GOLD sell target in new week As of March 9, 2025, gold is trading at approximately $2,919.80 per troy ounce.
Forecasts for the upcoming week (March 10–14, 2025) suggest a potential decline in gold prices. Predictions indicate that gold may reach around $2,789 on March 12 and $2,784 on March 13, with a slight rebound to $2,825 by March 14.
Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have experienced a slight decline recently, with spot gold falling by 0.1% to $2,892.00 per ounce on March 4, 2025.
Given these projections and technical insights, setting sell targets at $2,860 and $2,850 for the upcoming week aligns with the anticipated market trend. However, it's essential to consider that gold's long-term outlook remains bullish, with forecasts predicting prices could reach $3,265 in 2025 and $3,805 in 2026.
Please note that market conditions can change rapidly, and it's advisable to stay updated with the latest analyses and forecasts before making any trading decisions.
Oscillators
Bears in Control, but Oversold Signals Hint at Squeeze RiskThe break of uptrend support dating back to the start of the artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy in early 2023 may embolden Nasdaq 100 bears to seek a far larger downside unwind than what’s already been seen. Coming on the back of last week’s disintegration of the 200DMA—and with valuations still stretched relative to historic averages while competition in the AI space from China seemingly grows by the day—the technical and fundamental ducks are lining up for such an outcome.
While recent price action has been entirely bearish, sustained directional moves rarely unfold without the occasional countertrend interruption. With RSI (14) now in oversold territory on the daily timeframe and Nasdaq 100 futures finding some buyers between minor support at 19300–19140, this may provide a platform for some form of countertrend squeeze.
If bids continue to repel bears on dips beneath 19,300, longs could be established above the level with a stop below 19140 for protection against a continuation of the prevailing bearish trend. Former uptrend support sits just below 19,900 and looms as a potential trade target. Alternatively, if the price breaks through 19,140 convincingly, bears may set their sights on support at 18,387.
Patience may be required for those considering the setup. Watching USD/JPY for signs of capital flight back into the yen may also be advisable given the skittish environment.
Good luck!
DS
Nasdaq short-term long: Bounce off Trendline, RSI DivergenceIn summary, I think that there is a good odds that Nasdaq will rebound in the short-term because it has bounced off a 2-year trendline and RSI has diverged with price. Using QQQ to gauge volume, I can also see that there is a healthy volume to support a reversal. However, take note that as of now, I will still consider this to be a corrective wave up and not a major trend reversal to the upside. Meaning, the major trend is still down.
Soybean Futures Surge: ZS, ZL, and ZM Align for a Bullish MoveI. Introduction
Soybean futures are showing a potentially strong upcoming bullish momentum, with ZS (Soybean Futures), ZL (Soybean Oil Futures), and ZM (Soybean Meal Futures) aligning in favor of an upward move. The recent introduction of Micro Ag Futures by CME Group has further enhanced trading opportunities by allowing traders to manage risk more effectively while engaging with longer-term setups such as weekly timeframes.
Currently, all three soybean-related markets are displaying bullish candlestick patterns, accompanied by strengthening demand indicators. With RSI confirming upward momentum without entering overbought territory, traders are eyeing potential opportunities. Among the three, ZM appears to be the one which will potentially provide the greatest strength, showing resilience in price action and a favorable technical setup for a high reward-to-risk trade.
II. Technical Analysis of Soybean Markets
A closer look at the price action in ZS, ZL, and ZM reveals a confluence of bullish factors:
o Candlestick Patterns:
All three markets have printed bullish weekly candlestick formations, signaling increased buying interest.
o RSI Trends:
RSI is in an uptrend across all three contracts, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
Importantly, none of them are currently in overbought conditions, suggesting further upside potential.
o Volume Considerations:
Higher volume on up moves and decreasing volume on down-moves adds credibility to the bullish bias.
III. Comparative Price Action Analysis
While all three soybean-related markets are trending higher, their relative strength varies. By comparing recent weekly price action:
o ZM (Soybean Meal Futures) stands out as the one which will potentially become the strongest performer.
Last week, ZM closed above its prior weekly open, marking a +1.40% weekly gain.
RSI is not only trending higher but is also above its average, a sign of potential continued strength.
o ZS and ZL confirm bullishness but lag slightly in relative strength when compared to ZM.
This comparative analysis suggests that while all three markets are bullish, ZM presents the most compelling trade setup in terms of technical confirmation and momentum.
IV. Trade Setup & Forward-Looking Trade Idea
Given the strong technical signals, the trade idea focuses on ZM (Soybean Meal Futures) as the primary candidate.
Proposed Trade Plan:
Direction: Long (Buy)
Entry: Buy above last week’s high at 307.6
Target: UFO resistance at 352.0
Stop Loss: Below entry at approximately 292.8 (for a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 3:1
Additionally, with the introduction of Micro Ag Futures, traders can now fine-tune position sizing, making it easier to manage risk effectively on longer-term charts like the weekly timeframe. Given the novelty of such micro contracts, here is a CME resource that could be useful to understand their characteristics such as contracts specs .
V. Risk Management & Trade Discipline
Executing a trade plan is just one part of the equation—risk management is equally critical, especially when trading larger timeframes like the weekly chart. Here are key considerations for managing risk effectively:
1. Importance of Precise Entry and Exit Levels
Entering above last week’s high (307.6) ensures confirmation of bullish momentum before taking a position.
The target at 352.0 (UFO resistance) provides a well-defined profit objective, avoiding speculation.
A stop-loss at 292.8 is strategically placed to maintain a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio, ensuring that potential losses remain controlled.
2. The Role of Stop Loss Orders & Hedging
A stop-loss prevents excessive drawdowns in case the market moves against the position.
Traders can also hedge using Micro Ag Futures to offset exposure while maintaining a bullish bias on the broader trend.
3. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure
The Micro Ag Futures contracts enable traders to scale into or out of positions without significantly increasing risk.
Position sizing should be adjusted based on account risk tolerance, ensuring no single trade overly impacts capital.
4. Adjusting for Market Volatility
Monitoring volatility using ATR (Average True Range) or other risk-adjusted indicators helps in adjusting stop-loss placement.
If volatility increases, a wider stop may be needed, but it should still align with a strong reward-to-risk structure.
Proper risk management ensures that trades are executed with discipline, preventing emotional decision-making and maximizing long-term trading consistency.
VI. Conclusion & Disclaimers
Soybean futures are showing bullishness, with ZS, ZL, and ZM aligning in favor of further upside. However, among them, ZM (Soybean Meal Futures) potentially exhibits the most reliable momentum, making it the prime candidate for a high-probability trade setup.
With bullish candlestick patterns, RSI trends confirming momentum, and volume supporting the move, traders have an opportunity to capitalize on this momentum while managing risk effectively using Micro Ag Futures.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Bitcoin ($BTC)Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC )
Disclaimer: All the information and analysis serve only as educational purposes and hence should not be regarded as investment advice.
Here is my thought on the potential weekly price action of Bitcoin, $BTC.
Overall, the market structure is still bullish with consistent formation of higher highs and higher lows since 2023 - currently forming a new higher low. A strong support area in the range of FWB:65K -$74K and a diagonal uptrend trendline are being tested. Historically, an RSI around 44 is a strong indicator of a market local bottom - current RSI is 44.89.
Since 2023, market performance in Q1 and Q4 have shown to be positive and the opposite is true for Q2 and Q4. However, the tariff imposed by the U.S. President Donald Trump towards Canada, Mexico, and China in February 2025 have sparked uncertainties in the market causing price correction and BTC ETF Spot net outflow in this quarter.
However, with the signing of the executive orders for the U.S. BTC Strategic Reserve by President Donald Trump implies increased adoption of Bitcoin by nations, not just institutions. Therefore, I firmly believe that as of the date of writing, BTC at $80K, is a good price to start scaling into the asset, with a bullish outlook for the rest of 2025 and my personal target is for BTC to reach a cycle top between $170K-$210K by the end of the year.
Invalidation: If a weekly candle closes below the diagonal trendline and the invalidation level of $49.1K, then my above view on Bitcoin will get invalidated and turn into bearish.
Crypto Total Market Cap ($TOTAL)Disclaimer: All the information and analysis serve only as educational purposes and hence should not be regarded as investment advice.
Here is my thought on the potential weekly price action of the crypto total market cap, $TOTAL.
Overall, the market structure still remains bullish by consistently creating higher highs and higher lows since 2023 - currently price is forming the higher low. Horizontal support and diagonal uptrend trendline are both still respected. Historically, an RSI around 43 indicate a market bottom - current RSI is 43.1. Also, starting 2023, the return in Q1 and Q4 have proven to be positive while Q2 and Q3 have shown the opposite.
However, the tariff announcement by the U.S. President Donald Trump to Canada, Mexico, and China in Q1 2025 have created market uncertainty and thus, leading to market pullback in this quarter. BTC and ETH Spot ETFs have experienced net outflow in February 2025 although the outflows are slowing down in the beginning of March 2025. The fear and greed index has also entered into the fear area.
On the other hand, the signing of the U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and the social media post of U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve (BTC, ETH, XRP, ADA, SOL to be specific) by President Donald Trump suggest improved future adoption of crypto not only by institutions, but also nations. For this reason, I believe that as of the date of writing, the total crypto market cap chart ( CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL ) is reaching a local bottom of around $2.5T and will remain bullish for the rest of 2025 with a target of around $7.2T-$8.7T by the end of the year.
Invalidation: If the price action shows a weekly candle close below the diagonal trendline and the previous low of $1.69T, then the above analysis will be invalidated and the crypto market may enter turn into bearish.
Mastercard Doing a 180. MAI called tops too early last time I looked at Mastercard. That's why you have stop losses.
It is a common feature I found when using Elliott, that there is frequently one subwave that is left unaccounted for, causing one to call pivot prematurily.
But calling pivot is never easy no matter, which tactic you use. Similarly, vWAP derived reversal to mean strategies often fail, as well as many of Jurik (and others -not singling anyone out) indicators that can be used for this purpose.
In my experience, it almost does not matter what you use, as long as you are the master of your system. Reading an indicator is easy, but reading what is between the lines is what creates real profit. Mechanical interpretation of squiggly lines does not lead to profits in the long run.
Eli Lilly Hit Resistance. LLYMy last idea on LLY proved to be very profitable, so here are the early signs of a pivot at hand. Technically, the indicators flipped almost in unison, MIDAS crossed. And just look at that fat bearish candle setting the tone. It is this constellation of factors that gives one confidence to profit from the plunge. Strap yourselves in.
Short Term Up For Apple. AAPLBetting on a triple drive formation here, while stock price is correcting from the last drop. None of the technical indicators have turned, yet, although they appear to be about to. This is a discretionary idea with increased risk, as there is no signal until an indicator produces one.
$SPY March 10, 2025AMEX:SPY March 10, 2025
60 Minutes
Last week we managed to hit 565 as projected.
Now we are having LL with oscillator divergence.
Also, we can see in the channel LL 566.63 is a green bar with close near top of bar.
Now from Marcg 4 to 7 AMEX:SPY struggling to cross the mid channel line.
Foe the fall 597.43 to 565.63 a retracement up to 585 is possible.
583 is 50 averages.
On Monday holding 573-573.5 I expect a move towards577 - 581 range.
Due to oscillator divergence, I will not short.
No trade day for me on Monday as long is also above 598 for the moment.
On the other side if 564 is broken my target is 560 which will end the extension move as drawn.
Some consolidation is coming this week which will give us a better picture hopefully by Wednesday.
End of the Ride for Take Two Interactive. TTWOLooks like an end to an Elliott impulse, with the standard 2-4 line and momentum divergence intact. Posing an entry as MIDAS line along with BB%PCT were crossed and crossed the zero line respectively. VZO and Stoch RSI are unreliable because they do not reflect price action here, probably due to all that recent barbwire trading.
$BTC Bearish Divergence on the Weekly !? NO!!!Someone on Twitter sent me a chart showing Bearish Divergence on the Weekly for BTC and asked me to analyze it.
(hopefully this link shows the chart)
pbs.twimg.com
My response is below.
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This is a really good question!
Caught me off guard for a second and I had to really analyze it.
That chart assumes we’re at the end of the cycle, so its showing bearish divergence prematurely in Mar ’25.
But the fractal it’s being compared to shows divergence with the peak in Nov ’21.
Here’s the correct way to draw the trends.
If you draw from the bear market low to current date, you see we are just getting warmed up.
This cycle is mimicking 2017 as I’ve mentioned a lot over the past year.
I marked where we are so you can see the Feb - Mar ’21 dip in RSI.
Imagine tapping out right before the moonshot!
It’s easy to get caught off guard with that chart, as the fractals from ’21 and ’25 on the RSI do look strikingly familiar, but notice how the right shoulder on the RSI falls in Nov 21’ , but the right shoulder on the RSI in Dec ’24 is going higher, pointing to the RSI following the ’17 uptrend.
I wonder if the person who made that chart actually thought that was the correct way to analyze the chart, or if that’s just a troll bear-posting.
I could see someone like CredibleCrypto or an XRP-maxi posting that.
Russel 2000 Compared to General MarketTVC:RUT has continued to sell off since my last couple posts and I believe we could see a huge market correction this year if price doesn't look to stop selling.
The next play on RUT I would like to see price pullback to the last breakout zone ($2,200) to confirm a continuation in trend
This play also looks very familiar to the 2022 selloff with equal highs to our current price structure. Seeing that AMEX:SPY is at a higher high tells me there is market-wide divergence and a topping pattern could be in play.
Now when we add CRYPTOCAP:BTC and $OTHER to the mix we can see bitcoin actually tops out first while Alts and SPX look to make one more leg up before crashing out.
The Trend Reader at the lower tab has topped out and has a bearish crossing in the overbought zone indicating we can see a long term play to the downside.
There's A Setup For A BounceFor fun, no idea what I'm doing.
Same as all the last times really, just see how it goes tomorrow morning, right now futures are flat but it's early. Going off the futures chart I think it'll meet my requirements short of a huge gap up.
Depending on what happens tonight going into tomorrow it's setting up for a bounce as crazy as that looks and sounds (again). Yeah it's been a little bad recently, and every day who knows what is done or said that can move markets either way, and we are not THAT far off from ATH, but the bounce setup is there, and potentially will actually follow through for the first time since the end of October 2023.
The bottom graph has a line that suggests oversold. In my mind it is set up if the line remains below the dotted line Mar 7. If it goes up above then maybe toss the idea. I literally only post when this is set up.
Maybe down early in the first part of the day due to something like jobs, then reverse up and hard for the next few days?
From the low of Mar 7 -
I usually say
5% chance of ~10% by Mar 12 (top yellow circle)
40% chance of +5.5% by Mar 12 (lower yellow circle)
60% chance of +5.5% by Mar 21 (right yellow circle)
But I really really really don't think we will get +10% with how things are set up that's ATHs, but just saying it does happen sometimes (not when it's like this though). So much so that I didn't even put it on the chart this time around.
Green eclipse is things going according to the idea, above is a bonus, below is a fail. If it does bounce, no idea how long it'll last.
You might be asking 40%? 60%? so you're flipping a coin? could go up, could go down? Well it's 40-60% chance of +5.5%, nothing is guaranteed and that's why you have responsible stops in place.
$COIN - pocket full of coins or out of coins?CAPITALCOM:COIN has dropped from $349 to currently $218 over the last three days, but seems to maybe have settled at the support in this area. Working on a bounce up from support, and MACD looks to maybe cross up and RSI has crossed up. Might be time to consider a long, my target is $300. The three candles since the bounce have been long-tailed, indicating buying interest. Of course, considering CAPITALCOM:COIN one must also look at CAPITALCOM:BTCUSD as they tend to move in tandem.
WTI crude oil Wave Analysis – 7 March 2025
- WTI reversed from the multi-month support level 64.90
- Likely to rise to resistance level 68.60
WTI crude oil recently reversed sharply from the powerful multi-month support level 64.90, which stopped the previous sharp downtrend at the start of September.
The upward reversal from the support level 64.90 will likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star Doji.
Given the strength of the support level 64.90 and the oversold daily Stochastic, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 68.60.
Pivoting Automatic Data Processing. ADPStrong bearish candle starts the picture painting. MIDAS cross follows, along with divergent RSX now out of OBOS territory. Would you look at that long combo on BB%PCT, now flipping to bearish. Interestingly, VZO and Ehlers Stoch RSI have been chronically divergent along the fifth wave, which is often seen. Fifth wave has often been attributed to traders big and small pushing the price beyond sustainable levels, which gets high lighted by divergences being throw off all over the place.
The key is whether it can be supported and rise at 89294.25
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
After the volatility period, it shows an upward trend above the HA-Low indicator (89294.25) on the 1D chart.
The key is whether it can be supported near 89294.25 and break through the M-Signal indicator on the 1D and 1W charts.
If the upward breakout is successful, it is expected to lead to an attempt to rise to around 94742.35.
However, since the StochRSI indicator has entered the overbought zone, I think that the area around 94742.35 is likely to act as resistance.
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If it falls below 89294.25, it is likely to eventually meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, so you should think about a countermeasure for this.
Accordingly, the maximum decline is expected to be around 73499.86.
At this time, it is expected that the trend will be determined again when it meets the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
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In order to turn into an uptrend, the price must rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart and maintain its value.
However, considering the currently formed support and resistance points, I think that it is highly likely to turn into an uptrend if it rises to around 94742.35 and shows support.
Therefore, the section where we can proceed with the trade is
1st: 89294.25
2nd: 94742.35
I think it is possible when we see the support near the 1st and 2nd above.
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In order for the uptrend to continue, it must rise above the HA-High indicator on the 1D chart.
Therefore,
1st: 97226.92
2nd: 101947.24
It must break through the 1st and 2nd sections above.
If not, the above section will act as resistance.
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As I mentioned earlier, the StochRSI indicator has entered the overbought section.
Therefore, I think it would be good to check whether it can be used as a trading reference indicator in the future by looking into how to resolve this.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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