Oscillators
ALEPHIUM PLAN FOR FIRST PART OF SUMMER Hi everyone, i know i haven't posted any ideas in a very long time but i decided to do this again, this time however there will be at least 5 new ideas every week.
Today's idea is about Alephium.
As we can see Alephium just completed a 6 month long Elliot Wave Cycle which brought the price from $0.414 so $3.829 ( +2500%) followed by a retracement back to $1.476 (-60%).
The A, B and C waves formed a Zig-Zag Corrective Wave (each one with it's subdivision 1-5, a-c, 1-5) and the recent formed leg up is in my opinion a X wave which will lead to another Corrective Wave which cold be a Flat, Triangle or another Zig-Zag, together forming a Complex Corrective Wave. Judging by the RSI oscillator it looks like it wants to go up or at least consolidate and keep the price in an accumulation zone (medium bullish divergence) until BITCOIN gets to a new HH and takes the last top as a support (altcoin season). I think that in order for an accumulation zone to form we should expect to see a Regular Flat where waves B and C will retrace and end near the top and end of wave A. However, I won't be surprised if the price will go a bit lower (another Zig-Zag or a Descending Triangle) because BITCOIN just started pumping again and we know that only a few altcoins perform well when BITCOIN pumps.
I hope this idea will give you a good perspective for the following month!
TON Coin ! Correction ?Toncoin is full of news and events on this project's platform
Weakness of the uptrend can be observed due to decreasing volume and rising price. The uptrend line, which has moved less and less upwards each time it has been hit, indicates that we can expect a correction. However, once our uptrend line is broken and we consolidate below the $6 Range (daily candle closes),
And if you pay attention to RSI the line has a downward trend and this indicator also confirms that we can have a correction
Now if this happens, our first target could be the $5.59 Range, then the $(4.8 - 4.59) zone.
And if our uptrend line throws the price upwards, we can expect the $(7.5 - 7.88) Range to be broken, in which case our targets could be $10.12 and then $13.58.
Please note that the confirmation of the zone is the daily candle close.
And know that this is my analysis and is not financial advice at all, there is no 100% in the financial market.
I would be happy to hear your opinion as well?
CRUDE OIL (CL): Weak Momentum Likely to Persist?Assalamualaikum wbt and Good Day to fellow traders!
From my rather simplistic view, the overall two-hour time frame (TF2hr) chart seems to indicate that the prices for WTI Light Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ) could go further south at least for the time being.
The further potential weakness is being reinforced by the significant key moving averages (in this case Exponential Moving Averages or EMAs ) - the EMA50 (blue line) and EMA200 (amber line) - in which the Black Gold sits below those lines since April 17, 2024.
Despite several rebound attempts, the commodity has continued to slide downwards making some notable Lower Lows and Lower Highs until recently last Friday while trading range-bound in between.
In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also flashed a cautious sell signal last Friday following a cross over.
On top of that, the obvious rejection at the 76.03-76.30 key level could possibly suggest that the bearish momentum is still in play.
However, a bullish reversal may occur should the MACD crossover take place above the 0 line with the help of a significant volume, as well as the two EMAs crossing up.
Wallahu a'lam.
#cl #crudeoil #wti #blackgold #exponentialmovingaverage #ema #macd
MATIC Nears Crucial Support Level: Key Insights and Triggers🔍MATIC (Polygon) is approaching a critical support level. Here's an in-depth analysis to guide your trading decisions.
📆Coin of the Day: MATIC (Polygon)
About the Project
MATIC is a layer-2 scaling solution for Ethereum, known for its low transaction fees and extensive use in the DeFi space.
🧩Technical Analysis
4-Hour Timeframe
This analysis focuses on futures trading, highlighting multiple scenarios.
📉Support and Resistance: The price has reached the bottom of its consolidation range, with key support at $0.6449. A confirmed break below this level could signal further downside. The immediate resistance levels are at $0.6676 and $0.7491.
📈Bullish Scenario: If MATIC can hold above the $0.6449 support level and Bitcoin stabilizes, a potential bounce could occur. Key resistance levels to watch are $0.6676 and $0.7491. A break above these levels would indicate renewed bullish momentum.
📉Bearish Scenario: Bitcoin has recently been rejected from a significant supply zone, contributing to MATIC's decline. A break below $0.6449, confirmed by a retest, could lead to further downside, with the next support level at $0.5057.
📊Volume and RSI: Volume has been decreasing overall, except for a significant sell-off candle recently. The RSI has broken down, indicating bearish momentum. Key RSI levels to watch are 24.46 and 23.29 for potential oversold conditions.
💡Key Triggers: Monitor the price action around the $0.6449 support level. A break and retest of this level could provide a clear signal for further downside. Conversely, a hold above this level, coupled with stabilization in Bitcoin, could trigger a potential bounce.
👨💻Trading Positions
Long Position
Entry Trigger: Hold above $0.6449 with confirmation from RSI and volume.
Strategy: Open a position on the hold of this level, targeting $0.6676 and $0.7491. Use tight stop-loss orders to manage risk.
Short Position
Entry Trigger: Break and retest below $0.6449.
Strategy: Open a position if the price confirms a break below this level, targeting $0.5057. Adjust stop-loss orders accordingly.
📝MATIC is testing a crucial support level, with significant implications for future price movements. Traders should monitor key levels and triggers for potential entries and exits. Volume and RSI indicate bearish momentum, while support at $0.6449 is pivotal.
🧠💼Always remember the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Stick to strict capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, ensuring an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
🫶If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
TOTAL2 - Looking at the RSI I expect a continuation pattern on the Weekly RSI with the circle being the comparable point in the bull run.
The RSI shows a large W pattern and we are experiencing the bullish right arm of the W
I think we are bullish until next year easily
This is the altcoin market cap
XAUUSD - Gold (Make or Break moment)There is a lot of selling pressure for gold, with RSI signaling overbought conditions on every higher time frame. Undoubtedly bullish, however, it may have reached a peak. In my opinion, a lot of consolidation is required before pushing for another ATH. Currently, a double top appears to be in the making, with a swing rejection candle on the daily, with a hanging man candle in formation. Bear trap? Possible. However, considering there is a possible DXY breakout to the upside, as EURUSD breaks down with impending interest rates cuts in June for the EURO, my money is on the dollar. Consequently, if gold begins to retrace back to the 2300 region for a "double bottom" bounce, the ensuing move upward may begin to appear more as the right shoulder with a sequential move to the 2200 region. Moving averages are quickly catching up. Conversely, there is arguably a "cup and handle" with ~2550 target. However, this may be perceived as invalidated by many with the rejection wick on the daily. Trade carefully.
BTC Nears Critical Supply Zone: Key Levels and Triggers to Watch🔍Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a crucial supply zone. Here's an in-depth analysis to guide your trading decisions.
📆Coin of the Day: BTC (Bitcoin)
Bitcoin is the pioneering cryptocurrency, known for its decentralized nature and wide acceptance as a store of value and medium of exchange.
🧩Technical Analysis
4-Hour Timeframe
This analysis focuses on futures trading, highlighting multiple scenarios.
📉Support and Resistance: The price is currently at the edge of a significant supply zone, which spans from 71,677 to 73,305. This zone, identified in the 1-day timeframe, has historically been a strong resistance area. A confirmed break and hold above 70,486, followed by a pullback, could signal a potential move higher.
📈Bullish Scenario: The 25 and 99-period SMAs are aligned with the current uptrend, suggesting bullish momentum. If the price breaks and sustains above 70,486 and then successfully pulls back, the next key level to watch is the top of the supply zone at 73,305.
📉Bearish Scenario: If the supply zone holds, preventing the price from moving higher, a significant downside move could ensue. The immediate support levels to monitor are at 70,486 and below at 68,984.
📊Volume and Moving Averages: A notable increase in volume has been observed as BTC interacts with the supply zone, indicating a battle between buyers and sellers. The 25 and 99-period SMAs support the bullish case, potentially bringing further upward momentum into the market.
💡Key Triggers and RSI: Pay attention to the RSI levels, which could provide additional confirmation for potential entries and exits. RSI triggers are noted at 74.51, 63.09, and 55.29, indicating different phases of momentum.
👨💻Trading Positions
Long Position
Entry Trigger: Break and sustain above 70,486, with confirmation after a pullback.
Strategy: Open a position on the break of these levels, targeting the top of the supply zone at 73,305. Use tight stop-loss orders to manage risk.
Short Position
Entry Trigger: Rejection from the supply zone, particularly if price fails to sustain above 70,486.
Strategy: Open a position if the price shows strong rejection from the supply zone, targeting lower support levels such as 68,984. Adjust stop-loss orders accordingly.
📝BTC is testing a critical supply zone, with significant implications for future price movements. Traders should monitor breaks of key levels to open positions. Volume and moving averages indicate potential bullish momentum, while the RSI provides additional confirmation.
🧠💼Always remember the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Stick to strict capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, ensuring an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
🫶If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
NIFTY 50 in 2024 to begin a 40%+ correction?The Nifty 50, also known as the S&P CNX Nifty 50, is a widely followed stock market index in India. It represents the performance of the top 50 companies listed on the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) by market capitalisation.
Since the market lows of March 2020 the index has exploded 180%. If you’v never experienced one before, this is what a market melt up looks like.
A number of reasons now exist to be incredibly cautious. A long position today may not see a profitable return for almost 6 years. How can we know this?
Look left.
On the above 2 week chart (as well as weekly time frame and lower) a hanging man candle prints. It is a textbook example. Market participants are exhausted.
The bearish divergence is also significant. Eight oscillators currently print negative divergence with price action. This is not the first time this has happened.
2015 and 2018, 25% correction 2 years to break even.
2008, 60% correction 6 years to break even.
Is it possible price action continues upwards? For sure.
It it probable? No. After a 180% rally?
Ww
ADOBE: What is the stock doing before the Q2 earnings Adobe's stock price has been declining over the past month, currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, with the chart drawing a "death cross" pattern around mid-April, which further confirms the bearish sentiment. The stock now trades at a 25% discount compared to the highs earlier this year.
The Volume Oscillator currently stands at 1.3%, suggesting some buying interest remains, but it's weakening compared to recent trading volume. This could signal a potential reversal, but the downtrend remains strong, with the neutral RSI not suggesting any bullish reversal either.
Next week's Q2 earnings announcement could be a significant catalyst for Adobe. Positive earnings could potentially reverse the current downtrend, but the recent controversy surrounding Adobe's terms and conditions update could weigh on investor sentiment.
The T&Cs update has sparked concerns among users, particularly creatives worried about their creations being used to train AI models, and professionals concerned about the privacy of their data. This could potentially impact Adobe's reputation and customer base, particularly since Adobe remains relatively silent on the issue. This uncertainty adds another layer of risk to the stock in the near term.
GOLD - Bullish Parallel Channel - Bullish DivergenceTVC:GOLD has been trending in a bullish Parallel Channel for the last few weeks! Price tested the bottom of the channel and formed bullish divergence on 4 hr chart, indicating potential bullish momentum for the short term! Traders could look to trade the channel on smaller timeframes!
Double Moving Average Crossover - UBL📊 Script: UBL
📊 Sector: Alcoholic Beverages
📊 Industry: Breweries & Distilleries
Key highlights: 💡⚡
📈 Script is trading at upper band of BB and giving Breakout of it.
📈 MACD is giving crossover .
📈 Double Moving Averages are giving crossover.
📈 Right now RSI is around 68.
📈 One can go for Swing Trade.
⏱️ C.M.P 📑💰- 2035
🟢 Target 🎯🏆 - 2219
⚠️ Stoploss ☠️🚫 - 1950
⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk & Reward Ratio.
✅Like and follow to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes.
Eat🍜 Sleep😴 TradingView📈 Repeat 🔁
Happy learning with trading. Cheers!🥂
Moving Averages + MACD Crossover - DEVYANI 📊 Script: DEVYANI
📊 Sector: Quick Service Restaurant
📊 Industry: Hotels
Key highlights: 💡⚡
📈 Script is trading at upper band of BB and giving Breakout of it.
📈 MACD is giving crossover .
📈 Double Moving Averages are giving crossover.
📈 Right now RSI is around 70.
📈 One can go for Swing Trade.
⏱️ C.M.P 📑💰- 170
🟢 Target 🎯🏆 - 191
⚠️ Stoploss ☠️🚫 - 160
⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk & Reward Ratio.
✅Like and follow to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes.
Eat🍜 Sleep😴 TradingView📈 Repeat 🔁
Happy learning with trading. Cheers!🥂
Potential Head & Shoulders Forming! - AUHere I have AUD/USD on the 1 HR Chart!
Price so far has began to form what looks to be a Strong Reversal Pattern, Head & Shoulders!
You can see a clear Left Shoulder falling down to the Support Zone creating our "Neckline" @ .6633!
Followed by the creation of the "Head" being a rejection off the Falling Resistance back down to the "Neckline" and NOW finally to potentially finish the Right Shoulder!
Based on the first shoulder, the Resistance Zone @ ( .6671 - .6665 ) and with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level matching the height of the Left Shoulder @ .66727, I am looking for Price to hit this very spot and then show rejection pushing price back down to the Neckline for CONFIRMATION OF PATTERN!!!
INVALIDATION OF PATTERN comes in if price decides to Break and Close above .66727 and is unable to move back down!
Fundamentally, AUD had GDP come in at a .2% decrease and with heavier news for USD later this week, this idea could come to life so lets keep an eye out!!
**On Confirmation of Pattern, I will be looking for a Target Profit down at Support @ .66000
$SPY June 6, 2024AMEX:SPY June 6, 2024
15 Minutes.
As expected, 533 was done yesterday.
If we take the last sideways consolidation rise from 524.95 to 534.69, holding today 532 i have a target 538-540 levels.
However as AMEX:SPY has moved from 522.6 to 534.69 from Monday to Wednesday, i expect a sideways consolidation today before attempting to hit 538 tomorrow.
As we can see in chart AMEX:SPY is having multiple hits at channel mid, so I expect a breakout, retrace and then swift move to 538-540 tomorrow.
The moving averages are getting sorted out to be in order with 100 expected to cross 200 today.
The only negative issue is oscillator divergence which should get sorted out today.
DXYThis index may go up, the arguments are here:
Advantages
Uptrend channel
Wave 2 (ABC) completed, maybe the market will start a wave 3 of 5 if my count is correct
The price exceeds 0.38 fibo since September 2023 and this year
Price makes higher highs and lower highs
The RSI and Stoch show me oversold on a daily and weekly time frame.
If the ECB lowers interest rates tomorrow and the FED does not make changes to its policy, I can speculate on this
Cons
The COT does not show me a convergence between Hedge Funds and Institutional Funds, I need confirmation for this data.
For an invalidation price, if the price closes below 104 I think the dollar should go down against all currencies.
NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE
Where are you going dear crypto? (long term)Bitcoin finished 5 weekly wave in end of 2021 and we are in more complex forth monthly wave. So where we are?
TOTAL3 also finished 5th wave and alt coins are in corrective move (ABC) - look at elliott wave oscillator and squeeze indicator
BTC.D looks like accumulation structure. Note: I am not sure if we saw spring yet.
ratio TOTAL3/BTC looks like triple top (ratio 1 looks like strong resistence) and rising wedge with decreasing volume.
Automata Network (ATA) - Bullish divergenceOn the above weekly chart price action has corrected 95%. A number of reasons now exist for a bullish outlook, including:
1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts.
2) Regular bullish divergence.
3) What was said above is also true for the ATA-BTC pair.
Is it possible price action corrects further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6%
Timeframe for long: days
Return: Will say elsewhere
Why Trend is Not My Friend in Trading: Impact of Futures MarketsWhy Trend is Not My Friend in Trading: The Impact of Futures Markets
In trading, it's often said that the real money is in the futures markets rather than the spot markets. Futures markets offer higher leverage, greater opportunities for profit, and a unique set of dynamics that can be advantageous for informed traders. However, while it's wise to focus on futures markets for these reasons, blindly following trends within them can be misleading and risky.
The Relationship Between Futures and Spot Markets
Trends in futures markets often have opposing effects in the spot market. The direction of the spot market is frequently determined by activities in the futures markets. For example, while the spot market may show an uptrend, this is often not due to a genuine upward trend but rather a downtrend (more short than long) in the futures markets. This apparent contradiction arises because futures markets exert a powerful influence on spot prices through mechanisms such as leverage, speculation, and contract expirations.
In essence, there is no consistent trend that can be relied upon across both markets, which is why "trend is not my friend" in trading. Understanding the intricate dynamics between these markets is crucial for making informed trading decisions.
Example of Analyzing the Bitcoin Futures Markets
On November 30, 2022, during a relatively uneventful period in the cryptocurrency market, I took the opportunity to delve deeper into market analysis. I observed an intriguing pattern in the Bitcoin market, drawing from historical data and technical indicators to make future predictions
In March 2021, I noticed that BTCLONG crossed above the RSI (Relative Strength Index) 50 level at the monthly close. This event was significant, as it triggered a long squeeze beginning in April 2021 that persisted for several months. A long squeeze occurs when a heavily longed asset experiences a sharp price drop, forcing long holders to liquidate their positions, which in turn exacerbates the downward pressure.
By November 2022, I saw a similar setup but in the opposite direction. With the monthly close of November 2022, BTCSHORT was poised to cross above the RSI 50 level. Based on historical patterns, I speculated whether this would lead to a major short squeeze, similar to the long squeeze of April 2021. A short squeeze happens when a heavily shorted asset rises in price, compelling short sellers to cover their positions by buying back the asset, which drives the price even higher.
To add depth to my analysis, I drew a Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the maximum pain point for both long and short positions converged around the $31,000 price level. I mused about the possibility of a "Santa rally" – a rise in asset prices during the final week of December – potentially pushing Bitcoin to this level.
As the cryptocurrency community considered my analysis, market dynamics began to unfold. True to my prediction, a short squeeze did indeed follow the November 2022 monthly close. Bitcoin prices surged as short sellers scrambled to cover their positions, fueling a rapid increase in buying pressure. This rally propelled Bitcoin towards the $31,000 level, validating my technical analysis and highlighting the cyclical nature of market movements driven by trader psychology and technical indicators.
The short squeeze of December 2022 became a notable event in Bitcoin's price history, mirroring the long squeeze of April 2021. It served as a reminder of the importance of technical analysis and historical patterns in understanding and predicting market behavior. The anticipation of a potential Santa rally added a festive twist to market sentiment, capturing the imagination of traders and analysts alike.
In conclusion, my analysis on November 30, 2022, accurately foresaw the short squeeze that followed BTCSHORT's RSI 50 crossover. This event not only provided a profitable opportunity for those who heeded my analysis but also contributed to the broader understanding of market mechanics in the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency trading.
Now, in June 2024, a new development has emerged. For the first time on a monthly basis, both short and long positions are below the RSI 50 level. To refine our predictions, we can examine lower time frames. On weekly and daily charts, when the RSI for both short and long positions falls below 50, and the RSI for long positions is even lower than for short positions, the price typically doubles. Given that Bitcoin's current price is around $70,000, a prediction of $140,000 is not unrealistic. However, because there are too many long positions in daily time frame, I expect a drawback of about 10% to follow before the price doubles.
This new scenario presents an intriguing opportunity to apply past patterns to current market conditions, forecasting a potentially significant price movement. As the market continues to evolve, the importance of thorough analysis and historical insight remains paramount in navigating the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrency trading.
Conclusion
In the complex and highly leveraged environment of futures markets, relying solely on trends can be perilous. The volatility, speculative nature, and structural peculiarities of futures markets often create false signals and abrupt reversals. Successful trading in futures markets requires a nuanced approach that goes beyond trend analysis, incorporating risk management, understanding of market mechanics, and a keen awareness of market sentiment. By recognizing the limitations and potential pitfalls of trend-following in futures markets, traders can develop more resilient and adaptable strategies.
Copper Breaches Key Support but Tech & Fundamentals FavorableThe commodity has registered a notable pullback from last month’s record highs and has now moved below the pivotal EMA200 (black line) and 38.2% Fibonacci of this year’s advance. This pauses the bullish momentum and exposes Copper to the ascending trend line from the 2024 low and the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
However, this region could contain the correction and multiple roadblocks follow, making the downside unfriendly, while the RSI points to oversold conditions. As such, we expect Copper to find renewed vigor and push towards 5.000 and eventually new all-time highs (5.200), with the fundamentals also being supportive.
The improved supply-demand dynamics have driven this year’s rally and can fuel further strength. There may be some risks in the consumption outlook, mostly form China’s property sector and the slowdown in the pace of EV adoption, but consumption for the metal is set to increase due to the AI revolution and the clean energy transition. At the same time, things don’t look good on the supply side, with major miners slashing their output targets for the year.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Can SNAP slo-mo bounce from an earnings fall? LONGSNAP had a mild top and bottom line beat with last week's earnings and
the price fall. Given SNAP's mediocre social media interface, I think the
earnings were decent but I suppose most traders felt otherwise looking
for more. Technically on the 1H chart, price is sitting at support at the
bottom of the fair value zone. PVT and the Gaussian Awesome Oscillator
are flat line trendlines. Reversion to the mean says SNAP will rise from
current market price. I will go long. If price can rise and get to 11.5,
the volume profile's volume void suggests it could easily cross over the
mean VWAP into the 12.5 range for another leg higher. If you want my
ideas of targets and a stop loss, please comment.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part XIII - Failure At New HighPart XIII - Failure At New High
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.