Iron Ore: Momentum Builds, 200DMA in SightIron ore futures have seen a decent rally over the past fortnight, rebounding from below $100 a tonne on strong volumes to take out downtrend resistance dating back to early December before going on with the move.
The price is now testing a zone that includes minor horizontal resistance at $102.25 and downtrend established in October when Chinese markets were rollicking along in peak stimulus mode. With momentum indicators firmly with the bulls, traders should be alert for a potential extension of the rally.
If we see the price push above this zone, longs could be established with a stop beneath for protection. The 200-day moving average looms as a potential target with $107.30 the next after that.
Take note of how poorly the price has traded above the 200-day moving average over recent months. As such, if the price action falters around this level again, those seeking the higher target may want to reconsider the merits of the trade.
Good luck!
DS
Oscillators
$SPY January 16, 2025AMEX:SPY January 16, 2025
15 minutes.
Yesterday gap open was held.
For the last rise from 578.97 to 592.96 AMEX:SPY retraced to 589.5 before achieving the target 594 for yesterday's move.
598.5 represents 23.6% fall for the last rise and took support at 61.8% retracement for the fall 597.74 to 575.35.
Hence it is important that AMEX:SPY holds 589 levels for upward movement.
For the extension 575 to585 to 578.35, 594 was achieved being 1.618 levels for the first rise.
At the moment we have 200 averages above 50 and 100 in 15 minutes, hence I expect AMEX:SPY to consolidate between 590 to 593 levels today for a further up movement tomorrow.
Also, we have an oscillator divergence from 592.9 to 593.9 levels
No trade day for me today.
EUR/USD Trade Plan Summary - Reversal
Entry: Place a Buy Stop at 1.04355, confirming a breakout from the falling wedge.
Stop Loss: Set at 1.01702, below the recent lower low to limit risk.
Take Profit: Target TP1 at 1.06993 and optionally TP2 at 1.09253 for extended gains.
Confirmation: Wait for a daily candle close above the wedge before activating the trade.
Risk Management: Risk 1-2% of capital and adjust position size based on the entry-to-SL distance.
Bitcoin futures eye breakout from falling wedgeBitcoin futures are threatening to break out of the falling wedge established in early December, testing resistance during Asian trade.
With RSI (14) through its downtrend and MACD set to cross over from below imminently, momentum is swinging in favour of the bulls, bolster the case for upside.
If we see a clean downtrend break, longs could be established with a tight stop beneath for protection. Depending on the risk-reward sought, potential targets include the highs set in early January or record high of $108,945.
If the price is unable to break and hold above the downtrend, it would lessen the appeal of initiating longs.
Good luck!
DS
Is HCLTECH done?
HCLTECH has had a phenomenal run from ₹12.9 in September 2001 to ₹2,012.2 earlier this month, a growth of ~15,500% in 279 months, averaging 40% annually.
But is it all about to end? 5/35 MACD, which I love to use to validate my EW count is showing a massive divergence on the weekly charts combined with a big high-volume engulfing bar concurrently taking shape. I can also count clear 5 waves on the monthly charts.
Based on my calculations, I can see two targets on the downside: 1418 and 970 .
Do share your opinions below.
Best!
EURGPB Wave Analysis 15 January 2025
- EURGPB reversed from multi-month resistance level 0.8445
- Likely to fall to support level 0.8380
EURGPB currency pair recently reversed down from the strong multi-month resistance level 0.8445, which has been steadily reversing the price from the start of September, as can be seen below.
The resistance level 0.8445 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the nearby 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downtrend from the start of August.
Given the overbought daily Stochastic, EURGPB currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.8380.
EURUSD Wave Analysis 15 January 2025
- EURUSD reversed from key support level 1.0225
- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.0425
EURUSD currency pair recently reversed up with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star (with the daily Hammer in its middle) from the key support level 1.0225, which stopped the previous impulse wave i at the end of December.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.0225 started the active short-term correction iv, which belongs to the downward impulse wave 3 from last month.
Given the bullish divergence on the daily RSI indicator, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.0425, which stopped the previous waves ii and (ii).
HBARUSDT
The purple support zone within the price range of $0.232 has been tested multiple times so far. If this support area is breached, we expect the bearish trend to continue towards lower levels.
Upon closer examination, we observe that the resistance zone at $0.3484 has not yet been tested, and the momentum of the bearish trend has been stronger. Once the purple support zone is consumed, the bearish scenario will be further confirmed.
What’s your opinion?
GBPAUD BUTTERFLY PATTERN Harmonic Pattern Trading Strategy:
1. Combine patterns with 2-3 confirmations (e.g., MA, BB, RSI, Stoch) for increased accuracy.
2. Implement proper risk management.
3. Limit exposure to 3% of capital per trade.
4. Exercise caution: Not every Harmonic Pattern presents a good trading opportunity.
5. Conduct thorough diligence and analysis before trading.
Disciplined approach = Enhanced edge.
FTSE 100 futures: Buy the dip for resistance retest?FTSE futures continue to coil in a triangle pattern dating back nearly a year. While that suggests we may eventually see a decisive break at some point, today’s setup looks at playing the existing range.
The price has been well supported on dips towards and through 8200 recently, bouncing on four consecutive occasions.
Considering the price action, one setup to consider would be to buy above this level with a stop beneath Tuesday’s low for protection.
Despite recent weakness, momentum indicators like RSI (14) and MACD continue to trend higher, making the preference to buy dips over selling rips.
The January 9 high is one potential target, another triangle resistance located just below 8400.
Good luck!
DS
HBAR likely to break outta flag as it breaks stochrsi resistanceNotice the yellow descending trendline on the stoch rsi indicator, we can see this line held resistance fr quite some time but stochrsi is now finally braking above t while price action has simultaneously closed the previous candle with the body poking above the top trendline and now the current daily candle looks like it will hold that trendline as solid support and potential even act as the breakout confirmation candle. Probability is high the breakout will be confirmed in the next few days *not financial advice*
S&P 500: Recent ventures below 5900 have not last longRecent ventures below 5900 have not last long, as demonstrated by the string of long downside wicks on the dailies in November and December. With a pin candle printing Monday following a bounce off 5808, a close above 5900 on Tuesday would generate a bullish setup heading into Wednesday’s inflation report.
If the price can push through 5900, longs could be established above with a tight stop beneath for protection. The 50-day moving average and downtrend running from the record highs are two potential targets.
Of note, RSI (14) has broken its downtrend, hinting bearish momentum may be starting to shift, although the signal is yet to be confirmed by MACD which continues to trend lower.
Good luck!
DS
Dollar Vs INR: Dollar clearly Overbought as of now. Dollar Vs Rupee:
Dollar is at 87. Major breakout from the zone but one interesting point to note is the RSI. Relative Strength Index is above 90. Near 91 in fact. These are unsustainably overbought levels. We will see a proper deep correction there sooner than later. Once the Dollar starts to correct, Nifty will not remain bearish.
Anyone who understand RSI will tell you that Dollar is at unsustainable levels. India is the least effected compared to other currencies of emerging markets as well as developed nations. It is in the zone where sustaining itself that high will soon be impossible. That's why in the earlier message. I have written 1 to 4 weeks more pain for Indian markets.
Much also depends on policy announcements of Trump as he takes power. Back Channel diplomacy to avert further damage to India Inc., Might have already started...keeping my fingers crossed. Unreal times ahead. Long Term Vision For India looks unharmed. The dust will start settling in the next few weeks. We can expect dust to settle fully by end of this quarter. After which Bull run can recommence in my opinion.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
NAS100USDNow on my recent analysis for S&P500, we looking for bears, however here we may be having a bullish flag or compression continuation pattern. If my wave count is correct, then based on historical pullbacks on this chart, we may be correct with the continuation pattern which should pull back towards the 0.5 Fib area. Safer to still look for selling opportunities as currently we have a lowe new low, after breaking the price marked/indicated in blue on the chart/annotation.
Progressive Corp Progressively Degrading. PGRThere is a confirmation of short enter with break of the most recent lows. Fibs are indicative of some of the goals. I've decided to bring this example forward, as it is evident how a pure indicator based approach would be detrimental. In this case, you would thing the position in building stochastically and volatility wise giving a false sense of a likely long. Always consider price action beyond the pure mechanical indicator based approach, which are almost always of the lagging variety.