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UKOIL: Brent Crude Time to close out longs and consider shortsBRENT CRUDE: UKOIL Trading Strategy Ahead of Opec Sweet Sweet Crude Have closed out the long position finally as Brent touched the upper parallel. It's the fourth strike and should come back from here. Closed at 64.33 for 1833 pips profit on a trade that carried 30 pips of risk from the outset, taking under 6 weeks to achieve. Best win of year (apart from Bitcoin, obviously) Wondering about shorting here, think it's the right thing to do with stop above 64.70 in case Opec deliver a surprise for once. It certainly was last time we tried it. If they do, Brent could rally just above the high today, take out stops nearby and then have a problem again...need to be careful, therefore. But usually it pays to sell before the news... . ..if stop gets struck it means a big surpise, and will look to get long once again on next pull-back, aiming for 67.20 minimum, it could potentially overshoot and spike to 69.73 at the max and then spill over - but that will have to be one hell of a surprise, and a hell of a shorting opportunity too, most likely, if we see it.
FX:UKOILShort
by sumastardon
Gold:XAUUSD Full of whipsaw until DXY straightens outGOLD: XAUUSD Update It's quite complicated and full of whipsaw - and there's likely to be more in store until DXY straightens itself out... Was waiting around a long time to get long at 1274 which looked like a good trade to begin with after an intraday low at 1273.25 as Wall Street joined the session...just hope you were smart enough and fast enough to exit, though (unlike me, busy with other incoming, der). Even worse, there was another buy trigger (which I hope you never traded because you got in at 1274 lows early in the NY session) on a rough 50 pip break above 1283, so at 1283.51 ish by the book - well if you traded long here I'm very sorry - my bad, in fact really bad...this is not a bad or unlucky trade, fooled by the chart - it's worse. It's just lazy, stupid writing...because there's clear resistance at 1283.5 already there on the chart so it should have been 'only go long on a 50 pip or more break above here, which would be 1284 +.' And so if I'd been a little more diligent it would and should have been technically perfect (high at 1283.98) - so this is my fault and not a fault or false reading from the chart. I feel a need to own up to that. My bad. Charts rock. Most of the time. It was a really dumb, lazy call that should have been written with more care. I feel deep guilt and responsibility if you got caught near the top because of that. If, like me you're still stuck in this trade from 1274, well at least we're still a couple of bucks to the good, not bad. Am raising stop to 1275.30 so this trade makes 1.7 points if it goes wrong or makes 7 points to 1281 upside target if right... But it's clear - that pinbar on the hourly chart looks serious - big reistance lies from 1281 through to 1284 (and not to 1283.5 as erroneously previously stated). So will close out long at just below 1281 if rally continues and not wait for better...just cannot trust rallies with DXY whipsawing right now the way it's doing - but believe that DXY is getting close to finishing its consolidation before the rally resumes, so it's difficult to trust any rally in gold for more than 5 minutes...therefore need to set limit just under 1281 for this long trade. If price is then met, no way can we consider going long again until 1284 is broken on updside by 50 pips+ (wait for next pull-back and with reasonably tight stop just below 1283 if trade triggers, for a maximum 1.7 point loss if wrong) and an upside target at 1290, a small 5.6 point win if right. A 3/1 risk/reward isn't great but just about acceptable. But gold looks more likely to fall away again from 1281-4 range if tested - hence looking to close out long just under 1281 and probably short from 1284 if touched with a stop just above 1285
FX:XAUUSDLong
by sumastardon
EURUSD: Closing out short here for small 22 pip profitEURUSD Update Friday Currently Short EUR on this pair from 1.1657 as per last comment but it's not going very well. Fed news was dovish enough to give the pairs some respite, for now at least. Today's low is above yesterday's and it's enough to give the pairs a lift back to 1.16652 again and destroy the 23 pips profit if not taken now. This gives us 23 pips (of stops) to play with for the next trade So am closing out the short at current values (1.1636) and going flat across all the pairs for now to take what few profits are still left on the shorts. Still believe USD has much further to rise but have to accept, looking at price action over last 24 hours, that it probably won't be this week now. Therefore prefer to flatten out across the all pairs and await next clear signal
by sumastardon
EURJPY Rising Wedge Break-out Performance I have been monitoring the formation of a rising wedge on the EURJPY pair. Formation performance has been estimated at around 260pips and I will be entering a short pending order as soon as I receive confirmation for the break-out. I can also see the confirmation of a double top formation (or a 2618 play) in the making should the price move further South which strengthen our confidence on the idea. It is a long move so I am not expecting to get there at one go. A retrace is also expected to test the broken support, so place your order according to your trading style since scalping opportunities may occur. let's wait it out. All feedback and comments are highly appreciated.
Short
by Telson
2
EURUSD Box Break-out Performmance, Long-Term Price SpeculationLooking over the Weekly chart for the EURUSD pair we can identify an attempted break-out of the rectangular formation, expecting a continuation of the downtrend dating back to May 2014. The above is also supported from a shooting star on May 2016 (to my eyes at least), clearly indicating a short move, and we have been looking at the price tag going South since then. Check out the performance possible long-term profits with a previous structure support coming on low 0.99000's levels. We would also expect a retracement move to retest the broken support but trust to become resistance in due time. All feedback is highly appreciated.
Short
by Telson
2
EURUSD Falling Wedge Formation Break-out Performance Based on our previous long-term analysis (please see links below), our general feeling regarding the EURUSD pair is going short. But, as we mentioned on the original idea, we would expect the price to retrace and retest the previous structure support that was broken a few days back on the 1.05700's region. We believe that this falling wedge formation may indicate the possible retrace for some extra pips. Please check previous structure for clues on supports and resistances and set TP and SL according to your trading style. The RSI indicator shows oversold conditions, still, personally I would look out for further confirmation prior to entering a long order. The above if a speculative theory that also suits our previous analysis... how convenient :) Let's see if this works out. All feedback and comments are highly appreciated.
Long
by Telson
2
GBPCAD Break-out Performance Speculation (Long-Term) - Part IIAs described in the original idea, we still believe on the long move of the price due to the formation of the falling wedge. The bottom support has moved short a few pips but the formation is still valid (to my eye). Please monitor to avoid a false break move, be wise to wait and confirm the move using other means, timeframe and/or indicators. The stop losses should be fair, under the previous structure support at the 1.63900 region while take profits are set according to expected performance and previous structure resistances. Adjust to fit your trading style. All feedback is appreciated.
Long
by Telson
EURJPY Break-out Performanced (Part II - Continuation)Breaking down the long-term short of EURJPY as described in the " EURJPY going short " idea (see below) as well as the initial break-out performance, we have come to witness a possible continuation in a similar fashion. Note that the long-term trendline forming the top wedge (based at 121.977) is still strong for a new-forming, even-bigger wedge, with the 120.806 price tag being the new base, which is the opening price on BRExit offering first "serious" structure support. The above is also supported by market conditions on Daily charts that show real lack of buying power (seriously overbought) by means of RSI/Stochastic. Conveniently enough :D the above speculation will conclude 1st performance target as described on the " EURJPY Break-out Performance " idea (see below) that was nearly missed at first go. There will be some resistance from EUR, we are in for a bumpy SHORT ride (scalping opportunities?) but, for the time being, I cannot foresee anything that may reverse back to LONG (trend not just a retrace). I would expect a solid retrace (min. 118.000) of that straight bull trend of the past few weeks, over the next few weeks before it shoots back to the stars. Lets wait it out... Since sometimes we all live in our small fantasy bubbles so, all feedback is appreciated.
Short
by Telson
1