Orange Juice Crisis Prompts Search for Alternative FruitsThe global orange juice industry faces an unprecedented crisis due to bad weather and disease in Brazil, the world's largest orange exporter. Orange juice futures have surged to record highs, nearly doubling in price over the past year. This situation has led manufacturers to explore alternative fruits like mandarins for juice production.
Key Points:
- Record High Prices: Orange juice futures hit $4.92 a pound, reflecting concerns over supply shortages.
- Natural Disasters: A hurricane and cold snap in Florida, along with citrus greening disease, have devastated US orange groves.
- Brazil's Struggles: Brazil's orange production has fallen by 25% this year due to adverse weather and disease.
- Mandarins as Alternatives: Industry leaders are considering mandarins, which are more resilient to climate change, as a viable alternative for juice production.
- Regulatory Challenges: The International Fruit and Vegetable Juice Association is exploring legislative changes to include other citrus fruits in the definition of orange juice.
The long-term outlook remains uncertain as the industry adapts to these challenges, potentially leading to higher prices and new juice flavors for consumers.
Oranges
Orangejuice Strong Bullish long Hot Summer in EuropeAlongside apple juice, orange juice is one of the most popular juices in Central Europe. It is produced by pressing oranges and mandarins and has a sweet-sour taste. Use of the designation “juice” is defined in the Fruit Juice Regulation. According to this, drinks may only be labelled as juice if they are produced entirely from the juice or flesh of the relevant fruits.
Strategy: Strong Bullish
Use corrections to position size
RSI is giving permanent trend continuatoion signals, and the trend is becoiming more stronger
Orange Juice has broken the iportant resistance of 2.29 and reaching its first target at 4.80-5$
Oranges and the Next Inflation CycleOJ1 Oranges have been building a higher low since spring of 2019 and completed the higher low in the Feb. 2020 crash.
With broad commodities CRB having formed a long-term cycle low in the 1Q2020 and the global economy already heating up and many commodities already breaking out of their multi-year downtrends (Uranium, industrial metals, agriculture), it has become increasingly clear that we are in the next re-flation (growth and inflation) cycle.
a higher low for oranges over a trend duration, at a time when most commodities hit all-time cycle lows, is a more structurally healthy bullish set up than most other commodities.
Gold and silver tend to be the popular way to express a bullish view on inflation, but during times when bond yields are rising with inflation, consumer and industrial commodities tend to outperform the precious metals.
Oranges, Citrus, Commodity Inflation CycleI couldn't find any ETFs for oranges, I don't think one exists. In instances like this you have to get creative.
In one of my value scanners, I found a citrus company $LMNR Limoniera. International citrus producer.
I've been long this stock since it the mid-$14s.
If the thesis on commodities, oranges, and global reflation turns out to be even somewhat correct, this stock should do alright. Revisiting or surpassing previous all-time highs is not out of the question.
aud/usd falling wedge pattern has occurred from the 1d and lower. Looking to go long since the price bounced off the support line very nicely.
lotsizes and RR's are listed on the analysis as well and pictures of the further analysis on the 15 min chart will be listed as well. Make sure to check that out as well.
trade safely as well guys.
AUD/USD falling wedgesfalling wedge pattern has occurred from the 1d and lower. Looking to go long since the price bounced off the support line very nicely.
lotsizes and RR's are listed on the analysis as well and pictures of the further analysis on the 15 min chart will be listed as well. Make sure to check that out as well.
trade safely as well guys.