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Overbought

S&P500 (SPY) Hits Target #2 Today!Traders, though we've still got a ways to go to our final target of 670-700 on the SPY, it is worth celebrating our direct hit of 600 today. I remember a year ago drawing out 563 as a first target for our blow-off top and I was laughed at. Bears were in their mood and hungry. They wanted more blood. But a combo of our Elliot Wave and a daily inverse head and shoulders showed us exactly where we would hit. Then I spotted this nice cup and handle on the weekly. If you remember, it was almost invalidated with that China carry trade flash crash. But I stood my ground and stated that we would need to see another weekly open and close below our neckline before the bet was off. That did not happen and we are well on our way to that 670-700 final target. However, before we get there, I do believe our 600 level on the charts will provide some psychological resistance. Admittedly, this was more of a guess than anything when I had drawn it up and placed it on my chart several weeks ago. But now, we are seeing overbought conditions on both the daily and weekly charts. Are we a bit over-heated? I think we may be and should be prepared to see a bit of a drop, or at least a week or so of sideways price action, before we break 600. Unlike my first target at which I sold and buy the carry trade dip for massive profit, I don't know that I will be selling here. 600, as I stated already, was more of a guess than anything. But I am pretty decent at making these guesses. Experience and lots of psychology and chart study has taught me. Before I get ahead of myself though, let's watch and see what the market decides to do next week. ✌️ Stew
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
1
Will Three White Soldiers Lead the Way?OANDA:XAUUSD Analysis 4H Chart Current Price: 2447.215 Analysis Summary • Three White Soldiers Pattern • Volume Analysis • Overbought and Resistance Zone • Overall Bullish Trend Three White Soldiers: The chart shows a clear Three White Soldiers pattern, a strong bullish reversal candlestick formation indicating potential upward momentum. This pattern suggests consistent buying interest, as each candle closes higher than the previous one, signaling sustained demand. Volume Analysis: A closer look at volume reveals a weakening trend in the third candle of the Three White Soldiers pattern, suggesting a slight decline in buying strength: • 1st Candle: 74.889K • 2nd Candle: 134.962K • 3rd Candle: 41.235K This drop in volume in the last candle may indicate limited buying pressure, warranting caution before assuming continued upward movement. Overbought and Resistance Zone: The price is approaching a significant Overbought and Resistance Zone, which could act as a barrier to further upward movement in the short term. Combined with the lower volume in the third candle, this zone could lead to a potential consolidation or minor pullback before the next upward move. Despite this, the bullish reversal signaled by the Three White Soldiers suggests that the overall trend remains positive. Interpretation: Considering the overall bullish trend, the weakening volume in the last candle of the Three White Soldiers, and the approach to the Overbought and Resistance Zone, we anticipate the following: 1. Retracement to Support: The price may retrace down to 2739.624 before rebounding back to the Resistance Zone. 2. Potential Pullback to Ultimate Support: A further dip may take the price towards Ultimate Support at 2734.375. 3. Continued Bullish Momentum: After testing these support levels, the price is expected to resume its upward trend, with a potential breakout beyond the Resistance Zone, targeting the Extreme Overbought Zone. Key Levels to Watch: • Support: 2714.844 • Ultimate Support: 2734.375 • Retracement Level: 2739.624 • Overbought Zone: 2754.116 • Extreme Overbought: 2758.565 • Resistance: 2758.565 Overall Trend: The overall trend remains bullish, with expectations of continued upward movement following any short-term pullbacks. This analysis combines technical patterns, volume insights, and trend direction to provide a comprehensive outlook. Happy trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SpicyPips
XAU/USD | Gold has been a good journey, next month however...I will try to keep this one short.. Hi everyone, it has been some time (7 months) since I posted my first idea stating Gold's potential. Gold reached the target 2700$ last week. However, during this week or next week possibly, I am expecting a solid change in direction that will start a short-term consolidation phase. Don't get me wrong, Gold is extremely bullish on the long-term, forming this cup & handle like formation. But throughout the next month, I believe gold will fall around ~2600$, in the worst case around ~2500$. My reasoning is as follows, Looking at the Monthly Chart, Gold's bullish rally carried Gold above the approximately 10-year trend, this is expected to some extent, because Gold has a lot more buying power than it had years before and there is literally a war going on, this too puts pressure on bull side. However, one thing especially caught my attention, RSI is again over 80, which indicates Gold is overbought. In most of the cases where a stock is overbought a consolidation phase is inevitable. Looking at Gold's history, when RSI pushed these levels, in every single case, price dropped. I've added a view that shows the whole history of Gold. And I think this view also suggest sell pressure around the current price. Note that blue marked zone is an approximation because not any information from the past is present. To be able to keep track, I've added this view of the last 4 years. This view also indicates a lot of sell pressure for the short-term. I will update this view from time to time as Gold plays out. Overall, lots of indications, RSI being the most solid one, show that Gold is looking for a consolidation before moving forward with the bull rally. My only concern right now is, Is gold going to push more before consolidation starts? To be honest, It is not easy to comment on that. Least we can do is wait until a solid reversal on a hourly chart. I wouldn’t suggest shorting in situations like this without waiting for confirmation... Please do your own analysis before taking risks, Stay safe...
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Kivvwi
Approaching Key Levels with Potential Deep Correction Ahead!OANDA:XAUUSD Current Price: 2737.445 2H Chart Reason for Correction: 1H - Monthly: Overbought Zone (Deeper Correction Possible) As indicated on the chart, the price is in an uptrend within an ascending channel on the Daily chart, and a similar trend is observed on the 2H chart, where an additional ascending channel is also forming. Moreover, Gold is currently in the overbought zone across multiple timeframes, from 1H to the Monthly chart. Before a potential correction, the price may rise to the overbought zone at 2753.906 or even the extreme overbought zone at 2773.699. However, it is not necessary for the price to reach these levels, as a correction could begin sooner. A potential correction could target 2700, a significant psychological level, and extend further to 2685. It’s also possible for a deeper correction to occur, which will be addressed in a subsequent analysis. Key Levels: • 2753.90 • 2773.70 • 2700.00 • 2685.44 Happy trading!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SpicyPips
Gold finds a bottom price following sell! Gold and even more so Silver were very overbought in the Daily & Weekly Timeframes, triggering their sell-offs within an hour of FOMC reducing interest rates. I was aware that Gold / Silver were very overbought in these higher-time-frames but I was not watching the indicators so I was also caught off-guard as the Gold-price slides very fast. The Gold-price has recently found a bottom price and has rebalanced and corrected the overbought condition.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
Palantir Technologies and a strong look into its FundamentalsNYSE:PLTR is one of the most popular stocks of the last 2 years , and not for no reason being a high revenue growth stock "16.8% Growth Rate" , My personal problem with the stock lays with the valuation holding a PE Ratio of 201x, and a forward PE Ratio of 172.5x, a 20.1x Price to Books Ratio, and a 32.8x Price to Sales (Revenue) Ratio. an interesting Return on Equity of 10% , A Return on Assets of 4.6% , And an Return on Capital Employed of 6.7% , with Net margins of 16.3%. Being Completely "Debt" free according to there Balance Sheet -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Valuation: PE Ratio: 201x Forward PE Ratio: 172.5x Price to Sales: 32.8x Price to Books Ratio: 20.1x ----------------------------------- Balance Sheet: Cash: US$4.00b Debt: US$0 Equity: US$4.14b Total Liabilities: US$1.05b Total Assets: US$5.19b ----------------------------------- Strengths and Weaknesses: The Valuation to me personally is a weakness, however the Balance sheet is a Strength in my view. I think based on the price I currently would wait to add this one to my own portfolio however all investors and traders are different. ----------------------------------- Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and in no way am I signaling a sell, buy, or hold opinion on this stock (Palantir Technologies) I am just giving my personal opinion as a hobby trader, I have no certifications and I am not a financial analyst, I also may be wrong about how I feel about the stock. I want you to do plenty more research on this and the stocks you are interested in because the stock market always holds a lot of risk that may pose different risks and overall be different for each investor and trader. Please do not make opinions based on this idea or any idea. Please be careful! this post is only for conversation. ----------------------------------- Idea:
NYSE:PLTRLong
by BullishCanadianInvestor
11
ARB/USDT 15m / D BB & FVG / ELLIOT / LIQUIDATIONS / FIBOAccording to higher timeframes, the market sentiment is bullish. We are moving within an ascending channel with the potential to rise to 0.7416. To increase the probability of this outcome, the price needs to establish itself above the ascending channel. Locally, within the range of the daily breaker block (D BB) and the daily imbalance (D FVG), three potential entry points are visible: 1. Liquidity grab (Sellside liquidity) 2. 0.5 Fibo 3. 0.618 Fibo / bottom of the ascending channel 4. The target is the local high, which is at the midline of the channel. Locally, based on the EFIATR oscillator, volume, and liquidation levels, there is a likelihood of growth. According to Elliott Wave theory, a 5-wave pattern and an ABC correction in the 4th wave are visible, which further increases the probability of upward movement.
Long
by WoWAcEDuDe
3
Here’s a warning for latecomers to the EUR/USD rallyEUR/USD has surged to highs not seen since July 2023. However, such has been the rush to buy since the start of August, it’s now sitting at extremely overbought levels on RSI (14) on the daily. That should be a worry for late-to-the-party longs considering that outside the early stages of the pandemic, whenever EUR/USD has been this overbought, it’s coincided with some form of near-term top. Some have been small reversals, other considerably larger. While that doesn’t guarantee another reversal on this occasion, it is a warning to those chasing the pair higher ahead in anticipation of Fed rate cuts. They were priced in long ago with the magnitude of expected easing not really changing over the past fortnight even as the dollar sank. The move comes across as technically driven, potentially making the signal from RSI more significant. If we were to see a EUR/USD reversal, 1.1140, 1.10452 and 1.0948 are downside levels to note. Should the signal from RSI prove to be false, a continuation of the rally would likely target a push towards 1.12760, the high set in July last year. Watch for a topping pattern to strengthen the conviction of the trade. That’s not arrived yet on the daily timeframe. DS
Short
by FOREXcom
$AUDCAD | Sell Trade | Market Exec | Technical Confluences: - Price actions are now at Stochastic Overbought conditions in Daily, H4 and H1 - Price action is at the 78% Fibo retracement levels which also coincides with a Interest Zone Fundamental Confluences: - Both currencies are considered as commodity currencies and both currencies require strong commodity prices to prosper and it all comes down to growth - Australia's growth is more concentrated on China's outlook and Canada's very US-centric still. - We are still not seeing much growth momentum in the China space and with US-side having a soft landing possibility, Canada's prospects should be better at the moment ----- Will be taking a position into a sell OANDA:AUDCAD position. Targeting to TP approximately half the position at the 50% Fibo Extension levels (in blue) and move my SL levels to B/E. It will depend on how the price action is at the 50% Fibo's Interest Zone. This trade will be the battle of the Interest Zones. Full TP are the 61%/78% Fibo Extension levels. Remember, DYOR.
Short
by weekendanalyst
NZDCAD - OverBought Territory... Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 NZDCAD has been overall bullish , trading within the rising channel in blue. Currently, NZDCAD is approaching the upper bound of the channel. Moreover, the zone marked in red is a massive supply zone. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the supply zone and upper blue trendline acting as non-horizontal resistance. 📚 As per my trading style: As #NZDCAD is around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
1
EURUSD showing weakness in early Oceania trade in NZ Monday. An hour into trading of the New Zealand Oceania & Asian session, the week opener, EURUSD is already showing weakness. I see a good short trade here across the Asian session and possibly running into European & New York session. On the flip-side, there is also weakness in the USD, see my recent chart on USDX. However, I don't see this real weakness playing out in the USD until mid-week or perhaps Tuesday. USDX is under it's moving averages on the daily timeframe, last Thursday it retreated harshly following a bullish Heads 'n' Shoulders pattern on the 1HR chart. Cheers, Chris
Short
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
GBPCAD - Overbought Zone AheadHello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 GBPCAD has been overall bullish from a long-term perspective, trading within the rising channel in red. Currently, GBPCAD is approaching the upper bound of the channel. Moreover, it is also approaching the upper bound of the medium-term channel marked in blue. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper red/blue trendlines acting as non-horizontal resistance. 📚 As per my trading style: As #GBPCAD approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Short
by TheSignalyst
Potential Buy OrderSummary The analysis reveals an upward trend in the exchange rate. The recent drop was expected due to overbought conditions, with prices now recovering towards the resistance level at 163.25. The Fibonacci analysis indicates significant support levels at 157.35, while resistance is identified at 162.00. Technical indicators suggest that it is too early to place safe buy orders. Trend Determination The direction of the exchange rate in recent times is depicted by the primary upward trend channel that has formed, with price movements occurring in the middle zone. The channel's range is approximately 1200 pips, with the price distance from the upper resistance limit being 600 pips and from the lower limit 600 pips. In a shorter time frame, a secondary upward trend channel is observed. The price trajectory is upward, with movements recorded in the lower zone of the trend channel. The secondary channel's range is 525 pips, with the price distance from the upper resistance limit being 485 pips and from the lower limit 40 pips. The recent drop in the exchange rate was expected as prices had reached overbought levels. This increases the likelihood of the price moving higher. The first resistance level is set at 163.25, and the support level is at 152.60. Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Fibonacci Retracement The Fibonacci Retracement analysis shows that the recent downtrend was a corrective move. Specifically, the exchange rate halted at 157.35 and is now moving upwards. This point is a significant support level, and its potential breach could start a downward trajectory. Additional support levels are observed at 156.20 and lower at 154.74. Currently, there is no clear confirmation for future price rises, as movements between 157.35 and 158.96 make drawing conclusions difficult. Placing trades while the exchange rate moves within these prices carries very high risk. Safer trading positions appear to be above 159.96 for buy orders and below 156.20 for sell orders. Fibonacci Expansion Additional resistance levels, using Fibonacci Expansion, are identified at 159.96, 162.00, and 164.34 – 163.63. The latter, as shown in the chart, might be a significant resistance level, as two resistance levels from different Fibonacci Expansions converge. Technical Indicator Analysis Moving Averages Currently, the exchange rate prices are between the moving averages. This indicates that it is still too early to place buy orders. MACD The MACD is moving positively in a downward direction. The divergence observed between the exchange rate prices and the MACD results was confirmed by the recent corrective downtrend. At present, the indicator's results do not support placing a buy order. Future Movement Scenarios Scenario A The first scenario concerns the potential upward movement of prices. Confirmation of this scenario comes from two factors. The first is the upward breakout of the moving average from the price. The second is the exchange rate moving above 159.96. The first resistance level is at 163.25, followed by 164.34. The reversal point is placed relatively lower at 157.35. Stance: Neutral | Outlook: BUY | Risk for placing orders: Moderate Entry Point: > 160.00 | Target: 163.25 | Down Limit: 157.35 Scenario B The possibility of a continued downtrend can occur if the exchange rate moves below 156.20. In this case, the trajectory needs to be reassessed.
Long
by Forex_Analytica
AAPL Signals Short Term DropOf the 71 times AAPL triggers a sell on my RSI indicator (the magenta arrow at the bottom of the chart), the stock drops 97.143% of the time in the following 25 trading days. During 37% of the successful drops, the stock moves upward for 1-4 more days after the signal occurs in what I call the delay period. What qualifies as a successful drop? The sell signal was triggered based on the closing price of AAPL stock on July 10, 2024 at 232.98. This means 97% of the time the stock will move below this closing price in the near-term. 2.85% of the time, the stock does not drop below this price over the following 25 trading days. The stock has always dropped below the signal closing price by at least 0.266% over the next 100 trading days. On the chart above, the red boxes at the top are the delay zones of interest. The larger red box contains 100% of all delayed movement. The smaller box contains the stock's top or peak of the delay for 50% of the occasions. The same holds true for the two large green target boxes on the bottom. The final downward movement bottoms in the smaller green box 50% of the time, while the much larger green box contains bottoms or valleys for all downward movement. This delay period of potential continued upward movement has historically had a maximum 3% gain before the stock eventually dropped. Regarding the bottom of the drop. Over the next 25 bars, it can occur on any day in the range with the median bottom occurring by day 8. 75% of the bottoms have occurred before day 18. The stock drops a minim of 0.266%, and median of 5.021%. 25% of the bottoms are no lower than 2.152%, while 75% of the drops are 8.3% or less. The four shallowest drops over the next 25 days have been 0.266% (September 2010), 0.312% (February 2017), 0.827% (March 2019), and, 0.868% (August 2020) while the four deepest drops have been 63.23% (August 2000), 26.58% (December 1999), 26.51% (January 2006), and 24.80% (September 1999). The most recent double-digit percentage drop was 15% in April 2019. All shallow drops occurred in the most recent strong bull market, while the largest drops were part of the dot-com bubble burst. While this current potential drop will likely avoid the sharper end of sell-offs, it is always interesting to see the strength and accuracy of signals. Historical movement is not indicative of future movement, but it is good to have as a data point.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by StockSignaler
USDJPY - Bearish => Bullish => Bearish?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 As per my last two analysis (attached on the chart), USDJPY rejected the $160 resistance and traded lower, then rejected the lower trendlines and traded higher. What's next? USDJPY has been trading within a medium-term rising channel marked in orange. And currently, it is hovering around the upper bound of the channel. Moreover, it is retesting the $160 resistance level again. 🏹 Thus, it is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper orange trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance. 📚 As per my trading style: I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
1
EURCHF | Short D1 | Market Exec | Building Momentum for Risk OffTechnical Confluences for Trade: - Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on D1, H4 and H1 time-frames - Stochastics are also Overbought in multiple Cross-CHF pairs and even on USDCHF pair. - Price action is close to multiple Supply zones - Price action is close to multiple Resistance Trendlines as well - Targeting the 50% Fibo retracement for this trade Fundamental Confluences for Trade: - There seems to be some disconnect between asset classes and with everyone already so 'risk-on', the risk-off build up momentum is ripe for the taking. Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 0.9830 - 0.9870 SL @ 0.9942 TP 1 @ 0.9720 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved) TP 2 @ 0.9598 Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 2.59 (Depending on Entry Level) ________________________________ Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated! If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies. If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D ________________________________ Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. Any websites / brokers / applications suggested here are also provided as informational purpose only. ________________________________
Short
by weekendanalyst
SELL PNB spot cmp 133 target 110 SL 139Technically, there is a distribution going on and sign of exhaustion in strong rally. Multiple times the stock face correction from higher level and then later on it only managed to cross the previous high by some margin to fall again. This means big players selling their delivery. Fundamentally, its already overvalued with high PE and fairly valued Price to Book. So combined analysis says that it can fall to 110 levels soon with any support from market fall.
NSE:PNBShort
by PrashantDahale