Simple Conditions for Alts to Continue Moving vs BTCVery simple chart and conditions for altcoins to gain or lose dominance vs Bitcoin in the present market:
Others dominance needs to hold above ~9.15% and break and then hold above ~10.5%. Do that and it'll keep gaining dominance towards ~12-13%
Lose 9.15% and fail to reclaim it a 3rd time and alts will continue losing market dominance vs Bitcoin, heading down towards ~7.5-8%
I like to think there is a good chance we at least test the area above 10.5% seeing as we failed to remain below 9.15 after two attempts, the 2nd with a higher low. Failed breakdowns often tend to lead towards breakouts or at least breakout attempts (and vice versa)
That said, we may still yet test 9.15 or below one more time and... if we do, we'd want to see another higher or at least a same low and then a recovery of 9.15 if lost for it to head back up towards 10.5.
Some very roughly drawn possible paths are shown on the chart.
Best of luck!
Othersdominance
Don't F@ck up the Banana zone!This is the Others marketcap vs the Bitcoin Market cap chart.
With their respective Banana zones for the past couple cycle and the current one we have already started.
The KEY takeaway is you should be feeling the FOMO and kind already have been deployed into your favourite #Alts
This #altseason may yield one of the worst performances in a cycle --- which I have warned a few times now. And finish sooner than you think.
If you had waited for confirmation of a altcoin breakout and rotated/bough at the sad face this how your returns would have been crippled.
21 X ----> 5.8X 2017
6.4X ----> 3X 2021
3/4X -----> 1.75X/2.3X 2025
Drastically different.
I hope you have found this chart informative. Smash the likes.
Altcoins - Basing in October: Will November Bring the Big Move?It seems we’re still in a basing or rotating cycle. We’re close to a trendy move, regardless of whether it’s bullish or not, as we near the end of this consolidation phase.
October has turned out to be #Flatober instead of #Uptober. That’s alright; the tighter the consolidation, the greater the chance November will make a definitive move in any direction.
I still lean bullish, but this week’s daily price action is a bit worrisome. Crypto appears to be used as a hedge, while equities remain the predominant risk-on asset going into CPI, making new highs as crypto retraces back to last week’s initial levels.
Basing for #October > Moving on to #November.
OTHERS Dominance - Altcoin DominanceThe chart is OTHERS.D. Essentially altcoin dominance in the market and an indicator of altcoin strength in the market.
Price is respecting a HTF uptrend since 2020, tapping into the HTF trend line which kicked off the prior altcoin seasons in the last cycles on each tap. Price is also coming into the HTF monthly demand range with high volume as price mitigates this area. We are also following the HTF bullish orderflow thats been established since 2020. Over the last few months price has capitulated into HTF demand, fulfilling all my targets and we are forming a range in key levels, whilst establishing some bullish orderflow on the daily timeframe from these lows and key levels.
I think based on the range profile on the daily, we are accumulating here in a local accumulation range, supported by high volume nodes on each wick into these levels, with a sweep of the range lows and now establishing bullish orderflow in the daily range from our HTF bullish levels where ive anticipated the HTF bullish reversal to form as covered in my prior forecasts and breakdowns.
I believe this is the start of a reversal setting up on OTHERS.D, from these HTF bullish levels and we should start to see the altcoin market pick up as this drives higher..
My first draws on LQ are at the 10.13% and 10.5% levels of this daily range.
Once price closes above the prior weekly swing high at the 10.5% level, this will confirm a new weekly HH and a shift in trend from the weekly timeframe, which should then follow into the monthly putting in a new HH in line with the HTF trend.
3M:
2M:
1M:
2W:
1W:
1M/1W/1D:
3D:
1D:
Be careful.Deep falls possible before expected bull run.
Don't make decisions with too much excitement.
Don't get carried away by social media.
* What i share here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any digital asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose all your money.
Is ALTseason Finally Back?ALTseason actually started already back in 2023, when we got a nice five-wave bullish impulse in the ALTcoin dominance chart with ticker OTHERS.D. It was first leg A of a three-wave A-B-C rally.
We have seen a slow down in the last couple of months along with the whole Crypto market and that's why most of the ALTcoins came lower than Bitcoin, but we can see a corrective (A)-(B)-(C) decline within wave B with the wedge pattern within wave (C) of B that can be coming to an end.
So if we are on the right path, then seems like new ALTseason may not be far away, especially if we consider that Bitcoin and the whole Crypto market are still bullish. However, to even think about the next ALTseason, we have to see ALTcoin dominance back above 10.55%, which is first bullish evidence for a higher degree wave C.
Why we maybe about to see ALTS revived....A Surprising structure
This is the OTHERS.DOMINANCE chart on \ MONTHLY scale.
Altcoins Dominance — Index Chart - TradingView
Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 Dominance, %. OTHERS.D Crypto Market Capitalization. OTHERS.D
I have marked the Bitcoin Halvings and ATH also as a marker and we have a number of very interesting things to note.
Lets start at the beginning.
ALTS first came into being in 2011 with Namrecoin and Litecoin. This is how we manage to have the OTHERS.D before Ethereum was created in 2015. Many think ETH was first, it was not.
We shold pay attention to the Gashed horizontal line going across the chart. PA rose above this in early 2017 and has remained above it ever since. In fact, this line has acted as support 3 times previously and is currently acting as support to the PA Right now.
This cold lead to the ALT recovery we need right now.
BUT, also take note of the day Spans of A - B and Aa - Bb
Span A is from the BTC ATH to the next Low on the OTHERS.D PA, From that Low, see how it rose Through the BTC HALVING ( dotted yellow line) - This is span B.
See how it Dropped down to the line of support and then Rose and created an ALT Season
Now Look at Span Aa from the Nov 2021 BTC ATH. We have a VERY similar day count to when OTHERS.D returned to the line of sippport, where it once again, bounced up and begins the Span of Bb.
But this time, when BTC Halving came in, OTHERS.D PA has Dropped sharply, earlier than last time. This is very likely to be because of BTC.D and the Long Term Holding, Buying of Bitcoin for ETF's and the Sentiment.
So the real question now, is will OTHERS.D PA Bounce as previously or will support fail
And for that, we have to wait and see.
It is worth noting that ALTS is a massive market and while the Dominance maybe falling, we can still see some ALTS like Solana Race to the top with 1000% Gains.
This chart is a Long Term Gauge of where the marklet goes and it should also be nothed that Bitcoin has reached ATH while this PA also rises.
A disappointing #Altcoin season? Maybe! OTHERS.d/BTC.dMaking gains in #Crypto has gotten harder and harder with each passing cycle for the vast majority of participants.
That is an unquestionable truth that I see and hear from people.
#Bitcoin itself is in it's 4th Hype cycle... which is bearish
2013 Mt Gox ponzi cycle top/collapse
2017 Eth/ICO craze, CME futures. CNBC XRP shill top.
2021 Uniswap/DEFI innovation , Elon doge /Coinbase IPO top.
2024/5 Memecoins craze --- topping signals are already appearing Andrew Tate / Iggy Azalea at NYSE. A Trump Election Win could be the final nail in the coffin whilst ppl celebrate the news and January 2025 Inauguration may seal crypto's fate.
The left translated 4 year cycle is a definite possibility as made popular by #BobLoukas
We know that retail investors are rejecting High valued VC backed projects and rather take high risk gambles on #Memecoins for a chance to be early... this is not bullish behaviour obviously!
As only a tiny percentage of people can win at that game and often it is not YOU!
Once that speculative capital & energy is rinsed many people will be left holding a worthless bag of tokens.
#Leverage trading destroys many people's lives
And a digital store of value whilst has obviously it's merits is unlikely to flip #Gold in marketcap imho
It cannot compete with a 5000 year history of storing wealth for generation to generation.
I can bury Gold coins in my garden and dig them up in 50 years knowing full well that they will have value.
Would you do that with a trezor? Lol.
So what do we do ... try to take advantage of the next 6 months and rotate S coin profits into
#Stablecoins and maybe a small allocation to #PAXG #XAUT (buyer beware on those gold backed #RWA coins obviously)
This should buy you enough time, to let you assess the fallout of any top that may occur this Christmas/new year.
Remember many people and especially the Bitcoin community will be partying and celebrating the 15 year journey of a $100k plus BTC.
You must avoid being sucked into that hype and cash in a good chunk of your crypto portfolio IMO
This is just a scenario I give to you ... and not a prediction ofc.
We are trying to predict the future irrational behaviour of humans, an almost impossible task. But as the wall St cheat sheet demonstrates speculative bubbles, generally do repeat often enough for us to try and capture profits from them.
So we watch and wait, place our bets and see where the chips may fall, one foot in and one foot out is my general kind of viewpoint of how most people should be thinking at this stage of the cycle.
Altseason - are you seeing this?Others dominance may be wrapping up a right shoulder on he weekly. The right shoulder may take longer than the indicator has drawn, however so I've drawn my own next to it in white.
As confluence for this, the larger pattern began taking shape after a smaller one formed within its head.
The smaller inverted HS is already confirmed and is presently re-testing its neckline, pullbacks below failing so far. Its targets are 16% and then just slightly over 19% and just below ATH, should it hold after another test or pullback.
Targets for both:
The smaller HSi would confirm the larger one by reaching its TP 1 at 16%, and then holding above ~13.5% or so.
TP 1 as measured for the larger HSi on the non-log chart is 19.7%, or slightly above ATH.
Its logarithmic measured TP 1 is above ATH around 24.15%
Conclusion:
Altcoins may regain its prior ATH in market dominance, somewhere around 19.5%, and could approach 24-25%
POO Coins are up 1.5X vs #BTC since June. HOW HIGH CAN THEY GO?This chart is of the market cap of #Altcoins divided by the marketcap of #Bitcoin.
If this ratio is going UP
Sh@tcoins (to give them their colloqiual name)
are out performing the #1 #Crypto asset.
("there is NO 2nd best.. " M. Saylor)
Risk ON.
Aka Silly season.
If this ratio is going down.
Then S coins are underperforming BTC
Bear market... S coins getting wiped out.
.... Got it?
Good.
Throwing on a Fib extension
(please draw your own chart... I am not a Fibonnaci expert by any means)
We can speculate how high,
and how much they will outperform.
and the magnitude of gains left on the table
Take Your pick of the extension level.
Or retracement Level if you are a Bitcoin Maxi, and don't believe a new ATH will be made in this ratio...
Good Luck in your speculations.
Others.D v USDT.d --- Shitcoinz v Stablecoin ratio inv H&SPretty simple ratio to keep an eye.
Others is the crypto index minus the top 10
So our blessed Shitcoins
Pulled up this ratio today and what do you know
we have a inverse Head & shoulders that will help us for profit taking levels.
Best of Luck
ALTs to run hard into April / May is what I have been calling for.
So maybe we get to the linear target
.... Pause....
And then finish the job end of the year.
best of luck.
Repeating Patterns May Lead to a New ATH for Alt DominanceAlt dominance formed something that looks a lot like an HSi with a very small right shoulder, which broke above its neckline and successfully re-tested, confirming the pattern and targeting 16.6%.
See the white drawn pattern and its white dashed neckline on the chart.
The same area of breakout and re-test from the smaller white pattern is forming another similar small right shoulder on a larger HSi as drawn in blue, with its neckline as the blue dashed line.
Should the blue pattern be a repeat of the smaller white one, and breakout of its neckline as well (note that it should as long as the white pattern continues up towards its initial target), it will target 21.8% upon confirmation and any successful re-tests of its neckline.
More related ideas for BTC.D and OTHERS.D in the Related Ideas section below.
This would suggest the possibility for a new ATH for alt dominance. For confluence, note that the halfway point towards 21.8% nearly equals the initial target of the smaller white pattern at 16.6%. And, rising green volume into the move.
Others Dominance v Bitcoin dominance --- may not give a new ATH ... for the cycle
Bitcoin could be so strong
That even though the others index ( aka shitcoins ) still do well from here.
Maybe they don't make a new high for this ratio.
As this chart shows -- last cycle
all the coins outside the top 10
peaked at 1 : 2 bitcoin.d
essentially the others.d was around 20% of the entire total market
bitcoin was around 40%
Eth was around 22%
(stables and the remainder of the top 10. made up the rest)
These targets are definitely worth keeping an eye on!
We've Done This BeforeAlt dominance may be repeating its prior pattern, where it wicked up to it's ATH after a series of drops, and then dropped hard before making a new ATH.
I still question whether it will actually make a new ATH this time, but imagine it will at least revisit the area of previous ATH.
Related idea linked below - a falling wedge breakout that is targeting previous ATH
Alt Dominance about to BreakoutThere's a falling wedge with a failed breakdown on the 3 day chart. That failed breakdown highly increases the likelihood of a successful breakout. RSI has been diverging from price, and that divergence recently strengthened.
Bitcoin dominance recently bounced from the top of an expanding wedge and looks like it wants to head down, finally making its new ATL:
Could this be the time for alts to make strong gains against Bitcoin before the next halving run begins?
The same view as beforeDominance currencies will face a sharp and rapid decline in the coming period, and it will be the last to build a bottom on which to base the rise that follows for a long period.
Clarification: Currency Dominance is an indicator that shows the percentage of currencies’ acquisition of liquidity in the crypto market and indicates the rise or fall of currencies as a general indicator.
Please clarify that I am helping you with my point of view, which may be right or wrong, and see my previous analyzes of many currencies and forex in order to judge the owner of this analysis with a more accurate look
Good luck