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ridethepig | NZD for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary - NZD for the Yearly Close Here we are tracking the weak points in the structure which are strategically important points in every map. They are usually protected and once broken and be rewarding with non-stop moves. The handle to track here is 0.74xx which is well placed and comes to undertaking other duties of preventing the flow back towards 0.883x. Now the early strength of this can be seen with the latest breakup, it is a monthly closing in drastic fashion - a veteran soldier ready to march. A breakdown in Dollar for 2021 is a 'good deed' for the rest of the world but actually we will cover a whole chapter around how it is the only monetary option. After a Biden victory we can expect them to rush through a digital dollar and trigger defaults, things will develop quickly so time to start paying attention for the 2021 flows now. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | NZD for FED📌 ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 27.01.2021 What is in play here? Buyers depriving shorts of their rewards and not allowing the breakdown ahead of Fed. Strategically speaking, this looks and smells a lot like a slingshot. The strong rejection points towards the Kiwi inflows after RBNZ let slip that rate cuts are unlikely. On the Fed side, dollar devaluation is still the name of the game and a dovish Powell is already widely expected. Not expecting much positivity on the recovery front, positioning is the main factor in play here and a sweep of the highs would be healthy as is the case for EURUSD. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.04.28Across the commodity block, NZD is looking the weakest and most vulnerable with negative rates entering into the picture. This looks unavoidable now and makes NZD the more preferred short across G10 crosses. The resistance is weakly protected as we enter into FED fact territory, the market was a little too long USD and I understand the need for a healthy cleanse, however, the move looks overdone here as I am not expecting any further cuts tomorrow. Equities will hate the bad news, and high beta FX will be first out of the door... last orders at the bar!? On the technical side, strong resistance is located here at the 0.605x - 0.607x region and is the one to track for those wanting to position for FED and a further leg lower in risk markets. The goal for sellers is in protecting these highs and defending any real seizure of the advance, an initial target at the mid point to pay for risk at 0.600x and an extension towards 0.592x is in play for a simple range clear with the CB event. A break below the 0.592x lows will call into question the macro slingshot target at 0.49xx.... INSANE!!! From a macro perspective as soon as your CB unlocks negative rates or foreign asset purchases its game over! You have taken on a well hidden exchange sacrifice. Smart money will exploit it, a slingshot is in play later in the year but will require another sweep of the lows via Covid panic flows into USD ... For those waiting to buy the bird from a long-term perspective, not recommended till the end game in this current leg should we pay any attention towards the development arise. Good luck all those positioning across G10 FX for FED flows, thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comment and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
23
ridethepig | NZD Macro UpdatesHere we go with a round of Macro chart updates, the decline is starting to run out of steam as we enter into support. The initial bounce does not nullify the decline we have seen over the past four years, however it wields influence with 2021 and beyond. The parallel channel we will use for reference technically to define clearly the jurisdictions on both sides. To the topside, resistance can be found at 0.661x which will attract selling interest, while support is located underneath at mid-term 0.58xx. As momentum stalls across the board, it is screaming exhaustion to the downside. Like with physics we will allow the downtrend to exhaust before continuing to create a new MT/LT picture. AUDNZD finding a floor... To put simply, I am expecting a test of 0.58xx over the coming months which will act as a buying interest for the next decade! Highly recommend jumping into the comments with your NZD long-term maps, we can open the macro conversation and create a thread for all to benefit from. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | NZD Price Dissection [Live]As we approach the 0.660x handle it is time to take profits from our shorts, well done those following from the entire process from the previous diagrams: All of this is taking place while inside the Macro swing: The radius of our flows has been secure in a wide territory. This could also be considered a base formation in a sense of the word. The major play is to the topside for 1H20 as Dollar devaluation is the underlying theme. A lack of space prevented us from reaching all the way to the topside in the macro target, so we had to briefly pause for a few zig-zag range trading formations. This is a superb live example of trading fast flows and forcing short-term moves. Good luck all those positioning in NZDUSD for the coming weeks, I hope these short-term charts have proven helpful.
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.01.17The fruits of my forecasts stretching over the short-term range, will accompany you down this thorny path of range trading, but we cannot avoid consolidation, because only painful chop can help resolve ranges. The dynamic constraints of the flows are clearly defined jurisdictions on both sides (see diagram): The tendency towards advancing further is making the retrace possible. At least for the near-term - full compensation for the flows will only be effective from the attack on 0.666/45 and what is more urgent than an attack on resistance?! An examination of buyers becoming overstretched at the highs thus gives a plus to Sellers. On the other hand, importantly, we know - our macro map for NZD is approaching the mid-game. How should we evaluate that? Is the difficulty only due to the fact that patience is hard to protect? or do other macro factors threaten us? Best of luck those adding to short-term offers inside a long-term macro flow...a mouthful. This is very advanced trading and would recommend using the flows to centralise and manoeuvre around towards the flank. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and comments rolling, so far a superb forecast of event-risk flows so far and traded live here in both AUD and NZD.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Looking at AUDNZD from 40,000ftOn the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. Unemployment overshooting may be the start of a round of good data for AUD which will keep the RBA on hold meaning markets will need to price out all of those betting on a RBA Feb rate cut. On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last meeting and see a lot of NZD shorts left that that need unwinding. Although into year-end NZD also spiking higher but rather than from good data it was with a positional squeeze into 0.66xx before running out of steam. With that in mind I see both AUD and NZD as bullish vs USD but AUD has more room to outperform if data holds: A “ Royal Flush ” for us and the Commodity Currencies. As widely mentioned yesterday, stronger AUD employment data sending AUDUSD flying towards the 0.69xx handle: I am looking to close longs at 0.695x which is still the same level in play from the larger swing into year-end: For those holding since October when we loaded the breakup we will have to wait till 2020 to clear final targets: For the AUD macro map: For the NZD macro map: As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc! Feel free to jump into the conversations in the comments with your views/charts. If we get enough interest we will have a round of Fixed Income chart updates coming for AU and NZ.
Long
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | AUDNZD Market Commentary 2019.11.29Here we are tracking further downside in the cross as NZD strength continues across the board before AUD takes the wheel in 2020. Among the commodity currencies, NZD stands out the most into year-end and those following the macro updates in Telegram and charts will know I have also been sitting long NZDCAD, with a dovish BoC and RBNZ 'hawkish' surprise there continues to be further upside: For AUDNZD flows, for the most part of 2019 the market has been heavily short NZD, and the NZD short cleansing pullback is likely to continue if regional growth and trade improves. Watching risk sentiment closely, with AUDJPY and NZDJPY coming to life intraday and with the power to drive the commodity currencies on other crosses. On the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last meeting and see a lot of NZD shorts left that that need unwinding. With that in mind I see both AUD and NZD as bullish vs USD: As previously mentioned, confidence for those betting on the topside has increased dramatically after cracking 1.0620, watch closely for follow-throughs here into 2020 after the NZD outperformance theme fades away. Best of luck those already in positions and those looking to build swing positions into 2020. ...Please remember to keep the support coming with likes and comments!
by ridethepig