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USD/JPYOANDA:USDJPY - Very interesting here when we zoom out on the 4H - If we anticipate price action to continue upwards, we have price at the 4H BreakerBlock, which is right above the 50% fib. - Then drilling down to the 15m, we're looking for a structural break to the upside for an entry - If price continues to head down, this will invalidate the 15m entry long - I then need to look around the 4H 50-79% fib levels for another shot at going long, as this level does not break the recent HL on the 4H.
Long
by makerup
AUDUSD Sell SetupHere is the reason why I am anticipating this sell: Weekly: -we have an initial push to the downside off the key institutional level at 0.69000 which provided a level of sell orders at the close of June -we are in a new sell cycle and have initiated sells in a strong manner, establishing momentum to the downside at the onset -this momentum is the key reason for the sell outlook -the weekly lows, clustering around 0.66000 institutional level are providing incentive for price to push further to the downside H4: -we are officially bearish on H4 -we had a strong drop at the close of the week, culminating at around 0.67300 round level -the next phase on H4 is most likely a bullish push to retrace the closed selloff impulse last week -after that I anticipate a sell into the next target, the -27% extension of the recent swing, making the target around 0.66890. This translates to my target of 0.66900 to be perfect for the setup Midrange/H1 -I anticipate a push into the mid-level order zone clear on H4 around 0.67800 -the key daily levels thereon portend a strong area of resistance and had been used before by price to keep the pair below this specific level (check daily chart) -since we formed an order zone hereon recently, I expect price to reach to these levels around 0.67800 then push to the downside, aiming for the strong order level from which the most recent highs came from, which is around 0.67782 and very much in the vicinity of the -27% extension This is the overall trade NOTE: this is just an opinion of mine and should not be construed as financial advice. Use your own analysis to come up with your own decisions.
Short
by lovinmulika
Smart Money Concepts swing trading odyssey|Ep.12|8R long|EURUSDBack yet again with the Phase C continuation limit order entry model for swing trading, using ICT's SMC toolkit. This is again being documented as a reference for my future YouTube channel. This description took too long to write, sorry if price has moved away from where I got tagged in... So, these Phase C swing trades are proving to be a bane - the last one on Gold went sideways for about 2 weeks leading to me closing it today before inflation news with DXY showing weakness. Fed sentiment: Hawkish? The bond market says another 0.25% rate hike is likely and I think it has been priced in for a while. US inflation slowly coming down; 5% down to 4% y/y. Month on month it's not improving though and employment is only just starting to maybe drop, meaning room for another interest rate hike to tighten the economy. Trader sentiment: risk on (inflation easing + stock market rallying) On the Euro side, employment seems to be going up, and inflation is still too high. A rate hike is practically a given with the ECB having room to do it. Overall sentiment: The 0.25% rate hike seems to be baked in, and in spite of that, EURUSD continues to form a technical pattern that implies it's going higher. If the Fed doesn't make the expected rate hike, it will likely just accelerate Euro's move up. I am forecasting a technical move up more than a fundamental one. At LEAST to fill in the weekly FVG - if not breaking the last supply zone creating a new high for the year - but with the Fed expected to hold rates ~5% until possibly 2024 v.s. the pace of Europe's hikes and their stagnant GDP putting a limiter on their hikes, right now I don't see how EURUSD could rally much higher than that (but maybe this is just a lack of understanding on my part?) Technicals: W pattern formed on daily TF creating new demand zone. SMT divergence with the DXY gives me confidence that market makers won't push price lower during FOMC tomorrow. Entry: Phase C pullback into discount/50% of 4h swing low/daily bullish OB. As I said above, the SMT divs with Dollar gives me confidence to put my stop below the last 4h swing low despite news tomorrow, which could give an opportunity to scale in with bigger size, providing Euro doesn't just slip 60 pips in the blink of an eye. Exit/Terminus: mid-point of the gap (volume imbalance) on the weekly TF + old weekly high, which is an 8R trade. I plan to partial at the last supply zone which begins at ~$1.09500. Confidence: 7.5/10 for directional bias & 6/10 that they won't stop me out during FOMC tomorrow 😋. Here is the weekly chart. Notice the red box which is the volume imbalance I am using as my Terminus/DOL:
Long
by SmartMoneyConceptsOnYouTube
4 forex break of structure OB ideas for todayHi, I prepared 4 high RR positions for today, applying my order block principles and All my knowledge I gathered the last 6 months. I am not a professional, trade at your own risk, do your own research. Order block principles: 1) OB must take liquidity or have the liquidity to take. 2) OB breaks something significant 3) OB is relevant to current price action 4) OB caused imbalance (made a fair value gap) 5) OB has a liquidity pool to target Peter
Short
by peti199
USDJPY Short IdeaWe are Currently in Premium, testing a Bearish Orderblock in the form of PDA. Inside this Orderblock, we have a new orderblock from which price moved rapidly away from as well as it took out previous high, which validates the OB. Price Manipulated the Previous Highs with a long wick, making this a Smart Money Reversal. We have a lot of FVG and EQL (SSL) to fill in. As another confirmation, we expect a retracement down as we have an overextended W, which should attract the market to move downwards. If the price should reach there, I'm looking to scale off some profits at around 110.077. Two possible Scenarios, One entry (main setup), it's a lower entry so more likely to get triggered. One entry at Equilibrium (CE), which has way better Risk to Reward but is less likely to get triggered. (however, LTF created lots of imbalance inside the new OB, which could definitely get filled) --------------------------------------------------- Confirmations: - In Premium - Orderblock INSIDE bigger Orderblock - Manipulation of the High - FVG & SSL Targets - W formation Retracement --------------------------------------------------- My ONLY Concern for me is that we have a lot of News today which could impact price to move the other direction. This may fail, but at least I'm not afraid to show my risk to reward box BEFORE it happens, unlike 95% of everyone on this platform. If it fails, I still have a strong belief that these FVG and SSL level will get filled soon, and I'll still keep them as targets for future trades.
Short
by Bastianelton
Smart Money Concepts swing trading odyssey|Ep.11|11R short|GoldTesting my own Phase C continuation limit order entry model for swing trading, using ICT's SMC toolkit. Fed sentiment: Hawkish? bond yields up/possibly more hikes/USD strength Trader sentiment: risk on? (Nasdaq rally/debt ceiling raise talks/inflation easing?) Supply/Demand factors: people still in employment and spending money means demand Overall sentiment: should be bullish if not for hawkish fed and dollar strength Technicals: Gold overbought/in premium on higher timeframes, double top pattern yet to finish playing out. SMT divergence with Silver Entry: Phase C pullback into premium of 4h swing high/fair value gap. tightened up stop because swept PDH (prev day high) giving a nice potential 11R return Exit/terminus: MT of M -OB (50% of monthly bearish order block(Mean Threshhold)) Confidence: 7/10 Weekly chart: Monthly chart (see order block):
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SmartMoneyConceptsOnYouTube
4
Time to make profit on USDJPYhi every one complete pullback to the trendline with 4% profit Potential The information provided on this Page does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. this page does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold, or held by you. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisio
Short
by expay24
hello guys, I'm back sorry for not posting for too much but i was busy working and improving my trading knowledge, i basically changed some things due to commissions that were eating into my profits. This is my vision for E/U m15, again, remember that price does not have to get to the zone even if we can countertrade to get there, and so the most safe thing to do is to wait for price to enter that zone and then find a short entry. I discovered that i need only one follower to start streaming my live trading, so basically guys i just need one of u to follow me and from monday i can start live trading. have a nice weekend
Short
by tommasomariacomini