A disappointing #Altcoin season? Maybe! OTHERS.d/BTC.dMaking gains in #Crypto has gotten harder and harder with each passing cycle for the vast majority of participants.
That is an unquestionable truth that I see and hear from people.
#Bitcoin itself is in it's 4th Hype cycle... which is bearish
2013 Mt Gox ponzi cycle top/collapse
2017 Eth/ICO craze, CME futures. CNBC XRP shill top.
2021 Uniswap/DEFI innovation , Elon doge /Coinbase IPO top.
2024/5 Memecoins craze --- topping signals are already appearing Andrew Tate / Iggy Azalea at NYSE. A Trump Election Win could be the final nail in the coffin whilst ppl celebrate the news and January 2025 Inauguration may seal crypto's fate.
The left translated 4 year cycle is a definite possibility as made popular by #BobLoukas
We know that retail investors are rejecting High valued VC backed projects and rather take high risk gambles on #Memecoins for a chance to be early... this is not bullish behaviour obviously!
As only a tiny percentage of people can win at that game and often it is not YOU!
Once that speculative capital & energy is rinsed many people will be left holding a worthless bag of tokens.
#Leverage trading destroys many people's lives
And a digital store of value whilst has obviously it's merits is unlikely to flip #Gold in marketcap imho
It cannot compete with a 5000 year history of storing wealth for generation to generation.
I can bury Gold coins in my garden and dig them up in 50 years knowing full well that they will have value.
Would you do that with a trezor? Lol.
So what do we do ... try to take advantage of the next 6 months and rotate S coin profits into
#Stablecoins and maybe a small allocation to #PAXG #XAUT (buyer beware on those gold backed #RWA coins obviously)
This should buy you enough time, to let you assess the fallout of any top that may occur this Christmas/new year.
Remember many people and especially the Bitcoin community will be partying and celebrating the 15 year journey of a $100k plus BTC.
You must avoid being sucked into that hype and cash in a good chunk of your crypto portfolio IMO
This is just a scenario I give to you ... and not a prediction ofc.
We are trying to predict the future irrational behaviour of humans, an almost impossible task. But as the wall St cheat sheet demonstrates speculative bubbles, generally do repeat often enough for us to try and capture profits from them.
So we watch and wait, place our bets and see where the chips may fall, one foot in and one foot out is my general kind of viewpoint of how most people should be thinking at this stage of the cycle.
OTHERS-D
Post Bitcoin Halving, is it time for ALTS now ?
This is something I am seeing so many people asking and the only Answer is, "It is impossible to say jsut yet.
Historically, if we look at the BTC.Dominacne Chart below, we can see that, on average, iit is around 200 days after Halving that we see ALTS seasons.
This does not follow that Bitcoin outperform all ALTS however and it is worth noting that Just because BTC.D Drops, BTC PA does not always follow, in fact, in times of strength, is creates Divergences.
But something to take note of right now is simply that on a Daily chart, the TOTAL Crypto market Cap has retraced to sit on the 236 Fib retracenebt line. ( below ) and is currently bouncing off it.
On the other hand, the OTHERS total crypto Market Cap chart ( Minus TOP 10 Crypto ) shows us that it has retraced to BELOW the 236 Fib Line. (below)
This maybe a tough line for OTHERS to cross, even more so if the Supply of BTC is getting Tight, no one is selling and so liquidity is not spreading across from BTC to ALTS and we also find new
Liquidity entering the market getting scarce as the USA monetary policy keep interest rates high for the foreseeable Future. .
So where does this leave us ? With All the TOTAL charts Ranging ? This is a possibility but I can see the Bitcoin "formula" working as it always has....We may see another 200 day Range, With BTC being Top, maybe even pushing to a new ATH. 100K USDT is certainly a possibility as Corporate money flows in,
We have seen profit taking, the sell off of Greyscale BTC that has been soaked up and yet PA continues to range.
Bitcoin is Still in control.
We need to pay attention to the OTERS to see how that copes with the 236 Fib line but , for me, and this is just my opinion, we are now wgere near ALT season yet.
Time will tell
POO Coins are up 1.5X vs #BTC since June. HOW HIGH CAN THEY GO?This chart is of the market cap of #Altcoins divided by the marketcap of #Bitcoin.
If this ratio is going UP
Sh@tcoins (to give them their colloqiual name)
are out performing the #1 #Crypto asset.
("there is NO 2nd best.. " M. Saylor)
Risk ON.
Aka Silly season.
If this ratio is going down.
Then S coins are underperforming BTC
Bear market... S coins getting wiped out.
.... Got it?
Good.
Throwing on a Fib extension
(please draw your own chart... I am not a Fibonnaci expert by any means)
We can speculate how high,
and how much they will outperform.
and the magnitude of gains left on the table
Take Your pick of the extension level.
Or retracement Level if you are a Bitcoin Maxi, and don't believe a new ATH will be made in this ratio...
Good Luck in your speculations.
#ALTCOINS are still BULLISHLY positionedWe cleared the 200d MA
CHECKBACKED
and had a slight correction
looking for another higher low
as we SMASH the key yellow line for GOOD
to confirm #Crypto spring for the many non-believers in this rally!!
:)
#SHIB
#LINK
#LTC
#CULT
#HEX
#PP
#DBI
#NEAR
#FTM
#AVAX
Others 1W (Crypto Total Market Cap) until end of 2023Sideways until the end of November between 101B and 124B. In December Others Market Cap may jump up to 137B - (false)breakout? Followed by (probably unsuccessful) retest in the second half of December (end of January 2024) falling down to 124B or even lower to 106B.
To be updated in January 2024...
OTHERS Marketcap 1w to BULLRUN !!Others Marketcap (Altcoins) 1w Longterm
Exclude top 10 altcoins marketcap. 2015-2023 chart
1-2-3 / sword and shield
In my opinion; btc dom. uptrend will end within maximum of 1-2 months, we already know others dom. is at the bottom.
When will the ALT-SEASON come?
So how do we understand this?
To understand this, we should chech these:
The most important charts are:
1-) Btc Dominance
2-)Eth/Usd
3-)Eth/btc
4-)Total, Total2, Total3 marketcap
5-)Others dominance
6-)Others marketcap
7-)dxy
8-)Usdt dominance
9-)Btc/usd
10-)XRP/BTC
I recommend you to check all my charts to fully understand.
Alt Season Incoming There is more than 3 parameters that we're getting into the Alt Season. But we only need 3
OTHERS.D as you see made a positive divergence exactly on 0.618 level of long-term fibo and, Touched the up trend-line for first time and showed pump reaction .The only thing we need is to break the down trend-line .
ETH.D had made a rising wedge and its going to dump or getting into trading range .
BTC.D raised for a couple weeks and its getting to the 0.5 level of retracement fibo and it has potential to make negative divergence .
Others.d - May regain traction in the mid term.Looks like we're nearing the projected target for wave 2 of a bullish wave dating back to feb 2017. Should this come into fruition, we can see a potential alt coin reversal on the cards and therefore should allocate capital into alt coins for mid-longterm gains. In the short term, on bitcoin we see a potential wave B rally and then a wave C correction as wave A has recently completed, bottoming at 25.9k It is possible that when wave C for bitcoin completes, that altcoins start to gain dominance and increase in pricing as a lot of people have been shaken out their holdings and only true believers remain, which is usually the best time to buy.
4-25-23 [russel2000]Good afternoon, Anon,
Seeking a comprehensive breakdown of the Russel2000?
Allow me to elucidate for you.
---
The Russell 2000 is presently entrenched in a quintessential Wyckoff accumulation phase:
Dubbed - The Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1.
---
Who is Wyckoff, and why is he of significance?
Well, Wyckoff reigns as the vanquisher of bears,
as well as the architect of unanticipated realities.
Wyckoff embodies an interdimensional algorithm,
crafted to cleave you asunder.
---
Green trajectory = Should the ensuing days yield favorable earnings, anticipate the Russell 2000 to be propelled into the celestial realms.
Strawberry trajectory = Russell breaches the low with ferocity, accompanied by a colossal volume spike, prior to being catapulted to all-time highs.
---
Ps. An upsurge in small-cap stocks signifies an environment inclined towards risk-taking.
Dominance of other currencies seems to be decreasingAccording to this analysis, the dominance of other digital currencies is decreasing. This means increasing the dominance of Bitcoin on the market.
If the future events are based on this scenario, it is expected that the dominance of others will decrease to about 9% and from there the alt party will start and the dominance of others will increase to the range of 12.21%.
The time of chart is weekly and as it has been specified, the 200 moving average chart has broken downwards.
If we refer to the history of the chart, we can see that in similar conditions up to 25% below the breaking point of the 200 moving average in the weekly time frame.
OTHERS Crypto Market CapOTHERS chart shows us the Total Crypto Market Cap MINUS the top 10 Crypto and here we can easily See that this is where the majority of the gains have been made , with 87 % gains compared to Bitcoins 53%. As a result, PA is climbing back over the EMA's, which when used correctly, can tell you some important things about Trends.
BUT things to watch ere are, Is PA going to make a higher High or not. and looking at the MACD and RSI and StochRSI, it is touch and go if it can make it higher before it turns over..
This may take anotehr week or so to show us bu tit is something to keep your eyes on
Obviously, a Lower high would show us the downtrend still exists
10 TradingView Crypto Indices You Should Know!📉📌 10 @TradingView Crypto Indices You Should Know!
Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. And I want to start by thanking @TradingView for putting these indices together - making our life easier.
A couple of days ago, TradingView posted a tweet (attached on the chart) highlighting these 10 Crypto Indices. So I thought it would be a good idea to go over it and post its analysis as per my trading style.
So grab a cup of coffee or tea, and let's enjoy it together 😁
📌 BTC.D - Market Cap BTC Dominance
🗒 BTC.D is rejecting a strong support zone in green. For the bulls to take over short-term, we need a break above the last minor high in orange.
And for the bulls to remain in control from a medium-term perspective, we need a break above the main high in gray.
If we break below 40% level, then we will be expecting BTC.D to dive inside the green zone.
📌 ETH.D - Market Cap ETH Dominance
🗒 ETH.D has been stuck inside a range. For the bears to take over, we need a break below the orange zone and lower red trendline. In this case, a movement till the 13% green zone would be expected.
In parallel, for the bulls to take over, we need a break above the upper gray high. In this case, further bullish movement till around the upper red trendline would be expected.
📌 USDT.D - Market Cap USDT Dominance
🗒 USDT.D rejected our blue support zone last week and traded higher. We are currently sitting around a supply zone. If we trade higher, then we will be approaching a strong resistance zone in green.
For the bears to take over, thus for the bull run to start for Crypto, we need a break below the blue support AND lower blue trendline.
📌 USDC.D - Market Cap USDC Dominance
🗒 USDC.D is overall bullish trading inside our two red trendlines. For the bulls to remain in control, we need a break above the last major high in green.
Meanwhile, USDC.D is sitting around the upper red trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance that might push price lower inside the range again.
For the bears to take over from a medium-term perspective, which would be healthy for the crypto market, we need a break below the lower red trendline. In this case, a movement till the 4% support zone would be expected.
📌 TOTAL - Total Crypto Market Capitalization
🗒 TOTAL has been overall bearish for a while, and lately we have been trading inside the red channel.
The next support that might hold TOTAL up is the 500B - 600B demand zone.
For the bulls to take over from a long-term perspective, we need a break above the 1 Trillion round number in blue.
Meanwhile, every bullish movement would be a short-term correction.
🗒 TOTAL2, TOTAL3, OTHERS and TOTALDEFI charts are very similar to TOTAL
📌 TOTAL2 - Total Market Capitalization (Excluding BTC)
📌 TOTAL3 - Crypto Total Market Cap (Excluding BTC and ETH)
📌 OTHERS - Crypto Total Market Cap Others
📌 TOTALDEFI - Total DeFi Market Capitalization
📌 DEFIETH - DeFi/Ethereum ratio
🗒 DEFIETH is stuck inside a range.
For the bulls to take over, we need a break above the upper gray zone AND upper red trendline.
For the bears to take over, we need a break below the lower gray zone. In this case a movement till around the 15% demand zone would be expected.
Hope you find this article useful. Feel free to share your thoughts or request any chart analysis.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
A possibility about the final bear movement...Others.DOthers dominance graph has been working very well since 2019.
Red declining line has been confirmed 2 times (2021 summer+mid2022).
But this time, after the ftx issue, it seems to be broken down.
After a possible confirmation, it's likely to go down to the possible return point of 7.66%.
Additionally, it seems that we have a HS pattern formed (but not confirmed clearly yet) which has a final target of ~6.5%
If the confirmation formed, my game plan will be kind of like this.
ps: Just a humble idea of a possible movement.
Healthy checkback in #CRYPTO markets (So FAR) #SHITPERPCheck back of down channel break
Where do we go?
The August high was a major resistance test and understandable point of inflection.
going forward overcoming this level , in my mind would signal Crypto Spring.
i.e Winter over!
But Spring is not summer... pullbacks and tests of key levels will still occur.
Crypto TOTAL OutlookThere are promising sings of a recovery in Crypto markets. The black line coming from 3T is our main resistance. There are 2 scenarios: #n1 Blue line means BTC = $48K --- #n2 Purple line means BTC $27K. We currently have a good MACD and RSI. The pink line resistance of RSI comes from early 2021. If we succeed in breaking that, scenario #n1 will happen, otherwise scenario #n2.