Gold Wave Analysis – 14 February 2025
- Gold reversed from resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 2860.00
Gold today reversed down the resistance zone between the key resistance level 2940.00 (which formed daily Doji earlier this month), the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from January and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone will most likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing – if the price closes today near the current levels.
Given that both daily Stochastic and RSI indicators are high in the overbought areas, Gold can be expected to fall to the next support level 2860.00.
Oscillators
S&P internals and momentum show waekness These both divergences show short term weakness in the S&P 500
This does not mean that there are opportunities out there, european markets are showing strength
Even some S&P sectors still have good relative strength: AMEX:XSW AMEX:XLY AMEX:XLC
But commodities are even better, just see AMEX:DBA making new 52-week highs
META run almost finished? Just a little fun and brainstorming with higher time frame charts. Utilizing RSI, patterns, and time cycles.
Lots of similarities between now and the 2020-2021 bull run. Not to mention a lot of good data suggesting we are close to a recession at best. (Weak housing data/stocks, yield curve uninversion)
What are your thoughts?
$SPY February 14, 2025AMEX:SPY February 14, 2025
15 Minutes.
As expected, once box was broken yesterday AMEX:SPY continued to make upward movement.
For the rise 598.52 to 607.49 to 605 61.8% extension was nearly done. Once 611 is crossed we can expect some resistance around 612-614 levels.
611-612 will be a good number to short as 4SPY in 15 minutes is getting away from 200 and 100 moving averages.
If uptrend continue today, then near close short around 612 +-1 will be good for Monday SL 614.5.
At the moment there is slight oscillator divergence in 15 minutes so need some more uptrend to short.
So, for the day for the last rise from 605 to 609.94 holding 606-607 is important for 610-612 as target.
Below 606 at the moment target is 603-604 levels.
JUPUSDT Swing Long IdeaJupiter is the second largest DEX on Solana and its price has been ranging for almost 1 year.
If all of crypto is getting ready to bounce JUP looks primed to breakout of the range,
RSI is crossing above the RSI MA and midpoint,
MFI is crossing above the midpoint,
JUP has outperformed TOTAL according to MA Based relative performance,
We recently saw the largest ever volume and volume MA.
All of this makes me think JUP wants to breakout from this range soon, hopefully TOTAL and BTC will allow that to happen.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Pulls Back After RallyVertex Pharmaceuticals ended January with a big rally. Now, after a pullback, some traders may see an opportunity.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the price gap on January 31 after the FDA approved its Journavx painkiller. (It’s the first of its kind to treat pain in a unique way without addiction risks.) The stock has retraced the surge, which may appeal to dip buyers.
Second is the October 7 close of $448.60. VRTX held that level in late November and again on December 18 before gapping down. The stock is now trying to stabilize in the same location, suggesting support may remain in effect.
Next, the MACD surge in January could reflect bullish short-term momentum. Prices are also trying to hold the rising 21-day exponential moving average.
Finally, VRTX is near its 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages. That may create potential for the longer-term trend to accelerate if the short-term strength continues.
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GBPCHF Wave Analysis – 13 February 2025
- GBPCHF reversed from the resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 1.1240
GBPCHF currency pair recently reversed from the resistance zone between the powerful resistance level 1.1360, (which stopped multiple upward waves from September) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance area created the daily Doji candlesticks pattern, which stopped the previous short-term ABC correction ii from the start of January.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.1360 and the overbought daily Stochastic, GBPCHF currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.1240.
Another Shot at Breaking the Downtrend—Will This One Stick?AUD/JPY is making another attempt to break downtrend resistance dating back to the highs struck in July last year. With momentum indicators such as RSI (14) and MACD turning bullish, this attempt may prove more successful than January’s failed breakout.
The intersection of the downtrend with minor horizontal support at 96.80 looms as a key level in assessing near-term setups.
Longs could be established above it with a stop-loss order beneath, should the break hold. Targets include 97.78 and 99.10. If the breakout fails, shorts could be considered beneath, with a stop-loss placed above for protection. 95.00—where buyers have been lurking—is one potential target.
From a fundamental perspective, keep an eye on movements in US 10-year Treasury yields which have been a key driver not just for USD/JPY but also AUD/JPY recently.
Good luck!
DS
CHFJPY Wave Analysis – 12 February 2025
- CHFJPY reversed from the support area
- Likely to rise to the resistance level 170.00
CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support area located between the multi-month support level 166.70 (which has been reversing the price from last March) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line.
Given the strength of the support level 166.70 and the oversold daily Stochastic, CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 170.00 (former support from last month).
ASX 200 SPI: Buying Dips Until the Price Action Says OtherwiseAustralian ASX 200 SPI futures remain a buy-on-dips play until the price action suggests otherwise, bouncing again off channel support on Tuesday, repeating the pattern seen numerous times over the past two months.
Even though momentum indicators don’t look great, with MACD rolling over while RSI (14) remains in a modest downtrend, it’s hard to turn outright bearish unless the price breaks and closes beneath channel support.
Risk-reward doesn’t favour entering longs around these levels—unless you’re aiming for a run beyond the record highs—but moves towards the trendline would generate a decent bullish setup. Longs could be established above the level with a stop beneath for protection. 8494—the February 7 high—looms as one potential target. The record highs at 8546 is another.
If the price were to break and close beneath channel support, the bullish bias would be invalidated.
Good luck!
DS
30% Bitcoin correction to circa $72kOn the above 2 day chart price action has printed 100% gain since September. A number of reasons now exist for a bearish outlook in the near term. They include:
1) Price action failed support.
2) RSI and MFI failed support.
3) Strong bearish divergence with price action. 10 oscillators price negative divergence with price action at this time.
4) The $72k forecast is the 50% Fibonacci level.
5) What will happen to overbought alt tokens? Nothing good.
Is it possible price action continues to print higher highs like most Youtube shills are calling for? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
GBPJPY Inverse Head & Shoulders Set-UpOANDA:GBPJPY has formed the Bullish Reversal Pattern, Inverse Head & Shoulders!
Price has broken up above the Down-sloping Neckline to confirm the pattern.
Once the Break is Validated by retesting the Neckline and is Supported, the pattern could deliver a good buying opportunity around the 188.5 area to take up to the February Resistance Level and potentially further!
Fundamentally,
GBP has GDP on Thursday
**Beware of False Break creating a Bearish Trap. Watch for adequate Bullish Volume to Follow the Break and the Retest suggesting Bulls are interested!
Wen Alt Szn?BTC.D has just tested the .618 of its December 2020 long term high, December 2020 marked the beginning of the 2021 alt season. Its December 2020 long term high is the .618 from December 2016, December 2016 marked the beginning of the 2017 alt season.
BTC.D's weekly RSI has entered overbought levels while forming bearish divergence similarly to the December 2020 long term high.
Keysight Technologies Sneaks HigherMany of the biggest technology names have struggled lately, but Keysight Technologies could be attempting a breakout.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the July 2023 peak of $172.72. The provider of network-testing equipment ended January making a new 52-week high above that level, which may suggest buyers are taking control.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA in October. That may reflect a longer-term uptrend.
Third, the 8-day-exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA and MACD is rising. Those signals may reflect a shorter-term uptrend.
Finally, bullish price gaps after the last two quarterly reports may reveal improving fundamentals.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
USDJPY - Analysis and Potential Setups (Intraday- 10.02.25) Overall Trend & Context:
The OANDA:USDJPY pair is in an overall downtrend on the higher time frames and has reached highly significant support/demand levels. Lower time frame has given bullish indications, we can try to capitalize on this.
Technical Findings:
Price broke above the 200 EMA - this can act as dynamic support so watch current levels.
Demand zone was formed after sweeping internal liquidity (which resulted in an impulsive bullish break).
RSI shows overbought conditions - resulting in a pullback which is what we want to see to confirm price action (currently trading below the 50% level of the RSI)
Potential Scenarios:
Since we have seen a reaction off HTF supply zones we should wait for proper confirmations prior to entry.
If the demand fails, short positions should be considered - analysis will need to be adjusted to adapt to changing supply levels.
Contemplating a Pivot on Dell. DELLPivots, like fades are inherently more risky, but they must always be in the gameplay of any serious trader. They can be potentially very rewarding when they do eventuate and pose lost opportunity if ignored. We generally like at least five factors from five different perspectives to consider a position. Let's see how many this one has.
1. Momentum divergence (not the only one) on Jurik RSX
2. Volatility divergence on VZO plus offset
3. Cross of upper end of MIDAS envelope. Midas formula is based heavily on volumes.
4. Cross of both VZO and Ehlers Stochastic/RSI. This is not the vanilla Stochastic RSI calculation, after Ehlers rethought the indicator.
5. vWAP is now a support, but price action is not over extended beyond one sigma range.
There are more factors that can be put on the list, but this is not a competition - just a simple take on a stock. Manage your risk -trading is not gambling.
Launch on Serve Robotics. SERVWe are really liking the amalgamation of factors in this picture. Just have a look at that bullish candle just smashing through the MIDAS curve in green. US and vWAP offer resistance in tandem. Bollinger Band %PCT crossed to bullish and the other two oscillators below also threw of signs in tandem. High probability situation here if you are going long.
Lululemon is Getting Sour. LULUThis is not a perfect harmonic, far from it. The AB bounce is quite high, although mostly in wick, and BCD is only 0.786 of XAB fibtime wise. Nonetheless, vWAP cross happened with the bearish engulfing and Ehlers UltraSmoother is resistant with down going gradient. Stoch/RSI and VZO flipped a while back and %PCT has been progressively dropping and will no doubt flip soon with that bearish candle.
Resilient Silver: Charting a Bullish Path ForwardCurrently hovering just above the intersection of minor horizontal and uptrend support, with momentum indicators such as RSI (14) and MACD continuing to generate bullish signals, a potential long setup is emerging in silver.
Bulls could consider establishing longs above $31.75, with a tight stop beneath this level or the minor uptrend established on January 27. Potential targets include the February 7 high of $32.65 and $33.10.
Although the evening star pattern completed last week signalled downside risks, they failed to materialise on Friday despite tricky market conditions triggered by the US payrolls report and escalating trade tensions. Even with higher US bond yields and a stronger dollar, silver remained resilient, reinforcing the merits of the setup being considered.
Good luck!
DS