DOGEUSD looks overextended from big-rises. Sell or buy Dip
If you follow the stochastic's at all, esp. on higher timeframes, if you don't well that is fine, but I will share my tip, you never want to see K line (generally blue) crossing down on the D line if you are in a Long position, but an even further bearish possible move is when the K-line crosses down on the 80 Stochastic's level.
Now the fundamentals of the indicator are similar to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), anything above 80 and staying above 80 will become further overbought in a situation where there has been too much recent buying demand orders executed and as such sellers will usually move-in, but traditionally not until k Crosses-down on 80, getting to 75 will probably seal the deal short for sellers as this crossing of K needs to be a sustained crossing and needs to be moving down, this would occur much slower on a daily timeframe of course. Drop to lower timeframes and see what the oversold/overbought condition is for Stochastic's on lower TF's because the more confluence you have with the Daily the better.
It does not necessarily have to be on the Daily, but bigger timeframes carry bigger profits, generally, depending on SL position and risk/reward. Often, the first TF to meet the setup will be a lower TF, but profits can be made on a Crossing of the Daily chart, it would mean the trade is probably safer in higher TF, by that I mean trade goes your way in your intended direction, in this instance Short.
But here is the controversy of Stochastic X-ups (bullish above 20 level) & X-downs (bearish on a break of 80 lower), they are not very reliable when you are going against the trend.
For example, the DOGEUSD crypto has had a massive run lately since bitcoin reached around 75k, despite being at a great price, I believe, its price is overextended and considerably above the 200ema daily, so it becomes a sort of mean reversion situation where sellers form an idea from Stochastic's RSI Price action etc, that it's price needs to cool a bit as its overbought and too much current demand has driven the price too high, but here is the thing, shorting- Doge when its in a bullish uptrend with price above EMA's especially 200 will not be easy.
So this method works better when you are trying to move price (down or up) in the direction of the trend and the path of least resistance. One of the main reasons is because the RSI and Stochastic's give a mixed message when the trend is not your friend. This is because momentum is still to the upside long when above the 80 level on Stochastic's and RSI, momentum is still to the bearish downside when Stochastic's' is below the 20 level. This continued momentum can last a long time in these extended zones above 80 (bullish momentum) or below 20 (bearish momentum) but usually at some point a diminishing momentum occurs as the market forms an opinion that the instrument is overbought > 80 or oversold < 20.
So, the Daily chart shows how price is tipping over, right now a lot of other TFs showing bearishness as well on Stochastic's.
I hope this helps your understanding, a bit long but its a lengthy topic.
By the way, I don't think I will be selling DOGEUSD despite the reasons above, BTCUSD chart does not share this quality of bears moving in, at least not last time I checked a few hours ago.
Overbought-condition
The Daily Chart - Bitcoin - Definite pullback occurring now
BTCUSD is conducting a retrace, at most back to 70,000, the big white inefficient candle needs to be revisited and given some 'love', I note that the daily RSI and MACD are showing bearish momentum for the next little while.
Anyway, who would be game to Short Crypto at the moment. Now is a chance on some of them, which are pulling back with Bitcoin, but this is temporary overbought stuff.
Will Three White Soldiers Lead the Way?OANDA:XAUUSD Analysis
4H Chart
Current Price: 2447.215
Analysis Summary
• Three White Soldiers Pattern
• Volume Analysis
• Overbought and Resistance Zone
• Overall Bullish Trend
Three White Soldiers:
The chart shows a clear Three White Soldiers pattern, a strong bullish reversal candlestick formation indicating potential upward momentum. This pattern suggests consistent buying interest, as each candle closes higher than the previous one, signaling sustained demand.
Volume Analysis:
A closer look at volume reveals a weakening trend in the third candle of the Three White Soldiers pattern, suggesting a slight decline in buying strength:
• 1st Candle: 74.889K
• 2nd Candle: 134.962K
• 3rd Candle: 41.235K
This drop in volume in the last candle may indicate limited buying pressure, warranting caution before assuming continued upward movement.
Overbought and Resistance Zone:
The price is approaching a significant Overbought and Resistance Zone, which could act as a barrier to further upward movement in the short term. Combined with the lower volume in the third candle, this zone could lead to a potential consolidation or minor pullback before the next upward move. Despite this, the bullish reversal signaled by the Three White Soldiers suggests that the overall trend remains positive.
Interpretation:
Considering the overall bullish trend, the weakening volume in the last candle of the Three White Soldiers, and the approach to the Overbought and Resistance Zone, we anticipate the following:
1. Retracement to Support: The price may retrace down to 2739.624 before rebounding back to the Resistance Zone.
2. Potential Pullback to Ultimate Support: A further dip may take the price towards Ultimate Support at 2734.375.
3. Continued Bullish Momentum: After testing these support levels, the price is expected to resume its upward trend, with a potential breakout beyond the Resistance Zone, targeting the Extreme Overbought Zone.
Key Levels to Watch:
• Support: 2714.844
• Ultimate Support: 2734.375
• Retracement Level: 2739.624
• Overbought Zone: 2754.116
• Extreme Overbought: 2758.565
• Resistance: 2758.565
Overall Trend:
The overall trend remains bullish, with expectations of continued upward movement following any short-term pullbacks.
This analysis combines technical patterns, volume insights, and trend direction to provide a comprehensive outlook. Happy trading!
Gold finds a bottom price following sell!
Gold and even more so Silver were very overbought in the Daily & Weekly Timeframes, triggering their sell-offs within an hour of FOMC reducing interest rates.
I was aware that Gold / Silver were very overbought in these higher-time-frames but I was not watching the indicators so I was also caught off-guard as the Gold-price slides very fast.
The Gold-price has recently found a bottom price and has rebalanced and corrected the overbought condition.
EURUSD showing weakness in early Oceania trade in NZ Monday.
An hour into trading of the New Zealand Oceania & Asian session, the week opener, EURUSD is already showing weakness. I see a good short trade here across the Asian session and possibly running into European & New York session.
On the flip-side, there is also weakness in the USD, see my recent chart on USDX. However, I don't see this real weakness playing out in the USD until mid-week or perhaps Tuesday. USDX is under it's moving averages on the daily timeframe, last Thursday it retreated harshly following a bullish Heads 'n' Shoulders pattern on the 1HR chart.
Cheers,
Chris
Potential Buy OrderSummary
The analysis reveals an upward trend in the exchange rate. The recent drop was expected due to overbought conditions, with prices now recovering towards the resistance level at 163.25. The Fibonacci analysis indicates significant support levels at 157.35, while resistance is identified at 162.00. Technical indicators suggest that it is too early to place safe buy orders.
Trend Determination
The direction of the exchange rate in recent times is depicted by the primary upward trend channel that has formed, with price movements occurring in the middle zone. The channel's range is approximately 1200 pips, with the price distance from the upper resistance limit being 600 pips and from the lower limit 600 pips.
In a shorter time frame, a secondary upward trend channel is observed. The price trajectory is upward, with movements recorded in the lower zone of the trend channel. The secondary channel's range is 525 pips, with the price distance from the upper resistance limit being 485 pips and from the lower limit 40 pips.
The recent drop in the exchange rate was expected as prices had reached overbought levels. This increases the likelihood of the price moving higher. The first resistance level is set at 163.25, and the support level is at 152.60.
Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
The Fibonacci Retracement analysis shows that the recent downtrend was a corrective move. Specifically, the exchange rate halted at 157.35 and is now moving upwards. This point is a significant support level, and its potential breach could start a downward trajectory. Additional support levels are observed at 156.20 and lower at 154.74.
Currently, there is no clear confirmation for future price rises, as movements between 157.35 and 158.96 make drawing conclusions difficult. Placing trades while the exchange rate moves within these prices carries very high risk. Safer trading positions appear to be above 159.96 for buy orders and below 156.20 for sell orders.
Fibonacci Expansion
Additional resistance levels, using Fibonacci Expansion, are identified at 159.96, 162.00, and 164.34 – 163.63. The latter, as shown in the chart, might be a significant resistance level, as two resistance levels from different Fibonacci Expansions converge.
Technical Indicator Analysis
Moving Averages
Currently, the exchange rate prices are between the moving averages. This indicates that it is still too early to place buy orders.
MACD
The MACD is moving positively in a downward direction. The divergence observed between the exchange rate prices and the MACD results was confirmed by the recent corrective downtrend. At present, the indicator's results do not support placing a buy order.
Future Movement Scenarios
Scenario A
The first scenario concerns the potential upward movement of prices. Confirmation of this scenario comes from two factors. The first is the upward breakout of the moving average from the price. The second is the exchange rate moving above 159.96. The first resistance level is at 163.25, followed by 164.34. The reversal point is placed relatively lower at 157.35.
Stance: Neutral | Outlook: BUY | Risk for placing orders: Moderate
Entry Point: > 160.00 | Target: 163.25 | Down Limit: 157.35
Scenario B
The possibility of a continued downtrend can occur if the exchange rate moves below 156.20. In this case, the trajectory needs to be reassessed.
EURCHF | Short H1 | Market Exec | Taking a Safe Haven TradeTechnical Confluences for Trade:
- Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on H4 & D1 time-frame
- Price action is at a Consolidation/Supply area
- Price action may reverse towards the lower Consolidation/Demand area
Suggested Trade:
Entry @ Area of Interest 0.9815 -0.9835
SL @ 0.9879
TP 1 @ 0.9767 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved)
TP 2 @ 0.9707
Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 2.00 (Depending on Entry Level)
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USDJPY return to meanAs I have said before, vying for 152+ is pure mental illness borne out of greed and brain-to-bull-market replacement.
Times of easy money off longing the dollar are over. CPI has shown this. The only things still up are fuel and rent, and arguably so.
As with anything, zoom out before you get excited and lose money. This is the only PSA I will leave here for a CONSIDERABLE time being.
Bitcoin(BTC): We Are Going Towards Re-Test ZoneSince yesterday, we have been having a nice movement so far toward our major resistance zone, potentially fulfilling that re-test we have been waiting for!
We are aiming here to see the price hover near this zone and open a nice mid-term short position with some major targets and FVG zones to be filled during that movement we are looking for!
Swallow Team
BTC to see SHARP MASSIVE HUGE pullback in next 48 hoursHello everyone! With BTC having a run like it has in such a short amount of time, a logical trader knows that a price correction is massively over due.
Using my technical analysis, I have calculated the price of BTC to drop down, within the next 48 hours. Not long after it will bounce back up but not before it goes back down quite a bit.
This is just my technical analysis, and although I am a pro, I do not offer ANY financial advice.
NFA!
AAPL's Overbought Indicators Hint at Possible CorrectionCurrently, Apple Inc. (AAPL) shares are presenting intriguing signals for discerning investors. Two key technical indicators, Stochastic RSI and MACD, provide indications that AAPL may have reached a point of overbought conditions.
Stochastic RSI, serving as a measure of market saturation, highlights AAPL's overbought condition, suggesting that the price has likely reached a level prone to correction or decline. Furthermore, MACD shows negative divergence, indicating the potential weakening of the upward momentum in prices.
It is essential to direct attention to the Support and Resistance level (SNR) around 182.34. This level not only boasts a strong history as a previous resistance level but may also play a significant role as a support level.
However, it is crucial to bear in mind that trading always involves risk, and trading decisions should be based on comprehensive analysis and well-calculated risk assessments.
#OIL selling opportunityHi dear traders and colleagues, lets look at oil and see if there is any selling opportunity in this commodity or not.
As you can see on the chart we have done a research and find out that any time when stochastic indicator is in overbought in Weekly timeframe and cross below cross below its signal line we have seen a bearish move by the price.
Other things that gives us more confluences to take this trade is the fact that price currently is testing resistance area and also close to tentative bearish trendline.
from fundamentally perspective also we know although we shortage supply by the side of suppliers especially from Saudi Arabia but the fact that we are close to the end of hiking cycle by the central banks and as a result we can see some damages in economic which cause lower demand for the oil.
These are all showing that at least having a bearish correction move in Oil prices is possible and even if price wants to go higher we can have correction from this area.
VRAUSDT Looking Severely OverboughtA potential Reversal on VRAUSDT is imminent as things are looking incredibly overbought at the moment.
To further back the point of a potential reversal, Bitcoin, which leads the crypto market, is also looking oversold.
On higher timeframes, a reversal has not been signaled yet, but things are also looking oversold.
There can be a potential short squeeze before making it's way down.
This is not financial advice, all ideas are for educational purposes only.
A Negative Month at these Levels Could Signal NVDA Down to $196We are at a point where NVDA is trading at a Macro Monthly Bearish ABCD PCZ and all the Oscillators are sitting in overbought zones. If NVDA sees a negative monthly candle at these levels, it is very likely that these Oscillators will begin to come down again and signal Potential Bearish Action ahead; if we get such a signal at these levels, then I would typically aim for it to go back down to the level of C of the ABCD as a Minimum Target; but given how high this is and how profitable even a 61.8% retrace would be, I will opt to target the 61.8% retrace instead down at $196.32 as it nicely fits into my typical 3:1 risk to reward requirement.
$SPY: 50%-61.8% Retrace Seems Likely Before Continuation HigherThe SPY seems likely to pull back to the levels of $420 to $400 before it can later decide whether it wants to continue the overall Bullish Trend to all-time highs. In the meantime, we are dealing with Double Bearish Divergence on the MACD, Overbought Conditions on the RSI, and a Bearish Engulfing Candle on the 4 Hour all while trading at the 1.13 Retrace of the local range it just broke out of.
Short-Term Technical Analysis:(GOOGL) for the Next Few Weeks!In this trading idea, we delve into the current state of Google (GOOGL) and explore the indications of an overbought condition. With a careful examination of technical indicators, it becomes apparent that a sell-off may be imminent in the near term. The analysis suggests the possibility of Google entering a range-bound phase or even experiencing a continued downward trend. Traders and investors should pay close attention to key support levels as the stock navigates through the next zone, as they may provide valuable insights for potential entry or exit points
BTCUSD Ready to exit this big diamondBTCUSD reached further the supply area in overbought condition. A potential decrease of 7% can occur if the price action interact with the anchored VWAP from ATH. This potential movement can ignite an impulsive 5-wave bearish exiting of this big diamond pattern, which is likely complete.
Fisher Transform suggests the direction of the price action in 2H and 1D timeframes. Overbought condition on macro scenario, in which the price seems to be form a top, ready to a swing downward to complete a 5th wave of a expanded ending diagonal, likely to finish the actual bearmarket.
INDUS - overbought at the resistanceWhat we can see on the chart is that the price of the stock is overbought.
The price is above the upper Bollinger Band, and also the stochastic shows us overbought conditions (above 80).
The price currently is at the resistance, therefore it would be the entry for the short position. Stop loss and target are shown on the chart.
SGFY: Sell the rumour, buy the news!Signify Health
Short Term - We look to Sell at 29.83 (stop at 33.46)
There is market rumour that Amazon, United Health and CVS are interested in buying this company. This led to a surge in the stock in premarket. We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. Bespoke resistance is located at 30.00. Selling spikes offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 20.04 and 18.00
Resistance: 30.00 / 34.00 / 40.00
Support: 20.00 / 16.00 / 12.00
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Be prepared to short a cross over of the MACD on Nasdaq Futures.In spite of all major economic indicators showing a rapid decay of conditions and inflation showing no signs of letting up, the market continues its rally, now into its 7th week. Nasdaq investors seem particularly focused on buying, even under selloff pressure. This is what I call a zombie market. It's hard to wrap ones head around why the market continues higher, except to recognize too much liquidity in the market and stock purchases made in desparation, for lack of a better word.
With consumer sentiment at all time lows, and concerns within the market, this market is setting itself up for a rapid downward move to the lows. Be cautious and wait for the MACD to cross, before you look for your set up to short. In the mean time, I would wait for a one day pullback to relieve the overbought condition and go long, using stops to make sure you're not caught in a huge plummet downward, which can come at any time in my opinion.
If you do not use the MACD, an approximation would be 3 consecutive closes down and a failed rally on the daily to short.
Note: We are in a bull market, regardless what the news says every day. its contrary to what makes sense. I would not recommend any long position, other than intraday trading with stops. This market will resume the down trend eventually, unless by some miracle, the economy recovers.