ALTS PUSH ? - After weekend this will decideAfter the weekend, a double break of the trendline and RSI will decide if we have the long awaited FINAL PUSH for the Altcoins.
This time, unlike 2018 and 2021 I think it will be selective. Not all alts are going to fly or even go up, so we will have to choose wisely.
Some of the ones I follow individually with the confirmation of this chart are #LINK, #ONDO, #XRP and #VELA.
They all depend on this chart and what happens with #BTC.
Let's follow it closely!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:XRP BIST:LINK LSE:ONDO LSE:VELA
Oscillators
Bear Flag w/Confirmed Bearish Break - EGHere I have EUR/GBP on the Daily Chart!
Price gave a Bearish Break to the Ascending Channel which confirms we are seeing a Bearish Flag.
-The Volume behind the Candle that Broke the Ascending Channel signifies that it was a Strong and Valid Break
Being a Continuation Pattern, I suspect we will see Price Retest the Break of the Ascending Channel and continue Downward!
-Looking for a retest in the ( .8430 - .8435 )
Indicators:
- Price trading Below 200 EMA
- RSI Below 50
- BBTrend Printing Strong Red Bars
- Volume showing Bears accumulating
Worse places to be than long AUD/JPY if risk is rallyingIf we’re about to see investor risk appetite improve markedly, there are worse trades to have on than long AUD/JPY.
It’s had a strong bounce today, helped initially by rising US bonds yields propelling USD/JPY higher before another bumper Australian jobs report reinforced the view the RBA may not need to cut interest rates this year.
The bounce from 96.223 has seen the pair break through the downtrend dating back to the record highs in July. With momentum indicators providing bullish signals, upside looks far easier than downside near-term. With only minor resistance at 97.621 and the 50-day moving average in between, a retest of the important 200-day moving average may be on the cards.
Ideally, it would have been nice to have caught the initial leg higher as Asian trade got underway. You can still go long here with a tight stop below the uptrend it’s been bouncing off since Monday, but a better long setup would be to either wait for a potential pullback towards 96.223, allowing for a stop to be placed below for protection. If no reversal arrives, you could wait to see whether the price can pierce 97.621, providing the opportunity to buy the break with a stop below for protection.
From a fundamental perspective, one risk is the BOJ rate decision on Friday. Even though no move is expected, and that markets are already priced for more modest rate increases over the next 12 months, traders have been super-sensitive to signs of BOJ hawkishness recently. That could spark a reversal but it should not come as a surprise.
Good luck!
DS
Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern Signals Bullish Breakout Ahead!Current Price: 141.683
Currency Pair: USDJPY
Time Frame : 1H
This USD/JPY 1-hour chart shows a clear Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, indicating a potential bullish reversal. The neckline at 141.014 has been broken, and price is now in a retest zone. A successful bounce from this area could drive the price toward the next target at 143.724, aligning with key resistance.
The RSI at 58.75 suggests room for further upward movement without being overbought. However, if the retest fails, it could be due to a weak bullish momentum or increased selling pressure, pushing the price below the neckline and invalidating the reversal. In this case, the next significant support level is at 139.675. Despite this risk, the bullish scenario remains more likely.
Bulls have the Bears by the "Neck" - AUHere I have AUD/USD on the 4Hr Chart!
Price is now using the "Neckline" or Support of the failed Head & Shoulders the Bears were unable to finish, and pushing Higher breaking through the Falling Resistance created by the Highs of the "Head" and "Right Shoulder".
Now I believe with an on-going Rate Cut cycle about to begin for the Federal Reserve, we will start to see the Bulls undo the previous Head & Shoulders Pattern one Swing High at a time!
If Price will need to find some Support before it begins to continue further Higher, this Support can be found at either:
- The High just before the Break @ .6732
or
- Retesting the Break of Falling Resistance + FVG @ ( .6720 - .6715 )
Indicators:
- RSI Above 50
- BBTrend printing Green Bars
- Volume Delta showing Bullish presence increasing
*TP1 - .67672
*TP2 - .68236
S&P 500 INDEX to 6000 before mid 2023Firstly a big thank you for taking me past the 10k likes on Tradingview. That’s a great milestone and tells me the ideas must be appreciated. If it is okay with you I’ll continue to share them freely.
As a thank you for taking my ideas past this milestone I want to share the idea that will challenge 95% of those reading. You will just not believe what is about to happen in the following 6-9 months. Use this idea as a cheat code to take you to the 5% club.
It is highly probable the market will rip higher and I’m betting on a new all time high before the middle of next year in the area of 6000. Then we can have our recession.
Still reading? Or have you gone straight to the comments for some club 95% ‘you mad bro’ comments?
What’s the evidence? There’s technical and fundamental. Firstly the technical on the above weekly chart:
1) A ‘great buy’ signal has printed. Look left.
2) Every year that ends with a ‘2’ for the last 70 years has beautiful symmetry with its roots in pi-cycle theory, but I’ll not go into that here, just accept it.
Each of the annual charts below are the last 70 years with years ending in a ‘2’ with the vertical lines approximately identifying a 12 month window.
1952 -
1962 -
1972 -
1982 -
1992 -
2002 -
2012 -
And finally 2022 - see a pattern?
The Fundamentals
1) Mid-term elections - the FED will not crash the market with up and coming mid-term elections. They never have in the above years.
2) Insider trading - The people making the decisions / your glorious leaders, they are actually buying the dip:
“U.S. House speaker Pelosi discloses trades in Apple and Microsoft”
Source: www.reuters.com
This is not an isolated event.
3) Sentiment is at the lowest it has been for 40 years! Not even 2008 comes close. People are so bearish right now that it is actually bullish.
4) The Put / Call ratio. The number of retail traders ‘short’ on the market is at levels not seen since August 2020. Remember then? The world was ending then too.
5) The ‘Put/Call’ ratio is printing bearish divergence just as it was back in August 2020. The market ripped higher afterwards.
Well that’s it - Hope you enjoyed, this took some hours of study and preparation.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: 6 to 9 months
Return: 50-80%
CHAINLINK long setup / Bulls or Bears, Tell me in CommentsBINANCE:LINKUSDT
COINBASE:LINKUSD
Hello Traders
💥Long position on LINK
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
👾The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
10.62
10.72
10.85
10.94
11.08
11.20
🔴SL:
9.99
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilizes below the trigger zone, the setup will be cancelled.
Do you like to see some magic!? / (MAGIC long setup)BINANCE:MAGICUSDT
COINBASE:MAGICUSD ]
Hello Traders
💥Long position on MAGIC
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
👾The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
0.3587
0.3683
0.3789
0.3915
🔴SL:
0.32
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilizes below the trigger zone, the setup will be cancelled.
QQQ continues to test major resistanceQQQ rallied up its resistance and tests with false breakout
Volume increases over day before yesterday as resistance is tested again
RSI trends downward and stays below SMA
QQQ has been trending downward since August and now trying to break through its major resistance. Generally September and October are not great months for the market so extra caution must be taken during this time
$SPY September 18, 2024AMEX:SPY September 18, 2024
15 Minutes
AMEX:SPY managed to make an ATH at 566.57.
Now for the rise 539.95 to 566.57 it is important to hold 560.
Below that weakness can be seen for a target 554 +-1 levels. So shorting is not worth.
If AMEX:SPY manages to hold 563-566 levels, we can see 574 +- as a target for the longs.
A retracement is on cards due to oscillator divergence. or a sideways moment between 560-566 levels.
On a daily level, if AMEX:SPY consolidated between 556-566 levels i expect 574 as initial target.
Again. Not the time for shorts for me.
Example of how to use the StochRSI indicator
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
Have a nice day today.
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The key is whether it can rise above the important section of 60672.0-61099.25.
However, if the StochRSI indicator is located below the overbought section and the state of StochRSI < StochRSI EMA continues, it is highly likely that it will eventually fall, so caution is required when trading.
If the price is maintained near the M-Signal indicator (above 59053.55) on the 1W chart, it is expected that there will be a challenge to rise above the 60672.0-61099.25 section again.
If it falls below 59053.55 this time, it is expected to fall to around 56K.
The reason is that the StochRSI indicator is likely to fall below 50.
-
We cannot tell how much the StochRSI indicator will rise or fall, but I think it tells us that there will be a change in the trend.
Therefore, the way to use the StochRSI indicator is:
- When the StochRSI indicator enters the overbought or oversold zone and a change in slope is detected
- When the StochRSI indicator intersects and is maintained with the StochRSI EMA indicator
We need to find a way to respond when the above two conditions are satisfied.
--------------------------------------------------------
(Example of how to draw and interpret a trend line)
If you look at the trend line from a short-term perspective, you can see that the low trend line and the high trend line intersect in an 'X' shape.
This shape appears when a trend change occurs.
The drawing of the trend line is
1. Low point trend line: Connect the low points when the StochRSI indicator makes the lowest point of the oversold zone.
2. High point trend line: Connect the high points when the StochRSI indicator makes the highest point of the overbought zone.
However, after making the lowest or highest point, it leaves the oversold or overbought zone and then enters the oversold or overbought zone again to make the lowest or highest point.
The intersection of the trend line drawn in this way and the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts is likely to be a period of volatility.
However, you should be able to select an important point among the support and resistance points.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
It is expected that a full-scale uptrend will begin when it rises above 29K.
The next expected range to touch is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to receive resistance in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.
We need to check the movement when this range is touched because it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting range.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-----------------
$BTC Massive Move In Anticipation of 50 Bps Rate Cut!Massive 6% move up today for Bitcoin in anticipation for a 50 bps rate cut tomorrow.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC smashed through the 50D MA and back into the BMSB.
However don’t be fooled; we are still very much in a downtrend as you see the 50MA is well below the 200MA.
We could see price break through the BMSB and reject from the 200MA in the next 48 hours.
There’s still a lot of liquidity <$50k that needs to be claimed for the next leg up.
Either way, I would not be trading leverage here.
Expect massive volatility.
SMH fails to break through resistanceSMH rallied to key resistance and failed to break through. Gapped down next trading day. Looking to make another attempt at the resistance.
SMH gapped down with volume after failing to break through
started to recover as smart money took over in later day trading
RSI is now below its SMA smoothing line
If this pattern holds trying to break through we may not see selling off with volume until we reach trend support
FPH Fisher and Paykel Monthly Possible Butterfly ZonesNo action, but FYI only
Bit early, but possible butterfly levels on FPH on Monthly chart
Indicator is climbing up into the overbought zone, but that does not mean much right now
likely to keep climbing in short to medium term, but parabolic moves are also quickly reversed as there are no real levels of support on large bars
Levels to watch...
$SPY September 17, 2024AMEX:SPY September 17, 2024
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY held on to 560 levels yesterday,
Now in 563 range.
SO, for the rise 559.9 to 563.11 must hold 561 today.
Tomorrow is D day.
No trade day today.
At the moment 554 - 557 is very strong support on downside.
They are 100 average supports in 15- and 60-minutes time frame
USD/JPY may squeeze if Fed delivers dovish disappointmentUSD/JPY looms as a prime squeeze candidate should the Fed disappoint on extremely dovish market pricing, not only likely to benefit from the probable uplift in US bond yields but also recent shifts in market positioning.
USD/JPY staged a decent reversal on Monday after slicing through the Dec 28 low of 140.273, printing a hammer candle on the daily. With RSI (14) nearing oversold territory and breaking the downtrend it’s been in since the start of September, directional risks may be shifting.
I’m not rushing into a long trade just yet, but I am keen to see whether the price holds above 140.273 today. If it does, longs could be established with a stop around 139.60 for protection. Make sure you keep positioning front of mind given how volatile the pair has been recently.
143.63 looms as a suitable trade target with only minor resistance at 141.73 located in between.
Good luck!
DS
Not chasing silver higher given Fed may disappoint Silver looks bullish, breaking through downtrend resistance last Friday with ease as traders ramped up Fed rate cuts bets. However, with over 120 basis points priced in 2024, that leaves silver vulnerable to a reversal should the Fed not deliver on those expectations. Therefore, rather than buy the break, I’d rather see what the Fed does before entering a trade.
Should the price move back towards support between 30.157 and former downtrend, it will provide a decent level to build setups around.
If the zone were to hold, you could buy with a stop below the downtrend targeting $31.754 or multi-year high of $32.50 set in May. Alternatively, if it were to reverse through the zone, you could sell with a stop above the downtrend for protection. Potential targets include the 50DMA or $27.71.
Momentum remains higher with RSI (14) and MACD generating bullish signals. However, from a fundamental perspective, if US yields push higher before or after the Fed, it may lead to a stronger dollar and renewed headwinds for silver.
Good luck!
DS
SOL Analysis — Potential for Further Downside?Solana (SOL) is showing several signals of a further correction. After SOL bounced from its core support level at $125, the price was rejected at the EMA 200.
Currently, SOL is trading below all significant exponential moving averages (EMA). Typically, this is an explicit confirmation of a downtrend. Even worse, the Stochastic RSI is in overbought territory. Plus, the K-line has crossed below the D-line—a typical signal for a potential downside move.
The Facts Summarized:
EMA 200 rejection: SOL attempted to break above the EMA 200 but was swiftly rejected.
Overbought Stochastic RSI: The overbought conditions suggest the momentum might be cooling off.
Downtrend: SOL continues to trade below its EMAs, confirming the bearish structure.
However, even in case of a move to the downside, the 125-level should serve as an essential support.
A Sign Of Hope — BTC!
While the signals for SOL are mainly bearish, it’s essential to keep an eye on Bitcoin (unsurprisingly).
If BTC continues its upward momentum early next week, this could invalidate the bearish setup for SOL and spark a new push upward. The next few days will be crucial to watch.
SMH now testing outer boundariesSMH experienced a significant rally and now showing signs of weakness and a potential reversal coming.
experienced a short lived false breakout back in Aug 22
We are now back in breakout zone again this time with more candles indicating more bulls coming in than last breakout
RSI is now trending flat as price continues to rise, signs of rsi divergence signaling reversal maybe coming
Overall SMH looks to be showing weakness in the rally and most likely turning around to sell off soon.