ORCL
A Big Boy Oracle For The Bucket? Well, it looks real... Oracle is already traded the highs, technical the stock is distributing. So It is question of whether we upthrust or we go straight through the Ice. Not one I want to bet on...
Bullish OracleStochastic created two divergences simultaneously.
There is a ~75% chance of price following the stochastic this time.
If it does, expect the price to trade in the box given.
So be bullish on Oracle.
Potential Long-Term Gartley (WIP)This is more of a "Concept". I am a complete newbie, just looking to validate the concepts of these patterns. Please feel free to comment and critique. I would appreciate the feedback.
THE WEEK AHEAD -- FOMC, FOMC, FOMC; LONG VIX; OIL; EARNINGSHere's what I'm looking at for next week:
VIX/VIX PRODUCTS . VIX finished last week at 16.50. I will look at VIX/VIX product setups early next week depending how the "horse does at the gate" (Monday). If we see a tight range in the S&P like we did pre-Draghi in prepation for FOMC, VIX could drift go a little lower Monday through Wednesday, in which case I will want to use VIX, VIX, or UVXY to go "long volatility."
Index ETF's . There is little sense in selling April expiry premium here in broader index instruments with VIX the way it is. Brazil, oil/gas, and the gold space continue to have the volatility, but I'm already in all of the underlyings that have any juice in their options that are at 70+ implied volatility rank (UNG (covered call), EWZ (iron fly), GDXJ (short strangle), RIG (short strangle), GLD (credit spread), and XOP (short strangle) in those sectors.
If you look at SPY implied volatility month-to-month, it doesn't approach something "regular" until the June expiry (19.9%), so I may look to set up some small premium selling play in the June expiry on the possibility that low volatility sticks around for a period of time and to have something in the queue for that event. Trying to sell 45 DTE premium in the index ETF's in a period like we had last year between mid-March and late August was a total slog ... .
Oil . The 2016 high was set on 1/4 at 35.36 in USOIL. it tested the underside of that level Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of last week and broke through it by a whopping .20 cents on Friday, so who knows whether that'll hold. If oil caves, the S&P will follow hard (the S&P currently has a .93 correlation with USOIL). However, oil has a tendency to enter fairly lengthy consolidative periods before moving directionally forward, so be prepared for oil to taunt you with both suggestions that it's going to break significantly higher and indications that it's going to totally implode ... .
If you're into trading spot forex, watch oil's effect on the petro currency USDCAD. The Loonie may get a double whammy from a cave in oil plus Fed tightening/dovish-hawkishness. The Loonie's entire strength profile from 2/11 is largely on the back of oil.
EURUSD. This is the strong/weak pair to watch post-Draghi and running up into FOMC. For me, this is not a pair I would mess around with "playing in the middle" between 1.08 and 1.10. As I did last year, I would wait for it to hit 1.14 and then go short if it's inclined to react to the upside on whatever FOMC says; otherwise, stay out. The fundamentals on this pair should be telling everyone to only short on strength (ECB easing; Fed tightening), as attempting to play the 200 pips between 1.08 and 1.10 has been and is likely to continue to be somewhat discouraging as it looks to find its footing in the larger range between 1.14 and near parity.
EARNINGS. Although the earnings season has been described as "over" for this quarter, there are a few issues that are still due to report that might be worth playing, assuming that the volatility is there: ORCL (Tuesday, after close), FDX (Wednesday after close), and ADBE (Thursday, after market close). As it stands right now, none of those meet my implied volatility rank rules (70th percentile plus), with all three of those having percentiles hovering around 50, but naturally that might change running up into the actual announcement.
THE WEEK AHEAD -- "LESS THAN SEXY" FOR PREMIUM SELLINGWith the VIX finishing the week out at 16.66, next week is setting itself up to be a less than sexy week for premium selling, particularly in broader market instruments like SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA.
Moving to other sectors, the Brazil ETF, EWZ continues to be hot premium selling wise, with an implied volatility rank of 72. A couple of issues in the oil and gas space follow closely behind in the 70+ club (UNG (implied vol rank 72); RIG (71)); with several gold plays remaining in the 60s (GDXJ, GDX, GG).
From there, volatility in individual underlyings and/or ETF's slips off somewhat dramatically, with only a few in the 50-60 range (X at 57; ORCL, 57 (one of this season's last earnings plays); CAT, 55 (earnings afterglo vol); and GLD, 52; with the remainder of most highly liquid, options playable issues slipping below 50 thereafter.
Given the fact that I'm in a gold play, in EWZ, and have exposure to oil, I don't see myself putting on a heckuvalot of new trades next week. That's not all bad; these little volatility lulls make for a good time to do housekeeping on the various messes I created during the last volatility wave, clean up the earnings plays that didn't work out this past season, and/or dry out powder for the next volatility spike or whatever comes next ... .
Naturally, should VIX spike to plus 25, I'll be right back in it with some new plays to take advantage of that. In the meantime, a cleaning of my trading "garage"/"basement"/"backyard" is overdue.
It ain't sexy, but it's gotta be done some time.
Oracle // Bullish Cypher @33.46$ / IF=THEN ®NYSE:ORCL
"Cloud competitors have their eyes on Oracle as the company continues to rapidly build out its SaaS and PaaS product offerings. To put this in perspective, Oracle’s human capital management (HCM) SaaS product secured three times as many new customers as competitor Workday’s similar HCM product. This focus on the cloud has led Oracle to expect approximately $1.5-$2 billion in new SaaS and PaaS purchases this year alone. Oracle’s SaaS and PaaS revenues experienced a 54% increase last quarter as a result of the shift of 95% of its services to the cloud. While the cloud has been gaining traction, it hasn’t been enough to offset weakness in Oracle’s bread and butter software licensing division, which dropped 16% last quarter. For that reason, Oracle has not been able to beat analyst estimates on the bottom-line for the past eight quarters, missing in five of those quarters and meeting in the other three. Revenues have been even worse, missing expectations in six of the past eight quarters. Year-to-date the stock has dropped nearly 15%."
Report Wednesday, December 16;
Information Technology - Software | Reports December 16, after the close.
The "community" consensus calls for EPS of $0.61, in-line with Wall Street. Revenue estimates are also quite close, with the "community" calling for $9.113B and the Street slightly lower at $9.094B.
Safe trades;
EARNINGS PLAYS THIS COMING WEEK -- FDX, ORCLOnly two earnings plays stick out to me this coming week -- FDX and ORCL, both of which announce earnings on 12/16 (Wednesday) after market close, so look to put on setups before NY close on Wednesday.
Currently, FDX's 52 week IVR is at 54 (IV 34), which isn't stellar, but it's at 92 for the past six months. Moreover, there is pretty good credit to be had whether you go short strangle or iron condor, so I imagine I'll play that one way or another if the IV sticks in there.
ORCL (IVR 75/IV 35) isn't looking all that hot, frankly, because I can't get 1.00 in credit with either a short strangle or iron condor (a Dec 24 34.5/39.5 short strangle will only get you a .61 credit at the mid price right now, which isn't anything to go crazy over; a same expiry iron condor just isn't worth it). Nevertheless, we could see a greater volatility pop toward earnings that makes it a little bit more worthwhile such that I'll play just because there isn't that much else worthwhile to do ... .
(Of course, there is that all FOMC thing next week, too).
Bullish On ORCL1. Bullish Engulfing+Bullish Divergence
2. Bounce on Fibs 61.8
3. Primary Trend Sideways
4. Intermediate : Bullish, Minor Bearish
ORCL: Failed Bear Flag to the Upside ORCL is in a bear flag. but with that being said the chart is in an overall uptrend. Enter as the trade breaks out of the trendline then add once more conformation is gained when each decending high pivot is broken shown by the brown lines. These failed bear flags when triggered to the upside tend to retrace the down move about 80% giving us our target of around 42.35
Oracle Corp Daily (02.07.2014) Technical Analysis TrainingThe Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis shows the following:
The ORCL share made a local bottom in the KUMO cloud that means that $40 is a support for the share.MACD is trying to change the trend but is bearish under the zero line and RSI is near 46 towards to 50. The volume is less than the usual.
If the share keep going uptrend, the top of KUMO and Kijun Sen are the next resistance. I think that wait and see is the right strategy with some bullish thoughts of course.
Oracle Corp Daily (23.06.2014) Technical AnalysisThe Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis shows the following:
The ORCL share has made a long term development with the support of the trend line (light blue). This support line was over the KUMO, which means that the ORCL was bullish in long term. The weekly diagram shows marginally bearish. The monthly is on a local top until now. In last Friday after earnings went out the share declined 3.98% BUT it closed on higher high of the day trading with 4 times the usual volume.
So the first think in mind is that the next week is the key for next trend. The stock in Friday close almost on its higher high (intraday). MACD is bearish w/divergence and RSI is near 38. The volume as I said was 4 times the usual.
We have no special candlestick pattern. The share is in the KUMO and with this sharply decline is under Kijun Sen (blue line) and Tenkan Sen (green line) too.
There is no special pattern. I cannot place a fib measurement.
So I think that the critical point is next week’s movement. If it gets out of the KUMO the bullish trend will be here again. Stop loss under the KUMO.
I think that the bullish trend will be back again.
Oracle Corp Weekly (23/2014) Chart Technical AnalysisThe Oracle (ORCL) weekly chart shows the following signs:
The Price of ORCL made a weekly long movement last week over the Tenkan Sen and closes at its highs. The MACD is on bullish sign and the RSI too. The Stock is over the EMA200, the KUMO Cloud and the Tenkan-sen is over the Kijun-sen. There is no bearish sign there.
I expect that the stock will continue the bullish movement. The last long movement of the stock was from $25,38 to $36,32 giving a 1,618 fibonacci projection to $43,08 for a first target as I mentioned two weeks ago. Consider that the reversal pattern show a price target at $46.98.
Oracle Corp Weekly (22/2014) Chart Technical AnalysisThe Oracle (ORCL) weekly chart shows the following signs:
The Price of ORCL made a little weekly short movement last week over the Tenkan Sen but it is like a Hammer. The MACD is on bullish sign and the RSI too. The Stock is over the EMA200, the KUMO Cloud and the Tenkan-sen is over the Kijun-sen.
I expect that the stock will continue the bullish movement. The last long movement of the stock was from $25,38 to $36,32 giving a 1,618 fibonacci projection to $43,08 for a first target as I mentioned last week.
Oracle Corp Weekly (21/2014) Chart Technical AnalysisThe Oracle (ORCL) weekly chart shows the following signs:
The Price of ORCL made a Long movement ($41,31 to $42,15) with a green candlestick last week over the Tenkan Sen and continues the bullish trend. The MACD is on bullish sign and the RSI too. The Stock is over the EMA200, the KUMO Cloud and the Tenkan-sen is over the Kijun-sen.
I expect that the stock will continue the bullish movement. The last long movement of the stock was from $25,38 to $36,32 giving a 1,618 fibonacci projection to $43,08 for a first target.
