Will Three White Soldiers Lead the Way?OANDA:XAUUSD Analysis
4H Chart
Current Price: 2447.215
Analysis Summary
• Three White Soldiers Pattern
• Volume Analysis
• Overbought and Resistance Zone
• Overall Bullish Trend
Three White Soldiers:
The chart shows a clear Three White Soldiers pattern, a strong bullish reversal candlestick formation indicating potential upward momentum. This pattern suggests consistent buying interest, as each candle closes higher than the previous one, signaling sustained demand.
Volume Analysis:
A closer look at volume reveals a weakening trend in the third candle of the Three White Soldiers pattern, suggesting a slight decline in buying strength:
• 1st Candle: 74.889K
• 2nd Candle: 134.962K
• 3rd Candle: 41.235K
This drop in volume in the last candle may indicate limited buying pressure, warranting caution before assuming continued upward movement.
Overbought and Resistance Zone:
The price is approaching a significant Overbought and Resistance Zone, which could act as a barrier to further upward movement in the short term. Combined with the lower volume in the third candle, this zone could lead to a potential consolidation or minor pullback before the next upward move. Despite this, the bullish reversal signaled by the Three White Soldiers suggests that the overall trend remains positive.
Interpretation:
Considering the overall bullish trend, the weakening volume in the last candle of the Three White Soldiers, and the approach to the Overbought and Resistance Zone, we anticipate the following:
1. Retracement to Support: The price may retrace down to 2739.624 before rebounding back to the Resistance Zone.
2. Potential Pullback to Ultimate Support: A further dip may take the price towards Ultimate Support at 2734.375.
3. Continued Bullish Momentum: After testing these support levels, the price is expected to resume its upward trend, with a potential breakout beyond the Resistance Zone, targeting the Extreme Overbought Zone.
Key Levels to Watch:
• Support: 2714.844
• Ultimate Support: 2734.375
• Retracement Level: 2739.624
• Overbought Zone: 2754.116
• Extreme Overbought: 2758.565
• Resistance: 2758.565
Overall Trend:
The overall trend remains bullish, with expectations of continued upward movement following any short-term pullbacks.
This analysis combines technical patterns, volume insights, and trend direction to provide a comprehensive outlook. Happy trading!
Overbought-condition
Gold finds a bottom price following sell!
Gold and even more so Silver were very overbought in the Daily & Weekly Timeframes, triggering their sell-offs within an hour of FOMC reducing interest rates.
I was aware that Gold / Silver were very overbought in these higher-time-frames but I was not watching the indicators so I was also caught off-guard as the Gold-price slides very fast.
The Gold-price has recently found a bottom price and has rebalanced and corrected the overbought condition.
EURUSD showing weakness in early Oceania trade in NZ Monday.
An hour into trading of the New Zealand Oceania & Asian session, the week opener, EURUSD is already showing weakness. I see a good short trade here across the Asian session and possibly running into European & New York session.
On the flip-side, there is also weakness in the USD, see my recent chart on USDX. However, I don't see this real weakness playing out in the USD until mid-week or perhaps Tuesday. USDX is under it's moving averages on the daily timeframe, last Thursday it retreated harshly following a bullish Heads 'n' Shoulders pattern on the 1HR chart.
Cheers,
Chris
Potential Buy OrderSummary
The analysis reveals an upward trend in the exchange rate. The recent drop was expected due to overbought conditions, with prices now recovering towards the resistance level at 163.25. The Fibonacci analysis indicates significant support levels at 157.35, while resistance is identified at 162.00. Technical indicators suggest that it is too early to place safe buy orders.
Trend Determination
The direction of the exchange rate in recent times is depicted by the primary upward trend channel that has formed, with price movements occurring in the middle zone. The channel's range is approximately 1200 pips, with the price distance from the upper resistance limit being 600 pips and from the lower limit 600 pips.
In a shorter time frame, a secondary upward trend channel is observed. The price trajectory is upward, with movements recorded in the lower zone of the trend channel. The secondary channel's range is 525 pips, with the price distance from the upper resistance limit being 485 pips and from the lower limit 40 pips.
The recent drop in the exchange rate was expected as prices had reached overbought levels. This increases the likelihood of the price moving higher. The first resistance level is set at 163.25, and the support level is at 152.60.
Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
The Fibonacci Retracement analysis shows that the recent downtrend was a corrective move. Specifically, the exchange rate halted at 157.35 and is now moving upwards. This point is a significant support level, and its potential breach could start a downward trajectory. Additional support levels are observed at 156.20 and lower at 154.74.
Currently, there is no clear confirmation for future price rises, as movements between 157.35 and 158.96 make drawing conclusions difficult. Placing trades while the exchange rate moves within these prices carries very high risk. Safer trading positions appear to be above 159.96 for buy orders and below 156.20 for sell orders.
Fibonacci Expansion
Additional resistance levels, using Fibonacci Expansion, are identified at 159.96, 162.00, and 164.34 – 163.63. The latter, as shown in the chart, might be a significant resistance level, as two resistance levels from different Fibonacci Expansions converge.
Technical Indicator Analysis
Moving Averages
Currently, the exchange rate prices are between the moving averages. This indicates that it is still too early to place buy orders.
MACD
The MACD is moving positively in a downward direction. The divergence observed between the exchange rate prices and the MACD results was confirmed by the recent corrective downtrend. At present, the indicator's results do not support placing a buy order.
Future Movement Scenarios
Scenario A
The first scenario concerns the potential upward movement of prices. Confirmation of this scenario comes from two factors. The first is the upward breakout of the moving average from the price. The second is the exchange rate moving above 159.96. The first resistance level is at 163.25, followed by 164.34. The reversal point is placed relatively lower at 157.35.
Stance: Neutral | Outlook: BUY | Risk for placing orders: Moderate
Entry Point: > 160.00 | Target: 163.25 | Down Limit: 157.35
Scenario B
The possibility of a continued downtrend can occur if the exchange rate moves below 156.20. In this case, the trajectory needs to be reassessed.
EURCHF | Short H1 | Market Exec | Taking a Safe Haven TradeTechnical Confluences for Trade:
- Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on H4 & D1 time-frame
- Price action is at a Consolidation/Supply area
- Price action may reverse towards the lower Consolidation/Demand area
Suggested Trade:
Entry @ Area of Interest 0.9815 -0.9835
SL @ 0.9879
TP 1 @ 0.9767 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved)
TP 2 @ 0.9707
Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 2.00 (Depending on Entry Level)
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Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks.
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USDJPY return to meanAs I have said before, vying for 152+ is pure mental illness borne out of greed and brain-to-bull-market replacement.
Times of easy money off longing the dollar are over. CPI has shown this. The only things still up are fuel and rent, and arguably so.
As with anything, zoom out before you get excited and lose money. This is the only PSA I will leave here for a CONSIDERABLE time being.
Bitcoin(BTC): We Are Going Towards Re-Test ZoneSince yesterday, we have been having a nice movement so far toward our major resistance zone, potentially fulfilling that re-test we have been waiting for!
We are aiming here to see the price hover near this zone and open a nice mid-term short position with some major targets and FVG zones to be filled during that movement we are looking for!
Swallow Team
BTC to see SHARP MASSIVE HUGE pullback in next 48 hoursHello everyone! With BTC having a run like it has in such a short amount of time, a logical trader knows that a price correction is massively over due.
Using my technical analysis, I have calculated the price of BTC to drop down, within the next 48 hours. Not long after it will bounce back up but not before it goes back down quite a bit.
This is just my technical analysis, and although I am a pro, I do not offer ANY financial advice.
NFA!
AAPL's Overbought Indicators Hint at Possible CorrectionCurrently, Apple Inc. (AAPL) shares are presenting intriguing signals for discerning investors. Two key technical indicators, Stochastic RSI and MACD, provide indications that AAPL may have reached a point of overbought conditions.
Stochastic RSI, serving as a measure of market saturation, highlights AAPL's overbought condition, suggesting that the price has likely reached a level prone to correction or decline. Furthermore, MACD shows negative divergence, indicating the potential weakening of the upward momentum in prices.
It is essential to direct attention to the Support and Resistance level (SNR) around 182.34. This level not only boasts a strong history as a previous resistance level but may also play a significant role as a support level.
However, it is crucial to bear in mind that trading always involves risk, and trading decisions should be based on comprehensive analysis and well-calculated risk assessments.
#OIL selling opportunityHi dear traders and colleagues, lets look at oil and see if there is any selling opportunity in this commodity or not.
As you can see on the chart we have done a research and find out that any time when stochastic indicator is in overbought in Weekly timeframe and cross below cross below its signal line we have seen a bearish move by the price.
Other things that gives us more confluences to take this trade is the fact that price currently is testing resistance area and also close to tentative bearish trendline.
from fundamentally perspective also we know although we shortage supply by the side of suppliers especially from Saudi Arabia but the fact that we are close to the end of hiking cycle by the central banks and as a result we can see some damages in economic which cause lower demand for the oil.
These are all showing that at least having a bearish correction move in Oil prices is possible and even if price wants to go higher we can have correction from this area.
VRAUSDT Looking Severely OverboughtA potential Reversal on VRAUSDT is imminent as things are looking incredibly overbought at the moment.
To further back the point of a potential reversal, Bitcoin, which leads the crypto market, is also looking oversold.
On higher timeframes, a reversal has not been signaled yet, but things are also looking oversold.
There can be a potential short squeeze before making it's way down.
This is not financial advice, all ideas are for educational purposes only.
A Negative Month at these Levels Could Signal NVDA Down to $196We are at a point where NVDA is trading at a Macro Monthly Bearish ABCD PCZ and all the Oscillators are sitting in overbought zones. If NVDA sees a negative monthly candle at these levels, it is very likely that these Oscillators will begin to come down again and signal Potential Bearish Action ahead; if we get such a signal at these levels, then I would typically aim for it to go back down to the level of C of the ABCD as a Minimum Target; but given how high this is and how profitable even a 61.8% retrace would be, I will opt to target the 61.8% retrace instead down at $196.32 as it nicely fits into my typical 3:1 risk to reward requirement.
$SPY: 50%-61.8% Retrace Seems Likely Before Continuation HigherThe SPY seems likely to pull back to the levels of $420 to $400 before it can later decide whether it wants to continue the overall Bullish Trend to all-time highs. In the meantime, we are dealing with Double Bearish Divergence on the MACD, Overbought Conditions on the RSI, and a Bearish Engulfing Candle on the 4 Hour all while trading at the 1.13 Retrace of the local range it just broke out of.
Short-Term Technical Analysis:(GOOGL) for the Next Few Weeks!In this trading idea, we delve into the current state of Google (GOOGL) and explore the indications of an overbought condition. With a careful examination of technical indicators, it becomes apparent that a sell-off may be imminent in the near term. The analysis suggests the possibility of Google entering a range-bound phase or even experiencing a continued downward trend. Traders and investors should pay close attention to key support levels as the stock navigates through the next zone, as they may provide valuable insights for potential entry or exit points
BTCUSD Ready to exit this big diamondBTCUSD reached further the supply area in overbought condition. A potential decrease of 7% can occur if the price action interact with the anchored VWAP from ATH. This potential movement can ignite an impulsive 5-wave bearish exiting of this big diamond pattern, which is likely complete.
Fisher Transform suggests the direction of the price action in 2H and 1D timeframes. Overbought condition on macro scenario, in which the price seems to be form a top, ready to a swing downward to complete a 5th wave of a expanded ending diagonal, likely to finish the actual bearmarket.
INDUS - overbought at the resistanceWhat we can see on the chart is that the price of the stock is overbought.
The price is above the upper Bollinger Band, and also the stochastic shows us overbought conditions (above 80).
The price currently is at the resistance, therefore it would be the entry for the short position. Stop loss and target are shown on the chart.
SGFY: Sell the rumour, buy the news!Signify Health
Short Term - We look to Sell at 29.83 (stop at 33.46)
There is market rumour that Amazon, United Health and CVS are interested in buying this company. This led to a surge in the stock in premarket. We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. Bespoke resistance is located at 30.00. Selling spikes offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 20.04 and 18.00
Resistance: 30.00 / 34.00 / 40.00
Support: 20.00 / 16.00 / 12.00
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Be prepared to short a cross over of the MACD on Nasdaq Futures.In spite of all major economic indicators showing a rapid decay of conditions and inflation showing no signs of letting up, the market continues its rally, now into its 7th week. Nasdaq investors seem particularly focused on buying, even under selloff pressure. This is what I call a zombie market. It's hard to wrap ones head around why the market continues higher, except to recognize too much liquidity in the market and stock purchases made in desparation, for lack of a better word.
With consumer sentiment at all time lows, and concerns within the market, this market is setting itself up for a rapid downward move to the lows. Be cautious and wait for the MACD to cross, before you look for your set up to short. In the mean time, I would wait for a one day pullback to relieve the overbought condition and go long, using stops to make sure you're not caught in a huge plummet downward, which can come at any time in my opinion.
If you do not use the MACD, an approximation would be 3 consecutive closes down and a failed rally on the daily to short.
Note: We are in a bull market, regardless what the news says every day. its contrary to what makes sense. I would not recommend any long position, other than intraday trading with stops. This market will resume the down trend eventually, unless by some miracle, the economy recovers.
Will AKAM retest February lows?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 18, 2022 with a closing price of 116.2.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 115.23 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.488% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.983% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 11.105% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 9 trading bars; half occur within 17 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 26 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).