📈Daily Analysis: Exploring JASMY for Profitable Trades🎯🔍Yesterday, Bitcoin formed a strong bullish candle on the daily time frame, highlighting the importance of considering all scenarios to avoid being caught off guard by market movements. One of our scenarios suggested that a false breakdown of support could lead to an upward move. This indeed happened, with Bitcoin not only rising but also breaking through the $64,400 resistance and currently consolidating.Today, we will analyze JASMY, a coin that could offer good trading opportunities in futures markets. Let's identify potential entry points for profitable trades.
⚡️JASMY is currently in an uptrend on the daily time frame, making it suitable for long positions. However, the momentum has shifted as the SMA99 has caught up with the candles, indicating the possibility of short positions since the bullish momentum has waned, allowing for potential downward movements.
✅Support and Resistance: The price is consolidating between the 0 and 0.236 Fibonacci levels, with a support zone between 0.236 and 0.382 that has held despite significant selling pressure. A descending trend line was faked out once and has now stabilized above it, yet it hasn't triggered a decisive move.
📈The key trigger for confirming the continuation of the uptrend is at 0.021070, the previous high that led to a lower low. A candle closing above this level would suggest buyers are regaining control, making it a reliable entry point for long positions.
Main Trigger: The ultimate trigger for a long position is at 0.024527. However, this level may break with a large candle, leaving little room for a logical stop-loss. Thus, trading at the 0.021070 level is preferable.
📊For a more robust confirmation, look for increasing volume in green candles. Without this, the upward trend may show weakness. Additionally, an RSI stabilization above 56.47 would confirm the re-entry of bullish momentum into the market.
📉The trigger for shorting JASMY is at 0.017195. However, given the overall bullish structure and better shorting opportunities in other coins with more pronounced downtrends, shorting JASMY is not highly recommended.
📝In summary, JASMY presents a potential for long positions, given its current uptrend in the daily time frame. The critical trigger level to watch is 0.021070, with further confirmation needed through increased trading volume and RSI stability above 56.47. While short positions are possible, the coin's overall bullish trend suggests focusing on long positions or finding other assets with stronger bearish trends for short trades. Stay vigilant and manage your risks appropriately to capitalize on the market movements effectively.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
Oscillators
NIFTY DAILY - 16/5/2024Nifty opens with positive note but bears took the market to low of the day which is 22054 with almost -160 points, into last one hour’s bulls were trying to stretch their arms and took nifty to high of the day which is 22432 level with almost up by 203 points (+0.92%).
Nifty has formed bullish candle with long lower shadow which indicates participants were buying from day lower level.
Currently RSI is around 53.
Nifty has broken the resistance of 22273 and able to hold above 22400 so next resistance can be 22556 level with support of 22286 level.
Bank Nifty levels
Support – 47305 Resistance – 48110
Today’s Advance Decline ratio of NIFTY50
Advance - 38
Decline - 12
FII Sell – 776.49 crores
DII Buy + 2127.81 crores.
⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk & Reward Ratio.
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Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes.
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Happy learning with trading. Cheers!🥂
AMD Continuation Wedge Bull FlagAmd continuation wedge momentum and bull flag can see NASDAQ:AMD Hit the 162/165 level in the short term this week and 180/190 level in the next few weeks. Add in NASDAQ:NVDA earnings and we could see a good pop . These are just technicals anything can invalidate them like fed actions or fed speak, tariffs, literally anything can invalidate them.
Silver to $50On the above monthly chart Silver has corrected over 35% since the year began. A number of reasons now exist to begin accumulation. Why?
1) A ‘incredible buy’ signal prints. See weekly chart below. Not since September 2018 has such a strong signal like this printed.
2) A strong Dragonfly DOJI candle printed with the close of July. This told us $18 was very strong support.
3) Price action is printing within a bull flag. It could be another year before a breakout is seen, however, long positions opened between $18 and $20 should see great returns with the Bull flag Flagpole measuring out at $50.
4) Lastly the monthly Gaussian Channel (below), which has recently changed to green. Prior to publishing this idea confirmation of support on the medium line as in 2009 was required.
Is it possible price action falls further? For sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade, <$20 is fantastic
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: 1 - 2 years
Return: $50 then $150 if $50 becomes support
Weekly chart
Monthly Gaussian channel
EURUSD Higher after US CPI but Policy Dynamics to WeighWednesday’s US CPI report showed a moderation in price pressures in April, following months of persistence, with headline inflation easing to 3.4% y/y and core to 3.6% y/y. Along with the miss in retail sales, markets strengthened their pricing for two rate cuts this year by the Fed, staring in September.
The greenback fell as a result, sending EURUSD to the highest levels in nearly a month. this bring the March peak in the spotlight (1.0981), but we are cautious around the ascending prospects.
US Inflation remains far from the 2% target, which along with strong economy and robust labor market have raised the bar for a Fed to pivot, leading policymakers to higher-for-longer narrative. Their European peers have made more progress on moderating price pressures and the economy struggles. As a result, the ECB looks more ready to lower rates, having hinted at a June pivot.
The monetary policy differentially is likely to cap the upside and put pressure on EURUSD. Along with overbought RSI, there is scope for a retreat towards the EMA200 (black line). Daily closes below it would shift bias to the downside and make the common currency vulnerable to the 2024 lows (1.0600).
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
BTC: Correction Over?BTC have now pierced above the (green) 50 daily SMA line, as well as above the Bollinger band, after previously getting rejected 3 times.
Note: Will need the current daily candle to close above the green 50 daily SMA line for confirmation.
Inverse head and shoulder pattern breakout indicates momentum reversal.
FG{50/15} histogram have now turned green, and is about to flip into the positive again. This is in confluence with the start of previous major run-ups during the bull market cycle.
ETHUS - Daily BullishnessThe bullish activity is evident when you take a look at the descending RSI on this daily timeframe, while the price is moving up.
This is a huge divergence and I expect the breakout to be massive
The curved pattern in green is where I expect the breakout to occur, which it is very close to.
DJT - Range bound for nowDJT has had some wild swings lately. Impressively DJT pushed deep into overbought territory on the longer duration weekly timeframe. The company is sitting on under $400K of cash and carries a debt load of nearly $6.8M!
From a technical standpoint how can we take a view of where the price might go next? With all the noise the monthly timeframe is where I think we start to get a clear view for now. It looks like price could be settling into a range, momentum cooling for a while.
Folks thinking about shorting the company may want to wait until the price gets back towards the top of the range, and consult the momentum when that happens. Otherwise, I'd be patient and let this thing settle into something recognizable.
📈ETH: Identifying Key Entry Points in Futures Trading👑🔍Today is a crucial day for altcoins, as they have reached significant support levels. The market exhibits clear signs of buyer weakness, with selling volumes substantially outpacing buying volumes. Given these conditions, short positions are more favorable. The focus of today's analysis is Ethereum (ETH), the leading asset in the DeFi space that continues to attract a large number of enthusiasts. Let's examine potential entry points for ETH in futures trading.
🔄In the last analysis, I provided two triggers for positions—one long and one short. Both positions achieved their targets if closed early as advised, resulting in profitable trades. If you entered these positions, please share your experiences in the comments; it’s gratifying to see you profit from the provided triggers. If you missed these triggers, don't worry—there are always opportunities in the market. Pay close attention to the triggers I provide to avoid missing future movements and to secure profits.
📉The chart clearly shows a downtrend for ETH, with a descending triangle pattern indicating a potential move lower. The trigger for this triangle is the support at $2,880. If a candle closes below this level, we can expect the price to move down to the $2,614 area, providing a suitable target. Confirmation of this downward momentum can be reinforced by the RSI breaking below its support at 36.59. This would allow us to confidently maintain our short positions. The volume of the candles is also crucial, as increasing selling volume could lead to a sharper decline. Thus, this trigger offers a solid short position opportunity.
📈Despite the strong selling pressure, we should always prepare for multiple scenarios and avoid being surprised by market movements. Like a general with multiple battle plans, traders should anticipate various outcomes. Although I see a higher probability of a decline, I still consider potential long triggers. Given the strong downtrend and weak buyer momentum, I would enter a long position only if a candle stabilizes above $2,964. However, the risk for this position would be half of the usual, and I would close it quickly. A more reliable long trigger would be $3,283, which becomes logical if the SMA99 moves below the candles, removing a significant dynamic resistance.
📝In conclusion, Ethereum's current market conditions favor short positions due to a clear downtrend and significant selling pressure. The primary short trigger at $2,880 and target of $2,614 offer a promising setup. However, always prepare for alternative scenarios. For potential upward movements, consider long positions with a candle close above $2,964, but manage these positions with reduced risk and quick exits. The more robust long trigger at $3,283 could provide a safer entry as market dynamics change. Stay vigilant, manage your risks, and adapt to market movements to capitalize on trading opportunities.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
There is no turn backThis analysis might look pretty crowded but actually there is simple logic behind this. After each bearish season place "Fib speed fan resistance" from top to bottom. We can observe there is no bearish scenario after we break 0.75 blue fan line. There might be red weeks but after all its end with bullish scenario. End of bullish scenario can be found from Pi Cycle Bitcoin High/Low indicator. Whenever it's "High Short MA" and "High Long MA" crosses it is very close to top. This indicator is repainting so it means we can estimate end of bull season by "Pi Cycle Bitcoin High/Low" indicator.
$SPY May 15, 2024AMEX:SPY May 15, 2024
15 Minutes
The SPY is not retracing. It is resolving divergences and aligning moving averages through sideways movement.
Now as expected once 522.75 was crossed we are back in business.
I will consider two numbers.
The rise from 515.15 to 532.582 and 520.56 to 523.82.
Maintaining a hold at 518.5 is crucial for the former, while for the latter, 522 holds significance. Currently, 522 represents the 100 averages over a 15-minute span. Therefore, with this hold, my target ranges between 524.5 and 525.5.
Hence for the day I will buy on a retrace to 522 - 522.5 levels for a target 524.5 to 525.5.
I anticipate a retracement since the last bar reached the high of the day and closed near the low of the bar. Technically, I should only buy above the high. However, I am considering a retracement buy if it occurs.
On downside if AMEX:SPY breaks 521 I will short for 518.5 being 200 averages in 15 minutes.
Even though today I have only $2 on either side, I am willing to take a trade because the box has been broken and the sideways trend has ended.
GBP/USD Testing Daily Resistance Ahead of UK Data Sterling ended the week a touch lower versus the US dollar, down -0.2% and snapping a two-week bullish phase. As we enter the second full week of May, the GBP/USD currency pair will be monitored closely ahead of Tuesday’s employment and wage data out of the UK, with technical studies indicating a bearish move could be on the table.
Long-Term Picture
Price action on the monthly chart continues to hold under resistance at $1.2715, which has been the case since late 2023. This is currently reinforced by the daily chart wrapping up the week testing channel resistance, drawn from the high of $1.2894, a descending line complemented by a horizontal resistance level at $1.2527.
While one may argue that the monthly chart is in the early stages of an uptrend, the high at $1.3142, located near the next layer of resistance at $1.3111, would likely need to be breached before a long-term uptrend can be confirmed with any conviction.
As things stand, the monthly support level at $1.2173 is viewed as the next logical longer-term downside target for GBP bears and the trend currently supports sellers (this would be strengthened were a break of $1.2173 to be seen). This is also aligned with the daily chart’s downtrend, printing clear lower lows and lower highs since pencilling in a top at $1.2894. Further supporting bears, both monthly and daily charts reveal that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is testing the underside of the 50.00 centreline, indicating possible resistance.
Short-Term Picture
From the H1 timeframe, price action concluded the week at the underside of resistance from $1.2530, set just ahead of the $1.25 handle. Space north of current resistance draws attention to prime resistance coming in from $1.2583-$1.2560. Knowing that the longer-term trend is facing southbound and daily price is testing resistance from $1.2527, H1 resistance from $1.2530 or the prime resistance at $1.2583-$1.2560 could be areas that sellers welcome this week, taking aim at $1.25, followed by H1 support from $1.2459 and perhaps $1.24.
$SPY May 14, 2024AMEX:SPY May 14, 2024
15 Minutes.
As expected, the oscillator divergence is playing out. Sideways until sorted.
Yesterday we had a gap up open and could not sustain and the first bat had close near low of bar.
We have 9,21,50 and 100 moving averages around 520 levels. 200 is about 517.
For the day if SPY opens gap up above 522.7 I do not expect it to sustain. I will watch the first 15-minute bar closely.
I still am biased towards 518-515 correction. If 519 is broken on downside.
If for any reason, we do have tight range today.
Tomorrow Wednesday we will make good few dollars.
For the day I will have a target 523.5 to 524.5 for AMEX:SPY above 522.75 with good close in 15-minute bar and on short side 517 - 518 if 519 is broken.
So, considering we have only a 2$ range on both sided i will sit out and watch today.
HG Futures, Copper's Potential Rise: Monthly, Weekly, Daily.Monthly is winding up for a big drop or huge jump.
Monthly:
Weekly:
Daily shows price winding up potentially the rest of the year. So I will look towards year end for the fireworks, that will decide if our pent up momentum will release upwards or downwards.
My gut says inflation will send it upward in the near future.
📈IOTA Analysis: Short and Long Opportunities in Focus💥🔍Following Bitcoin's recent uptick last night, the concurrent increase in Bitcoin dominance prevented most altcoins from experiencing significant price gains. Instead, many coins traded within a range, with some even witnessing a decrease in value, such as IOTA, which we'll analyze today.
📚While I haven't conducted an in-depth study on the IOTA project yet, it generally operates as a protocol for feeless and permissionless data transfer, actively functioning in this domain. I'll provide more insights into this project once I've conducted thorough research. For now, let's delve into the chart to identify potential entry points.
📈On the 4-hour timeframe, which serves as my primary analysis timeframe for futures, the downward trend is evident, indicating a bearish trajectory. Therefore, with a suitable trigger, we can consider opening short positions. However, initiating long positions on short-term shorts requires higher risk tolerance due to the market's direction.
✨Currently, we are within a support range from 0.2020 to 0.2086, and the price is consolidating within this range to determine whether buyers can maintain this support or if selling pressure will overwhelm them, causing the support to fail. Hence, we need to observe the upcoming developments. If the support breaks, we can expect a target of 0.1719, but if it holds, it may act as a bounce back to the SMA99.
📉For short positions, exert effort to open positions upon the breakdown of 0.2020 and the confirmation of a candle below this level, as this scenario could easily drive the price to 0.1719, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. However, if you're considering long positions, patience is required until the price surpasses the SMA99, followed by identifying a trigger from the candles. The nearest trigger is at 0.2328, but as we're against the trend, consider securing profits at a risk-to-reward ratio of 2 or 3 and leaving some room for a target of 0.2599.
📊Currently, the candle volumes do not provide sufficient data due to recent holidays, with low volumes followed by a sudden increase. Therefore, we need to wait for a few more candles to compare volumes effectively. RSI triggers for long positions cannot be specified due to the timeframe limitation, as price movement towards the range high can significantly alter the RSI structure, rendering the triggers meaningless. However, for short positions, you can consider the breakdown of 27.22 as confirmation.
📝In conclusion, the analysis of IOTA presents both short and long trading opportunities, contingent upon market dynamics and price movements. While the current downtrend suggests potential short positions, traders should exercise caution and wait for confirmatory triggers, particularly a breakdown below the support range of 0.2020 to 0.2086. Conversely, for long positions, patience is advised until the price surpasses the SMA99, followed by identifying suitable triggers. It's essential to maintain a disciplined approach, considering risk management strategies and closely monitoring candle volumes for a comprehensive assessment of market sentiment. As always, adaptability and readiness to adjust trading strategies in response to evolving market conditions remain paramount for successful trading endeavors.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
AEVO - Bullish divergenceOn the above 12hr chart price action has corrected 65% since late March. A number of reasons now exist to be long, including:
1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts.
2) Bullish divergence. Eight oscillators print positive divergence with price action.
3) Everything that was said above is also true for the AEVO.BTC pair (see below).
Is it possible price action can correct further after a 65% correction? Sure, sellers are like that.
Is it probable? No
Ww
Type: Trade
Risk: <= 6%
Timeframe for long: now
Return: 150% for starters
AEVO - BTC pair
EUR VS. USD, Traders @ Equilibrium?? Lets Navigate!Here I have EUR/USD on the Daily Chart!
This Spring of 2024 we can see Price of EUR/USD has kind of been "trapped" where you can see the Highs in March begin to follow a subtle Falling Resistance from the Local Resistance Zone, then CONFIRMED by the test of said trendline early April and NOW early May where we see Price has come to rest just below our Falling Resistance.
Countering that is the Rising Support from the Local Support Zone where Price tested three times in April.
Altogether, forming what looks to be a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern!!
-Basically showing us that traders are unsure where price may go, creating a point of equilibrium to where we eventually see a BREAK either BULLISH -or- BEARISH!
__ In the Event that the Symmetrical Triangle is BROKEN, I suspect we could see a potential 3%+ Price move in the direction of the BREAK given it is a TRUE BREAKOUT and not a FAKEOUT!
**This prediction sees Price testing the JULY/OCT levels of 2023 depending on which way we see the scale tip in strength between EUR and USD, making these levels our 1st Areas of TP!
Zones of Value:
July 2023 High Resistance ( 1.12298 - 1.11404 )
Local Resistance ( 1.10426 - 1.09812 )
Oct. 2023 Low Support ( 1.05167 - 1.04503 )
Local Support ( 1.07238 - 1.06601 )
Now fundamentally, DXY started this month with HOTTER than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and remarkable Manufacturing Prices but ended the first week with EXTREMELY poor Non-Farm Employment Change and Services PMI then to end last week with disappointing Unemployment Claims and UoM Consumer Sentiment
BUT
What's left to come this week may give us a clearer map to help us navigate this pair!!
USD-
PPI (Tues), CPI & Retail Sales (Wed), Unemployment Claims (Thur)
EUR-
ECB Financial Stability Review (Thur)
*More for EUR following week for news*
$SPY May 13, 2024AMEX:SPY May 13, 2024
15 Minutes.
Had a gap up on Friday.
I sold into strength.
I had a view of 522 levels with bias down as oscillator divergence.
We can see the divergence more prominent now.
Also, if you see in daily the rise is steep and 9 averages is around 512 and 21 around 508 levels.
And in one hour chart we have the 522.63 bar having close near low of bar.
All these are negative bias for me.
For the day we have 100 averages around 518.5 and 200 averages around 514 levels.
So, if 518 is broken I will short. And i will buy above 522.75 only (as per 60-minute bar pattern explained above)
We have an unfilled gap around 508.5 levels.
So, for the rise 508.56 to 522.63 if 518 is broken the short i will enter will have target 514 to 515 levels.
📈Navigating Market Restlessness: A Deep Dive into Ray Token 💵🔍Since the previous analysis, the market has exhibited a sideways movement, indicating a period of consolidation. Amidst this, the spotlight falls on Ray Token (RAY), a project garnering attention for its innovative approach within the decentralized exchange (DEX) space, operating on the Solana blockchain.
🔄In the 4-hour timeframe, we find ourselves within a range-bound scenario, with the box's ceiling at 1.7863 and the floor at 1.3569. While navigating within this range, short-term and scalp positions are viable options. However, it's essential to remain cautious, particularly on Sundays, as market volatility tends to be subdued due to reduced participation from major traders. Consequently, risk management becomes paramount to mitigate potential losses during erratic market movements.
📉The primary trigger for short positions lies at 1.3569, with the potential activation of a double bottom pattern upon breaching this short-term support. However, given the subdued market conditions, exercising patience until confirmation of a sustained break below this level is advisable. Conversely, long positions should be approached cautiously, with the primary trigger set at 1.7863, considering the significant resistance at 1.8818. Exploring alternative coins exhibiting relative strength against Bitcoin while lacking extensive overhead resistance may present more favorable long opportunities.
📈For RAY token specifically, a critical level to monitor is 2.4575, beyond which a potential bullish momentum could ensue, particularly in higher timeframes such as daily or weekly. Hence, positioning for long trades post-breakout beyond this level could yield favorable results.
📊Volume analysis indicates a diminishing volume within the box, signaling an imminent sharp movement. Therefore, staying vigilant and capitalizing on sharp price movements is advisable to maximize trading opportunities.
💎Regarding RSI triggers, oversold conditions below 42.68 could signal potential short opportunities, while overbought conditions provide favorable entry points for long positions. However, it's crucial to exercise discretion and wait for confirmation from price action, particularly in scenarios where RSI enters oversold territory, indicating a possible trend reversal.
📝In conclusion, despite the market's current state of restlessness, opportunities abound for astute traders. By employing a judicious approach, leveraging critical triggers, and remaining adaptable to evolving market conditions, traders can navigate the intricacies of the market landscape effectively, maximizing profit potential while minimizing risks.
Gold Buyers Back in the Fight; H1 Supports Call for AttentionControl changed hands in the gold space (XAU/USD) last week; buyers strengthened their grip, adding +2.5% and snapping a two-week losing streak a whisker off all-time highs of $2,431.
Technicals Favouring Buyers
Last week’s move was (technically) aided by support on the daily timeframe coming in from $2,280, a level which the Research Team were watching closely and recently noted the following (italics):
A move lower will unlikely breach bids from daily support at $2,280, which is an area buyers could look to defend as dip buyers (trend followers) attempt to enter the trend from support.
The above-mentioned support benefitted from a 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratio at $2,293. Among the Harmonic trading community, this is also referred to as an ‘alternate’ or ‘extended’ AB=CD formation. You will note that price has rallied beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio at $2,336, ending the week at $2,371, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio. Both of the aforesaid ratios are derived from the legs A-D of the AB=CD structure and tend to serve as upside targets for Harmonic traders.
Having seen the AB=CD structure complete (both upside targets achieved) and taking into consideration that the price of the yellow metal remains entrenched within an unmistakable uptrend (no matter which trend identification tool you employ, it all points to the same thing), together with the daily chart’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounding from a combination of the 50.00 centreline and trendline support (extended from the low of 19.33), this remains a buyers’ market. The caveat is the weekly chart’s RSI recently pulling back from overbought highs not seen since mid-2020, though let’s not forget that this indicator can, and often does, remain overbought for prolonged periods in trending environments.
Direction This Week?
Given the bigger picture demonstrating scope to explore higher terrain, shorter-term structure on the H1 timeframe highlights neighbouring demand at $2,347-$2,355 as a possible platform buyers may work with this week. Failure to hold here unearths two additional levels of support to consider at $2,326 and $2,344.
Bitcoin in a correction territory Bitcoin has been retreating from its all time highs. The momentum is negative, which means we can still expect more lows. The good news is that it started to form a positive momentum divergence, which basically means the acceleration towards the downtrend is slowing down, and a possible reversal is in the making. I don’t see a good timing to start a position, I would just wait until the momentum becomes positive and it goes in convergence with the trend. At this time it’s just a wait and see.