XAUUSD: Short Term OutlookWith rising geopolitical tensions between "Trade Wars" and tension between Iran and US, this should be enough to support Gold Prices...
Seeming to be indecisive after reaching $1,3000 mark dropping to current $1286.825 - this could be in part of upbeat comments with US and China - and with Greenback holding a strong position it seems like Gold isn't ready for a rally.
I'm looking for a retrace to 1291.500 TP before watching for market confirmation or failure of break.
*Not Professional Advice - Would love to hear your view!
- Krecioch
Outlook
USDCAD LOOKS BULLISH - WAIT FOR A BULL BREAK
pair is currently trading inside 1.34 - 1.35 trading range.
rising trend line gives strong additional support.
most likely we will see bullish continuation and new higher high.
be patient and wait for a bullish breakout of a resistance of a trading range.
this breakout will trigger buying reaction of market participants.
Ready for long ride on nifty We are Buying Nifty on Dip around 10780--10800 .!!
and takee short around 10960--980 Stop must above 11025
once close above 11025 then just take fresh long for big big big target
target around 11200---11555---11777
and above 11777 we will take 12000--12300--12500 Level
This all Target will achive in next 3 month only...
and always stay long on nifty....every dip
right now hard code support is 10650 level..!! and for big player
nothing to worry about 100-200 point stop...we are here to take 2000 point on nifty...
keep watching ...keep following keep sharing
follow me make money
Nayan patel
BITCOIN: The BEST CHART AND ADVICE you have ever seen! ;-DHey cryptomaniacs and traders,
welcome to another analysis...no sorry.
I just wanted to wish you all a HAPPY EASTERN and want to remind you that coins and money is not the important thing in LIFE!
Do I got some adviced for you? Yeah!
I know we all might be chart-addicted and love to trade - We always check our portfolios and news. But all this can be stressfull, right?
Take the time to recover - Refresh your mindset and don`t forget to celebrate Eastern with your family - You never know how long they stay!
Health, freedome, time, family - All this is way more important than your financial freedome. So grant yourself a little break and focus on the real important things before we head into the next week.
You will feel refreshed and happy! And a good state of mind will cause better decisions - and better trades.
SO HAPPY EASTERN EVERYONE:-)
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Peace
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me! :-)
DAX: Weekly OUTLOOK! Rally SHOULD go on...?Hey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another weekly outlook for DAX!
Everything I wanna say is shown in the chart!
Have a nice start into the week!
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
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Any questions? PM me. :-)
BTCOIN and WHAT we NEED for a BULL-RUN!#OverviewHey cryptoheads,
welcome to antother analysis of Bitcoin.
In this chart we keep it very simple and look at the price-action, time-cycles and commin indicators.
All I want is to make sure that you guys don`t freak the hell out and buy the peaks.
Stay calm and rational in order to make good decisions.
In order to see a wealthy uptrend we need to see the folowing things:
1. S&R-Flips of Trendline and FAN.
2. A cross above the respected 50 M/A.
3. A strong bullish Time-Cycle
4. Higher Highs and Higher Lows
Everything else I wanna say is indicated in the chart.
Good Luck everyone. Let`s hope the King is Cryptomaniac has recovered. :-)
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
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DXY: Weekly OUTLOOK and LONG-TERM-FORECAST!#FundamentalsHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another OUTLOOK for DXY!
Fundamentals:
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1. FED began to increase the interest rate too early. Economy not as stable as expected!
The current interest rate is at the "neutral point" and does not support or damage the economy.
2. Cool down is noticeable but still "ignored " by the market! Important data such as PMI, CPI and so on are
showing worse and worse results. First real reaction was last friday after GERMANYS PMI with the worst result since 2012!
3. Market sees the tradewar as "guiltier". Still hoping a deal between USA and CHINA would safe the markets and push
the economy!
4. Yield-Curves about to invert! If low-term-credits are more expensive than long-term-credits banks won`t have
any reasons for lending! They would make no profit with this business anymore. This would cause less liquidity!
5. Bonds going up! Safe haven?
There are way more fundamentals but I think these points will be enough to show you the circumstances..
The previous FED`s statement was a FULL PACKAGE of doves.
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The FED`s statement was a big package of DOVISH messages saying that they won`t increase the interest rate
this year anymore amid signs of an economic slowdown, and said it would halt the steady decline of its balance sheet in September.
Call it the neutral rate.. or just a try to admit not too many failures. I bet POWELL would like to decrease the interest rate but can`t!
"What the Fed is doing is trying to engineer a soft landing.
What the market is hearing though is things have gotten so weak so quickly ... and the earnings outlook is so
dire that real money managers don't want to chase this rally."
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Technical Aspects:
1. Time-Cycles:
Looking at the different Sin-Waves you`ll notice that the previous cycle has been bullish but not able to
create a noticable impulse or a new high! This is a strong evidence for weakness attributable to the recent
change of the FED`s mind from hawkish to dovish!
2.Price-Action:
The market still rotates inside of the marked up trading-range between the significant support and resistance!
We are currently at the high important resistance-level (97,29) and are probably creating a double-top-patterm!
The BREAK through the current trendline and the subsequent PULLBACk is a typical behaivor and another evidence
for a sell-off! If we trigger the neck-line of the Double-TOP we could see another attempt to create a lower low!
3. Fibonacci Ratios:
The previous umpulse up to 104,- has ended @ the 161% extension, which is excactly at the 61,& retracement-level in the higher timeframe of the downtrend!
The taken profit has caused a sell-off down to the 50% retracement-level which is exactly at the Trendline of the current primary trend!
The current diagonal Support is q the 2/1 GANN-FANN!
Moving Average:
ALL MA/s including 200,100,50 has crossed and are currently retesting the 200 ma!
This is the "death-cross" and should be another evidence for a downtrend!
The 200 M/A is our current support!
Conclusion: If we trigger the DT-Pattern I expect the market to retest 90$!
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! .-)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
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NASDAQ INC: WEEKLY OUTLOOK!Hey tradomaniacs,
welcome to the weekly outlook!
I think the charts says enough!
Will the Double-Top get triggered?
The current situation says "NO" to Double-TOP but it looks like the current cycle is going to be bearish down to the previous "Supply-Zone."
The market just bounced off the 50 and 100 MA and seems to continue the rally downwards to complete WAVE 2.
After that we should see another attempt upwards cklose the the marked up target-zone of TEAM BEAR!
Great chance should come very soon!
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
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Any questions? PM me. :-)
SPX500: Weekly OVERVIEW! Awesome chance to sell?#CyclesHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another weekly outlook of SPX500!
This is an addition to my previous outlook:
The chart is speaking for itself...
Enjoy and have a nice start into the week!
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
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Any questions? PM me. :-)
ETHEREUM: It`s probabvly TIME TO BUY!#ChanceoftheyearHey tradomaniacs and cryptoheads,
welcome to an analysis of ethereum!
My friends, I think it`s time to buy!
BUY WHY?
In this analysis we wanna take a look at time-cyclers which are clearly underestimates and not as common as the classic TA which is basically used to compare price-action or price-patterns.
From another perspective looking at the big picture, we see that ethereum had an awesome run with the recent impulse-phase down from 5,60 up to it`s peek of 1.436,-!
IS THAT CRAZY? Yeah.. the hype-train of 2017 was very fast and completly sold out and we`ve never seen so many passengers. But ever since the train was so fast a lot of
passengers got shaky hands and sweaty palms. The train was very fast, as fast as no train before and the crowd inside the train felt insecure and fear crept in.
The entire trip was an amazing journey of 399 DAYS and it was obviously time to rest and enjoy the result of this new world record.
The impulse was over and we were heading into a correction which took excactly 399 DAYS until now!
The market indicates more and more evidence for a new rally.
New carbon has been delivered and the burning stoves are clened up and ready for an new ride..
Technical Aspects:
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Timelines:
All Time-Lines are pretty harmonic indicated by the low of the sub-divided SIN-Wave @ the High
of the primary Sin-Wave.
The Alpha-Waves are confirming that cycle and accurate time-lines are indicating a perfct cycle.
The impulse- and corrective phase are showing the same running time of 399 DAYS.
Price-Action:
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Wave 1 has been completed with the previous impulse @ Wave 5 and we`ve made 25513,25%. Since then the corrective-wave retraced down to 83,29$ which is still a very important support.
This retracement indicates a motive wave, which is not a classic impulse but eventually a leading diagonal because WAVE C of the correction went below the territory of WAVE 4 but DID NOT touch the high of Wave 1 again.
This means we see a confirmed MOTIVE-WAVE indicating an uptrend should tend to continue.
The corrective Wave headed down to the 1.272 Extension, which is a very common level.
The second picture indicates optimism of the market:
The active trendchannel was very dominant and predimonated over the market-players behaivor.
But since the strong sell-off down to the corrections low @ 83,29 $ we`ve seen two attempts to break out of this channel.
The first one failed @ the 100 M/A (purple) which was obviously the target of the bulls which this impulse.
The market smelled a chance and didn`t hesitate to push the price out of this channel again.
the correction was very strong because the price danced around the resistance of the channel.
THE NEXT PUMP got confirmed by a consolidation.. and not as ususal.. a hard dump!
The 50 M/A and 1 00 M/A are about cross and care getting in touch for the first time since July 2018!
THIS IS a very crucial moment for ETH and it`s future because the next move could be the the path we choose to go!
Mac-D:
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During the correction the MAC-D used to bounce of the ZERO aka TRIGGERLINE and refuse to get above it.
Since the first attempt to break out of the channel, we`ve seen that the market is not wolling to drop significantly below it again and flucuates around it.
The BULLISH divergence indicates higher LOWS while the price-action indicates lower lows and looks likea triangle with the first attempt to break out.
The classic retest should be the confirmation of this upcoming impulse!
If we violate the MA-Comb, bounce of the triggerline of the MAC-D and and create a new higher highit will be time TO BUY ETHEREUM!
Misspelling? Sorry guys.. I`m lazy! ;-D
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
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Any questions? PM me. :-)
DAX: Weekly outlook and detailed analysis!#CHANES and ENTRYS.HEy tradomaniacs,
welcome to a little weekly outlook!
Overall we`ve seen a very nice correction back above 11.100 which is a decent retracement after this holy moly huge sell-off we`ve seen after the S/H/S and Diamond-Pattern
got triggered though we have not even finished this superir trend-changing pattern yet.
So what can we expect? There is a lot of fundamental things going on, such as the tradewar, brexit and so on.
How ever, we want to focus on the technicals aspects and talk about important price-levels and possibilities.
Technical Aspects:
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Price-Action:
Since we`ve seen the Breakout of the S/H/S or Diamond-Pattern, Team bear seemed to be unstoppable and sold the diva
down to capitulation to a significant Support-Area between 10.261 and 10.859.
After the violatin of the important Resistance @ 11.000 and 11.100 and the confirmed S&R-Flip, we were not able to do anything and just
consolidated in between the red Resistance-Zone and the current major support.
It looks like the market is waiting for a clear impulse in to a direction, thus the next impulse should be crucial for the next upcoming moves.
Either we continue the downtrend with a lower high by a break through 11.100, indicated by the red diagonal resitance of the shorter timeframe,
or we violate the current resistance and probably retest at least 11.416, which is the next subservient resistance marked up in red.
The last "Endboss" to liquidate the bears of this downtrend would be @ 11.500 - 11.700.
A violation of this resistance could completly destroy dow current downtrend.
RSI:
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The RSI indicated a completly oversold market. This might be one reason for this retracement but also could
be interpreted as "Shit, I will never get the DIVA as cheap as now again." and a new impulse upwards in the longer
time frame.
For now we are back and are knocking at the door of Mr. Overbought to enter "Profit-Safe-Zone".
MAC-D:
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After the divergence the market reacted as expected.
We are above teh triggerline but could create a Sell-Signal very soon, since both MA/s tend to cross again.
This would probably force the Bulls of this impulse to safe their profit.
Moving Average:
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The yellow moving average represents a period of the important 100 days.
As you can see, we are currently close below and could bergin to test it, after we`ve seen a breakout!
The blue moving average represents a period of 50 days,
AS you cann see we already respected that MA as a new support and could bounce of it over and over again.
Fibonacci:
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The yellow Fibo-Bar represents the retracement of the very big timeframe and shows a stop of the sell-off close @the 61,8% retracement.
This is a very good sign and represents a valid UPTREND in the big picture, according to the elliot-wave-theory.
Please check my other charts to see more in the weekly chart!
The green Fib-Bar measures the current retracement of the sell-off. We made it above the 23,6% retracement,
which is exactly between the current Support-Zone @ 11.052.
A further retracement up to 38,2 is very likely if we break through the current "Sell-Pressure-Zone".
The sell-off ended btw. @ the 161% extension of the impulse downwards!
Steepness:
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The steepness is decreasing and represents weakness of the down-trend.
How ever, it looks like we currently stuck in a very tight range and should wait for the next impulse to come!
If we fall, then we`d see a classic trend-continuation.
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Conclusion and nice prices to trade:
Sell below 11.050 or below the 50 MA @ 10.971!
Buy @ 11.289 or above 11.300!
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AND as always: Don`t just randomly trade. Wait for your triggers, confirmations.. and.. yeah I guess you know what I mean.
I wish you a great start into the next trading-week!
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
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Any questions? PM me. :-)
EURUSD - Turning points on the Daily Looking at where price is there are a few levels that are jumping out.
The first area is the 1.17400 level, there was a strong move down from this level, looking left however there has been a lot more activity in this area which leads me to believe that although there could be a good opportunity here there is a better and untouched area at 1.19250 area.
If price pushes up toward the 1.9250 area there is a stronger possibility of a drop.
EURUSD - Highest Probability Turning points on the Weekly chart The 1.12000 level has only just been touched and rejected so this could offer another area to get long. However the untouched area that would offer a better low risk chance of a turn would be down at the 1.10200 level.
The highest point offering great shorting opportunities is way up at the 1.22800 area
btc 4hr bearflag breaktarget aligns exactly w/weekly chart 200maInteresting confluence here as I've noticed that the 4hr chart has a bearflag with a long enough pole that the exact drop target would be almost identical to where the weekly charts 200ma is currently residing in the lower 3.2ks. We all know the weekly 200ma provided the ultimate support for out last big bounce around this region...and it also has a high probability of maintaining that support as well as triggering another big bounce and possibly even a double bottom on that 200ma weekly support trendline. The other confluence is how all the multiple time frames (1hr,2hr.3hr, and 4hr) all seem to be on the verge of an impending deathcross and will likely happen one after another like a set of dominoes. The 1 hour chart has already had its deathcross, the 2hr chart deathcross is next then the 3hr then the 4hr and next and so on until we have all the deathcrosses and I anticipate it will be right when the 4hr death cross occurs that we really drop. Of course we have to break down from the bearflag first with confirmation before entering a position in it. . .so until the death crosss occurs this will remain a no trade zone for now. With a big big move to follow soon. One last thing I noticed is that xrpusd appears like they will be having a 4hr deathcross very soon which could spell trouble for xrp in the not so distant future...hopefully xrp can figure out a way to pull off a deathcross fakeout. Anyways good luck out there it was all this confluence that makes me think it will inevitably break down.
SPX500: Years-End-Analysis! RETEST of 2.600 is pretty likely!Hey Tradomaniacs,
welcome to another weekly overview of SPX500!
Let`s take a look at the year and what we see is a huge but delayed Sell-Off compared to the european market!
SPX500 started this year @ 2.666 and was struggeling since then! adter the first sell-off in January 2018
loosing more than 12% we`ve seen the first signs of fear and panic. The uncertainty continued until April before
the market decided to give it anotther try and we`ve "bought" an uptrend to the SPX500 ATH @ 2.940!
What a run - But the double-top-pattern came 8 days later and caused a new massive sell-off!
The breakout and retest of the Trendchannel confirmed the panic and cause more bearish power.
We gave it another attempt.. and bounced off again. The S&R-Flip was cut in stone.
The last attempt was just a desperate act of team Bulls..but they had to surrender.
GG WP?
The next break below this "Tripple-Bot / Tripple-Top ala range was a volatile walk on a knife edge, and the high volume continuation of the
sell-off confirmed that.
We`ve retested two converging trendlines and the Range of Feb. 2017 - June 2017 which is almost at the 1.618 Extension of the first Sell-Off!
A retracement as a retest of the recent support @ 2.600 is pretty likely and should give the bulls another chance to turn this game into their favour.
Technical Aspects:
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Overall you can see the market is still very freaking volatile and attractive to daytrade.
After the recent massive sell-off below the low of the YEAR at 2.530, team BEARS didn`t stop until we`ve reached the
low of two converging trendlines @ 2.2321. We´ve retraced 38,2% but it should be pretty likely to retest at least the years low or the
61,8% retracement, which is excactly at the previous support (2.600).
The Wave-Count is not complete anymore.. I don`t know why, but it just dissappeare and I`m a lazy person! ;-D
You can see that we are still in a correction.
The question is: Will this still be a correction? Or do we head into a downtrend?
We are currently in WAVE 4 of WAVE (Y) (which is actually WAVE C).. but I think it`s easier to understand that way.
It`s pretty likely to see a retest of 2.600!
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All fundamentals are pretty bearish! Looking at the FED`s policy and its plans to increase the interest rate
we will ahve to expect way less liquidity, consume and investments in the market.
THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR THE WALLSTREET ;-D
We will see what happens!
I WISH YOU A HAPPY NEW YEARS EVE! Enjoy the time with family and friends! :-)
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
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EUR/USD: The years-end-analysis - Likely to see PARITY!Hey Tradomaniacs,
welcome to another weekly overview of EUR/USD!
Let`s take a look at the year and what we see is a huge Sell-Off aswell!
EUR/USD started this year @ 1,19873 and found our years high @ 1,25628 in feburary.
After that we`ve just consolidated in a range between the peak and 1,22.
FED`s rate hikes consistently punished the EUR which was affected by many different political circumstances
like Brexit, italy, france and so on.
The European Central Bank decided to quit the QE not as expected - But these might be the first signs of a hawkish policy.
But will we seriously see a rate hike this year? I don`t think so.
What is the consequence of the financial crisis in 2008?
The ECB did nothing else than shifting a problem with financial injections by a ZERO-interest-rate-policy
and the Money-Print-Rage + the QE.
I bet you`ve heared about the quantity equation.
The best way to fight inflation is to increase the interest rate. Since the recession is slowly on its way to destroy
our economy again indicated by a cooling down economy and stockmarket the ECB can not just increase the interest-rate in 2019
as planned and Draghi probably wont even increase them during his term.
Why? Because the only way to suppor the economy is cheap debts/money/credits.
Technical aspects:
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After the break through the Neckline we`ve seen a test of the 61,6% retracement and could show us the first impulse
after the breakout of this S/H/S-Pattern. the next move is a retracement back to the trendline, where we bounced off again
and created a doji aboce the candles body.
Is all this a retracement ala kissback before we continue the journey to the south called "parity"?
The FED`s policy is pretty hawkish because Jerome Powel has officially confirmed that the FED-PUT is gone.
He won`t take a look at the Wallstreet anymore and prefers to take the economy and its climate as his indicator for his monetary policy.
The S/H/S-Pattern target would be @ 1,05 which is between the 1.414 and 1.618 Fibonacci-Extension.
The time-Zones are pretty accurate and should be taken seriously.
Conclusion: I`m more bearish but it`s all up to the political situations around us in Europe plus
the ECB`s upcoming desicions.
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We will see what happens!
I WISH YOU A HAPPY NEW YEARS EVE! Enjoy the time with family and friends! :-)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
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Any questions? PM me. :-)
GOLD: Years-End-Outlook! We are at the CRUCIAL ZONE!Hey Tradomaniacs,
welcome to another weekly overview of Gold!
Let`s take a look at the year and what we see is crazy!
Gold started very well with the years-end-rally of 2017 and retestet the High of 2016!
Technical aspects:
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Gold was steady inside a range of 1.303 - 1.365 and broke through the important support of 1.280!
This caused a massive sell-off as every else down to to low of 1.160 which got stronger after
we`ve violated the trendline which started at the low of November 2015.
And as always - the 61,8% retracement was the bulls HEROS which is @ 1.183 and is the current support
after this sell-off. We`ve started to retrace up to the trendline again and are currently at a VERY crucial ZONE.
This ZONE is a very strong resistance and should be decisive for the next move!
We are at the 61,8% retracement of the previous sell-off which is at the trendline
Addotionally we`ve almost reached the 1,61% extension-level of the bulls whose bought this retracement.
Time to take profit or stack up positions?
Is all this a downtrend and we continue after this retracement?
Or will this turn out to be a fakeout and we continue the uptrend above the trendline?
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Fundamentally I see a lot of potential in Gold which alwys used to be a safe haven in bloody stock-markets.
The inverted yield-curve used to be a very reliable indicator for a upcoming recession and could change the cashflow
out of stocks into alternatives like gold!
We will see what happens!
I WISH YOU A HAPPY NEW YEARS EVE! Enjoy the time with family and friends! :-)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
DAX: The years end analysis! *WEEKLY UPDATE*Hey tradomaniacs,
wow what a crazy and sad year for all bulls.
I hope you all had some short-certs and made a lot of money.
But yes, it is as we all had to expect! The financial crisis of 2008 got shifted by financial injections
of the FED, ECB and other central banks.
The low interest-rate and QE made it worse and worse and might be time to pop the bubble.
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Technical aspects:
The year started 12.889 and the DIVA found its peek @ 13.600!
(Thank you Trump for your Tax-promises which made that possible! ;-D)
Since then the DAX has created the first double-top and turned out to be a S/H/S or Diamond-Pattern which is the first evidence of a trendchange.
It`s crazy, but after the Break through the NEckline we`ve seen another attempt called the retest or Kissback to get above 11.800 again.
That bounce and S&R-Flip was the confirmation for the market to sell-off the Diva and went down to the years-low of 10.284.
HA but look - we could fight our way back to the 61,8% retracement-level which is obviously a very common level for the bulls.
It`s been a long time since the market has been oversold like these days. When is the time for a correction?
Well - My opinion - I think it`s time to see the DIVA trying to get above 10.829 - 11.100 is possible!
The last weekly candle is a huge Doji, which indicates a lot of Buy-Pressure caused by the U.S. Market.
Overall the chart looks pretty bearish, but the price is very low and I think there might be some bulls in the tank trying to buy this one.
We will see!
I WISH YOU GUYS A HAPPY NEW YEARS EVE! Enjoy the time with friends and family!
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
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Weekly Outlook 31st Dec - 4th Jan - AUD/CADPrice has been ranging sideways between 0.9600 and 0.95700 this shows me that there is potentially a chance price may break lower.
There is a fresh Zone at the 0.9300 level which has had one tiny test and bounced from this level. If price shows signs of rejection at this level it could be a good place to get long to the 0.96900 level.
If price were to break to the upside first I would be watching the 0.9600 level to short.
Weekly Outlook 31st Dec - 4th Jan - EUR/USDIm currently in a short sell from the current zone at the 1.14500 level entry was at 1.14600 my Target is 1.13800
The reason Is this has the highest probability of being hit.
After this area we have got a demand zone which has been used twice already, potentially this could now fail and see prices push to the lower zone on the daily at the 1.12100 level.
I will watch and see how price moved at the 1.13500 level as we could see price try one last move up before a further drop