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BTCUSD (15m) – Wave 12345 Completed with Bullish Divergence & SN🕒 Timeframe: 15-Minute 💰 Pair: BTC/USD ⸻ 🔍 Wave Structure & Momentum Analysis Using Elliott Wave Theory, we can clearly identify a completed 5-wave impulsive move down: • (1) → (2) → (3) → (4) → (5) • Wave (5) completes with a bullish divergence against the Awesome Oscillator (AO), signaling weakening bearish momentum. • Both price and AO show a clear divergence between wave (3) and wave (5), hinting at a possible reversal or corrective phase. ⸻ 🔁 Break of Structure & SNR Zone • Price is currently reacting to a key Support-turned-Resistance (SNR) level around 107,724. • A confirmed break and close above this SNR will mark a break of structure, strengthening the bullish case. • I will wait for the price to close above 107,724 on the 15M timeframe to confirm this break. ⸻ 🧠 What’s Next? ABC Retracement for Entry • Upon break of structure, I will look for a nearest bullish Supply & Demand (SND) zone as a potential entry point. • Ideally, I will wait for an ABC corrective retracement (after the break) to enter long. • Entry will be placed at the base of the SND zone formed during the corrective leg. ⸻ 📌 Trade Plan Summary • ✅ Wave 12345 completed (impulse wave down). • ✅ Bullish divergence confirmed with AO. • ⚠️ Watching for break and close above 107,724 (key SNR). • 🔎 If broken, wait for ABC correction into SND zone to initiate long position. • 🎯 Target: Mid to Upper structure zone based on previous supply. • ❌ Invalidation: If price fails to break above 107,724 or breaks below recent swing low (wave 5), setup is void. ⸻ 📈 Technical Confluence • Elliott Wave Count • AO Divergence • Break of Structure (BoS) • SNR Level • Awaiting ABC Pullback into SND ⸻ 💬 Let me know what you think! Are you seeing the same structure? Waiting patiently for confirmation before entering. #BTCUSD #ElliottWave #BreakOfStructure #SupplyAndDemand #AO #CryptoAnalysis #SmartMoney #15MinChart
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by AwesomeOscDad
1
GBP/USD H1 Analysis – Fibonacci Exhaustion + Bearish DivergencePair: GBP/USD Timeframe: 1-Hour Technical Tools Used: • Price Action & Structure • Fibonacci Extension • Awesome Oscillator (AO) ⸻ 📌 Key Technical Highlights: ✅ Price reached 4.236 Fibonacci Exhaustion Level ✅ Clear Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside ✅ Bearish Divergence spotted on AO ✅ Bearish Targets identified using Fibonacci Extension ⸻ 🔍 Market Overview: GBP/USD recently completed a strong bullish impulse and tapped into the 4.236 Fibonacci exhaustion zone around 1.34686, a level often associated with trend exhaustion. Following this, a Break of Structure (BOS) was confirmed, signaling potential weakening of bullish momentum and a possible trend reversal. ⸻ 📉 Bearish Confluence – AO Divergence: The Awesome Oscillator (AO) confirms bearish divergence: • Price made a higher high. • AO made a lower high. This suggests that bullish momentum is fading despite higher price levels — a classic early warning of potential reversal. ⸻ 🎯 Fibonacci Extension Take-Profit Zones: Using the latest swing leg and BOS as the reference, the Fibonacci extension tool reveals several high-probability take-profit zones: • ✅ TP1: 1.618 Extension @ 1.33770 • ✅ TP2: 2.618 & 2.786 Extensions @ 1.33204 – 1.33051 • 🧊 Extreme Targets: 4.236+ Extensions near 1.32288 and below, if strong bearish momentum continues. ⸻ 💡 Trading Plan: This setup offers a clean bearish opportunity based on: • Completion of an extended bullish leg • Break of market structure • Momentum divergence via AO • Strong Fibonacci confluence Bias: Bearish Trigger: Wait for pullback or retest followed by bearish confirmation (e.g., rejection candle or engulfing pattern). Risk: As always, use clear stop-loss above recent high and manage risk appropriately. ⸻ 👍 If you found this analysis helpful, give it a like and follow for more updates. 💬 Drop your thoughts or questions below — let’s discuss your setups too!
Short
by AwesomeOscDad
AUD/CAD: Ducks in a Row for a Drop Below .8880?The ducks look to be lining up for AUD/CAD downside. It was comprehensively rejected at the 200DMA a fortnight ago, followed by wedge break on Tuesday before sliding below the 50DMA on Thursday. It now sits perched on .8880, a level it attracted buying from earlier this month. With RSI (14) sub-50 and MACD crossing over from above, momentum signals are shifting neutral to moderately bearish, favouring downside. With both moving averages trending lower, it reinforces the bearish picture. If AUD/CAD breaks beneath .8880, considering initiating shorts targeting a return to support at .8800. A stop above .8880 would provide protection against reversal. Should it hold .8880, the bearish backdrop suggests there are better setups to consider than flipping the trade and going long. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREXcom
1
RACE Wave Analysis – 22 May 2025- RACE reversed from round resistance level 500.00 - Likely to fall to support level 460.00 RACE earlier reversed from the strong resistance area between the major round resistance level 500.00 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of 2024) and the upper weekly Bollinger Band. The last time the price reversed down from the resistance level 500.00 it formed the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal Evening Star – signalling the strength of this resistance level. Given the overbought reading on the weekly Stochastic indicator, RACE can be expected to fall to the next support level 460.00.
NYSE:RACEShort
by FxProGlobal
BTC hits ATH – But this hidden signal could ruin the rally!Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a steady and impressive uptrend over the past two months, with nearly seven consecutive weekly green candles forming on the chart. This sustained bullish momentum signals strong buying pressure and growing confidence among market participants. Such a consistent rally is rare and often indicates a broader shift in sentiment, suggesting that Bitcoin may be entering a new phase in its market cycle. Price discovery Recently, BTC broke through its previous all-time high (ATH) of 110K on the lower timeframes, a significant technical development. This breakout means BTC is now trading in price discovery territory, where there is no historical resistance to guide price action. While this opens the door for further gains, traders should remain cautious. Upcoming daily and weekly candle closes will be critical in determining whether this breakout is sustainable. For the move to be confirmed, Bitcoin needs to close multiple weekly candles above the previous ATH. If instead, the price falls back below the ATH on either this weekly close or the next, it could introduce downward pressure and potentially signal a failed breakout. As we navigate this pivotal moment, it's crucial not to get swept up in the euphoria. While the price action is undoubtedly bullish, certain technical indicators warrant close monitoring to avoid complacency. In particular, the weekly Stochastic RSI and the weekly RSI are now at levels that deserve attention. Stochastic RSI The weekly Stochastic RSI is entering overbought territory, even before this week’s candle has closed. This suggests strong bullish momentum is currently driving the market. However, history shows that when the Stochastic RSI enters the overbought zone, it often marks areas where it was wise to take partial profits. If the blue and orange lines on the Stochastic RSI begin to cross back below the 80 level, it could indicate a weakening of momentum and the possibility of a short-term correction. That scenario becomes more likely if Bitcoin fails to continue making higher highs in the weeks ahead. Relative Strenght Index (RSI) Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching a critical resistance trendline. In previous market highs, we’ve seen the RSI top out at 89, followed by a high of 80 despite new highs in BTC’s price, a classic case of bearish divergence. If Bitcoin fails to push significantly higher in the coming weeks and the RSI does not break above the 80 level, we could be looking at a potential triple bearish divergence. This would be a strong warning signal that momentum is waning, and it could lead to a broader correction. For this reason, it is crucial that Bitcoin continues to push upward with conviction. The RSI must break through its historical trendline and post a new high above 80 in order to invalidate the threat of bearish divergence. Should the market fail to do so and instead roll over, we may experience increased volatility and downside pressure as we move into the summer months. Conclusion In conclusion, while Bitcoin is exhibiting powerful bullish behavior and appears poised for further gains, the sustainability of this rally hinges on continued momentum and strong technical follow-through. Specifically, Bitcoin must maintain closes above its previous all-time high, avoid a bearish cross on the Stochastic RSI, and see the RSI break above its recent highs to neutralize the threat of bearish divergence. If these conditions are not met and momentum fades, the market may face a period of consolidation or correction in the near term. Staying vigilant and objectively monitoring these indicators will be essential for navigating what comes next. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
by Youriverse
29
GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Completion + AO Divergence @ Zone 4.23 | BUHey traders! 👋 Here’s an exciting setup on GBP/JPY (1H) — we might be at the early stage of a major reversal, and you’ll want this on your radar. Let's break it down with Elliott Wave theory, the Awesome Oscillator (AO), and some powerful Fibonacci confluence. 🧠 Elliott Wave Count – 5-Wave Impulse Completed We have a clean 5-wave bearish impulsive structure: 1️⃣ Wave (1): Sharp drop kicks off the trend. 2️⃣ Wave (2): Classic pullback, respecting structure. 3️⃣ Wave (3): Longest and most powerful wave down. 4️⃣ Wave (4): Corrective triangle/flat with weakening bear momentum. 5️⃣ Wave (5): Final push into a key demand zone, but lacks strength. 🛑 What makes this special? Wave (5) lands right into “Zone 4.23” — a Fibonacci extension (423.6%) of the corrective leg — acting as a magnet for price exhaustion. 📊 AO Divergence – Early Warning Signal! Check the Awesome Oscillator (AO): Price makes lower lows (Wave 3 → Wave 5) AO makes higher lows — textbook bullish divergence 🔍 This is smart money exhaustion: the bears are running out of steam, even though price is still pushing lower. When momentum diverges from price, a reversal is highly probable. 📌 ZONE 4.23 – Fibonacci Confluence + Demand Zone This zone (191.900 – 192.300) is no ordinary support. It combines: 📐 423.6% Fibonacci extension (a powerful exhaustion level) 🟦 Historical demand zone from previous impulsive rally 🤖 Price reacting instantly on touch = algorithmic buying likely ⚠️ What Comes Next – Break of Structure (BOS) = Entry Trigger We’re not rushing in blindly. Here’s the plan: Wait for BOS: Price must break above Wave (4) structure (~193.200). AO flips green: Extra confirmation of new bullish momentum. Retest of BOS or Zone 4.23: That’s our golden buy entry. Target Zone: Use Fibonacci retracement of full Wave 1–5 down. First targets: 🎯 38.2% = 193.800 🎯 61.8% = 194.900 🎯 Full correction = 196.000+ 🎯 Conclusion: This Is a Setup with EDGE ✅ Completed Elliott Wave ✅ AO Divergence = Hidden strength ✅ Fibonacci 4.23 Confluence ✅ Demand Zone bounce ✅ Clear BOS-based entry plan 🔥 Are You Ready for the Reversal? Drop a comment if you're watching this setup too 👇 Like ❤️ + Follow if you want more clean, actionable Elliott Wave + AO confluence setups like this! 📈 Let’s catch the move before the crowd reacts. #GBPJPY #ElliottWave #AO #Divergence #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #BuySetup #SmartMoney #Fib4.23 #BreakOfStructure #TrendReversal
Long
by AwesomeOscDad
Color Your Trades: MACD 4C vs the Classic📊 Coloring Momentum: Comparing Standard MACD vs MACD 4C Momentum indicators are a trader’s compass—but not all compasses are created equal. In this post, we compare the classic MACD with the visually enhanced MACD 4C , a four-color histogram tool that adds clarity and nuance to trend and momentum analysis. Let’s break down how both tools work, how we use them at Xuantify, and how you can decide which one fits your strategy best. 🔍 What Are These Indicators? Standard MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a time-tested momentum indicator that plots the difference between two EMAs (typically 12 and 26) and a signal line (usually a 9 EMA of the MACD line). It’s simple, effective, and widely used. MACD 4C , developed by vkno422 , builds on the classic MACD by introducing a four-color histogram and divergence detection , making it easier to interpret momentum shifts and trend strength visually. Key Differences: Standard MACD: Two lines + histogram (single color) MACD 4C: Histogram only, but with four colors to show trend strength and direction MACD 4C includes bullish/bearish divergence detection 🧠 How We Use Them at Xuantify We use both indicators—but for different purposes. 1. Standard MACD – Clean Confirmation We use it for classic trend confirmation and crossover signals . It’s great for traders who prefer minimalism and are comfortable interpreting line-based momentum. 2. MACD 4C – Visual Momentum Clarity We use MACD 4C when we want a more intuitive, color-coded view of momentum. The four-color histogram helps us quickly spot trend strength, exhaustion, and divergence. 🧭 Color Coding in MACD 4C MACD 4C uses four histogram colors (default settings): Lime/Green : Bullish momentum building or continuing Red/Maroon : Bearish momentum building or continuing This makes it easier to: Spot momentum shifts Identify trend continuation Detect divergence at a glance ⚙️ Settings That Matter Both indicators allow customization, but MACD 4C offers more visual tuning: MACD 4C: Adjustable fast/slow MA and signal smoothing Toggle divergence detection Color-coded histogram for quick reads Standard MACD: Clean, minimal, and widely supported Best for traders who prefer traditional setups 🔗 Best Combinations with These Indicators We combine MACD tools with: Structure Tools – BOS/CHOCH for context Liquidity Zones – To spot where momentum may reverse Volume Profile – To confirm strength behind moves Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) – For precision entries ⚠️ What to Watch Out For Both indicators are lagging by nature—they rely on moving averages. MACD 4C’s divergence detection can help anticipate reversals, but it’s still best used as a confirmation tool , not a standalone signal. 🔁 Repainting Behavior Both the standard MACD and MACD 4C are non-repainting . Once a histogram bar or crossover is printed, it remains fixed. This makes them reliable for real-time trading and backtesting . ⏳ Lagging or Leading? These are lagging indicators , designed to confirm trends—not predict them. MACD 4C’s divergence feature adds a leading element , but it should always be used with structure and price action for confirmation. 🚀 Final Thoughts If you’re a visual trader who wants more clarity from your momentum tools, MACD 4C is a powerful upgrade. If you prefer simplicity and tradition, the standard MACD still holds its ground. Try both, test them in your strategy, and see which one sharpens your edge.
Education
by Xuantify
NZDUSD Bearish Setup🔍 Market Structure Analysis WSD Zone Rejection (Top): Price tapped a wick-based supply & demand (WSD) zone at the top around 0.59486. That zone also aligns with the previous liquidity grab + mitigation of the OB. Price is now rejecting that area — forming a lower high (LH) inside the zone → classic sign of distribution. Rising Channel Break: Price was rising inside the red ascending channel. Currently showing bearish intent, with multiple internal BOS (breaks of structure). If price closes below the channel, that confirms bearish expansion. Downtrend from Premium Zone: We're clearly in premium pricing, where institutions prefer to offload longs. This area also completes a liquidity sweep of prior highs inside the WSD zone. 🧠 Trade Logic (Sell Setup) 🔺 Entry Zone: Inside or after rejection of WSD at 0.59486. 🛑 Stop Loss: Just above the WSD zone and local high. 🎯 Take Profits: TP1: 0.58669 → Local support + lower WSD zone (reaction zone). TP2: 0.58398 → Previous liquidity pool and external low. 🧾 R:R = Clean 1:4.5+, textbook SMC setup. 📌 Confluences for Bearish Bias ✅ Multiple WSD zones tested with bearish rejection. ✅ Rising channel inside premium is breaking. ✅ Mitigation + BOS on smaller TF. ✅ News candle marked by blue vertical line may act as final volatility spike before continuation. ✅ Price is near VWAP/50% equilibrium → Ideal for smart money to expand to downside. 🧯 Invalidation Conditions ❌ If price closes above 0.59486, we reassess the bias. ❌ A re-entry into the upper WSD with strong bullish volume invalidates the current bearish flow. 🔮 Forecast Summary This is a classic distribution setup with liquidity engineered into a WSD zone, now showing early mitigation and markdown signs. Unless major manipulation occurs, expect price to expand toward the 0.58398 low in the next 24–48 hours.
Short
by Delast2
Hang Seng Futures: Bulls Need 23,600 to StickIf Hang Seng futures continue to bounce from 23,600, it sets up a decent long opportunity with the price trending higher and momentum indicators and moving averages still favouring dip buying. The price is currently taking a peek beneath the level. If it can rebound—as seen earlier in the session—longs could be considered above 23,600 with a stop beneath the session low for protection. Wednesday’s high of 23,884 stands out as a potential target, with a break above that opening the door to a retest of 24,050 resistance. Failure to reclaim 23,600 would invalidate the setup. Good luck! DS
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by FOREXcom
EURUSD Bearish Setup📌 Market Structure & Setup Summary Major Supply Zone Rejection (Red Zone at Top): Price tapped into higher timeframe supply zone at 1.13755 (red box). This was a buy-side liquidity grab just above the previous high → textbook distribution zone. Now price is respecting that zone and rejecting it with bearish momentum. Bearish Rising Channel Broken: Red trendlines show a rising wedge → often leads to a bearish breakout. Price is currently breaking out of that wedge to the downside. Premium Pricing Confirmed: Price was pushed into the premium zone (above equilibrium), inducing buy orders → now being reversed. 🔄 Trade Plan (Short Bias) ✅ Entry: Activated inside the red supply zone after confirming wick rejections and structure shift. 🛑 Stop Loss: Above the red supply zone (above 1.13755). 🎯 Targets: TP1 → 1.12545: Structure support and breaker block. TP2 → 1.11663: Previous demand zone and trendline intersection. TP3 (Optional) → 1.11002 – 1.10610: External liquidity + trendline + FVG zone. 📉 RR Ratio: Estimated 1:4 to 1:5+ if TP2/TP3 hits. ⚠️ Key Confluences 🔹 Bearish break of rising wedge = structural shift. 🔹 Rejection wick inside red supply + BOS. 🔹 TP zones aligned with previous OB, breaker blocks, and liquidity pools. 🔹 News/volatility likely during the double blue vertical lines, so expect reaction spikes. 🚫 Invalidation Criteria If price closes above 1.13755, the idea is invalid. Watch for manipulation or false breakouts during high-impact news. 🔮 Market Forecast If current rejection holds, expecting price to seek sell-side liquidity from 1.12545, then 1.11663, and possibly lower. This is a classic distribution > BOS > retrace > expansion sequence.
Short
by Delast2
1
3M Wave Analysis – 21 May 2025 - 3M reversed from multi-month resistance level 154.00 - Likely to fall to support level 145.00 3M recently reversed down from the multi-month resistance level 154.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of January) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from the resistance level 154.00 formed the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star. Given the strength of the resistance level 154.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, 3M can be expected to fall to the next support level 145.00.
NYSE:MMMShort
by FxProGlobal
GBPUSD Bearish Setup📌 Current Market Structure Liquidity Sweep + Rejection in Premium Zone: Price tapped into the major supply zone (red box) sitting above the last high. Liquidity above previous highs was swept, and now price is rejecting → a classic buy-side liquidity grab setup. Bearish Rising Wedge Structure Broken: Price broke the inner rising wedge (red trendlines) to the downside and is now retesting the supply zone. Breakdown aligns with a potential reversal entry or at least a bearish pullback. Higher Timeframe Supply Zone: The red zone coincides with the 1.34782 resistance, which price failed to break cleanly above. This zone holds institutional footprints → possible smart money distribution. 🧠 Trade Idea (Bearish Bias Confirmed) ✅ Entry: Already activated inside the red supply zone. 📍 Stop Loss: Just above the red box (around 1.3480). 🎯 Target Zones: TP1: 1.33281 → minor demand zone and previous consolidation. TP2: 1.32870 → previous BOS retest zone. TP3: 1.32543 → deep demand zone and trendline intersection. TP4: 1.31759–1.31554 → external liquidity resting below structure (long-term target). 🔻 Risk-to-Reward: Excellent potential up to 1:5+ RR if TP4 hits. 🔄 Reversal Signals Confirmation Watch for: Bearish engulfing candles with rising volume inside the red zone (VSA style). Displacement candle or M5–M15 BOS confirming internal structure shift. ⚠️ Invalidation Zone If price closes a 1H candle above 1.3480, setup is invalidated. Watch out for possible manipulation during the vertical blue lines (likely high-impact news). 🔮 Forecast: Expecting a mid- to long-term retracement or reversal back to the 1.31700s – 1.32800s region, based on the current rejection from premium supply and completion of a liquidity sweep.
Short
by Delast2
Going Short on BitcoinBINANCE:BTCUSDT Bitcoin has moved up strongly in the last 5 weeks in a 5-wave up move, which is very bullish long term. However, after a 5-wave move, there is usually a 3-wave corrective move to the opposite direction. The most common target will be the Golden Pocket, which is between the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement and the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement. Which would be between $86,500 USDT and $81,200 USDT. This move will probably take several weeks, probably between 2 and 4 weeks, before it resumes to the upside. Another point to consider is that the RSI indicator has reached overbought levels, above the 70 level. I would like to see it near oversold levels, 30 level, before considering going long. I hope you find this interesting. Good luck to you
Short
by Raul_Dominguez
Why I think EURUSD will sell this week...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends, Happy Monday! I wanted to share my analysis on EURUSD and why I think it will sell. This is only a technical analysis so please check the news and cross-reference your own charts. Here is what I am looking at: - Momentum has picked up for the sellers after the swing high was hit. This means a downtrend has started and is picking up. - The market structure was broken on the downside on M15 and H1. There was a retest and previous support became resistance. - The stoch is facing down, both lines have crossed below 80, slow line (orange) is above the fast line (blue) which is a bearish confirmation for me. Additional information: - I will wait for both lines of the stoch to cross below 50 to confirm the down trend. - I will use previous highs as my SL and previous lows as my TPs. Good luck if you decide to take this trade, let me know how it goes. Peace and Profits, Cha
Short
by MoneyMantraCha
ASX Bulls Sniff Record HighsASX 200 SPI futures have broken above the 8400 level and May 16 high of 8424, opening the door to a bullish setup—provided the price holds these levels into the close. Longs could be considered above 8424 with a stop below 8400 for protection, targeting a retest of the record high at 8581. While momentum indicators are nearing overbought territory, they continue to trend higher, keeping the bullish bias intact. A close below 8400 would invalidate the setup. Fundamentally, the underlying index remains expensive across several valuation metrics—especially the banking sector, where multiples are hard to justify. But that hasn't stopped the rally so far. Optimism following the RBA’s dovish shift in May is helping fuel the latest breakout. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!Long
by FOREXcom
An Extended In-Depth BTC/USDT Technical ExaminationThis comprehensive technical analysis offers a granular look into the recent trading activity of BTC/USDT. By dissecting the established market structure, various indicator signals, and crucial volume patterns, we aim to build a detailed picture of the forces at play and the evolving sentiment within this market. 1. The Bedrock: Established Bullish Structure and a History of Ascending Peaks Observing the price action from the designated "STRUCTURE START" point, it's evident that Bitcoin has, for a considerable span, carved out a path indicative of bullish market dominance. This was not a haphazard series of movements but rather a more methodical construction of a positive trend, characterized by the consistent achievement of higher highs. Each successive peak surpassed its predecessor, and often, the subsequent troughs also formed at higher levels than those before them. This pattern of ascending highs and higher lows is a cornerstone of classical technical analysis, widely interpreted as a sign of robust underlying demand and a prevailing optimistic sentiment among market participants. Buyers have demonstrated a recurring willingness to absorb selling pressure and to pay incrementally more for the asset, leading to this stair-step upward progression. This established bullish framework provides the critical context against which more recent, potentially contrasting, signals must be evaluated. It forms the baseline expectation of continued upward momentum that has been challenged by more recent developments. 2. An Early Warning: The Initial Bearish Divergence and Its Eventual Neutralization Well before the most recent price turbulence, an interesting cautionary signal emerged in the form of a "WEAK BEARISH DIVERGENCE," as demarcated by the yellow dashed line connecting price peaks with corresponding RSI peaks. This specific instance occurred when the price chart successfully printed a new, higher high, yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, failed to confirm this strength, instead registering a lower high. Such a discrepancy between price and momentum is a classic bearish divergence. It often suggests that while the price is still being pushed upwards, the underlying buying power or enthusiasm is beginning to wane. It can be an early indicator that the bullish thrust is losing conviction and that the trend might be vulnerable to a pullback or reversal. However, this particular early warning signal did not immediately usher in a significant downturn. As the chart highlights with the red "!" exclamation mark on the RSI, this divergence was subsequently "mitigated." Divergence mitigation can occur in several ways, such as a sharp price correction that pulls the RSI down significantly, effectively "resetting" the oscillator, or a period of sideways consolidation where the RSI drifts lower, resolving the overbought conditions without a major price drop. In this case, the mitigation implied that the bearish undertones indicated by the divergence were either absorbed by renewed buying interest or were not potent enough to derail the overarching uptrend at that juncture. The market seemingly managed to overcome this initial hiccup in momentum, allowing the bullish structure to persist for a while longer. 3. The Volume Narrative: A Tale of Initial Strength Followed by Decisive Weakness at the Apex The volume profile, particularly over the most recent trading days leading up to and including the latest peak, provides crucial insights into market conviction. As BTC/USDT embarked on its ascent towards the recent significant highs, there was a conspicuous and encouraging surge in trading volume. This is visually represented by the taller volume bars, and the green upward arrow on the volume indicator emphasizes this period of high participation. Generally, strong volume accompanying a price rally or a breakout above key resistance levels is considered a bullish confirmation. It suggests broad market participation, institutional interest, and a strong consensus behind the upward move, lending credibility to its sustainability. However, a very different and far more concerning volume pattern emerged during the attempt to retest or potentially exceed this recently established high. As indicated by the red downward-sloping arrow and the prominent red question mark above the volume bars, the trading volume experienced a dramatic and notable decline during this critical retest. This sharp fall-off in volume as the price approached or nominally touched the prior peak is a significant bearish tell. It signals a profound lack of buying conviction at these elevated price levels. Potential interpretations include buyer exhaustion (those willing to buy have already done so), profit-taking by earlier entrants, or an absence of new capital willing to chase the price higher. The failure to decisively break the previous high, especially when accompanied by such diminished volume, often acts as a strong precursor to price rejection, suggesting that the bullish impetus witnessed earlier had significantly dissipated, leaving the market vulnerable. 4. An Unresolved Condition: The Persistent Bearish Divergence Deepens its Roots More recently, and perhaps more alarmingly for bullish prospects, a distinct and more pronounced bearish divergence has taken shape, as explicitly marked in red ("DIV") on the RSI indicator. This divergence materialized as the price action, particularly looking at candle closes, managed to etch out highs that were comparable to, or in some instances slightly above, the peak established just before the sharp subsequent decline. In stark contrast, the RSI painted a very different picture, charting a series of clearly lower highs. This disjuncture, where price holds or inches higher while momentum (as measured by the RSI) visibly weakens, is a classic and often more reliable bearish signal. It implies that the upward price movements are occurring on fumes, with diminishing underlying strength and buying support. What makes this particular divergence especially noteworthy is its resilience. Despite the "relatively violent attack on the lows" observed – a sharp and rapid downward price movement that might typically be expected to "reset" indicators and alleviate overbought conditions or divergences – this bearish divergence was not mitigated. One might anticipate such a forceful sell-off to drive the RSI down substantially, thereby resolving the discrepancy with price. However, in this instance, while the RSI did decline in response to the price drop, it did not fall to a level that would invalidate the pre-existing bearish divergence. Instead, this sequence of events seems to have reaffirmed and potentially extended the divergence. The RSI’s failure to achieve a deep reset during the sell-off, coupled with any subsequent weak price recovery attempts that still keep the RSI relatively subdued compared to its earlier peaks, reinforces the notion that the selling pressure encountered was substantial and that the bulls currently lack the momentum to decisively overcome this prevailing underlying weakness. This persistent, unmitigated divergence, especially when viewed in conjunction with the aforementioned volume weakness at the highs, strongly suggests a more entrenched struggle for the bulls. Conclusion: While it's true that in the very short term, the persistence and extension of the bearish RSI divergence, coupled with volume weakness during the latest attempt to surpass highs, presents a scenario with slightly bearish undertones and warns of a potential corrective or consolidation phase, it is crucial not to lose sight of the broader perspective. The primary price structure, observed since the "STRUCTURE START," continues to exhibit a sequence of higher highs. This is a fundamental pillar that maintains the bullish scenario as the principal and most probable one in the medium term. Therefore, even if the price were to experience a correction and seek lower support levels or even recent lows (such as a potential test of the POC zone or lower marked levels), the priority mindset should remain geared towards identifying buying opportunities. This is because the underlying expectation is that, following a potential corrective or consolidation phase, the price will resume its path to make future attacks on key resistance levels. Seeking long trades, with an eye on surpassing recent highs and continuing the upward trend, remains the predominant strategy. Additionally, it is vital to consider the confluence with the prevailing bullish trend on higher timeframes (daily, weekly). What we are currently observing on this lower timeframe chart could be interpreted as a phase of fractal re-accumulation within the inertia of this larger uptrend. That is, a pattern of consolidation and subsequent continuation that replicates on a smaller scale within a broader bullish movement. Pullbacks, in this context, often serve as opportunities for longer-term traders to add to positions or for new participants to enter in the direction of the main trend. Consequently, while the formation of a short-term bearish setup cannot be entirely dismissed, especially if weakness persists and key supports are broken with conviction and volume, this bearish scenario still lacks the necessary confirmations to consider it dominant or to invalidate the underlying bullish structure. For now, the structure of higher highs and higher lows, supported by the trend on higher timeframes, suggests that any current weakness might be temporary before a new bullish impulse. The underlying bullish structure remains the primary guide until proven otherwise with compelling technical evidence, such as a break and consolidation below significant prior structural lows.
by hiraganime