week and is still very strong especially if we can get an aggressive market to the upside.
Entry: Red to Green, Bounce, or over 100.50
Targets: 102.50, 104, 108.50
Contract: 11/19 105c
Stop Loss: 15%
$TMUS WeeklyLooks like a good entry for a long here as an idea on TMUS weekly. Over sold, at a good support zone, with 150EMA below for stop loss target.
ER this week wouldn't be surprised if it sparks a pivot point here to at least get a bounce similar to Nike's (NKE) recent price action.
I'm in DEC and JAN $120C
Price target at least $130 for a head and shoulders pattern/relief bounce , or extreme bull case - continuation of the longer term uptrend to all time highs.
$TXRH Unusual Option Activity Texas RoadhouseCaught some UOA flow for $TXRH - MAR 22 95C
Current open interest is 9,487
I always study the charts when I see a big call / put buyer especially for a name that's not as common.
Looks like a volume uptick from recent ER, at good volume shelf support zone and recaptured weekly 21 EMA .... bullish falling wedge pattern. Want to see this breakout or perhaps more consolidation first, but indicators curling up my bias is to the upside.
I followed the whale, currently +33% with $97.5 zone first price target.
Refer to Ford's recent price action for one of the best examples of multiple falling wedge breakouts.
Fun Prediction for $BA - Must See!I decided to make my own prediction and draw in my own RSI, MACD, & 50 MA lines from today (9/14/21) through (2/25/22).
The pink bells indicate past explosive bullish movement (ER run ups?)
I have also created a fib extension from the last impulse wave
Let me know what you guys think of my prediction!
My Plan for 9/14/21 - 9/24/21
Entries: $214, 213.50
Exits: $218, 218.50, $220
Once any of my entries are triggered, I will hop in a $BA $217.5c 9/24/21 (3.30)
-Gordy
$EXPR - Don't miss this one!! EXPR is FINALLY ready for the next round!! Blowing through $5.50 resistance and exploding through its average daily range with insane volume today, I’m adding to existing longs on this severely undervalued retailer...
Sitting at a $390M market cap even after this run, selling for .35 price to book, this company employs 10K people and has $1.56B in sales. Do you really think they’re going out of business???
58% institutional ownership (+6.72% in 3mo)
Sales Q/Q +86.20%
EPS Q/Q +108.50%
$HYZN - Another low priced meme stock with expensive DOTM callsOn the back of our early success with yesterday’s bullish call spread on $ATER up 10.53% today.. we’ve found another similar play.. a low priced meme stock getting huge volumes but not yet blown out with a RSI of only 65.. $HYZN was up 23% today on 8m shares traded, whilst not huge yet it could be.. and as usual with these low priced meme stocks option dealers are forced to price calls higher than puts (opposite of most stocks) to account for melt-up risk, so to take advantage of the right sided skew we buy a bullish call spread.. we’re looking at the OCT’15 $10/15 call spread for a debit of $1.15 and potential reward of $3.85 giving us a reward/risk of 3.34..