CYCLE 4 | Price %Change Extension from 20W SMABTC PRICE %Δ EXTENSION FROM 20W SMA ANALYSIS
Similar to previous Analysis looking at 'Price %Change Extensions' from moving averages (see links below), we take a look at the respective relationship BTC has held with the 20W SMA over its existence.
HISTORICAL BEHAVIOUR
Observable in Prior cycles BTC has topped and bottom out at High Points and Low Point of this relationship. We can see over cycle periods the highs are sloping downward (indicating ATH of future cycles diminishing in nature is historically in line with this relationship). This is observable via the downward sloping green zone connecting cycle peaks in the BTC Price %Δ Extension from 20W SMA.
For cycle bottoms (excluding the bloodbath of cycle 0), generally we see these occur ~around the 80% Price %Δ Extension region (see the red box below).
CYCLE 3 VARIATIONS | THIS TIME WAS DIFFERENT
It is notable that Cycle 3 was the first cycle where the high and low in this relationship occurred before the price All Time Low and High of Cycle 3, and in this instance the indicator displayed more divergent behavior (suggesting price momentum is reversing) with spikes of a lower high and higher low of this relationship indicating cycle 3 ATH and ATL.
CYCLE 4 ATH TAKEAWAYS
* A revisit of the Green Zone has historically coincided with a significant top or cycle ATH with prior price cycles.
* If Cycle 3 behavior is the new norm, then a revisit of the green area may indicate price momentum reversal. This divergent behavior indicated BTC was setting the final ATH for cycle 3.
* Either scenarios may play out again in Cycle 4 and may be a usual relationship to use with confluence of other relationships to identify Price / Market timing to take final profits.
See Relevant Previous Posts Below
