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GOLDMASTER1| BTCUSDT --- BTC/USDT Analysis Update — April 14th Yesterday’s BTC analysis played out perfectly from the highlighted Bullish Order Block around $83,297. Price respected this demand zone and started its bullish reversal as anticipated. Currently, BTC is trading near $84,600, steadily climbing toward the target resistance zone around $87,879. As long as the price holds above the $83,300–$83,000 support range, the bullish scenario remains valid. The market is showing clear signs of strength on the lower timeframes (1H) with higher lows forming, suggesting continued momentum toward the $87,800–$88,000 resistance area. Congratulations to those who followed this setup — price is moving smoothly as expected! GOLDMASTER1---
Long
by Goldmasters1
GOLDMASTERS1 | XAUUSD H1 --- GOLD/USD Price Action Update - 1H Chart The bulls are currently in full control as the price has broken through key resistance levels and is approaching new highs at $3,236.680. Multiple CHoCH (Change of Character) and BOS (Break of Structure) confirm bullish momentum. Price previously respected the ORDERBLOCK zones around $2,950 and $3,070 before this strong rally. Current structure suggests a potential retest of the nearest SUPPORT zone around $3,130, which aligns with a previous order block. Traders should watch for: A possible retest at support before continuation. Confirmation of bullish entries at the order block or trendline support. Reaction at higher levels for potential profit-taking or reversal signs. Stay disciplined and follow your risk management! --- Disclaimer: This post is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. GOLDMASTERS1---
TVC:GOLDLong
by Goldmasters1
GOLDMASTERS1 | GOLD 15M OUTLOOK --- GOLD 15M OUTLOOK — TRADE ACTIVATED Price perfectly respected the Bearish Order Block around 3,235-3,236 and has now rejected from that zone, triggering short setups. The move suggests sellers are in control below 3,231.668 — and price is now heading toward the Fair Value Gap (FVG) area around 3,216.942 for a potential reaction. Key Levels: Entry: Short position activated near 3,231-3,235 zone. First Target: 3,216.942 (FVG) — price is approaching this now. Final Target: If FVG breaks, price may seek deeper liquidity at the lower bullish zones near 3,210. GOLDMASTERS1---
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Goldmasters1
GOLDMASTERS1 | GOLD 15M OUTLOOK --- GOLD 15M OUTLOOK: Price is currently rejecting from the Bearish Order Block (3,232 - 3,236), showing signs of short-term weakness after tapping into supply. If bearish pressure holds below this zone, the price may retrace down toward the Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 3,214 — which could act as the next reaction point for a bullish bounce. If the FVG fails to hold, the next strong support lies at the Bullish Order Block (3,206 - 3,210) and a deeper one at 3,198 - 3,202. On the upside, if bulls reclaim the Bearish Order Block and break above it, the next target would be the Buyside Liquidity at 3,244.339. Bias: Below 3,232 = Bearish short-term. Above 3,236 = Bullish continuation toward liquidity. Key Levels: Resistance: 3,232 - 3,236 (Bearish Order Block) Support: 3,214 (FVG) | 3,206 - 3,210 | 3,198 - 3,202 (Bullish Order Blocks) Target: 3,244.339 (Buyside Liquidity) GOLDMASTERS1---
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Goldmasters1
GOLDMASTER1| BTCUSDT LONG--- BTCUSDT 1H Timeframe - Bitcoin / TetherUS BTCUSDT has shown strong bullish momentum after breaking multiple structure points and forming clear CHoCH (Change of Character) patterns. The price is currently approaching a orderblock around the 83K–84K range. We expect a healthy retracement into this area, which could act as a potential entry point for buyers. If price respects this orderblock zone, the next bullish target would be the 87K–88K resistance area + orderblock, as marked. However, if the price breaks below this zone, the market could revisit the lower Order Blocks around 80K and 76K for liquidity before any further upside. Trade safe and wait for confirmations on the retest before entering. Do your own research and use this as a supporting bias. Wishing you good luck and profitable trades! GOLDMASTER1---
Long
by Goldmasters1
Ultimate Guide to Smart Money ConceptsWhat Are Smart Money Concepts? Introduction: If you’ve been trading for a while, you’ve probably noticed that sometimes the market moves in ways that just don’t make sense. You’ve got your technical analysis all set, but the market seems to go in the opposite direction. That’s where Smart Money Concepts (SMC) come in. At its core, SMC is all about understanding how big players in the market (think hedge funds, institutions, and banks) move prices. These players have massive amounts of capital and information, and they don’t trade like the average retail trader. Understanding their behavior can help you see where the market is going next before it happens. What is Smart Money? In the world of trading, smart money refers to the institutional investors who move markets with their huge orders. Unlike retail traders, who might be relying on indicators or patterns, smart money trades based on liquidity, market structure, and order flow. While retail traders are typically reacting to price movements, smart money is the one causing those moves. They’re out there seeking out places where they can accumulate positions or distribute them. The tricky part is that they’ll often make the market go in one direction just to trap retail traders and get them to take positions before flipping it back to where they wanted it to go in the first place. Key Concepts in Smart Money Trading 1. Market Structure Market structure refers to the way price moves in a trend. It’s essentially a pattern of higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows for a downtrend. Smart money uses these patterns to their advantage. When they see the market creating a series of higher highs and higher lows, they’ll take advantage of that momentum to push prices further, knowing retail traders will follow along. But when they want to reverse the market, they’ll push it in the opposite direction, creating a market structure shift or a break of structure, which signals that the trend is over and a new one is starting. 2. Liquidity Liquidity refers to the amount of orders available to be filled at different price levels. Smart money knows exactly where retail traders are likely to place their stops or buy orders. They’ll often push the price to these levels, triggering those stops and collecting the liquidity. Once that liquidity is grabbed, they’ll reverse the price and move it in the intended direction. A common way to spot liquidity is by looking for equal highs or equal lows, where traders often place their stop-loss orders. These are often areas smart money will target. 3. Order Blocks Order blocks are areas on the chart where institutions have placed big orders. These are key levels that represent where price might return to later, and they can act as areas of support or resistance. Order blocks are usually found after big price moves. Institutions place these orders to either accumulate positions or offload them, and price often comes back to these levels to fill orders that were left behind. 4. Fair Value Gaps (FVG) Fair value gaps, or imbalances, are price areas where the market moves quickly, leaving gaps between candlesticks. These gaps represent areas where the market has moved too fast for regular orders to fill, and price tends to return to these levels to fill the gaps. Smart money knows that these imbalances are critical areas for future price action, and they’ll use them to re-enter the market after a move has been completed. Why Does Smart Money Matter? Understanding smart money concepts is like learning to think like an institution. Instead of chasing after price based on typical retail indicators, you start looking for the big moves that smart money is making. You begin to notice when the market is setting traps for retail traders, and how these large players accumulate positions before pushing price in a big way. With SMC, you stop guessing and start anticipating. By looking for liquidity zones, order blocks, and market structure shifts, you can get in sync with the big players and follow their moves, not fight them. Conclusion Smart Money Concepts are all about shifting your perspective. Instead of thinking like a retail trader looking for quick breakouts, oversold/overbought conditions, or chasing trends — start looking at the market as the big players do. Pay attention to where the liquidity is, identify key order blocks, and use market structure shifts to guide your trades. By learning to spot these key signs, you’ll stop being the one who’s trapped and start being the one who’s in sync with the smart money. Ready to trade smarter? Keep an eye on those order blocks and liquidity zones — they’re where the real money is made. Next Steps - Start practicing by reviewing charts through the SMC lens. - Keep refining your understanding of market structure, liquidity, and order blocks. - Stay patient, smart money trades aren’t about quick wins, but about positioning yourself for big moves. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this guide helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Education
by TehThomas
76
NVIDIA: Time for a Graphic Comeback?🔍Analysis: Following up from a previous breakdown, NVIDIA has now tapped into a high-probability Weekly Order Block (OB) just above the sell-side liquidity zone at $88.97. This level also aligns with a structural area of support, making it a prime zone for a potential bullish reversal. Key signs: Price is showing early signs of displacement from the OB. If this zone holds, we could be looking at a 77% move back up to the buyside liquidity at $157.92. Watch for a strong weekly candle close above $96.30 to confirm the bounce. 🛑 Invalidation: If price fails to hold this OB and breaks below $88.97, expect a deeper move into the $76.06 zone. 💡 Summary: Patience is key. We’re sitting on a solid base for a potential bullish push — now it’s all about the confirmation candle. 📊 DYOR — Don't just HODL, study the chart!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by INSIDER_INTEL
we might continue dropping daily hidden divergence, price might want to continue seeking sell side liquidity 4hr is making a new low and taking out old lows (sell side liquidity) to the left MACD is not converging as of yet 1hr hbrsh-div price is dropping ahead of red news this Friday, could head to 1hr old low or weekly low, waiting to see how price reacts to news m15 price is below POC of previous NY session POC, as well as overnight Asian and London session converging nicely ahead of news I would favor price reacting short-term from m15 bearish imbalance before reaching the lows around the NY open after news but we will see
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by martiedirect
Road to riches - paved with good intentions Order block 1 day timer has yet to fall to the previous buy zone Order block 1 hour timer just hit the bottom of a buy zone and may reverse to 800 zone. The 4 hour order block is half way thru a plunge of 3 buy zones Once 1 hour recovers and higher ones do too. But how much further will we drop? Right now we entering a high order block buy zone that can drop to 400 or 500 zone. Be careful trading lower time frames - we are still seeing turbulence.
Long
by Scrogglez
What Are the Inner Circle Trading Concepts? What Are the Inner Circle Trading Concepts? Inner Circle Trading (ICT) offers a sophisticated lens through which traders can view and interpret market movements, providing traders with insights that go beyond conventional technical analysis. This article explores key ICT concepts, aiming to equip traders with a thorough understanding of how these insights can be applied to enhance their trading decisions. Introduction to the Inner Circle Trading Methodology Inner Circle Trading (ICT) methodology is a sophisticated approach to financial markets that zeroes in on the behaviours of large institutional traders. Unlike conventional trading methods, ICT is not merely about recognising patterns in price movements but involves understanding the intentions behind those movements. It is part of the broader Smart Money Concept (SMC), which analyses how major players influence the market. Key Inner Circle Trading Concepts Within the ICT methodology, there are many concepts to learn. Below, we’ve explained the most fundamental ideas central to ICT trading. Structure Understanding the structure of a market is fundamental to effectively employing the ICT methodology. In the context of ICT, market structure is defined by the identification of trends through specific patterns of highs and lows. Market Structure A market trend is typically characterised by a series of higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend. This sequential pattern provides a visual representation of market sentiment and momentum. Importantly, market trends are fractal, replicating similar patterns at different scales or timeframes. For example, what appears as a bearish trend on a short timeframe might merely be a corrective phase within a larger bullish trend. By understanding this fractal nature, traders can better align their strategies with the prevailing trend at different trading intervals. Break of Structure (BOS) A Break of Structure occurs when there is a clear deviation from these established patterns of highs and lows. In an uptrend, a BOS is signalled by prices exceeding a previous high without falling below the most recent higher low, confirming the strength and continuation of the uptrend. Conversely, in a downtrend, a BOS is indicated when prices drop below a previous low without breaching the prior lower high, signifying that the downtrend remains strong. Identifying a BOS gives traders valuable clues about the continuation of the current market direction. Change of Character (CHoCH) The Change of Character in a market happens when there is a noticeable alteration in the behaviour of price movements, suggesting a potential reversal of a given trend. This might be seen in an uptrend where the price fails to reach a new high and then breaks below a recent higher low, indicating that the buying momentum is waning and a bearish reversal is possible. Identifying a CHoCH helps traders recognise when the market momentum is shifting, which is critical for adjusting positions to capitalise on or protect against a new trend. Market Structure Shift (MSS) A Market Structure Shift is a significant change in the market that can disrupt the existing trend. This specific type of CHoCH is typically marked by a price moving sharply (a displacement) through a key structural level, such as a higher low in an uptrend or a lower high in a downtrend. These shifts can signal a profound change in market dynamics, with the sharp move often preceding a new sustained trend. Recognising an MSS allows traders to reevaluate their current bias and adapt to a new trend, given its clear signal. Order Blocks Order blocks are a central component of ICT trading, providing crucial insights into potential areas where the price may react strongly due to significant buy or sell interests from large market participants. Regular Order Blocks A regular order block is an area on the price chart representing a concentration of buying (demand zone) or selling (supply zone) activity. In an uptrend, a bullish order block is identified during a downward price movement and marks the last area of selling before a substantial upward price movement occurs. Conversely, a bearish order block forms in an uptrend where the last buying action appears before a significant downward price shift. In the ICT trading strategy, order blocks are seen as reversal areas. So, if the price revisits a bullish order block following a BOS higher, it’s assumed that the block will hold and prompt a reversal that produces a new higher high. Breaker Blocks Breaker blocks play a crucial role in identifying trend reversals. They are typically formed when the price makes a BOS before reversing and breaking beyond an order block that should hold if the established market structure is to be maintained. This formation indicates that liquidity has been taken. For instance, in an uptrend, if the price creates a new high but then reverses below the previous higher low, the bullish order block above the low becomes a breaker block. A breaker block can be an area that prompts a reversal as the new trend unfolds; it’s a similar concept to support becoming resistance and vice versa. Mitigation Blocks Mitigation blocks are similar to breaker blocks, except they occur after a failure swing, where the price attempts but fails to surpass a previous peak in an uptrend or a previous trough in a downtrend. This pattern indicates a loss of momentum and potential reversal as the price fails to sustain its previous direction. For example, in an uptrend, if the price makes a lower high and then breaks the structure by dropping below the previous low, the order block formed at the previous low becomes a mitigation block. These blocks are critical for traders because they’re also expected to produce a reversal if a new trend has been set in motion. Liquidity Liquidity refers to areas on the price chart with a high concentration of trading activity, typically marked by stop orders from retail traders. Buy- and Sell-Side Liquidity Buy-side liquidity is found where there is a likely accumulation of short-selling traders' stop orders, typically above recent highs. Conversely, sell-side liquidity is located below recent lows, where bullish traders' stop orders accumulate. When prices touch these areas, activating stop orders can cause a reversal, presenting a potential level of support or resistance. Liquidity Grabs A liquidity grab occurs when the price quickly spikes into these high-density order areas, triggering stops and then reversing direction. In ICT theory, this action is often orchestrated by larger players aiming to capitalise on the flurry of orders to execute their large-volume trades with minimal slippage. It's a strategic move that temporarily shifts price momentum, usually just long enough to trigger the stops before the market direction reverses. Inducement An inducement is a specific type of liquidity grab that triggers stops and entices other traders to enter the market. It often appears as a peak or trough, typically into an area of liquidity, in a minor counter-trend within the larger market trend. Inducements are designed by smart money to create an illusion of a trend change, prompting an influx of retail trading in the wrong direction. Once the retail traders have committed, the price swiftly reverses, aligning back with the original major trend. Trending Movements In the Inner Circle Trading methodology, two specific types of sharp trending movements signal significant shifts in market dynamics: fair value gaps and displacements. Fair Value Gaps A fair value gap (FVG) occurs when there is a noticeable absence of trading within a price range, typically represented by a swift and substantial price move without retracement. This gap often forms between the wicks of two adjacent candles where no trading has occurred, signifying a strong directional push. Fair value gaps are important because they indicate areas on the chart where the price may return to "fill" the gap, usually before meeting an order block, offering potential trading opportunities as the market seeks to establish equilibrium. Displacements Displacements, also known as liquidity voids, are characterised by sudden, forceful price movements occurring between two chart levels and lacking the typical gradual trading activity observed in between. They are essentially amplified and more substantial versions of fair value gaps, often spanning multiple candles and FVGs, signalling a heightened imbalance between buy and sell orders. Other Components Beyond these ICT concepts, there are a few other niche components. Kill Zones Kill Zones refer to specific timeframes during the trading day when market activity significantly increases due to the opening or closing of major financial centres. These periods are crucial for traders as they often set the tone for price movements based on the increased volume and volatility: Optimal Trade Entry An optimal trade entry (OTE) is a type of Inner Circle trading strategy, found using Fibonacci retracement levels. After an inducement that prompts a displacement (leaving behind an FVG), traders use the Fibonacci retracement tool to pinpoint entry areas. The first point is set at the major high or low that prompts the displacement, while the second point is set at the next significant swing high or low that forms. In a bearish movement, for example, the initial point is set at the swing high before the displacement and the subsequent point at the new swing low. Traders often look to the 61.8% to 78.6% retracement level for entries. Balanced Price Range A balanced price range is observed when two opposing displacements create FVGs in a short timeframe, indicating a broad zone of price consolidation. During this period, prices typically test both extremes, attempting to fill the gaps. This scenario offers traders potential zones for trend reversals as the price seeks to establish a new equilibrium, as well as key levels to watch for a breakout. The Bottom Line Understanding ICT concepts gives traders the tools to decode complex market signals and align their strategies with the influential trends shaped by the largest market participants. For those looking to apply these sophisticated trading techniques practically, opening an FXOpen account can be a great step towards engaging with the markets through a robust platform designed to support advanced trading strategies. FAQs What Are ICT Concepts in Trading? ICT (Inner Circle Trading) concepts encompass a series of advanced trading principles that focus on replicating the strategies of large institutional players. These concepts include liquidity zones, order blocks, market structure shifts, and optimal trade entries, all aimed at understanding and anticipating significant market movements. What Is ICT in Trading? ICT in trading refers to the Inner Circle Trading methodology, a strategy developed to align smaller traders’ actions with those of more influential market participants. It utilises specific market phenomena, such as order blocks and liquidity patterns, to analyse price movements and improve trading outcomes. What Is ICT Trading? ICT trading is the application of concepts that seek to identify patterns and structures that indicate potential price changes driven by institutional activities, aiming to capitalise on these movements. What Is ICT Strategy? An ICT strategy combines market analysis techniques to identify where significant market players are likely to influence prices. This includes analysing price levels where large volumes of buy or sell orders are anticipated to occur and identifying key times when market moves are most likely. Is ICT Better Than SMC? Comparing ICT and SMC (Smart Money Concept) is challenging as ICT is essentially a subset of SMC. While SMC provides a broader overview of how institutional money influences the markets, ICT offers more specific techniques and terms like inducements and displacements. Whether one is better depends on the trader’s specific needs and alignment with these methodologies’ intricacies. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
Market Analysis: EUR/USD (1H Chart)The EUR/USD pair is currently consolidating following a Break of Structure (BoS) to the upside, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment. The price action indicates a corrective phase after a strong bullish impulsive move. Key Levels: - Resistance: **1.09322** (target zone) - Support: **1.08622** (H1 demand zone) - Current Price: **1.08854** - Market Structure & Outlook : - The price recently formed a **BoS**, signalling a possible bullish continuation. - There is an **order block** within the highlighted demand zone, which could act as a strong support level. - The grey risk-reward box suggests a long position setup, with a stop-loss below **1.08622** and a target near **1.09322**. - Trading Consideration: - If the price retests the **H1 demand zone** and shows bullish confirmation, a long position could be favourable. - A break below **1.08622** could invalidate the bullish bias, shifting momentum to the downside. Overall, the market is currently at a decision point, with bullish continuation likely if key support holds.
Long
by BeaucoupPips
$TRUMP ─ @realDonaldTrump Long Trade SETUP$TRUMP ─ @realDonaldTrump Long Trade SETUP 👀 Looking for another long trade entry. ⚠️If the Twin OB fails, then a new low is on the table. ENTRY = TwinOB + FibFan + nPOC + Fib Golden Pocket + WO + DO SL = below VAL + TwinOB ------------ ------------ As always, my play is: ✅ 50% out at TP1 ✅ Move SL to entry ✅ Pre-set the rest of the position across remaining TPs It's important to take profits along the way and not turn a winning trade into a losing trade.
Long
by Bulltro
TESLA'S FALLI am seeing continuation to the downside of TESLA with all the market sentiment of Tariffs. TESLA has touched a previous order block as expected on the downward movement, closing with a support on the $252/255 area. I am awaiting 2 possible situations depending on Monday's ORB movement. 1- That TESLA will move up to the $384/382 area to retest Trendline and continue to liquidate orders down to the next order block which is in the range of $212/215 to commence a bounce to recovery. 2- Tesla will continue to drop from current range towards to the lowest order block to $212/215 for a bounce back. Looking forward to possible news to validate sentiments in order to make these moves happen. So far on prediction 23/0 so I am confident this is the markets intention for now.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by soymundo21
BNX: After a +900% Rally, What's Next?BNX had an incredible run, skyrocketing +900% in just 19 days, completing a 5-wave Elliott Wave structure and peaking at $1.3333. Since then, the price has been in a downtrend, now approaching the critical $1.00 psychological support level. Key Support Levels The weekly open sits at $0.9387, aligning perfectly with the Point of Control (POC) from the previous trading range, making this a crucial level to watch. However, the bigger question remains—where is the next high-probability trade setup? Liquidity Below $0.8278 – There's a significant liquidity pool just below this low, making it an attractive area for potential stop hunts before a reversal. 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement ($0.7333) – Measuring the full +900% move, the 50% retracement aligns near a key support zone. Weekly Bullish Order Block ($0.7076) – A historical area of demand, adding further confluence. 1.272 Fibonacci Extension ($0.7250) – Another confirmation of a potential bounce area. Anchored VWAP from $0.1334 – Currently sitting at $0.6675, this dynamic support strengthens the buy zone. 0.618 Fibonacci Speed Fan – If the price drops towards this level by late February, it could provide additional confluence for a bounce. Potential Trade Setups Bullish Setup: If price sweeps $0.8278 liquidity and enters the $0.7333 - $0.7076 demand zone, a long opportunity with confirmation could offer a great risk-to-reward trade.
BLong
by SiDec
2
Bitcoin: Mastering the Art of Resistance and SupportBitcoin recently broke below a 105‐day trading range, anchored by the critical 90K level. After the breakdown, it found support around 80K, prompting a sharp rebound back toward the previous range. This rebound, however, was short‐lived: BTC tested 95K, then quickly retraced, only to rally again toward 90K, where it trades at present. Overview of BTC’s 105‐Day Range Break and Retest: Yearly Open at $93,576: This is the single most important level to watch. Price currently sits below the yearly open, suggesting that, for now, bears hold the upper hand. If bulls cannot reclaim this threshold, the yearly candle remains vulnerable to turning red. 90K–95K Resistance Zone: With Bitcoin failing to sustain gains above 95K, this band becomes a natural focal point for potential short entries. Bears are expected to defend this region aggressively. The question: Where do we go next? Let’s break down both the resistance (short setup) and an upcoming support zone (long setup), incorporating a variety of confluences—from volume profiles and trend lines to Fibonacci retracements and pitchfork alignments. 1. Resistance Analysis & Short Thesis 1.1. Double Top Target at $72,800 A double top pattern has formed, suggesting a measured‐move target near $72,800. While not a guaranteed endpoint, this target serves as an early directional clue. Price could still find support at higher levels, so we use this only as one piece of a larger puzzle. Double Top Pattern with $72,800 Target: 1.2. The 105‐Day Trading Range & Retest Bitcoin spent over 100 days ranging between roughly 90K and 105K. The downside break turned that prior range into a new resistance zone—specifically 90K–95K, with an even stronger cluster up to $96,418 (Point of Control from that range). Fixed Range Volume Profile: The POC (Point of Control) from this 105‐day period lies at $96,418.05, further extending our resistance zone. Price retesting anywhere between 90K and the POC around 96K sets up potential short entries. Fixed Range Volume Profile Showing POC at $96,418.05: Stop Loss Guidance: Given the possibility of wicks or “stop hunts,” a safer invalidation point sits above 98K. That buffer allows the trade room to breathe without prematurely stopping out on minor spikes. 1.3. Daily & Weekly Moving Averages In addition to the above factors, both the daily 21 EMA/SMA and the weekly 21 EMA/SMA are converging in the 90-92K region, acting as additional resistance. 1.4. Bearish Trend Line & Pitchfork Alignment Bearish Trend Line: Connecting the all‐time high at $109,588 and the swing high at $106,457.44 yields a downward sloping line. This trend line has already acted as resistance near 100K on February 21. Pitchfork (Modified Schiff): Anchoring from the all‐time high (109,588) to the swing low (97,777.77) and back up to 106,457.44 confirms the same bearish trajectory, aligning neatly with the trend line around 95K. Bearish Trend Line & Pitchfork Convergence Around 95K: 1.5. Monthly Order Block & Fibonacci Confluence Monthly Order Block: Spanning from the yearly open (93,576) up to the POC (~96,418), this monthly order block forms a substantial supply zone. Price often gravitates toward the median line of an order block, which sits near 94–95K. Fibonacci Retracement (0.786): From the swing high at 99,475 (Feb 21) down to the low at 78,258.52, the 0.786 retracement is at 94,934.67—almost exactly the median line of the monthly order block. Monthly Order Block, Median Line, and 0.786 Fib at ~94,934.67: When price rallies swiftly to the 0.786 for the first time, it often presents an ideal short entry—especially under a confluence of bearish signals: 2. Short Trade Setup: Laddering In & Out 2.1. Scaling In (Entries) We allocate $25,000 (from a $100,000 account) and ladder our entries from 89,736 up to 96,206: Short Trade Laddered Entries: Stop Loss: $97,560 (slightly below the higher “breathing room” area of 98K). Max Risk: Approximately $1,028.16 (about 4.11% of the GETTEX:25K position, or 1.03% of the $100k account). 2.2. Scaling Out (Exits) We plan to take profits in increments as price drops, aiming for an average exit around $79,822.10: Potential Profit: Approximately $3,704.16 on a $25,000 position, which is +14.82% (or +3.70% of the $100k account). Risk‐to‐Reward Ratio: 3.60, an attractive R:R for a swing trade. 3. Support Analysis & Long Thesis Having addressed the downside retest and short scenario, let’s turn to potential support where Bitcoin might reverse for a long trade. 3.1. Double Top Target & 5‐Wave Structure The double top projected target near $72,800 aligns with a broader Elliott Wave possibility, where BTC may have completed a 5‐wave structure from the low at $15,476 to the all‐time high at $109,588. A typical Fibonacci retracement of this 5‐wave move suggests the 0.382 level at $73,637.22, which sits near a notable swing high of $73,777—coincidence? 5‐Wave Structure & 0.382 Fib Retracement at ~$73,637: 3.2. Monthly Bullish Order Block & Further Fib Confluence Monthly Bullish Order Block: Located around $71,280, historically a place where buyers have stepped in. Fib Retracement (49K to 109K): The 0.618 retracement lands at $72,144.62, adding further confluence around the 72–73K zone. Taken together, we begin to see a support band forming between $73,777 and $71,280. Monthly Bullish Order Block & 0.618 Fib ~$72,144.62: 3.3. Fib Speed Fan & Bullish Trend Line Fib Speed Fan (0.7): On higher timeframes, the 0.7 fan lines up with the same 71–73K region if BTC dips this month. Bullish Trend Line: Connecting the lows at 49K and 52,550 also aligns with this zone, reinforcing the idea that a cluster of support awaits if price slides that far. Bullish Trend Line & Fib Speed Fan ~$71–73K: 3.4. Potential Long Trade Setup Entry Range: Ladder in from 76K down to 71K (or adjust according to personal risk appetite within that 73–71K zone). Stop Loss: Below 70K, providing sufficient buffer. Target: At least the monthly open ($84,350), or higher if momentum supports a stronger bounce. Risk‐to‐Reward (R:R): Aim for 2:1 or better, depending on exact entries and the final target. 4. Summary Short Trade: Resistance Zone: 90K–95K, extending up to $96,418 (POC) and with the daily/weekly 21 EMA/SMA acting as additional resistance in the 90-92K region, plus a stop‐hunt buffer above 98K. Laddered Entry: GETTEX:25K allocated, averaging around $93,706, with a stop near $97,560. Scaling Out: Average exit near $79,822, netting a +14.82% gain on the position (+3.70% on account). R:R: 3.60—solid for a swing setup. Long Trade: Support Zone: Between $73,777 and $71,280, with multiple Fibonacci and structural confluences. Laddered Entry: Potential DCA from around 76K down to 71K, with a stop under 70K. Target: At least $84,350 (monthly open), likely offering a 2:1 or better risk‐to‐reward. Sharp moves up or down have been the norm lately, often gravitating to the 0.786 fib retracement on each leg, so remain vigilant for sudden volatility. Ultimately, flexibility is key. If Bitcoin reclaims the yearly open at $93,576 and pushes decisively above 95–98K, the bearish case weakens. Conversely, a significant drop below 80K brings the deeper support zone near 73–71K into sharper focus. Always be prepared for shifts in market conditions—confirm each setup with multiple indicators and chart patterns before entering any trade. Stay up to date with evolving market dynamics and adjust your strategy accordingly. Happy trading! P.S. If you have any coin requests, feel free to share them in the comments. I will be selecting one or two for the next technical analysis.
Short
by SiDec
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