PZZA Wave Analysis – 2 May 2025- PZZA reversed from the support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 40.00
PZZA recently reversed from the support zone between the long-term support level 30.00 (which started the sharp weekly uptrend at the start of 2020) and the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (5) from the end of 2024.
Given the strength of the support level 30.00 and the oversold weekly Stochastic, PZZA can be expected to rise to the next round resistance level 40.00.
Oscillators
Starbucks Wave Analysis – 2 May 2025
- Starbucks reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance levels 85.00 and 90.00
Starbucks recently reversed up from the support zone between the key support level 76.20 (which stopped the previous wave A at the start of April) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the C-wave of the previous intermediate ABC correction (2) from the start of March.
Given the strength of the support level 76.20 and the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, Starbucks can be expected to rise to the next resistance levels 85.00 and 90.00.
Nvidia May Be Fighting HigherNvidia has been rebounding along with the broader market, and some traders may think it’s getting ready to accelerate.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the April 9 high of $115.10. The chip giant has challenged that level in the last two sessions. A close above that resistance may be viewed as confirmation of a breakout.
Second is the series of lower highs since mid-February. NVDA closed above that falling trendline yesterday and remains above it today.
Third, MACD has turned higher.
Finally, NVDA is a highly active underlier in the options market. (It averages 3.9 million contracts per day ranks first in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
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Bitcoin Terminal Price Risk IndicatorToday we’ll explore the Bitcoin Terminal Price Risk Indicator , which builds on the concept of Bitcoin Terminal Price. We’ll follow the same logic as in our previous idea on the Pi Cycle Top Risk Indicator. By the end, we'll have a new tool for analyzing INDEX:BTCUSD market cycles.
First, let’s recap Terminal Price.
Terminal Price = Transferred Price × 21
Transferred Price = Coin Days Destroyed ÷ (supply × time)
It normalizes historical spending behavior to the full 21M BTC supply. This metric has historically been effective at calling Bitcoin cycle tops whenever the price of Bitcoin crosses above it. That being said, it signaled the April 2021 peak, but not the November one.
Let’s now divide the weekly BTC price by Terminal Price. This gives us BTC-to-Terminal Price Ratio. (We use the formula from the Bitcoin Master Cycle indicator by InvestorUnknown for Terminal Price on TradingView.)
When the ratio crosses above 1, BTC price exceeds Terminal Price and signals cycle top. We can notice that each cycle top forms slightly lower ratio peaks.
Now let’s draw two logarithmic curves through the highs and lows of this ratio, and add a midline.
This creates a band within which the BTC-to-Terminal Price ratio tends to oscillate. These bounds can help anticipate major turning points in future market cycles.
Next, we normalize the ratio between these bounds: bottom curve = 0, top curve = 1.
This gives us the Bitcoin Terminal Price Risk Indicator.
Currently, risk sits around 0.46 , bouncing between 0.3 and 0.6 for ~1.5 years. This range suggests a stepwise price increase with consolidation periods in between — and no mania and blow-off top.
Historically:
Risk > 0.9 = potential selling zone
Risk < 0.1 (or < 0.05) = potential buying zone
Note: Risk stays > 0.9 for just 1–2 weeks.
Reality check: the top curve lies above 1 and slopes down only slightly.
This implies that if the ratio approaches the upper boundary, BTC price could meet or exceed Terminal Price this cycle — currently ~$155K and will be rising quickly should BTC move towards it.
However, so far we have very few data points and they don’t fit the curve perfectly. And there’s no guarantee we’ll reach that upper bound.
For a more conservative take, we can replace the log curve with straight lines.
This steeper upper line would signal a top earlier — below Terminal Price.
Using this method, risk is slightly higher now at 0.55. While also not perfect, this linear approximation can serve as a cautious alternative until more data points emerge.
We'll keep tracking these charts.
AMKTcryptomarket | JTOUSDTHello to all AMKT friends, I hope you are well. 😍
Today we will review the JTO token.
In the monthly and weekly timeframes, this token is in a range (minor trend) after the sharp rise, and the failure of this range box along with the increase in volume can cause amazing growth of this token.
In the daily timeframe, we are involved in the white dynamic resistance level, and in the four-hour timeframe, we can enter a long position after the failure and consolidation above 1.899 and the dynamic level. For further confirmation, we can wait for an increase in volume or a break of 60.08 in RSI
Have a good day
WTI: Break It or Bounce ItIf other cyclical asset classes are rallying like a global recession can be avoided, then why shouldn’t crude oil? Yes, there are reports OPEC+ may increase output again, and we know Donald Trump wants lower prices, but those factors should already be priced in. The true swing factor is demand—and if it’s not about to fall in a heap, why should crude?
We’ve now seen three violent rallies from beneath $57.30, including when the level was established in early 2021. If price were to return to those levels in the near-term, it could offer a decent swing trade. Longs could be established above with a stop beneath for protection, targeting a run back to $60.45, a minor level that acted as both support and resistance in April. If that were to give way, a move towards key resistance at $65.27 could follow.
Another option would be to wait for a sustained push above $60.45, allowing longs to be established on the break with a stop beneath, targeting $65.27. Of the two setups, this one screens as higher risk given how lightly $60.45 has been tested.
Momentum remains with the bears, which normally favours selling rips over buying dips. But in these headline-driven markets, that signal may not carry its usual weight. For what it’s worth, downside momentum is easing for now.
A close beneath $57.30 would invalidate the countertrend bullish setup.
Good luck!
DS
Deutsche Bank AG to 21 EuroDespite the chaos with Credit Suisse European banks in General are printing some excellent setups. What is the reason for this? No idea.
On the above 2-month chart:
1) A strong buy signal (not shown) prints with price action breakout from resistance that has been active since 2007.
2) Regular bullish divergence. No less than eight oscillators this time. Four to five oscillators printing on this time frame is incredibly powerful but eight?!
3) Inverse head and shoulders pattern. Confirmation is price action closing above 10.50 and staying there or above for a week or two. On confirmation a target of 21 euro should be expected.
4) The yellow line is the 21/2-month EMA. Notice the first attempt to hold as support has failed? (Orange arrow). This was the first attempt to hold as support since July 2005. Confirmation of support is price action at 10.50 and above by the month of May.
5) Almost EVERY idea on tradingview is 'short' / Bearish! Ww is the 5%. What in?
Is it possible price action falls further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: Investment
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: Don’t know.
Return: 110%
Stop loss: 7.20
Fall Down to $70 ApproachingWith the RSI above average since mid-April 2025, the trend has been steadily rising up to $82 per share even breaking the highs from late February and March.
Price projected onto both (A and B) Inside pitchforks is well above the median line. In the pitchfork A the price is even directly touching the upper parallel line.
Reversal near the highest achieved price this year on 21st February is probable
Based on these indications, we can expect a fall to around $70 somewhere in the middle of May.
Key details:
RSI over "overbought" level
Price in both Inside pitchforks near the upper parallel line
Longer uptrend = breakdown necessary
ASX 200 Futures Stare Down Resistance Ahead of Pivotal ThursdayThursday looms as an important session for Australian ASX 200 SPI futures, with the price approaching a tough layer of technical resistance overhead.
Horizontal resistance at 8135, the 200-day moving average at 8142, and the October 2023 uptrend around 8180 all stand between a potential run back towards the record highs set earlier this year or a possible reversal towards 8000. The price has already broken below the uptrend established from the April lows, although the late fightback in overnight trade suggests bulls won’t give up just yet.
Momentum indicators continue to trend higher in positive territory, favouring a bullish bias that prefers buying dips over selling rips.
If price fails to break and close above the 200DMA, it creates an opportunity to establish shorts targeting a pullback to 8000, a psychologically important level. The 50-day moving average is also nearby at 7956. A stop above the 200DMA would protect against a continuation of the prevailing trend.
Alternatively, a break and close above the 200DMA would flip the setup, allowing for longs to be established with a stop below for protection. 8280—having acted as both support and resistance earlier this year—would be a logical upside target. Beyond that, a retest of the former record highs would be on the cards.
Good luck!
DS
Technical Analysis: Ethereum (ETH) — April 30, 2025📊 Outlook
Ethereum is trading in a tight range with slight upward momentum. Current RSI is neutral, and price remains above the 50-day SMA, hinting at a sustained bullish trend. The Fear & Greed Index supports this positive sentiment. A break above $2,000 could confirm bullish continuation, while a drop below $1,700 may shift sentiment to bearish.
📌 Analyst Note: Maintain bullish bias while ETH remains above $1,790.66. Monitor resistance at $2,000 for breakout confirmation.
🔍 Indicators
RSI (14): 51.60 — Neutral
SMA 50: $1,790.66 — Price slightly above → Bullish
30-Day Volatility: 4.97%
Fear & Greed Index: 61 (Greed)
Technical Sentiment: Bullish
📈 Levels
Next Resistance: ~$2,000
Next Support: ~$1,700
Short-Term Price Target: $1,804.35 by May 30, 2025
EURCAD Wave Analysis – 30 April 2025
- EURCAD reversed from resistance level 1.5880
- Likely to fall to support level 1.5495
EURCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 1.5880 (which has been reversing the price from the start of July) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from 2022.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.5880 created the weekly Shooting Star – a strong sell signal for EURCAD.
Given the overbought daily Stochastic and the strength of the resistance level 1.5880, EURCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.5495.
NZDUSD Wave Analysis – 30 April 2025
- NZDUSD reversed from the resistance level 0.6020
- Likely to fall to support level 0.5800
NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 0.6020 (former top of wave 2 from November) intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from September.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.6020 started the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the overbought daily Stochastic, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.5800, the former resistance from March and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave 1.
GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 30 April 2025
- GBPUSD reversed from the long-term resistance level 1.3430
- Likely to fall to support level 1.3200
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the long-term resistance level 1.3430 (previous yearly high from last year) standing close to the upper daily and weekly Bollinger Bands.
The price also earlier reversed down from the resistance level 1.3430 creating the weekly Shooting Star last week.
Given the overbought weekly Stochastic and the strength of the resistance level 1.3430, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3200.
Kiwi in Trouble? Momentum Turns as NZD/USD Tests SupportTraders should be alert to a potential downside break in NZD/USD.
Sitting in a descending triangle and having printed a bearish engulfing candle on Tuesday, a clean break below .5930 would generate a setup where shorts could be established with a stop above the level for protection. The 200-day moving average screens as an initial target, with .5854 another after that.
Bullish momentum is waning with RSI (14) trending lower while MACD is curling lower. The momentum signal is therefore more neutral than bullish, putting increased emphasis on price action near-term.
Good luck!
DS
GBPJPY bearish move🔹 Pair / TF | GBP/JPY, 1 h → 15 m |
| 🔹 Bias | Bearish (selling the break of support) |
1. 📊 Key Levels
Level Price Role
R1 191.721 Major resistance (green)
Broken Support 190.65 (black line) Minor support → now resistance
R4 189.828 Next minor support
R2 189.355 Next major support
2. 🚨 Trigger
Price closes below the 190.65 support (black line) on 1 h, AND
200-hour MA (red) has just been rejected—sellers stepping in.
This decisive break flips 190.65 into new resistance.
3. ✅ Confirmation
RFI oscillator on 15 m dips below its rising trendline and fails to reclaim it.
Momentum is clearly bearish—no divergence or oversold reversal signal.
4. 🎯 Entry & Stops
| 🔶 Entry Zone | 0.19060–0.19050 (just below 190.65) | | 🔴 Stop-Loss | 0.19180 (above R1 at 191.72) ≈ 120 pips |
Place a Sell-Stop at 0.19055 (mid-zone).
Risk: 1–2% of account on ~120-pip SL.
5. 🎯 Profit Targets
Target Level Pips RRR
T1 R4 189.828 ~82 pips 1 : 0.7
T2 R2 189.355 ~125 pips 1 : 1
Scale out:
Exit ½ at T1.
Let the rest run to T2.
6. ⚙️ Trade Management
Move SL to breakeven once +40 pips in profit.
Monitor RFI on 15 m:
If RFI spikes above its trendline before T1, close remaining.
Adjust if you see large wicks or volume spikes into support zones.
7. 🔑 Rationale
Support→Resistance flip at 190.65 gives a logical entry & SL.
200-hour MA rejection confirms sellers overpowering buyers.
RFI confirms sustained bearish momentum.
High RRR (>1 : 1) ensures edge even with a moderate win-rate.
⚡ Highlight:
This is a bank-order-flow style fade—selling the break of minor support after a MA confluence test, riding momentum into larger support zones.
AUSSIE bearish move Short-setup: Breakdown of Support (AUD/USD)
Trigger: Price has decisively broken below R3 (0.63888) and the 200-hour MA (red) on the 1h chart.
Confirmation: RFI just dipped below its ascending trendline and failed to reclaim it—momentum is bearish.
Entry: Short at market 0.6385–0.6380 (just below R3).
Initial Stop: Above R1 (0.64395) ≈ 55 pips stop.
Targets:
T1: S1 (0.63436) (~40 pips → RRR ≈ 1 : 0.7)
T2: R4 (0.63308) (~55 pips → RRR ≈ 1 : 1)
⚡ Highlight: This is a bank-order-flow style fade—selling the break of minor support after a test of the 200-hour MA confluence.
🔑 Rationale
Support→Resistance flip at R3 gives logical entry & SL.
200-hour MA rejection confirms sellers overpowering buyers.
RFI confirms sustained bearish momentum.
High RRR (>1:1) ensures edge even with moderate win-rate.