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ASX 200 SPI Futures Test Key Support as RBA Decision LoomsWith disappointing earnings from major names like Westpac and BHP in recent days, and with more than three rate cuts priced for this year, ASX 200 SPI futures look vulnerable to downside heading into today’s RBA policy decision. They’re now testing major uptrend support—a level that has attracted buyers in recent months. While it’s holding for now, the technical picture is far less convincing for bulls than on previous occasions. Friday’s false break above the former record highs formed a shooting star daily candle, a clear reversal signal. While the price bounced off the uptrend again on Monday, unlike past instances, this one didn’t last with the price quickly gravitating back towards it. RSI (14) has diverged from price, flashing a bearish signal, while MACD is curling up and looks close to confirming with a crossover from above. Everything comes across as heavy. A break of the uptrend would put the 50DMA in focus as an initial target for bears, with further downside levels at 8280, 8135, and the key 200DMA. A stop above the uptrend would help manage reversal risk. If support holds, an alternative approach would be to set longs ahead of it with a stop beneath for protection. Potential upside targets include 8546 and 8581. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by FOREXcom
EURUSD Technical Forecast on NFP 07.02.2025Overall Trend & Context: The EURUSD pair is in an overall downtrend on the higher time frames and has recently been consolidating on the lower times. Fundamental Considerations for the NFP: Consensus Forecast (High Probability) - Most analysts forecast a gain in the 169K–170K range, which lines up with recent trends. A neutral result would suggest that the labor market is still solid. Stronger-than-Expected Outcome (Medium Probability) - If the report comes in well above consensus (eg: above 190K jobs), it could reinforce expectations for a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. Weaker-than-Expected Outcome (Low Probability) - A result below expectations (eg: fewer than 135K jobs) might trigger a reassessment of the US economic outlook, we will need to watch the markets and prepare for dynamic shifts. Technical Findings: Weekly - Bearish and trading well below EMA's. Daily - Bearish & showing signs of 25 EMA rejection. Previous distribution is holding price at bay. 4 Hour - Strong supply levels holding and trading below the 200 EMA. 1 Hour - Close to overbought levels and LTF distribution is holding. Important Notes: DXY is at a previous demand which proved to be a challenge to break through in the past. GBPUSD & EURUSD can have variations in the short term correlation but the technicals both align, which reinforces our EURUSD narrative. USDJPY technicals remain bullish on the long term however, the short term is in a downtrend and has reached a daily demand - we could potentially see a bullish reaction from here (based on DXY strength and the negative correlation with EURUSD) Potential Scenarios & Probabilities: If the lows at 1.03800 fail we may need to adjust our entry zones based on where liquidity and supply are found. If price reaches the weaker supply level closer to the release of the NFP we can enter, however there is a chance we could get stuck in some drawdown if supply isn't strong enough to push through. HIGH PROFILE NEWS RELEASES ARE DOUBLE EDGED IF YOU'RE NOT CAREFUL. YOU DO NOT NEED TO BASE YOUR ENTIRE TRADING CAREER ON IT. STAY OUT IF YOU'RE NOT COMFORTABLE TRADING NEWS. AS TRADERS, YOUR PRIMARY JOB IS TO PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL - WITHOUT CAPITAL YOU CAN'T MAKE ANY MOVES. Trade smart. Hope you all make money if you're trading today! Apex out! OANDA:EURUSD FX:EURUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD OANDA:USDJPY TVC:DXY OANDA:GBPUSD PEPPERSTONE:GBPUSD FX:USDJPY
Short
by Apexfx_Alpha
NIO Inc May Start a New Trend to the Upside. NIOI really like the divergences on the new low on more than one occasion and an encompassing divergence between the first low and the very last one. This is a common set piece in these type of complex corrections, where the Elliott count proves to be problematic. I am confident of a high chance of a profitable long, because almost simultaneously there is a flip on BB%PCT, VZO and Stoch/RSI, plus a MIDAS line course. I used Fibonacci clusters to paint some stationary goals.
NYSE:NIOLong
by Rykin_Capital
4
USD/CAD Slips—Fading Trade Fears, CPI in FocusUSD/CAD is trading heavy ahead of Canada’s inflation report, weighed down by softer US economic data and fading sticker shock from US trade policy headlines. With Canadian data impressing at rates not seen since mid-2024 and January’s steep reversal from 22-year highs increasingly resembling a cyclical top, the key question now is whether this marks the start of a more significant unwind of earlier USD/CAD gains. The price broke through multiple support levels last week after failing above the 50-day moving average, taking out 1.4270 and 1.4195 before retesting the latter from below over the past two sessions. Momentum indicators like RSI (14) and MACD continue to generate bearish signals, reinforcing the near-term bias being lower. Beyond 1.4195, downside levels include 1.4090, the December double bottom at 1.3932, and the 200-day moving average. On the upside, 1.4270 has acted as a cap for much of the past fortnight, alongside minor resistance at 1.4372. That zone could prove tough to crack this week without a major escalation in US trade tensions or an ice-cold Canadian inflation print. On Tuesday’s CPI report, the data will be skewed by a temporary GST holiday, potentially distorting the signal. That raises doubts about whether it will have enough weight to disrupt the prevailing USD/CAD trend. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREXcom
BATMAN Formation Gold has appread to be down to 2788 USDThis chart provides a 4-hour timeframe analysis of the Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) pair, indicating several technical aspects and current market conditions. Price Action and Trend Analysis: Current Trend: The chart shows a recent bearish movement as indicated by the sharp red candle that breaks below the previous consolidation area and moving average lines. This could suggest a potential reversal or pullback in an otherwise bullish context. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance is potentially around $2,907 and $2,900, highlighted by the MA Ribbon lines. Immediate support is near the $2,850 mark, as shown by the lower green zones and moving averages. Technical Indicators: Moving Average (MA) Ribbon: The price has fallen below the MA Ribbon, suggesting a potential shift in momentum from bullish to bearish in the short term. Watch for these averages as dynamic resistance levels on potential pullbacks. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is below the signal line and moving into negative territory, indicating increased bearish momentum. The expanding histogram in the negative region further supports this view. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is near 41, which is below the midpoint of 50, suggesting bearish momentum. It is not yet in the oversold region (below 30), which indicates that there may still be room for further downside. Volume: There appears to be a notable volume spike associated with the recent price drop, which can be seen as validating the bearish move. Market Sentiment and Potential Strategy: Short-Term Bearish Signal: The break below key moving averages and the recent bearish candle supported by increased volume suggest that bears are currently in control. Traders might consider looking for short opportunities on pullbacks to resistance levels. Watch for Potential Reversal: Keep an eye on the RSI and MACD for any signs of divergence or flattening that may suggest weakening bearish momentum. If the price stabilizes or rebounds at the $2,850 support, it could indicate a possible reversal or retracement back towards the moving averages. Risk Management: Ensure proper risk management strategies are in place, considering stop-loss orders above the recent swing high or around the MA Ribbon resistance levels. Adjust positions according to real-time market feedback and changes in technical indicators.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RevoTheTrader
2
USD/CHF Weekly AnalysisThe market continues to see USD/CHF as overpriced above the 0.9200 zone. For the first time this year, we see price printing a weekly close below 0.9052 which was support over the latter part of January 2025. More importantly, we have just seen a weekly close below the 'big number' 0.9000 and may see further downside. In addition, the stochastic has now dropped out of the weekly 'overbought' area. Look for pullbacks and sell setups on your time frame of choice if you agree with analysis.
by FusionMarkets
SOL emerging head & shoulder providing opportunitiesBYBIT:SOLUSDT has an emerging H&S structure that is providing opportunities described below, which can be utilised based on risk appetite and preference for a swing trade or investment. Note: The overall chart structure at the moment is highly complex and pattern failure risks, such as that experienced with BYBIT:XRPUSDT remains very high. Scenario An H&S structure has emerged since 23 Dec 2024. Neckline support has been confirmed 3 times around: 11 Jan, 07 Feb and 12 Feb. The price is still close to the neckline providing opportunity for entry into trades and/or investment. DCA entry into a longer term investment - recommended approach Allocate a percentage of your portfolio's available fund to this as an asset to hold, decide upon how many months or weeks you would like to DCA into the total position (I recommend no less that 3 months and no more than 6) and begin DCA. This approach will safeguard against mistiming the start of the DCA now before the beginning of a bearish cycle, finally ending at an as yet unknown lower support level (of 4 potential candidate price levels stated further down the text below). The case for beginning the investment approach now The project remains solid and has established itself as a competitor to ETH. Furthermore, it is the layer 1 of choice for memecoins and has had more new projects use it that ETH recently. Additionally, overall positive market sentiment remains as do utterance (although no formal new policies of note) of the Trump administration and financial institutions towards crypto. Finally, the large gyrations in price recently are making it more difficult to judge appropriate SL levels thereby making trading of any kind less attractive at the moment. The case against beginning the investment approach now The future of the project, like most projects is still unknown (crypto is the most volatile and riskiest of assets for a reason!). Although the industry is maturing, it is possible a newer project can come and usurp the place of SOL. There are further support levels (130, 90, 55, 20) that can provide better DCA entry levels, and as market sentiment can change on an utterance of Musk or Trump, patience for a better entry point caused by further bearish moves might be wiser, particularly as on the weekly chart, SOL appears to be printing it's 2nd consecutive doji - implying market indecisiveness and no clear indication that the bulls are about to become incharge again. SOL has also double topped (mid Nov 24 and mid Jan 25), near the ATH (250), indicating either upcoming bearish sentiment or another uncertain attempt at breaking the ATH. Swing trade Entry: 200 TP:280 - near the absolute top of the head SL: 160 - past the dragonfly candle of 13 Jan (this candle has the risk of indicating a new support leval and all traders must be wary of the 160-150 level as that was the support level in mid Oct 24 Additionally, 170 is also near the 200 EMA and crypto daily price gyrations are sometimes very large; therefore a daily low of a dragonfly and a EMA has the potential of being a support level that should be accounted for when setting a SL ) R/R: 1:2 The case for the swing trade The rate of change indicated is trending upwards. The neckline has proven to be a support level and has been validated 3 times. The against a swing trade Other technical indicators like the RSI (middling with little upwards trend) and MACD (likewise) do not provide strong positive support for the trade thesis. Having found support at the 200 EMA and broken out of the downward trend since 20 Jan, there is a possibility that the price will just range between the 50 EMA and 200 EMA (approx. 210 and 180) unless there is further external, fundamental cause for upwards momentum. Previous momentum was driven largely by the optimistic market sentiment for crypto following on from Trump's election win. Finally, a R:R of 1:2 is generally not considered worthy of such a speculative trade. Note: There is very little justification for a margin trade at the moment - the dragonfly candle on 03 Feb carries too much risk and invalidates a margin trade theses' risk/reward ratios. Margin trading this pair is best left to when a pattern emerges that is not part of a structure that includes the 03 Feb candlestick.
Long
by slip_stream
Gold Wave Analysis – 14 February 2025 - Gold reversed from resistance zone - Likely to fall to support level 2860.00 Gold today reversed down the resistance zone between the key resistance level 2940.00 (which formed daily Doji earlier this month), the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from January and the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from this resistance zone will most likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing – if the price closes today near the current levels. Given that both daily Stochastic and RSI indicators are high in the overbought areas, Gold can be expected to fall to the next support level 2860.00.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by FxProGlobal