DAX - short term correction currently very Overbought!Hi guys, we are following up with our next opportunity DAX :
Currently it has been perfoming fantastic as being part of the biggest Economy in Europe, and it reached a glorious All time High, following up with the western Indices , SP500,NASDAQ100 and Dow Jones. Currently the price has reached a very overbought level based on the RSI check on 1H time frame and 4H time frame, so for the time being I am looking into a short term correction with a follow up to maybe break down the current all time high and get passed it.
Entry : 20,400
Target : 19,916
Let's see how things are going to formulate and move from there.
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
Oscillators
Start of decline: Below 97821.58
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The Market Cap chart will be updated again when a new candle is created.
I think the gap increase of USDT, USDC is a trace of funds flowing in.
The increase in BTC dominance means that funds are concentrated on BTC.
You cannot predict the rise and fall of BTC with BTC dominance.
The rise in USDT dominance is likely to be reflected in the decline of the coin market.
The start of the decline in the coin market is expected to begin when it rises above 4.97 and is maintained.
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(BTCUSDT 1W chart)
The point to watch is whether the StochRSI indicator shows a downward trend from the 100 point or whether it switches to a state where StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
Since the StochRSI indicator is a lagging indicator, you can know the exact value when a new candle is created.
However, if there is a change in the value of the StochRSI indicator when a movement occurs, it means that an important point has been passed.
In that sense, the fact that the StochRSI indicator is maintained at the 100 point despite the current price decline means that an important point has not been passed.
However, there may be fluctuations in the StochRSI indicator value when a new candle is created while the price is falling.
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(1D chart)
The HA-High indicator is expected to be created at 101947.24.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can be supported near 101947.24.
If not, it falls and shows resistance near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator or 97821.58, there is a possibility of meeting the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
Therefore, before meeting the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart, you should check whether it is supported near 87.8K-89K or whether the HA-Low indicator or BW(0) indicator is newly created.
If the HA-Low indicator or BW(0) indicator is generated, it is important to see if there is support in the vicinity.
If the HA-Low indicator is generated, it is expected that the current wave will end and a movement to create a new wave will begin.
The start of the decline is expected to start when it falls below 97821.58.
The volatility period is around December 27 (maximum December 26-28).
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
In the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
As you can see from the LOG chart, the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the upward trend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the upward wave.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the upward trend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you to decide how to view and respond to this.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
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CYCLE 4 | BTC If Perfect Cycle - ATM Target Zone [For Fun]IF PERFECT CYCLE - ATM TARGET ZONE
For this post (just for fun) if BTC is allowed to run to it historic tends this cycle, then I have marketed the projected 'ATH Target Zone', based on the current state of my price modelling, cycle mapping, oscillators, indicators and technical analysis tends.
Weekly RSI - CURRENT ANALYSIS
While the weekly RSI bearish divergence (yet to be locked in) looks eerily familiar to our double peak top the 2021 cycle, if this does eventuate then we will be looking for BULLs to continually invalidate similar to the 2017 bull run. If there is a reasonable pull back at this point (30% to 40% pull back) and we retest and hold the 21W EMA 20W SMA, then this would be consistent with the 2017 bull run at this point in the cycle and we would then want to see bulls invalidate the bearish divergence on the weekly RSI to have confidence in the possibility of more upward price action ahead.
FOLLOW ALONG WITH THIS POST!
What do you think about this chart? Am I too bullish or bearish with this zone?
Will be fun to track this moving forward.
CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back?Quick post to address BTCs expected potential first major pull back into this bull run period...
BULL MARKET PULL BACKS
Historically, BTC during its bull market enjoys pull back which ranged from 15% to as much as 30%-40% in prior markets. This is essential for trader participants in the market to take profits, allow BTC to retest low levels and prove new heights are sustainable before ranging to new higher price levels.
The first pull back historically for BTC post the start of the 'Bull Run' phase of BTCs 4 year cycle is traditionally the largest pull back opportunity and historically been the best short term buying opportunity in the Bull Run (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE).
We can expect a 30-40% correction for this pull back based on historic bull market period examples (Let me know in the comments below if you would like me to detail consistent price behaviour during BTC bull run periods in a future post).
ARE WE AT THIS POINT NOW OF THE CYCLE? WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS SAYING?
As highlighted by the RED arrow on the chart, a number of the indicators like to monitor on the weekly chat are suggesting bearish divergences and fading momentum exists with the current price action. This is calling for a cooling off period of the market.
CME GAP
Historically, BTC has had a tendency to want to 'close' open gap, created by weekend trading of BTC that does not align with equities that follow the traditional 'No Trading' over the weekend policy of Traditional Financial instruments. Hence crypto ETFs which align with these policies (such as the CME Futures chart as seen in this chart) can create 'GAP' between the open (Monday) and close (Friday) candles.
To understand CME gaps, please take the time to review the details discussion in the earlier post.
The orange BOX shows the below CME gap target that BTC price may range towards to close.
NOTE: this box has been listed as Partially Closed as the open Monday candle of the gap did go below before rising during the weekly candle but did no dip past the close of the previous weekly candle.
21W EMA & 20W SMA
Historically, a fully developed healthy bull market for BTC has required periodic retesting and holding of these moving averages. A close of the CME gap at this point of the market would also satisfy this historic trend for BTC.
ORANGE TREND LINE
Bears if eager to continue the 'close the CME gap' trend will need to convince the market by first exceeding the orange trend line. Currently this allows BTC to complete a 10 to 12% correction while also taking the price below the key psychological 100K price level, without phasing the bulls conviction to charger higher.
* Holding the Orange Trend Line Scenario: we want to see price bounce and conviction from the bulls to push BTC to higher highs. The goal for Bears would be to achieve the measured move up to 180K. This would most potentially shorted the bull run (time prospective) and potentially cap our ATH for this cycle early; creating a distribution zone similar to the 2021 cycle top.
* Breaking below the Orange Trend Line Scenario: If we break the Orange Trend Line then Bulls will concede ground to the MA levels (allowing the CME gap to also close). Bulls will write this off as a market reset and holding support at these levels will entice Traders to take positions needed to drive BTC up sustainably to the next higher level(s).
Losing the MAs would ask serious questions to the intent of BULLs and the sustainability of the market moving forward this bull run.....
Or do we have to wait for longer?Here we assume that XRP won't go after the ATH just yet. We will have to see if #Bitcoin chills out for a moment and starts either distributing or slightly correcting to $98-100K regions. We can then assume the corrective wave (primary W4) will be deeper or a more complex variant (here presumed an expanded flat). The flat correction would allow for consolidation and a potential RSI reset, possibly forming a bullish divergence to signal a reversal which is typical between waves 3 and 5.
A clear break of the lower trendline and failure to hold $1.97 would validate this scenario. The invalidation for this scenario will be taking out the recently set high at $2.9. Given the corrective nature of expanded flats, completion of this structure could extend into early 2025, aligning with broader market uncertainties and potential shifts in macro sentiment.
Can we set a new ATH before 2025?This scenario presents a classic Ending Diagonal structure for Primary Wave (5), where XRP has likely completed Wave (4) near $1.90 and is now advancing upward to set new ATH. After entering price discovery and everybody FOMOs in, a significant portion of HODLers will start taking profits which will slow down the momentum and eventually leads to the formation of a bearish divergence marking the end of the impulse.
The first major resistance is the current high at $2.9 then the 2017's ATH at $3.31, from which we can expect a smaller degree correction.
For this scenario to unfold, we will need a steady momentum. Then we can expect it to set a new ATH before the end of year. Personally, my targets for this would be somewhere between $4 and $7 by late Jan to early Feb 2025, given the current pace and Trump's inauguration (and maybe SEC settlement?).
AES Corporation - Short term view with strong supportSo first of all both price and indicators are confirming the downtrend.
Today NYSE:AES opened with a gap succeeding yesterday's equilibrium in price with doji candles.
The price is still in the middle of the regression line and in the next few days the price don't seems to be close to upper 2 SD.
In the print above the yellow line shows the support at $11.43. The image's time horizon starts at the end of 2006.
Furthermore looking at short ratio available online the value is about 2,7 from mid October as well as more than 22M short interest
Bitcoin: Hold now, buy laterHello,
Bitcoin is a clear uptrend as the price is above the moving averages, as the picture on the left side of the chart shows. Technical indicators like Ultimate Oscillator, ADX, MOM, and MACD are bullish. However, RSI indicators are overbought, which means Bitcoin might go higher, but there'll be a better time to buy when the market corrects the overbought conditions. I hold my Bitcoins, but I won't buy any more until the upcoming correction, which might come soon.
Regards,
Ely
S&P500 Weekly - Toppy SituationDivergence between price and the RSI oscillator, and between price and the MACD oscillator indicate that the current situation going into 2025 is a toppy one. One might consider watching these oscillators and being on the lookout for a shorting opportunity or a bullish resolution of the divergence (less likely) through Q1.
Nasdaq Bounce or Break? 21340 Becomes the BattlegroundNasdaq futures may have seen an ugly decline following the Fed’s rate decision but it’s noteworthy the price remained respectful of technical levels, bouncing off 21340.75 at the height of the carnage.
It’s far too early to call a bottom, especially with momentum indicators mixed: MACD has crossed over from above, generating a bearish signal, but the long-running uptrend in RSI (14) remains intact. Therefore, rather than trying to anticipate directional risks based on thin volumes going through in Asian trade, I’d much rather see how the price action evolves into Europe and US.
If the price tests and holds again 21340.75, longs could be established above the level with a stop beneath for protection. Apart from a minor level at 21608, there’s little visual resistance until the record highs.
Alternatively, if the price breaks 21340.75 and cannot reverse back higher, you could flip the setup around, selling beneath the level with a stop above for protection. 20984 and important 50-day moving average are nearby levels of note, with a break of the latter opening the possibility of a deeper flush towards 20400.
More broadly, for the carnage witnessed following the Fed, its updated rate projections were not significantly different to what traders were anticipating before the event. And when you step back and look at where markets see the funds rate bottoming this cycle, it’s around 70bps higher than where the Fed’s dot plot indicated.
What the Fed signalled was a slower pace of cuts, not a large reduction in cuts. One 25bps move was removed from the profile by the end of 2027. That’s it. Based on the market reaction, you’d think multiple cuts were removed!
That makes me think the move was more about market positioning rather than a truly monumental hawkish shift, making me question how long the rout can be sustained when that reality sets in.
The key is whether it can be supported in the support zone
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(NAS100USD 1D chart)
Support zone
1st: Left Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (21039.7) ~ 21348.0
2nd: 19582.6
However, when the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart is touched, whether it is supported or not is important.
The next volatility period is expected to be around December 26th.
If it is maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it is expected to eventually rise to the left Fibonacci ratio 2.618 (23557.7) ~ right Fibonacci ratio 1.27 (23962.1) and re-determine the trend.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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GBP/NZD Overbought, slight correction - short term tradeHi guys, making up a short term trade on the GBP/NZD ,because it is very overbought and has reached higher resistance level on 1H time frame and 4H time frames.
Entry : 2.21970
Target: 2.20998
Stop : 2.22452
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
WazirX (WRX)On the above 6-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal in April 2021 (not shown). Now is the time to be long. Why?
1) You know why.
2) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts.
3) Multiple oscillators print bullish divergence over 120 day period.
4) Point no. (3) occurs on past resistance.
Is it possible for price action to fall further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: Don’t know.
Return: HKEX:19 / 100x
#BTCUSDT #4h (Bitget Futures) Rising wedge on resistanceBitcoin uptrend looks exhausted and keeps getting rejected on overbought RSI zone, a retracement down to 100EMA support seems around the corner.
⚡️⚡️ #BTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: Bitget Futures
Signal Type: Regular (Short)
Leverage: Isolated (15.0X)
Amount: 5.0%
Current Price:
106966.8
Entry Zone:
107142.0 - 108740.0
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 104521.8
1) 101946.7
1) 99371.7
Stop Targets:
1) 110802.2
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:BTC BITGET:BTCUSDT.P #4h #Bitcoin bitcoin.org
Risk/Reward= 1:1.2 | 1:2.1 | 1:3.0
Expected Profit= +47.5% | +83.3% | +119.1%
Possible Loss= -39.8%
Estimated Gaintime= 1-2 weeks
EconOptic| BTC's bullish move isn't done yet!KUCOIN:BTCUSDT
**Bitcoin Technical Analysis for Today in 4-Hour Timeframe**
Bitcoin is currently moving within an ascending channel in the 4-hour timeframe, forming higher highs and higher lows. Based on this trend, our goal is to align with the price's upward movement and open long positions. Given the market's high volatility, it is essential to set wider and more secure stop losses and enter trades only with strong triggers to minimize risks during potential price consolidations.
At present, the price is interacting with the midline support of the ascending channel. The decreasing volume of bearish candles and their shrinking size indicate a possible power shift from sellers to buyers in a short-term cycle. Additionally, this level coincides with Bitcoin's previous resistance, which has now turned into support, acting as a crucial barrier against further declines. This confluence with the channel's midline creates a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ).
On the other hand, the RSI is moving along the lower Bollinger Band, which, in an uptrend, signals the exhaustion of selling pressure and the potential resurgence of buyers. This serves as further confirmation for seeking a reliable trigger to open a long position.
The entry trigger for a long position in this analysis is marked at the price level of **107,538** with a green line. Upon price stabilization above this level, you can proceed with a buy position. The stop loss placement depends on your risk tolerance and expectations:
- For a closer stop loss, you may place it around the white line and the midline of the channel.
- For a safer stop loss, set it below the red line at **99,422**, which coincides with the SMA 99 and provides an additional barrier to further price drops.
**Conclusion:**
Considering the confluence of support factors, reduced selling pressure, and technical indicators, Bitcoin appears poised to continue its upward trend. However, adhering to risk management principles and entering trades only with confirmed triggers is crucial to capitalize on this movement.
Entering the volatility period
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If USDT and USDC continue their gap uptrend, I think it is a sign that funds are flowing into the coin market.
I think that for the altcoin bull market to start, BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and be maintained or continue to fall.
Therefore, the key is whether it can fall after receiving resistance near the M-Signal indicator or Fibonacci ratio 0.5 (57.95) on the 1W chart.
The decline in USDT dominance is likely to result in a rise in the coin market.
The USDT dominance is expected to touch around 2.84 at the most.
Therefore, the key is whether it can fall after receiving resistance near 3.99-4.16.
If the USDT dominance rises above 4.97, the coin market is likely to show a sharp decline.
Therefore, if it is maintained above 4.97, I think the coin market is likely to turn into a downtrend.
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(BTCUSDT 1W chart)
If BTC continues to rise like this, I also hope so.
However, since the StochRSI indicator is maintained at 100 and the StochRSI EMA indicator is approaching 100, BTC will eventually show a downward trend.
Therefore, even if it continues to rise further, it will touch the Fibonacci ratio 2 (106178.85) and show a downward trend.
The StochRSI indicator does not tell us how much the fluctuation will occur.
If it starts to decline,
1st: 87.8K-89K
2nd: 79.9K-80.9K
There is a possibility that it will touch the 1st and 2nd areas above.
If not, and it shows a sideways pattern, it seems that volatility is likely to occur when touching the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
The volatility period on the 1W chart is around the week including December 23rd.
Therefore, it can be seen that the volatility period is from December 16th to January 5th.
If the BW(100) indicator or the HA-High indicator is newly created during the volatility period, it is important to see if it can be supported near it.
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(1D chart)
I will update after a new candle is created.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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Cycle Top Indicator [CTI] | Deep Dive AnalysisIn this post we will look at some of the long-term trends identified with the tracking of the CTI indicator (Red and Green Moving averages in the price chart), and what we can learn from the observed behaviors over Cycle 1 / 2 / 3 and possible implications for Cycle 4.
INDICATOR RECAP
The CTI indicator attempts to model the cycle top based on observed historic price over extension from Cycle 1 / 2. Indicator marks a cycle top when the 'Fast MA' (Red Line) crosses above the 'Slow MA' (Green Line). I.e. the condition where both MAs price value is equal. I should be noted that this condition was achieve for every cycle to date so far, and that the condition was met twice for the experienced 'double peak top' in Cycle 1 but was only met for the first of the two peak tops during Cycle 3.
OSCILLATOR: % DISTANCE MODELLED BETWEEN SLOW (GREEN MA) & FAST (RED MA) – NORMALISED TO PRICE
The below oscillator models the %Distance away from each other the Green Line and the Red line gets over BTC's cycles (Normalised to Price).
* RED HORIZONTAL LINE: When the oscillator is equal to 1, this models the price value of the Green and Red moving averages as equal (or the CTI cycle top condition)
* ORANGE HORIZONTAL LINE(s): These mark the maximum over extension the Red MA exceeded the Green MA during a cycle top condition.
* GREEN HORIZONTAL LINE(s): These mark low levels of the oscillator, indicator maximum distance of the Red MA below the Green MA during each cycle.
BLACK SLOPING TREND LINE(s): Represent the diminishing trend of overlap between the Green and Red Mas each cycle.
* VERTICAL RED AND GREEN LINES: Show cycle tops and bottoms as triggered by the CTI and CBI (Cycle Bottom Indicators) – NOTE: CBI moving averages not shown.
SIGNIFICANCE OF ORANGE HORIZONTAL & BLACK TREND LINES
It is observable that each peak of the Oscillator is lower than the previous cycle peak (each peak is marked with an Orange horizontal line). This diminishing trend is shown with each orange line marked lower than the line before, and modeled with the Black downward sloping trend line(s) connecting the peaks.
A reminder that the Red Horizontal line shows the condition with the CTI models the cycle top and conditions above the Red Horizontal line show the % distance the Red MA reaches above the Green MA each cycle. For example:
* Cycle 1 Peak = 1.58
* Cycle 2 First peak = 1.25
* Cycle 2 Second peak = 1.20
* Cycle 3 First peak = 1.07
The diminishing trend of this relationship over each cycle (if historic behavior continues) suggest that the CTI overlap condition for cycle 4 my not eventuate. This would be modeled by our oscillator not exceeding the red line in Cycle 4.
The learnings for this analysis could suggest that waiting for the CTI indicator to Fire may result in a non-event for Cycle 4.
SIGNIFICANCE OF GREEN HORIZONTAL LINES
A surprising finding from this analysis show for all cycles to date that when the modeled oscillator reaches levels between -1.11 and -1.82 and particularly for Cycles 2 / 3 & 4 between -1.50 & -1.82 (Red MA % distance below the Grean MA), Historically BTC has found its cycle bottom. These findings are summarized below for quick reference.
* CYCLE 1-4 Bottom Oscillator Condition: -1.11 <> -1.82
* CYCLE 2-4 Bottom Oscillator Condition: -1.50 <> -1.82
Feel free to include any other observations I may have missed in the comments below. i intend to do a similar analysis for the CBI indicator when I find the time.
PepsiCo Limps at Key SupportPepsiCo has struggled all year, and some traders may think the food-and-beverage giant is breaking down.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the October 2023 low of $155.83. PEP bounced at the level in November and is now revisiting it. Is support giving way?
Next, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) recently crossed below the 100- and 200-day SMAs. The 100-day SMA is also below the 200-day SMA. That pattern (faster SMAs below slower SMAs) may be consistent with a longer-term downtrend.
Third, MACD is falling.
Finally, lower highs over the last three quarters may be consistent with bearish sentiment.
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My McClellan Oscillator Graph - Up or Down in the Markets?This is a huge factor to watch, something to consider, Santa Claus Rally expected, or not?
I have had many financial analysts for decades always point out this chart when the markets seem toppy or indecisive.
The Dow has closed 9 days in a row, first time since the 70s, that's quite interesting, let's watch to see if the theory behind this indicator proves we are in for a rally as I expect.
The markets always tend to go higher more than one might think.