Forecast for the Crypto MarketI wanted to give a quick update on the Long-term TPI for BTC, and how I see the altcoin market doing compared to BTC:
The TPI has had a relatively high value for a long time
I can't foresee the future, but I don't believe that external market factors will allow this to keep going, I do believe we will see a big scare before the next halving of BTC
BTC's strength compared to ETH
As of right now, ETH is bleeding on it's BTC pair. We have been relatively stable since October last year, but BTC has been the safer asset in terms of returns (both downwards and upwards).
How is the altcoin market doing?
I've mentioned in a previous video idea that I believe that alts won't be outperfoming BTC in the near future. The dominance of alts are still on the decline, and the TPI value (-0.71) is indicating that dominance of altcoins will go lower than now!
I've linked my previous ideas on these subjects, as always... Stay safe
Othersdominance
Important change in the Crypto Market: Don't buy alts yet!Quick note:
I am slightly bullish, but I need to see more strength in the TPI. As of right now it's only 0.25 on BTC, where 0.2 is the threshold to go bullish.
I wouldn't swing long on a lot of trades with a lot of risk as of yet.
It is very likely we do go a bit higher, if we see shorts get liquidated:
Others Dominance up to 32% or down to 5%Others Dom has a confirmed Head/Shoulders with a bearish target of ~5%. However, it could make another attempt to get back above its neckline if we see a double bottom here. That double-bottom would get us back above the right shoulder, causing a failed HS targeting 32%.
Either way, change is coming.
A possibility about the final bear movement...Others.DOthers dominance graph has been working very well since 2019.
Red declining line has been confirmed 2 times (2021 summer+mid2022).
But this time, after the ftx issue, it seems to be broken down.
After a possible confirmation, it's likely to go down to the possible return point of 7.66%.
Additionally, it seems that we have a HS pattern formed (but not confirmed clearly yet) which has a final target of ~6.5%
If the confirmation formed, my game plan will be kind of like this.
ps: Just a humble idea of a possible movement.
Others.D OutlookIt is a possible long-term scenario for Altcoins. As we know, Crypto is made to enhance decentralization. Concerning the fact that when Bitcoin retraces, almost 99% of Altcoins follow it does not confirm its goals. Many of the Cryptos had completely different plans when Bitcoin started its winter. Unfortunately, some of them went bankrupt, some struggling, some unclear and some resilient still.
🔻BTC.D DOWN,🔻USDT.D DOWN & 💹OTHERS.D UP ,What will happen❓❕HEY traders, what's going on today ❓❕‼️😉
since previous analysis that I posted for OTHERS dominance ,some interesting events have happened in the crypto market .
🔻📉BTC.D has declined ~ -10% ( from 49%-43%)
🔻📉USDT.D has declined ~ -30% ( from 9.5%-6.5%)
💹📈OTHERS.D has raised ~ +20% ( from 11%-13.5% )
while the dominance of both BTC and tether decreased But others.d increased and at same time we saw that bitcoin and altcoins prices has raised recently , so What it means ?!
in my opinion it means that in the recent weeks while majority of trader expected a green market and increase for bitcoin and altcoins but they mostly put their liquidity to the altcoins market because might expected more growth for altcoins rather than btc when btc.d is down .
If you don't know what's OTHERS.D , Before going any further more you should know the OTHERS.D represent the percentage of total market capitalization of the top-125 cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and some other top cryptocurrencies. You can see the list of excluded coins on the Total Market Capitalization Dominance chart on the cryptocurrency market page . The excluded coins are displayed along with the OTHERS market chart.
Although the relation between the BTC.D , bitcoin price , altcoin dominace and their prices is a little bit confusing for most of us , but these key point can help us to predict the market !
EXPs :
if BTC price increase and BTC .D increase too ====> Altcoins price decreases.
if BTC price decrease and BTC .D increase ====> Altcoins price Dump and decrease heavy. This is dump phase.
if BTC price go sideway(without up or down) and BTC .D increase ====>Altcoins price don't change and this is accumulation phase.
if BTC price increase and BTC .D decreases (or sideway ) ====> Altcoins price jump or may have a altseason.
if BTC price decrease and BTC .D decreases too ====> Altcoins prices go sideways.
if BTC price go sideway and BTC .D decreases ====> Altcoins prices increase
so now what I expect for crypto market and altcoins?!
As always because of more dominance of Bitcoin ,we start with btc and btc.d ( I also assume that USD.T continues its down trend ),
📈_ thus if btc.d maintains the current support zone and be able to increase by breaking of the descending trendline and then can reach the higher VG zone :
if at same time bitcoin price rises >> so in this case others.d loses the current pivot zone and altcoins price will decrease
if at same time bitcoin price decreases >> so in this case others.d loses the current pivot zone fall to lower support zone and altcoins price will dump
if at same time bitcoin price goes in a sideways >> so in this case others.d maintain the current level and altcoins price will continue an accumulation phase
📉_ But if BTC.D the loses current support and goes down to lower support or may ( continues sideway) :
if at the same time bitcoin price goes more up >> so in this case altcoin dominance can reach the higher resistance zone an forms a H&D pattern and altcoins price will jump
if at the same time bitcoin price goes down >> so in this case others.d then altcoins price will go in a sideway
if at the same time bitcoin price goes sideways >> so in this case then altcoins price will go up
but anyway take it mind according to the USDT.D chart and previous analysis for , the tether dominance may increases in the short-term and the the same time btc.d and others' lose more their current dominances again , so in this case we may have a temporary down before any rising (in the mid-term )!
✌️ Good luck with your trading and investing and remember: Trade smart…OR JUST DON’T TRADE!
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👉This analysis is my personal opinion ,not a financial advice ,so do your own research.
💚if you're fan of my analyses please follow me , give a big thumbs 👍 OR drop a comment 🗯
Altcoin Season has startedThis is Others.D which illistrates Altcoins without Ethereum dominance in the market. This is the weekly candle chart.
Let's start from bottom of the chart.
1. The Stochastic RSI has been out of oversold since the 20th June 2022, it looks like it is curling back down which would gain BTC back some dominance.
2. PCT Rank Top Bottom is light coloured green stating that we are bottoming out and momentum turning back up.
3. The Money Flow Index has dropped below 20 tells me that the money coming in should start increasing.
4. I have put in the historical Linear Regression lines (in Green) 6-13th June 2022 price had bounced off the lower line.
All of this above looks to me a great time to start buying Alts. The Stochastic RSI is a concern, but overall we should be right to go.
BTC.D OutlookA few days ago, I made another analyse saying BTC.D will go down to 40%; but, that was in case if BTC had intended to go up from 30K. Today, BTC is falling and we can clearly see that BTC.D. can rise until 50% or more.
The green line is our long time resistance.
The blue line is our mid term trendline.
The pink line is our short term trendline.
Buy BTC or Altcoins when the market starts recovering?Observe the above 10D chart.
1) Four whole red candles printed outside the lower bollinger band. Never has that once happened in this chart. Remember, the majority of times candles print inside the bands and when they do outside, they sharply correct.
2) Counting wicks, the index has corrected almost 45% from its recent top and is currently testing a previous top (marked by the yellow line).
3) Most altcoins have depreciated 80-90% from their previous market tops.
4) The corresponding 10D BTC.D chart satisfies the exact opposite points (RSI is high, price above upper bollinger band). Also it prints a pattern close to a triple top)
On the 5D chart below, we can see that RSI hasn't been this low since 2016, when a 800% move followed.
In my humble and non-professional, non-investment-advice opinion, altcoins will bounce harder than BTC soon when the crypto markets starts rallying again.
BTC'D OutlookI still believe that BTC dominance will be strongly rejected from this 47% area as it did already a few times before, especially that Others.D paved its future floor at around 11.50% which is very critical for it and is the top of recent growths. BTC dominance target is the star at around 40%.
💣Altcoin Dominance ! When is time to rise?🚀Hey Sup GUY!
today I'm gonna analyze others dominance (OTHERS.D) , which also known as the Dominance index of altcoins . so lets get started!
My the past analysis was exactly before when some altcoins went parabolic and to moon . but since beginning of this year ( Jan 2022)
the market of altcoins turn red and bloody once again, so now the question is after losing more than 90% of worth of my altcoins when it can start to rise again ?!
My freinds call me Hey M.A I'm sick of seeing the Worthlessness and melting of my altcoins portfolio . I'm also too !
but to be honest it may not happen soon, Not least as long as bitcoin dominance is steadily increasing (probably up to 50-60%) , Because I'm my opinion the crypto market has entered an erosive process and its recovery will take some time, but it will rise again to hit new ATH definitely !
✌️ Good luck with your trading and investing and remember: Trade smart…OR JUST DON’T TRADE!
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👉This analysis is my personal opinion ,not a financial advice ,so do your own research.
💜 if you're a fan of my analyses Please follow me and give me a big thumbs 👍 OR drop comment 🗯💭
Crypto Overview - 6 in 1!Hello TradingView Family, this is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
Today, I am sharing my thoughts about the overall crypto market.
1) TOTAL - Crypto Total Market Cap
2) BTC - Bitcoin
3) ETH - Ethereum
4) USDT.D - Market Cap USDT Dominance
5) BTC.D - Market Cap BTC Dominance
6) OTHERS.D - Market Cap Altcoins / OTHERS Dominance
My Comments:
1) As you noticed, TOTAL, BTC, and ETH share almost the same chart/price action. We are overall bullish trading inside the brown channel, and now approaching the lower brown trendline acting as non-horizontal support.
We are currently stuck inside a range in the shape of a symmetrical triangle. For the bulls to take over, we need a break above the last major high (projection in green)
Meanwhile, the bears can still kick in, reject the upper trendline, to form another swing low before breaking the last high. (projection in red)
2) Regarding USDT.D it is usually negatively correlated with the overall crypto market.
For the bull run to start, we need USDT.D to break the symmetrical triangle and the 3.75% downward. (projection in purple)
Meanwhile, we can still see one more correction. (projection in blue)
3) Regarding BTC.D and OTHERS.D, these two are usually negatively correlated. For the Altcoin season to start, we need BTC.D to break below the gray area/support, and OTHERS.D to break above the last high in gray.
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If you reached so far, I want to thank you for your time and hope you find this post useful.
If you like this idea let me know in the comment section below to share Part 2 next week.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Altcoin Dominance at bottom of Daily ChannelIf we're going to see alts continue to gain in dominance, it needs to turn around here. That's not to say that it couldn't ride the bottom for longer before it turns up, but we shouldn't see it drop much lower.
Lose the channel and expect it to move down more before up.
Bitcoin dominance looks like it's very close to moving down, having created a wedge here (inverted chart below).
- That said, if BTC.D moves above ~46-47% and doesn't see a strong reaction turning back down, then we're likely to see more correction across the market or at least a sharp rise in Bitcoin that eats up alts.
- Or, instead we see others.d move up from channel bottom and btc.d move down to new lows, we may see an alts run prior to btc moving back towards ATHs or even a new ATH.
Divergence at the top of the channelHello everyone
Before we start a discussion, it is my pleasure to read your opinion on this post's comment section and support this idea with your likes if you enjoyed it !
Others dominance shows people inclination to buy large Cap coins like BTC or other smaller cap coins.
the price is moving in the parallel channel for 6 months. this is a valid and reliable channel.
the price reaches the upper line of the ascending channel and at this time, we see a Divergence between price and MACD . A downside trend of the price is more probable.
please note the image below. It is the 1H time frame and we see the price breaks down the trend line and this is our trigger to know the price is probably in the down trend.
Conclusion:
we expect that the ratio of bitcoin to other smaller cap coins is in the down trend. that means if you want to buy, it is better to buy bitcoin and if you want to sell (short), it is better to sell small cap coins.
Others dominance : bearish outlook Hello everyone
Before we start a discussion, it is my pleasure to read your opinion on this post's comment section and support this idea with your likes if you enjoyed it !
this is an update of my last analysis.
Others dominance shows people inclination to buy large Cap coins like BTC or other smaller cap coins.
the price reached the upper line of the ascending channel and reacted well to the upper line of the channel.
now we see a pullback and the bearish movement of the price can continue.
this means if you want to buy crypto, it is better to buy Bitcoin and if you want to sell crypto, it is better to sell small Cap coins.