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LEJ2021. Live Cattle Daily. In the golden pocket.Any dedicated live cattle traders, I would love to hear your take! If you are there is no need to read what I have below. You would probably find it very stupid. ------ I do not understand the fundamentals surrounding this market as far as when the high prices are. Doing a quick google search I see from the first image brought up that typically live cattle is falling right about now and getting ready to rebound. We have been rising steadily for a while, so I think it's safe to say the market is not behaving to expectation. That makes me a little uncertain, but I am falling back on TA entirely for any decisions here. I hate to buy anything before I see the momentum in my favor, but if I ever were to buy a zone, this wouldn't be a bad one. I have picked this apart thoroughly, and as non-biased as possible, and I think I did a really good job so I hope you enjoy. ------- One thing I notice is that whenever I say "this wouldn't be the worst" or "this wouldn't be a bad one" historically it has been a bad one. If this goes against me I will have to make some conscious decisions to change just a little in that department. ---------
CME:LEJ2021Long
by emehoke
All aligns for a GREAT BULL NAS The Pattern: From rising wedge to Double bottom, W shape at 30m, and consoliding vollume. Conquering the river of 13000 to break the resting and resume upward movement. The Controller: Fed are subjected to stay dovish on policy and neutral on rising yield, they only consider rising rate if all the indicators reflects which is still well below the target. In fact, Rising rate is fully projected as null prob. On the top of that, the unemployment and growth data is still low that further easy policy sustains through out extended period. The pressure from rising yield make investors tempting to more position of hedging as well as short so that the theme of sustainable low rate and ease policy could take advantages of hedging liquidity and eventually, lead the growth market to new record high. The Time: March and Aprill - The renowned month with historically best performance since 2002, up to 3.5% to 5% upward. Furthermore, the earning reports are ready to carry Year end (holiday), January effects (spending) both best quarter of the year. While The market points to high voltility, its clear sight that the more hedged and shorted it is, the higher and sooner the new record could be reached. The Nap: The Bear appears at the supercycle of February when it took a nice prediected 12% correction to the well achieved high of 12200 (which beautifully called) and quickly break the bearish trend with solid supportive W bottom. This gives a well- needed restful nap for NAS more sustainable record dated back to 5 months ago, and the liquidity that NAS confirms the readiness for another take of record high. This also matches the resting pattern primarily happening in February - after which NAS gradually surges with firm uptrend. The Play: the increasing yield seems the only factor for bear existing at the current market. One might argue its not going to fade at anytime soon; and the play of rotation out of tech shoud continue. However, The rule of game has changed quite drastically. The pandemic is here to stay and so does it effect to the economy. Thus projection of recovery could only be shortened by further gigantic stimulus bill to come. The scale of bill rather get bigger by the stance of Democracy. Eventually, the greater access of economy to larger circulation e.i. higher min wage with reopening on the horizon e.i. more training, recruiting probably triggers the nerve to shout out at inflation risks. Lo and behold, the speed of changing hand is different of inflated price. The CPI and PPI is reported absolutely under controll that inflation on the horizon is very likely outlier event. Furthermore, the reopening is actually one of a kind catalyst for NAS as the major of indices currently comprises those tech name expanding retail business and shipping towards consumer service provider. CONCLUSION: All aligns to one outcome. and the Wall-Street are well repared for this. well done Catie, 🐂 comes and best part of BULL to come with🌜🚀 Disclaimer: This idea is published as the sake of acknowledging one's opinion, not advising to take on any further position and risks. Traders should consider their own risk at any circumstances.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Anaphie
Possible pattern in the overall marketThis is purely hypothetical. It appears a pattern has formed in terms of periods of heavy growth and periods of stalling growth. I was able to chart all 3 majors indices in aggregate thanks to @boji1 's post: What do you all think? Do you think the market will be choppy all year or do you think this apparent pattern will continue and we have another leg higher? Based on the last two cycles, the average return was 11.9% from the start of the growth period to the next rest period. Could see a 12% bounce back in the next 2 months.
TVC:SPX
by EBITDAtiger
7
SPY Hypothetical ScenariosPossible Hypotheticals are shown in the chart. A bounce and reclaim of 200MA is a great indication of a positive outlook for SPY. FIrst possible scenario is we bounce off the 390 level and head back down to support and trade within channel. Second possible scenario is we hold the 200MA and reclaim the 390 level, bounce off the previous level of 395, then proceed to ATHs. Obviously, this is very over-simplified. There are innumerable scenarios. Just posting this for personal reference as well as hear other people's thoughts on the market.
AMEX:SPY
by Brettcorr64
$CLOV Finding The BottomThe bearish channel has broken to the downside and we are now in an unchartered territory. Within this unchartered territory, I expect every $0.50 to be a new support (i.e. $8.50, $8.00, $7.50, $7.00, and so on). As of the time that I am writing this post, we have broken the $8.50 support and found a $8.03 low. It will be difficult to predict where we will find a bottom, but what I can tell you is that $CLOV is severely undervalued at this price. It was undervalued at $10, it is undervalued at $8.00, and it will still be undervalued if it dips below $8.00. $CLOV recent earnings, albeit slower than expected, has proved that it is capable of growth. This will be a winner further down the road. However, if you are in this for a quick buck, $CLOV is not for you. But if you are an investor, do your fullest DD, strengthen your resolves, and buckle your seatbelts, because you are in for a rollercoaster ride until the negative sentiment surrounding $CLOV settles down. Regardless, $CLOV will be a winner for long-term investors. Chamath Palihapitiya once said in a CNBC interview that Clover Health will be their next 10x in 10 years investment, and I truly believe $CLOV is capable of it. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:CLOVLong
by AntrePoint
$CLOV Earnings OutlookFrom 2019 to 2020, $CLOV posted a total revenue growth from $462.3M to $672.9M, net premium revenue growth from $456.9M to $665.7M, decrease in net loss from -$363.7M to -$91.6M, and a decrease in adjusted EBITDA loss from -$175.5M to -$74.4M, among others. $CLOV also saw a 36.3% increase in membership and a 43.2% year-over-year increase in lives under Clover Assistant management to 58,056 membership and over 32,400 lives respectively. For full year 2021 guidance, $CLOV stated a total revenue expectation of $820M to $850M, net loss expectation of -$210M to -$170M, adjusted EBITDA loss expectation of -$190M to -$150M, loss per share of -$0.52 to -$0.42. Furthermore, they are also expecting a 17% to 21% growth in Medicare Advantage membership to 68,000 to 70,000 membership compared to year end 2020's 58,056. Based on the above full year 2020 financial results and full year 2021 guidance reported by Clover Health, I believe it puts us somewhere in the middle of our bear case and base case as said according to our last $CLOV Bear Base Bull outlook, which you can re-visit by looking at the related idea below. In my opinion, despite being off-target, the financial and membership growth that they have posted from 2019 to 2020 has demonstrated their ability to deliver growth, proven the scalability of their business model, and reaffirmed Chamath Palihapitiya statement of $CLOV having a predictable growth model. However, I believe they have shot themselves in their foot with the full year 2021 guidance. Based on the figures they have posted, it tells me that they are expecting a slowdown in growth compared to what they have experienced from 2019 to 2020. This will not be viewed kindly by investors and Wall Street. Going forward, I expect $CLOV to continue trading within the bearish channel, within the range of $8.50 to $10.50. Unless further positive catalyst appears, I do not see $CLOV breaking above the bearish channel yet. Nevertheless, in an environment where many SPAC and companies are trading at a massive speculative values, I see $CLOV being valued realistically at the moment and trading at a realistic price. Once given enough time to play out the growth that $CLOV is currently building, it will be a long-term winner. TLDR: Short-term: Underperform with a trading range of $8.50 to $10.50 unless more positive catalyst appears, Mid/Long-term: Easily >2x from current price. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:CLOVLong
by AntrePoint
7
$CLOV Bear Base Bull Outlook$CLOV continues to move within the symmetrical triangle while being encapsulated by a bearish channel. As we approach the end of the symmetrical triangle, I am expecting a breakout to by next week, as early as Monday. I believe the upcoming earnings on 03/01/2021's post-market to be a major catalyst to which direction the breakout will be. Bear Case: In the event that we get a negative earnings surprise, $CLOV will be headed further down into unchartered territory. The sell-off will likely be exacerbated by weakening market conditions and the lack of PR by Chamath Palihapitiya, Vivek Garipalli, and Clover Health Corp. Throw in the FUD created by the Hidenburg Research's short-seller report, and you have a recipe for a sell-off into the $7 and $8 territory. How soon we recovery from that will likely depend on the impact of the fiscal stimulus, whether there are any positive news released by Clover/Chamath/Vivek, and how long it takes for the short-seller report to be cleared up by the SEC. Base Case: Earnings data come out as expected and there was no deviation compared to what was expected. Due to technical factors such as RSI pointing towards $CLOV being incredibly oversold, volume picking up again, and $CLOV currently being in an area of multiple huge support level, we see a push back to the dynamic resistance of the bearish channel. However, breaking above could prove to be challenging without positive sentiments around $CLOV. We might start consolidating between $10 to $11 or even re-test the dynamic support of the bearish channel. Bull Case: Clover Health Corp releases a positive earnings surprise and Clover/Chamath/Vivek takes the opportunity to boost PR to create more positive sentiments around $CLOV. The aforementioned, supported by bullish technical indicators, pushes $CLOV back to the dynamic resistance of the bearish channel, subsequently breaking beyond it and holding above the bearish channel. As the fiscal stimulus comes in, we see money flowing into the stock market, and $CLOV continue to grow towards $14 and beyond. TLDR: $7-$8 Bear Case, $10-$11 Base Case, >$14 Bull Case. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:CLOVLong
by AntrePoint
6
Weekly Market recap 17: rut into safe-havens?Overview: What's happening? The risk assets have been confirming their short-term weakness and the need to correct and digest recent gains. We can see that most of the stock indices are in negative territory these days. The big technical picture of DXY also suggests possible upward momentum. We can expect the increased volatility in the Forex market in the upcoming months as USDJPY is approaching the long-term triangle's inflexion point. What patterns are driving Forex? DXY has formed H&S pattern on Daily timeframe, which is another evidence of a possible reversal, especially that it's formed around the long-term support. If DXY breaks 91.00, I want to be long on USD against some relatively weak currency. USDJPY tells us the story of the approaching volatility storm in the Forex market. The pair formed a long-term symmetrical triangle. If the triangle breaks out in either direction, it will have a powerful impact on the market as both USD and JPY are safe-haven currencies. No-brainer: short the weakest! At this point, it's good to look for short-sell setups in indices. The logic is simple - consider the indices that got hit the hardest by the correction and historically have been underperforming relative to other indices. HK33HKD and IN50USD are good examples of such relatively weak indices. What's left is to wait for specific setups in these instruments according to your strategy. HK33HKD behaves interestingly - recently I mentioned it's been relatively strong for a short time due to capital inflows from Mainland investors. Now the underlying relative weakness came back and shrugged off recent sentiments of the Hong Kong market. Summing up There may be nice short-sell setups in indices these days. Watch out for the breakouts of the key levels in DXY and USDJPY and proceeding volatility.
TVC:DXY
by Cherry94
Weekly Market recap 16: Preparing for the next leap. Global view: What's happening? While global coronavirus cases rise to 100 million, the risk assets keep rising as well! DXY remains relatively neutral, as it's range-bound between ~90.75 local resistance area and ~88.75 long-term support. I'd confidently consider trades in USD related pairs once DXY breaks either of the range borders. For now, it's better to abstain from USD trend continuation setups. Meanwhile, major stock indices form trend continuation patterns. The consolidation period in the global markets is the best time for the quality trend setups in the relatively strong indices. Betting on the strongest I picked three strongest indices at the moment: US100, JP225USD and HK33HKD. You can see that the American tech index has already recovered from the pullback and makes new highs, while the leading Asian indices are consolidating. Nikkei has been in momentum since it's come out from the 30-year range. Chinese economy looks best during the pandemic compared to the rest of the world. Initially, China A50 index, which represents China Mainland companies was relatively stronger than the Hang Seng index as the political situation in Hong Kong affected the latter one. Now, investors see the discount that appeared in Hong Kong stocks priced higher in Mainland exchanges, which motivates big flows of investments back to Hong Kong. It resulted in the short-term relative strength of Hang Seng compared to China A50. Trading tactics for buying Indices 1. The strategy in Asian indices is simple - buy the breakout the market closes above the recent consolidations (HK33HKD - above 30000; JP225USD - above 29000). 2. Although the best entry in US100 could be the breakout of 13200, I guess it still makes sense buying it intraday for a short-term momentum gain. Conclusion There is not much going on in FX market right now as USD keeps being bound in the range, meanwhile the major stock indices present trend continuation opportunities.
TVC:DXY
by Cherry94