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USDCAD Weekly OutlookHello traders, This is my outlook for FX:USDCAD , With dollar strength rising this week, so will usdcad. We will have a somewhat quite week this week with USD and CAD both having a bank holiday tomorrow, as well as a few economic data reports this week, with more important events on the cad side. On Wednesday, for Cad, we have BOC rate statement, PMI, and job opening, I expect these reports to come out mixed with some positive/negative not causing too much movement in price, as Cads economy isn't strong enough to taper just yet. On Friday, volatility will pick up in that we have both PPI for USD, and employment change/unemployment rate for CAD. I believe that USD news will be lower than expected and CAD being mixed again as employment changes have been on the weaker side for CAD, but overall that dollar weakness will help price push down lower, distributing the net short positions accumulated throughout the beginning of the week. Technical side: 1. I expect price to consolidate on Monday 09/06, then by Tuesday we begin moving bullish to start accumulating more short orders as we move bullish to the HTF order block. COT report on 08/31 shows commercials added a 2600 long positions and reduced their short positions by 6500. However, commercials are still net bearish. There could possibly be a deeper pull back, but at the end of the week, I'm expecting TVC:DXY to lose that strength and continue bearish. Edit: we can possibly see a deeper pullback to 1.26145 if the current target is violated. I forgot to add that in. Potential Bullish Fundamental Catalyst: 1. 09/08 Increased Job Openings-usd 2.Lower Unemployment Claims/oil inventory-usd 3.Lower PPI, inflation curving down, reduction in government spending package.-usd 4. accelerating the TF for rate hikes.-usd 5. Higher inflation numbers, unemployment rates, lower job opening/filling-CAD Bearish Fundamental Catalyst: 1.09/15 Increased corporate/capital earning tax-usd 2. 09/27 3.5 Trillion Government spending package bill (can be negotiated through November)-- possible 5-10% pull back on equities.-usd 3. increased inflation , less job openings, higher unemployment claims-usd 4.Stimulus support because of rising delta cases 5. delaying tapering process.-usd 6. CAD good economic growth with strong economic data reports 7. CAD-rumors of tapering Hope everyone has a great trading week :)
Long
by stimichele
EURUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp growth and tested the level of resistance. The price did not break it out, but is still trading near it, which shows the weakness of sellers now. Moreover, there is a strong uptrend, which is also a bullish signal. Volume Zones: We need to point out a new volume level of resistance 1.1896 - 1.1900. The price is trading near this mark. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 70% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: Around 90 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
1
EURUSD-Weekly OutlookHello Traders, This week I expect a minor pullback from last weeks expansion to one of the three targets posted as we've hit an intermediate high/OB and need to grab sell side liquidity to continue distributing buy side orders-to reach the monthly high target. This will be a more relaxed week in the month as there are not too many EUR/USD economic data reports, and there is a USD holiday on Monday. The economic reports for EUR have all bad forecasts while USD have positive forecast for its reports and that would help EU move lower to the targets. However on September 9th, EUR is have a monetary refinancing meeting to decide whether or not the ECB is ready to cut back on stimulus which will be a bullish driving force for EU. Target 1 in in correlation to a 6/8 hour order block, FVG on the futures chart, breaker block, and OTE entry point based on the fibo 0.79 retracement point from the original accumulation area of last week. Target 2 is the same as target one but in correlation to a daily TF OB and is under possible liquidity pool that price can target before reversal. Target 3 is the most unlikely to happen as the fundamentals aren't there to catalyze price to retrace that far down, unless major USD news takes price there. Possible Bullish Catalyst: 1.ECB cuts back on stimulus support and hikes rates. 2. Positive economic sentiment 2. reopening and lessened travel restrictions 4. Negative USD economic data reports Possible Bearish Catalyst: 1. Positive USD economic data reports this week. 2. Negative consumer sentiment and data for EUR 3. Delay in tapering process for EUR. 4. rise in delta cases in EUR and rising inflation figures. 5. US tapering stimulus or rate hikes. I will continue to update as the week progresses if anything changes, have a great week :) (this is my trading journal)
Short
by stimichele
GBPUSD LongThis is my take on GBPUSD for the upcoming days... I will keep my eyes on the 1.37600 level where a beautiful bullish OB resides, and on its 50% level as well. I expect for this OB+ to be respected and for the price to continue to go higher afterwards. This pair has an old weekly high to take out and maybe to go and fill the FV GAP above. Only time will tell. What is your opinion on this pair for this week? There is risk in trading. This post is for educational purposes only.
Long
by MissC_FX
EURUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price resumed rising after a sharp correction and totally absorbed it, which shows a weakness of sellers. Moreover, the upward move was supported by the increased volume and large positive delta, which implies that buyers are dominating the market now. Volume Zones: We need to point out an important level of resistance 1.1784 - 1.1792, which has been already tested and contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 68% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may open long positions after a smooth downward correction of the price, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss may be placed below the support level. Profit Potential: More than 120 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
1