USDJPY Presents A Shorting OpportunityNote previous weekly range retracements at the OTE short sweet spot (.705 Fibonacci retracement level) & less than encouraging RSI.. Take profit at the expected .382 retracement.
OTE
Bitcoin: A Longterm OutlookIt might take a couple years before another rally.
The next 4 months I expect price failing at the red trend line and coming back down to 220-300 depending on how strong demand is there and therefore if it's worth for whales to try running the stops bellow 230.
The 800-900 target is derived from meassuring the distance at the widest place within the triangle, and projecting that same distance (150%) from the (expected) breakout point upwards.
Trading Plan Oct-NovBUY: new high, break of 248
TP: along the targets up to 281
SELL: break of black trend line & failure to break 248
TP: around 232.5 - 235 / Build a new long position from there.
HOLD: if you are long, the break of the C&H neckline indicated that price will try to reach the C&H target 256-258
A break of 248 would indicate that price will be trying to reach the double bottom target 268 - 273
OTE SELL ZONE: Look for reversal signals there and establish a short position
The white & red forecast drawings are just for the purpose of orientation.
Outlook for next months--- Please readjust the scaling so that the spiral sits just above recent price action ---
We are still in the process of consolidation.
In my opinion, the recent drop should not be interpreted as a meaningfull breakdown.
It's still within the acceptable range.
Price bounced of the longest possible MA at 222 (using Bitstamp due to good historic data).
A break (not pierce!) of the red upsloping line would give a clear sell signal with targets in the OTE buy zone 186-200.
Also consider the yellow trendline crossing the OTE zone.
A buying signal is a bit more complex so I subdivided it into 3 signals:
1. Buy : cross of red spiral and no new lows after that.
2. Buy : break of green trend line and holding the 231 level.
3. Buy : break of red log dowtrend line + breaking & holding of strong resistance at 260 for more confirmation
The target depends on how long you would you like to stick to your longs.
I would close all longs at 340 - 375 levels max.
Good luck ! : ]
Bullseye candidate: OTE LongBuying at OTE level
... I know , I know my stops are always too tight ^^
ICT Optimal Trade Entry & Bullish Order Block CandidateI will be monitoring this potential setup this week heading into Monday & Tuesday. We have Fed Rate release on Wednesday so much like last week, I will anticipate my weekly quota before Wednesday's fundamental economic driver.
If we exhibit strong bullish technical at a ICT Killzone being London Open and or New York Killzone I will look for a "bounce", not a bottom to post in Cable. Longer term we are going lower folks.
GLGT
Bitcoin - Seasonal Opportunity within the chaos (1 of 2)Hello all,
After what can only be described as a parabolic move in the US$, we have seen one by one the world's 'risk' assets slowly work their way back down to earth. Weather it be, gold, oil or now even stocks, the bubble of the US Federal Reserve Board's QE program is deflating. Bitcoin too it would seem has been caught up in this deflationary spiral as it has seen its' value drop by 50% over just the past four months and nearly 75% from it's peak only ten month's ago....kaboom.
Macro economic backdrop
The current deflationary pressure is warranted in my opinion as it appears the US economy no longer needs to be force feed liquidity to keep it afloat. Unfortunately, through 'fear' cycles our society inevitably will be net sellers of assets as the baby boomers liquidate life savings to pay for retirement. The problem is, when too many of them rush the exits all at once the market can get overwhelmed very quickly. Couple that with poor ethical decisions by political leaders (US housing crisis....ty Jr. Bush and the whole elite superstructure) and one literally has the makings of an economic disaster written all over it. Without such extreme measures like Quantitative Easing asset prices would have gone through the 2008 lows and stayed down (a la Great Depression). Considering too the West's reliance on deficit spending (ty Mr. Regan) and one can clearly see that letting the economy find it's 'natural' footing (as Mr. Hoover advocated for through his respective 'fear' cycle tenure) simply was not an option. Through the force feeding of the QE programs, asset prices have risen enough to be able to absorb more selling if needed. Indeed, stock prices themselves could easily fall 50% from current levels and still not threaten those 2008 lows. Quantitative easing has worked, it has bought the market some time but this all that it has done. Keep in mind, this is not a strong economy to begin with. Due to structural issues short term interest rates in North America are at/near zero for a reason and now just the suggestion of removing the QE programs has been enough to bring whatever economic expansion that existed into question. On top of this, Neither Asia nor Europe seem ready willing or able to pick up the proverbial slack in demand at the moment. It seems to me, with both the US$ rally and the stock market break, the market is searching for the point at which it will get the US Fed to resume the QE programs. How far lower do asset prices need to fall in order to get them to act? That of course, is the $64,000 question! As the famous Mortimer Duke would say, 'turn those machines back on!, turn those machines back on!'...
Seasonal backdrop
In the face of the scenario outlined above, we have a number of seasonal forces that are helping the bear along. These include repatriation of assets into the US Federal Government's fiscal year end which happens to be exacerbated because of the 'carry trade', reporting of typically weak late summer earnings, liquidation of agricultural assets in size and of course the Vernal Equinox. This is a big time for change in markets and we retail investors are often handed some incredible opportunities through the later part of the window. As one market technician I love (Don Vialoux) would say, 'buy when it snows and sell when it goes'..
end of part 1....
US equity ownership - a very risky propositionHello all,
I was recently asked about Boeing Corporation (BA) and so I thought I would take a few minutes today and take a good look at how its chart looks. I was asked about 'investing' dollars and when ever I consider an investment it is always best to work off the higher time frame charts. The weekly chart gives you a nice broader picture of price action and tonne to the market.
Regardless of your opinion of the company or the state of the broader global economy, I for one would take extreme caution when it comes to this stock. While she hasn't broken down just yet, there are mounting signs a correction within this name (and probably for the broader market in general) seems awfully overdue. That 'top' may take many forms but is generally of the 'M' fashion. Very much like its last cycle peak, should we start to see lower highs and lower lows, bulls should be very leery. Indeed, a move just back to my '1st stop' target is almost 20% lower from current levels. A move back into the OTE (long) zone is half of today's prices.....jinkies
From a shorter term time perspective, I am sure, aggressive traders are shorting up top here and risking to a break of that 144.57 high. They will know they are 'golden' on those shorts if 118 is taken out in earnest. Not a bad risk/reward considering the potential downside profit window. Having said that, taking a trade like that brings with it a bunch of factors (risk profile, account size, trading plan, etc) that are not part of this analysis.
So my simple message to 'investors' is this, It is WAY too late to consider new purchases and any ideas of buying should at the very least be put on hold until the current trading range resolves itself. Considering the current proximity to the top of the weekly trading channel, my hunch is the next serious bullish resolution won't be for a while. Had you taken the bullish consolidation breakout 'buy' (from around $80) you should at the very least be looking to sell half your position at double your purchase price. You are 'up' a lot and you have lots of 'wiggle' room should a correction need to occur. Should that 'M' top be confirmed (move through 118.77) those long positions could be liquidated with the anticipation to buy them back on the next 'W'. That has yet to happen though so don't put the cart before the horse. For the time being, price is sideways and 'consolidating' and nothing more. Considering the highs are only 10% away, if this is still a bull market those highs will be broken easily.
Cheers all and hope you can you this information to your benefit.
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BTC (Finex) at a bit of a crossroads (15m perspective)Hello all,
On the heels of some dramatic price action of late, it is both encouraging and interesting to see the broader Bitcoin community come alive again with activity. Interest in learning Technical analysis is palatable and it really makes what I do fun. While I have considered myself a 'student-of-the-market' for more than 20 years, I have only been following BTC since December, 2013 and the past six months have been a very interesting tutorial on how bear cycles (or 'corrections') play themselves out. Considering Bitcoin's current and historical volatility, I suppose the quiet market of April/May was more the exception then the norm. With that volatility should come the understanding that price has/can/will move 10% or more within a very short period of time. A trade that moves against you (without rigid risk management strategies) can and will hurt a lot. Indeed, this is when analysts need to consider all possibilities given the current environment, only take setups that are within their plan and for heavens sake, always put yourself in a position to be able to fight another day. (shameless plug.....for help with this please refer to my online courses and tutorial materials),,,
So, with all this in mind I thought I would weigh in on two perfectly legitimate scenarios I could see play out over the coming sessions.
Bearish: Considering higher time frame bias (bearish daily) a continuation down into the $500 area isn't out of the question. Knowing the market never moves in a straight line one can us The BoT to trade their way down into that zone. Currently a bearish ab=cd setup is working. Shorts from 562.45 with initial stops (still working, missed 'stop to break-even level 536.91 by $5...ugh) at $588.01 are acceptable. Target currently is $485.81 and represents a 3:1 r/r.
Bullish: Considering the severity of the move down, one shouldn't be surprised at the idea of a 'dead-cat-bounce' back into resistance. Considering too, the recent completion of a bearish BoT setup, one has to wonder if going to the well one too many times is asking for too much. The initial test of the 38.2 Fib (579.39) and now the potential reversal here off the OTE (long) sweet spot (70.5% Fib or 541.39) has setup a bottoming zone. If a bottom was to form this is, imho, where it is going to happen. A bullish resolution through the zone sets up a rally back into the OTE (short) zone which just so happens to be right on a trend line and the 200 sma.
Personal conclusion: Considering higher time frame bias and the fact that this counter trend rally expectation would represent nothing more than a move back into an area institutions would consider selling into, my inclination is one would need to see more bullish technical evidence to support buying at current levels. We have the smatterings of a bottom, but that is all it is to me at this point. Should price action consolidate for a bit here that bullish case may gain some traction.
As a professional market technician, I must respect where we are on the chart and what the market is trying to tell me. I must be flexible in stance, consider all possibilities and put my expectations going forward into perspective. My greatest hope is you can use these levels and notes to help in your trade process and expectation too.
Cheers all and hope it helps
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4 hr BTC - Fast approaching targets/resistance (2 of 2)(con't)
Scenario 2. Assuming we have turned the corner and are now in a bull market (frankly, its hard not to be a bull looking at this chart...oops, personal opinion aside...lol). We will know for sure we are back in a secular bull if those previous highs at 719.25 are broken in earnest. Ideally, the break of that level will bring in a wave of new buying volume and the cycle continues as those that bought below are insulated by new buyers above. While volume on this latest move higher may be suspect, there is currently no top in price and recent consolidations have been shallow. Those that wish to try and 'pick tops' may chose to do so at their peril, I for one shall not be a part of that camp. The bull is in charge at the moment, the question is, has he run out of steam? Interestingly, institutions probably wouldn't consider buying and probably won't be buyers of size for some time to come. Indeed, BTC's fate is (in my opinion) now up to the broader market and the initial inertia the institutional buying below has generated. There are several fundamental events shortly (Stock IPO's etc) to look forward to so we shall see if the proverbial match they have lit will cause the fire to catch. The key here is buying (big green bar volume) & OBV. OBV is ok but the latest surge in price did not generate a higher big green bar. While not a 'sell' signal in itself, if we fail to produce a new higher volume bar going forward it will be hard to justify price. Willy just had an 'upthrust' so lets see where he can take us before he gets 'stupid' again (if he get there at all). Additionally, while one may start to lose faith in indicators that spit out signals yet fail to deliver results, momentum ultimately wont' be denied - three times a charm, or something like that...lol.... It may take some time to clean itself up, but my hunch is smart money won't be buying in earnest until momentum bottoms. When it does (coupled with price) those are ultimately the best trade locations. So if I am a buyer, I recon I should be watching the $547 (38.2 fib) and $500 (61.8 fib) areas over the short term. They both have trend line support and are psychologically important. I really like the $500 area because of its proximity to the 200 period sma and the fact that it is indeed a really big bfrn (big fat round number).
So put it all together and I think the long / bull Bitcoin community should give itself a big pat on the back for both hanging in through a tough winter/spring of 2014 and hopefully being able to line their pockets rather nicely through the rally. It appears both public bearish sentiment and anticipated institutional interest coincided perfectly. In my opinion, a floor has been established on the crypto-currency by institutional players and pullbacks into 'defended' levels ought to represent buying opportunities going forward. The ultimate question really now is, will those pullbacks happen at all.....fingers crossed...
Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit...
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Thank you again for your donations. To date all donations have been used for trading purposes. I am still long 1/3 of my original position (currently .20 coins) with $500USD on the sidelines ready to buy more.....ty again all
Any OTE reference should have an appropriate foot note. I learned the technique from Inner Circle Trader (YouTube) and he should get credit for its legitimacy.
BTC 4hr Double bottom - follow upHello all,
After what can only be described as a euphoric sigh of relief, Bitcoin bears were sent scrambling this past week as price rallied more than 20% off the bottom. While a little slow, our $459 buy signal turned out to be quite accurate as we have moved steadily higher since that breakout event. The initial price objective of around $500 was hit and I did take the liberty of letting some of my position go. I continue to respect the notion of slowly spoon feeding the market coins as price moves higher. I have indeed sold (and booked profits) on the rally. On top of seeing your balance sheet grow, I think mentally its a good idea to reward yourself a little with these positive affirmations. I still have 1/3 of my long position and feel as though I want to keep a good chunk of that going forward. Indeed, I would go so far as to say I will try and rebuild my long position (to get longer...if that is a word....lol) on any pullbacks of substance. So the question then becomes, is it time to start looking for that correction/pullback and roughly where would historically 'normal' corrections suggest might be good reloading zones???
Is the rally over?
Price itself seems to be stalling near the previous significant peak ($547) and may hint at some serious resistance ('battle line' refereed to on chart above). The rather noticeable bear divergences within both volume and momentum suggests two things to me. 1. the divergent move itself was likely to fail unless some serious new volume/momentum came in (which it did not) & 2. The market is in need of time to 'clean up' the divergent condition. This also suggests we are in need of at least a consolidation before another leg higher in price can begin in earnest.
If I was to buy, where would I be looking?
Two areas on the 4hr price chart jump out at me as areas I shall be looking for price, volume and momentum to turn. 1. my time tested '1st stop' target or the 38.2 Fib (496.88) is well within expectations here. A consolidation off this level and then a subsequent turn higher would be rather bullish and would suggest prices could easily hit indicated longer-term upside targets. Considering too the psychological significance of $500 (bfrn) a revisit of this important level certainly isn't out of the question. & 2. The Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) long zone off the 4hr double bottom suggests institutions may get interested in buying should we trade into that area (467.30 to 446.23). Considering the fact that the 4hr 200 sma and a significant uptrend line both happen to be in that window further suggests to me this area is of high interest going forward.
Cautionary note.
I am not a big fan of working open orders blindly. If I were to consider buying I will need to see confirmation from both volume and momentum. Please don't assume that because a level is hit the asset is a 'buy'....Unfortunately, if it were that easy we would all be millionaires, eh !?!?......lol
Summary
After what was a very nice week, I recon BTC needs a little time to 'clean up'. I have sold some of my $459 purchase but will keep a chunk of it on the books as the daily charts suggest purchases in the $400 area are not a bad 'investments'. I am watching for price to come back into two potential trade location windows and will re-enter longs on appropriate indications from my indicators near those levels.
Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit...
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4hr BTC Nice bounce off the bottomI haven't posted much on Bitcoin as much of late as I have been put to sleep waiting for my OTE long zone bids to be filled. It has been an arduous wait but as price has moved slowly lower, the wisdom of patients has been so far accurate. Having said that, Bitcoin has enjoyed a rather nice bounce off the 419.40 level for going on the past 100 hours. So much so we are fast approaching a few significant resistance levels off the higher time frames and some aggressive short term bullish price targets. The bulls are expecting the current ab=cd harmonic pattern to play out (point D currently is 467.55) . That level is interesting because it does line up with a 38.2 Fib from the top so it seems very realistic. On the way to that level the market will have to overcome the 4hr - 200 sma (458) and a previous peak (463.53) so I certainly could see some volatility from current levels. BoT longs are working from the 445 area (25% of anticipated price objective) and stops are now at break even (BoT's trading rules since 50% of anticipated target move has occurred) but sadly I am still working my 'stink bids' down below. Considering momentum's 'toppy' look to it, I would be more then happy to exit (that long signal from 445) at break even should the market fail from current levels. My hunch is we will run into resistance and we will roll over and test these recent lows. From exactly where is of course tough to say but my hunch again is that the 38.2 level (off the top) is just too much of a magnet not to get hit. once we roll over,. do we break those lows is another question all together. Do I get my fills below $400, even more questionable considering where we are on the Weeklies.....shucks..... Since this is a V'' bottom, I am going to let them work and see if we can't get a real push into the OTE long zone to finish off this 4hr correction.
Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit...
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Long term US Treasuries - A buy, for now...As we fast approach the typical seasonal top for the North American economy it shouldn't surprise us to see the anti-equity-market proxy (bonds) start to look more attractive. While I am not suggesting a trade (low reward to risk ratio on setup prevents me from considering the idea) , I do respect the fact that we may see a nice rally from current levels. Three justifiable reasons suggest to me price wants to revisit the low 140 area in the not too distant future. 1. Inverted Head and shoulders price pattern target (outlined on chart). 2. Optimal Short Trade Entry (OTE) zone currently about 144 to 148 . 3. Gaps near 143 & 145 need to be filled. Put it all together and I can comfortably understand a bond market rally - but as previously mentioned, because reward is about equal to risk I simply can not justify taking a trade....
Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit...
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1hr BTC Finex - the long slow grind back to the OTE long zoneAfter taking a pause from posting trading ideas on BTC (because I am either in BTC or cash and have been sitting in cash for a while now) I thought I would take some time today to review the 1 hour BTC chart and where it might be suggesting price wants to go over the near term. First off, you will notice several 'M' tops on the chart today. That alone suggests to me the bears are in control not the bulls. Couple that with the fact that the latest rally could not even get back up into the OTE short zone (rally peak was 518 and 61.8 or bottom of zone was 519) and I see more evidence that the bears are in control. Willy did get a little 'stupid overbought' there on that rally so it isn't too surprising to see Willy work his back back down into the oversold zone once again. While that may be reason for the bulls to start paying attention, we have neither a bottom in the raw momentum (MACD Histogram), a bottom in volume (OBV) or a bottom in price, Put it all together and I am still looking for lower prices ahead not higher. It do see the OTE long zone (off this entire rally from Mid April) currently sits between 431 and 456 and that shall be my target zone over the coming sessions. Should the indicators support long ideas once we get down into that range I may consider getting back in on the long side of BTC - until then....cash is king.
1hr BTCE - Well defined 38.2 Fib fail off full moon madnessThe parabolic price spike into the full moon caught me (and I would assume many others) completely off guard. The fact that there was little to no follow through supports the notion of an anomaly and the market is going through the natural process of correcting for that event. Indeed, the 1 hour chart continues to work its way lower after a well defined top/fail at the 38.2% fib (CRI's '1st stop' target). That area (near 472) appears to be a significant 'battle zone' and I wouldn't be surprised to see it tested again. Should it be recaptured, a rally back up into the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) short zone is realistic. However, bearish harmonic patterns on the initial move through that level suggest either a test of the top of the OTE long zone (61.8%) and/or a tag of the sweet spot (ss) at 70.5% itself. Additionally, there is both the top of the old trend channel and a small uptrend line near the bottom of the OTE long zone (78.6%) so price action into this wide area shouldn't be too unexpected. I currently have orders working at those levels and now must sit patiently and wait for my fills.
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