$UCTT go long, potential outperformer in semi equipment spaceUCTT has begun to outperform the overall semiconductor industry represented by the etf SMH. The trend has clearly been broken on the weekly chart.
There has been a good amount of volume in this week so far, creating that very bullish weekly candle. Hoping we finish strong this week. Looking to create a position if it shows continuation.
EV/EBITDA ratios for the leaders in the semiconductor manufacturing equipment; as you can see UCTT has the best one since any EV/EBITDA below 10 is considered healthy.
8.2577 UCTT
16.5404 AMAT
19.0102 LRCX
18.1225 KLAC
Outperform
Price drop range comparisons of NDX, DJI. DJI set to outperformThe NDX has been extremely volatile and high-flying in comparison to the DJI. I believe this trend is set to reverse. With the rotation out of the lofty valuations of tech into quality companies with positive cash flow, war chests in their balance sheet to weather any storm and protect their dividend, and P/E ratios that aren't in nosebleed territory.
As you can see, every time we've had a sell-off recently, the DJI is affected much less than the NDX. As you can see on the 1-week chart, the NDX is flying high above the SPX and the DJI. This outperformance is not sustainable.
As the 10-year treasury passes the average yield of the SPX is 1.5%, the average yield of the DJI is 2.4% will look safer and more attractive as investors seek income since returns will be harder to squeak out. The DJI should begin to outperform both the SPX and the NDX.
Price range in blue= NDX
Price range in gray= DJI
1-day chart with price drop range comparisons of NDX & DJI
4 hour charts with price drop ranges:
with out
15-minute chart with price drop ranges
This is not investment advice, just a theory. Do your own due diligence and gauge your risk properly.
XLRE, under the radar breakout in playIf anyone has been watching the SPDR sectors lately, XLRE has quietly outperformed. Strength in REITS usually signifies a strengthening economy. Maybe this is an under the radar reopening play? Options premiums are dirt cheap and might be worth a look. Anyway, the charts speak for themselves.
Is It Time For XLRE To Shine?The first chart shows $XLRE breaking through resistance. I find the base formed before breaking through to be bullish.
The second chart shows XLRE relative to the SPY. Looks like the long ward down trend is over.
Can XLRE outperform moving forward?
Thoughts?
S&P 500 Sector Performance: www.tradingview.com
AMEX:SPY
AMEX:XLRE
2019: Long-Term Bonds > Stocks... Why?TLT has outperformed SPX by roughly 6% at time of writing. Many factors: FED cushioning rates, yield chasing by entities in negative-yield countries, fears of global slowdown, escalating trade war, and the perceived invincibility of U.S. markets.
There could be a seriously nasty rate spike within the next 2 years. As yields drop there is less incentive for entities to invest in bonds... if yields drop below the purported rate of inflation, which they already have (1.48% US10Y vs 1.6% PCE), there is no longer an incentive to hold them, as they produce negative returns. The deeper yields fall below inflation, or the higher inflation rises above yields, the stronger the momentum of a selloff. Will it happen? Free market forces would say yes, but considering the FED can print anything into a rainbow, the span and severity of such a spike is indeterminate... chances are that it will be uncontrollable for enough time to do some damage before the right players come to consensus on how to backstop it.
Long term we all know where this leads - negative rates for everyone, yay! A serious spike in yields should be seen as a patient opportunity. When the time is right, trade /TN, TLT options or whatever bond instrument you prefer.
Ventas Inc - Bullish defensive ideaVTR is real estate investment trust (REIT). The technicals are great (check chart).
Market analysis:
Generally after an inversion in a yield curve , the following sectors tend to outperform the market:
XLU (Utilities)
XLRE (Real Estate)
XLP (Consumer Staples)
The following tend to underperform :
XLK (Technology)
XL (Industrials)
XLB (Materials)
CERN Revisit Chart AnalysisCERN is a stock that was analyzed in April and continues to outperform the market at this time. CERN has shifted to a consolidation, which should provide more upside opportunities.