CVNA down to $88 by June ‘25Clear break of trend on weekly and monthly, repeating exact same pattern as the 2021 sell down when it was headed towards bankruptcy.
Oscillators
USD/JPY: Signs of Exhaustion Amid Yield and RSI DivergenceWhile USD/JPY remains strongly correlated with yields in the belly of the US Treasury curve, that’s not translated to explosive upside recently, a noticeable departure from the trend seen in previous months where rising yields saw dollar-yen rip higher.
With the pair unable to hold gains despite the blowout nonfarm payrolls report last Friday, the price action hints of fatigue following the substantial bullish run from the September lows. The inability to follow US Treasury yields higher may also be a sign carry trade flows may be slowing or even stalling.
RSI (14) has diverged from price over the past month, and with MACD generating a fresh bearish signal, it points to waning bullish momentum, potentially increasing the risk we may see some form of bearish reversal.
With dips below 157 bought over the calendar turn, the risk-reward of going short around current levels does not screen as compelling, suggesting those considering bearish trades may want to wait for a potential retest of Friday’s high of 158.88 before initiating trades.
If the price were to be rejected again at this level, it would generate a decent setup, allowing for shorts to be established beneath the level with a tight stop above for protection. 155.89 would be a potential trade target.
ARBUSDTHi guys
The main trend is downward. We have not yet received confirmation of a trend change and the bullish outlook is very weak for now.
But on the daily and four-hour time frames, we have a positive RSI divergence.
And provided that the downward trend line is broken and the resistance range of $0.893 is consumed, the possibility of the continuation of the upward trend is strengthened.
What do you think?
Another chance to convert ETH into KASPA at a discount?Been monitoring this chart since 25th December 2025 waiting for a second chance to convert even more ETH into KASPA for cheap.
Measured move in confluence with the bottom yellow solid support line as shown.
Likely if KAS falls below the dashed yellow line vs ETH.
Duo-Reversal Patterns Show USDCAD Rally "Hanging By A Thread"Price has rallied quite a bit for OANDA:USDCAD since its last visit of the Rising Support @ 1.34189 and we currently see Price showing quite a bit of exhaustion at the March 2020 Highs @ 1.44664!
This exhaustion comes in two Reversal Patterns:
Advance Block - 3 Candlestick Reversal Pattern
+ (Bearish Confirmation Candle)
Hanging Man - Single Doji Reversal Candlestick Pattern
Both these Reversal Candlestick Patterns and RSI in Oversold territory, spell possible trouble for Bulls in which signaling Bears could potentially overcome and Push Price Down!
This suspected drop in Price could be a Retracement to Previous Structure of Past Resistance @ (1.39775 - 1.38784 ) which happens to land right in the 50% - Golden Ratio Fibonacci Zone.
Fundamentally, USD and CAD both last week showed flying colors when it came to their Employment and Unemployment Results both showing an Increase in Work and Lowering in Jobless. This week will be news heavy for USD with:
Core PPI/PPI - Tuesday
Core CPI/CPI - Wednesday
Core Retail Sales/Retail Sales/ Unemployment Claims - Thursday
If overall week results are negative, we could see USD lose all strength and CAD take the stage!
January 2024 technicals are almost matching January 2025Currently, it looks like the current january technicals are lining up to the january 2024 technicals. There was a 20 percent correction before the pump.
This aligns with my previous analysis that we will have a needed correction before next move up. We still haven't has a 20% correction since the manipilation of the trump pump from nov 4th
Restesting ~93.7Clear divergence on 15 min rsi with last one within zone, so expecting a short correction
GOLD - we reached strong resistance, time for correctionHi guys, with our previous great analysis on GOLD we are coming back at it.
Currently the price has reached a strong key resistance level at 2680 mark.
The RSI is sitting in very overbought levels on 1H and 4H time frames
Currently we would be targeting the strong demand zone at 2620 area.
Entry: 2680
Target 2620
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
COSTCO - Time to break above and beyond the All time HighHi guys , today we are going to overview one of the retail giants COSTCO.
Fundamentals :
Revenue Growth and Profitability :
Consistent Revenue Growth: Costco has demonstrated steady revenue growth, driven by an expanding membership base, increased same-store sales, and international expansion.
Profit Margins: While Costco operates with low gross margins due to its focus on low pricing, its operating margins benefit significantly from recurring membership income. This structure ensures financial stability even in competitive environments.
Financial Health:
Balance Sheet Strength: Costco has a strong balance sheet with manageable debt levels and ample liquidity. Its ability to generate robust free cash flow supports both operations and shareholder returns.
Dividend Growth: Costco pays a reliable dividend, which has seen consistent growth over the years. Additionally, the company occasionally issues special dividends, highlighting its commitment to returning value to shareholders
Valuation Metrics:
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Costco often trades at a premium valuation compared to peers due to its consistent performance and strong brand equity.
Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: Reflecting its robust revenue generation capabilities, Costco’s P/S ratio is higher than the retail industry average but supported by predictable growth.
And some potential risks : Thin Margins: Costco’s low-margin strategy leaves little room for error, and rising costs (e.g., labor, logistics) could pressure profitability.
Economic Sensitivity: While generally resilient, Costco could face challenges if economic conditions significantly impact discretionary spending or if competition intensifies.
Foreign Exchange Risk: With international operations, Costco is exposed to currency fluctuations that could affect earnings.
Technical analysis : The company has been running on a very healthy uptrend throughought 2024 and has had 4 green earning seasons which gives a positive bullish trend conversion,with analysists focusing on another green earnings in their Q4 report this gives us the necessary confirmations for a up-trend:
Entry has been made at : 921
Target will be above the ATH : 1030
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
GOLD XAUUSD soon to the moon ?Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading around $2,670 per ounce, approaching its all-time high of $2,726. Analysts, including those from Goldman Sachs, forecast that gold prices could reach $2,700 by early 2025, driven by factors such as anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts and increased central bank purchases. Given this context, an upward target of $2,680 appears attainable in the near term for more see our chart
Recovering on Morgan Stanley. MSCross of both MIDAS and Ehler's US line, with upgoing momentum and suspect B wave formation. Stochastic and volatility factors are both upgoing.
Not financial advice, do your own research.
Drop on ServiceNow Inc on the Radar. NOWA five wave Elliott impulse appearing to be reaching conclusion. There is a cross of Ehler's Smoother, and Stochastic and volatility zone indicators have already turned. This is a less reliable picture, as the momentum only appears to be growing. It is prudent to stay mindful of the fact that no confirmatory levels have been crossed.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green or purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line.
Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis.
Professionally, we are big fans of any indicators from Jurik, De Mark and Ehlers, which we use in addendum in analysis prior to putting down positions.
We prefer a combination of at least four technical factors to favor a particular stance. A stance is never decided by this constellation, rather the constellation merely confirms the stance.
Trading is a true one man sport. No single confluence of indicators is truly good enough, and a professional trader's sense must be developed through a lot of hard work and over a significant period of time. Good luck out there and stay safe.
Downward for Exxon Mobil. XOMPicture is highly suggestive of an Elliott downward impulse, with wave 5 remaining. Momentum is certainly building, indicators are about to turn.
The narrow price action in the most recent candles are highly suspect for a wave 4 in the undergoing impulse. Fibtime is not excluding the possibility of Wave 5 yet.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green or purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line.
Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis.
Professionally, we are big fans of any indicators from Jurik, De Mark and Ehlers, which we use in addendum in analysis prior to putting down positions.
We prefer a combination of at least four technical factors to favor a particular stance. A stance is never decided by this constellation, rather the constellation merely confirms the stance.
Trading is a true one man sport. No single confluence of indicators is truly good enough, and a professional trader's sense must be developed through a lot of hard work and over a significant period of time. Good luck out there and stay safe.
Bullish on Walmart. WMTThere is a squeeze developing on this stock, whether you look at Bollinger Bands or the Band formed by the upper and lower MIDAS curves. If a move is imminent, it is more likely to the upside given the stochastics and volatility indicators. This is certainly supported by increase. One major worrying equation is the progressively dropping volumes as the peaks progress.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green or purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line.
Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis.
Professionally, we are big fans of any indicators from Jurik, De Mark and Ehlers, which we use in addendum in analysis prior to putting down positions.
We prefer a combination of at least four technical factors to favor a particular stance. A stance is never decided by this constellation, rather the constellation merely confirms the stance.
Trading is a true one man sport. No single confluence of indicators is truly good enough, and a professional trader's sense must be developed through a lot of hard work and over a significant period of time. Good luck out there and stay safe.
Bullish on UnitedHealth Group. UNHMajor confluence of factors here to suggest a bullish bias. MIDAS curve cross shortly after Ehrler's Smoother cross. Suspect B Wave start in a flat zigzag. Ehrler's stochastic and VZO remain bullish, yet less convincingly.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green or purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line.
Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis.
Professionally, we are big fans of any indicators from Jurik, De Mark and Ehlers, which we use in addendum in analysis prior to putting down positions.
We prefer a combination of at least four technical factors to favor a particular stance. A stance is never decided by this constellation, rather the constellation merely confirms the stance.
Trading is a true one man sport. No single confluence of indicators is truly good enough, and a professional trader's sense must be developed through a lot of hard work and over a significant period of time. Good luck out there and stay safe.
FRE Mean Reversion ShortRally has moved to range-bound market on weekly chart since September 24. RSI near 70 on the daily, and although MACD looks slightly bullish, volume behind this latest move towards the upper channel line doesn't seem strong enough.
Short position near channel line with a tight stop (c. 1.0x ATR). Target is lower channel line, and if breakout to the lower side succeeds, until the next strong support at 30.7
Home Depot Could Be StaggeringHome Depot fell sharply last month as the Federal Reserve gave hawkish signals, and some traders may expect further downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the November 19 low of $399.36. HD knifed below that level on December 18 and has stayed there since. Making a lower high under its previous trough may suggest the stock’s uptrend has ended.
Next is the price zone around the lows of late October and early November. The home-improvement chain has also remained below its 8-day exponential moving average (EMA). This contrasts with early November, when it closed above the 8-day EMA once and then broke through it. Is it consolidating before continuing lower?
Finally, MACD has been falling. It made a lower high in early December when prices made a higher high. That kind of bearish divergence may signal a reversal
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SDL NZ On medium to long term buy watchlistCurrently in a restructure, small cap stock with good fundamentals i.e. profitable and current ration of 2.0
is a software based company so has the ability to scale quickly without large investment
Will be eyeing up a position around $0.42, with first target around $1.50 and possible exit around $2.45
This is a monthly chart so is a long term trade...
Option B could be sell enough to get original money back at $1.50 and reinvest elsewhere while holding the rest till $2.45 to cash in
Buy in AdobeAfter several corrections in Adobe's price and a punishment from investors after its quarterly report, Zone 1 and Zone 2 buying are interesting under the company's fundamentals.
An oversold RSI, price below the moving averages and in areas that could function as support, give us an opportunity for revaluation in the medium term.
On the fundamental side, its revenues and EPS continue to rise and with a projection to continue growing, Is there any doubt whether or not this company should be bought?
Sentiment Cycle Indicator PerformanceHere is the performance overview of my custom Sentiment Cycle Indicator. This indicator is a combination of several elements, carefully designed to detect and track market sentiment effectively.
• When the background is green, it indicates the market is bullish.
• When the background is red, it signals bearish market conditions.
• If there is no background, it means the market is sideways, often due to low volume. It
won't generate any signal.
This helps you avoid taking unnecessary trades and prevents overtrading.
Let’s take a look at the current scenario:
On the most recent chart, the first signal appeared at 15:30, showing a clear rejection from the 11,719 level. Before that, the market was sideways, as indicated by the absence of background coloring. This makes it easy to identify where the market is heading without relying on multiple tools.
For example:
• During a red zone, you can confidently take a short trade when the first sell signal appears and hold it. A second sell signal may also be a valid entry point, but it’s better to avoid taking trades on the third signal to reduce risk.
• Similarly, during a green zone, the indicator beautifully captures bullish momentum. In one instance, it successfully tracked a rally of 3,500 points, showcasing its power in identifying strong trends.
This indicator not only helps you capture market sentiment but also clearly signals when there is no actionable sentiment, allowing you to stay out of choppy or low-volume conditions.
This is the real strength of my Sentiment Cycle Indicator—it simplifies decision-making and enhances your trading precision by focusing on actionable trends and avoiding unnecessary trades.
Lockheed Martin - Extremely oversold - Very high potential aheadHi guys we are looking into one of the Defence Giants in the U.S.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) stands out as a leader in the aerospace and defense industry, offering a compelling investment opportunity for those seeking stability and long-term growth. The company benefits from a robust pipeline of government contracts, providing consistent revenue and resilience against market volatility. Its focus on cutting-edge technologies, including hypersonic systems, missile defense, and space exploration, ensures a competitive edge and positions it well for future growth.
Lockheed Martin's commitment to innovation and operational efficiency has driven strong financial performance, with reliable cash flow supporting shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks. As global defense budgets remain strong, LMT is poised to capitalize on increased demand for advanced defense and aerospace solutions, making it an attractive choice for investors.
Currently as we can see the price has been extremely oversold and is currently sitting very low in the RSI level - 1H,4H and 1D time frames.
I believe there is a lot of potential to be collected here, and a great Q4 earnings can help boost that possiblity!
Entry: 467
Target 1: 495
Target 2: 530
Target 3: 577
Target 4: 630
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
Ethereum - bearish divergence alert - Dec 19th, 2024** Trigger warning - the following post may cause skin irritation and involuntary expletives **
The entire market is bullish on Ethereum.
All of social media is bullish on Ethereum.
The Motley Fool is even bullish on Ethereum (Huge red flag!!)
“Ethereum looks undervalued relative to its potential”
source:
www.fool.com
=====================================================
The TA:
Your only source of news should be the chart. The chart has a headline for you to read:
“Strongest bearish divergence print since the 90% and 80% crashes of 2018 and 2021”
Yes, the same specific settings used to track market pivots with divergence on Ethereum price action has printed once more.
On the above 8 day chart price action prints negative divergence with multiple oscillators over an 80 day period. The bear flag forecasts price action to correct until $700.
If you’re bullish on price action you have to reason why… why is this time different?
(Trump said... yes, would never mislead that one)
If you’re neutral on price action and considering a long entry, look left, is now that moment?
If you’re bearish on price action, well then you’re in poor company and public enemy number one. Welcome to my world!
Is it possible price action continues to rise? Sure! We’re in a bull market, din’t you get the memo?
Is it probable? No.
Ww
